MY 2018 NFL PROJECTIONS

1-32 RANKING, ODDS FOR SUPER BOWL

Despite losing the Super Bowl to the Nick Foles-led Eagles and despite an offseason filled with questions about stability at the top of the organization, the Patriots remain the best team in the NFL and the favorite to win Super Bowl LIII, according to our FPI projections with 100 days to go until the regular season.

But this isn't a repeat of last season, when we considered the Patriots the runaway top team in the NFL to the point that they had a coin-flip chance to reach the Super Bowl.

This time around, New England may still be the best, but it is really a part of a three-team tier of the NFL's elite. The other two teams to make up the league's upper crust? The Eagles and Steelers.

So what makes the FPI like the Patriots, Eagles and Steelers? You can read more about the process here, but the model considers each team's win total at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, how that team performed on offense, defense and special teams last season, how many starters are returning, and who the starting and backup quarterbacks are. FPI's full list of ratings and projections can always be found here.

The Eagles finished last season first in total efficiency across the game's three phases, but despite that and the fact that Brady is 40 years old, New England grabbed the top spot in part due to its higher Vegas win total.

It's also no surprise that the Patriots, Steelers and Eagles are also the three most likely teams to win the Super Bowl.

BEST CHANCE TO WIN SUPER BOWL
New England Patriots	18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	14%
Philadelphia Eagles	11%
Minnesota Vikings	6%
Green Bay Packers	6%
MOST LIKELY SUPER BOWL MATCHUPS
New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles	6%
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Pittsburgh Steelers	5%
New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings	4%
New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers	4%
New Orleans Saints vs. New England Patriots	4%

The Patriots are still No. 1, however, and are part of five of the six most likely Super Bowl combinations.

IS THE NFC THE NEW WESTERN CONFERENCE?

The FPI started making preseason projections in 2015, and since then the conference divide within the top 10 of its rankings has been fairly even (6/4 splits in 2017 and 2015 with an even 5/5 divide in 2016). The balance of power for the 2018 season looks a little more like the NBA, with the NFC playing the role of the Western Conference.

The NFC owns eight of the top 10 teams and nine of the top 12 in the FPI's initial iteration. The configuration is a little different when compared to the NBA's Western Conference as there is no Warriors-like overwhelming title favorite in the NFC, but the depth at the top overall is quite similar.

All four divisions in the NFC have a team that ranks within the FPI's top six, with multiple representatives from the NFC West (Rams second, 49ers 10th) and NFC North (Vikings fifth, Packers seventh) inside the top 10.

The AFC does boast two of FPI's top three teams in New England and Pittsburgh, but you have to go down all the way to No. 14 to get a representative from the other two divisions (Los Angeles Chargers at 11 and Jacksonville Jaguars at 14). The AFC also holds the dubious distinction of being home to four of the five teams at the bottom of the rankings, including each of the bottom three.

This results in a wide-open race for the Super Bowl in the NFC, where five teams are all given a 10 percent chance or better at making the Super Bowl, compared to just two in the AFC.

WHO WILL MAKE THE JUMP TO THE POSTSEASON?

Every year since the 12-team playoff format started in 1990, at least four teams have reached the postseason that failed to do so the year before. If that pattern were to hold true in 2018, the most likely teams to ascend to the playoffs are the Packers, Chargers, Texans and 49ers.

It's easy to determine what the model sees in those four teams. The Packers' level of play dropped off when they were forced to put Brett Hundley under center, but with Aaron Rodgers back to normal health, they are a prime candidate to return to the postseason. Los Angeles was frankly good enough to get in last year -- FPI actually considered the Chargers the fourth-best team in the league by the end of the season -- but likely just fell on the wrong side of some random variance. The Texans received extraordinary play from Deshaun Watson when healthy (Total QBR of 81.3), and with the model assuming normal health for the former Clemson QB, Houston has a 30 percent chance to win the AFC South. And quite clearly, the 49ers are a different team after acquiring Jimmy Garoppolo midway through last season.

2018 FOOTBALL POWER INDEX PROJECTIONS
Team	Wins	Playoffs	Division	Reach SB	Win SB
New England Patriots	10.5	89%	83%	32%	18%
Pittsburgh Steelers	10.0	80%	65%	24%	14%
Philadelphia Eagles	9.9	74%	62%	20%	11%
Green Bay Packers	9.5	61%	41%	12%	6%
Minnesota Vikings	9.4	60%	40%	12%	6%
Los Angeles Rams	9.2	58%	45%	12%	6%
New Orleans Saints	9.2	55%	36%	11%	6%
Atlanta Falcons	9.0	51%	32%	8%	4%
Carolina Panthers	8.8	46%	27%	6%	3%
Los Angeles Chargers	8.7	54%	37%	8%	4%
San Francisco 49ers	8.7	46%	32%	7%	3%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.6	51%	33%	7%	3%
Jacksonville Jaguars	8.5	50%	35%	7%	3%
Dallas Cowboys	8.5	41%	25%	5%	2%
Houston Texans	8.4	47%	30%	4%	2%
Baltimore Ravens	8.4	46%	24%	6%	2%
Tennessee Titans	8.2	43%	27%	4%	2%
Seattle Seahawks	7.9	31%	19%	3%	1%
Oakland Raiders	7.9	36%	20%	3%	1%
Detroit Lions	7.7	25%	13%	2%	1%
Denver Broncos	6.9	20%	10%	1%	0%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.9	18%	8%	1%	<1%
Buffalo Bills	6.9	19%	8%	1%	<1%
Chicago Bears	6.8	12%	6%	1%	<1%
Indianapolis Colts	6.8	17%	9%	1%	<1%
Washington Redskins	6.7	13%	7%	1%	<1%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.5	10%	5%	<1%	<1%
New York Giants	6.5	10%	6%	<1%	<1%
Miami Dolphins	6.3	13%	6%	1% <1%
New York Jets	6.1	10%	4%	<1%	<1%
Arizona Cardinals	6.1	7%	4%	<1%	<1%
Cleveland Browns	5.7	7%	3%	<1%	<1%

• Though the Jets have the worst FPI rating in the league, it's the Cardinals that actually are the longest shot to reach the postseason. The Jets have the benefit of playing in the same division as two other weak teams: the Dolphins and Bills. The Browns also are expected to be a worse team than Arizona but have an easier schedule. All three teams have a fair amount of uncertainty at quarterback, with a first-round rookie currently slated as the backup in the model.

• The Packers rank seventh in the FPI overall, but actually have the second-best chance (19 percent) to land the No. 1 seed in the stacked NFC, behind only the Eagles (23 percent). That's because Green Bay is the beneficiary of the eighth-easiest schedule in the league. Green Bay (41 percent) narrowly is the favorite to win the NFC North over the Vikings (40 percent).

• Aside from the Packers, there is only one other team favored by the FPI to win its division that didn't win it last year: the Chargers (37 percent), who edge out the Chiefs (33 percent).

THE RAMS' RESTOCKED DEFENSE

In addition to rating and ranking teams, the FPI also evaluates all three phases of the game for each team.

2018 FPI UNIT RATINGS

TEAM	OFF. RATING	RANK	DEF. RATING	RANK	ST RATING	RANK
New England Patriots	5.0	2	-0.3	17	0.3	6
Philadelphia Eagles	2.9	6	1.7	5	0.1	13
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.1	3	0.3	12	0.2	10
Los Angeles Rams	1.3	10	2.4	2	0.0	16
Minnesota Vikings	-1.0	20	4.8	1	-0.2	24
New Orleans Saints	5.6	1	-2.2	32	0.2	8
Green Bay Packers	3.6	5	-0.4	18	0.1	15
Atlanta Falcons	3.7	4	-1.4	27	0.4	2
Carolina Panthers	0.8	11	1.2	7	0.2	9
San Francisco 49ers	1.4	9	0.4	11	0.0	18
Los Angeles Chargers	1.7	8	0.5	10	-0.5	29
Dallas Cowboys	2.3	7	-1.1	25	0.3	7
Kansas City Chiefs	-0.4	17	1.3	6	0.4	4
Jacksonville Jaguars	-0.5	19	1.8	4	-0.2	22
Baltimore Ravens	-1.5	21	1.2	8	0.9	1
Seattle Seahawks	-0.1	15	0.6	9	0.0	17
Detroit Lions	0.4	13	-0.4	19	0.1	14
Oakland Raiders	0.5	12	-0.9	24	0.2	12
Houston Texans	0.1	14	-0.2	16	-0.2	23
Tennessee Titans	-0.3	16	-0.5	20	0.4	5
Washington Redskins	-1.9	23	0.1	14	-0.4	27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	-0.5	18	-1.7	28	-0.5	28
Denver Broncos	-3.9	32	2.0	3	-0.7	31
Chicago Bears	-2.9	28	0.3	13	0.0	20
Cincinnati Bengals	-1.7	22	-0.8	22	-0.3	26
New York Giants	-2.2	25	0.0	15	-0.8	32
Buffalo Bills	-2.4	26	-0.9	23	0.2	11
Indianapolis Colts	-1.9	24	-1.9	30	0.4	3
Arizona Cardinals	-3.1	30	-0.6	21	-0.1	21
Miami Dolphins	-3.2	31	-1.3	26	0.0	19
Cleveland Browns	-2.8	27	-1.8	29	-0.5	30
New York Jets	-3.0	29	-2.0	31	-0.2	25

After finishing last season as the FPI's top defense, it's no surprise to see the Vikings as the No. 1 defense heading into the 2018 season. The big surprise comes at No. 2, where the Rams make the jump after finishing last season as the 11th-ranked defensive unit (and the eighth-most efficient). It's a good example of the way in which FPI works: Though the model doesn't explicitly consider the substantial acquisitions of non-quarterbacks such as Aqib Talib, Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Brandin Cooks (and the departure of players like Trumaine Johnson), those changes are in some way reflected in the team's Vegas win total. If the betting market believes a team improved over the offseason, the increase in rating is distributed to each side of the ball based on what it already knows about that team's strengths and weaknesses.

Because the FPI remains somewhat skeptical of Jared Goff -- the former Calquarterback improved after a disastrous rookie campaign but still finished only 16th in Total QBR last year -- it makes the assumption that more of the improvement is coming on the defensive side of the ball.

Other notable takeaways from individual unit strengths:

• The FPI is not buying the Saints' defensive resurgence, as the model has pegged New Orleans as having the worst defense in the NFL, though it remains a top contender because it has the best offense. All last season, the model thought the praise being heaped on the New Orleans defense was a bit overstated, though it is somewhat surprising to see the defense ranked this low.

• Last year the FPI anticipated the Broncos' decline. Now, it still believes that the Broncos' defense is excellent (No. 3 overall), but it's not buying the addition of Case Keenum as a major improvement to their offense. Because Keenum is a quarterback, he is specifically factored into the Broncos' rating, but nonetheless the model sees Denver as having the worst offense in the NFL. Though Keenum finished second in Total QBR last season with a 69.7, the FPI looks at his entire body of work throughout his career, which is much more mediocre (career QBR of 52.0). In addition, the model is slightly less confident in quarterbacks like Keenum, Kirk Cousins and Alex Smith this year because they switched teams in the offseason.

TEXANS, BUCS ON OPPOSITE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE POLES

Basic strength of schedule formulas based on wins and losses from the previous season really don't do the statistic justice. The very idea of strength of schedule is exactly the reason why we ought to know that opponents' records aren't a good measure of their strength -- who knows how good the teams were that the opponents played, and so on, and so on ...

Fortunately, the FPI is here to help. And there can be some large discrepancies.

10 TOUGHEST 2018 SCHEDULES
TEAM	SOS RANK
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1
Los Angeles Rams	2
Arizona Cardinals	3
New York Giants	4
Washington Redskins	5
New Orleans Saints	6
Seattle Seahawks	7
Detroit Lions	8
Cleveland Browns	9
Carolina Panthers	10
10 EASIEST 2018 SCHEDULES
Team	SOS Rank
Houston Texans	32
New England Patriots	31
Tennessee Titans	30
New York Jets	29
Miami Dolphins	28
Buffalo Bills	27
Indianapolis Colts	26
Green Bay Packers	25
Baltimore Ravens	24
Pittsburgh Steelers	23

For example: The Packers have the toughest strength of schedule in the traditional calculation. But their schedule is ranked only 25th in difficulty according to the FPI because they play teams like the Bills (nine wins last year) and the Cardinals (eight), whom we expect to be much worse than their win totals a season ago.

• It's interesting to note that the Giants, who are coming off a 3-13 campaign but are sticking with Eli Manning and trying to win now, face the fourth-toughest schedule in the league.

• The Patriots have the second-easiest schedule, thanks in part to playing in a division with three other teams that all rank 27th or worse in the FPI.

BROWNS ON THE CLOCK, AGAIN?

New quarterbacks, same results?

After a winless 2017 campaign, the FPI has labeled the Browns as the most likely team to earn the No. 1 pick in the 2019 draft, though frankly, a lot of the factors involved in that prediction can change substantially. Despite having Tyrod Taylor -- whom the model likes -- as their likely starter to begin the season, the Browns have a 14 percent chance to earn the top pick in the 2019 draft.

For Browns fans looking for some hope, there's this: The FPI currently considers Baker Mayfield the backup and treats all rookie quarterbacks the same. That's because there's quite a bit of uncertainty about quarterbacks who have never taken a snap in the NFL, but it also means that if Mayfield plays and plays effectively, that projection can change in a hurry. Of course, there's no guarantee that will happen.

TEAM	NO. 1 CHANCE	TOP-5 CHANCE
Cleveland Browns	14%	48%
New York Jets	12%	43%
Arizona Cardinals	9%	37%
Miami Dolphins	9%	37%
New York Giants	7%	31%
Indianapolis Colts	6%	28%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6%	29%
Washington Redskins	6%	27%
Cincinnati Bengals	5%	27%
Chicago Bears	5%	27%

The Jets are in a similar situation, with Josh McCown labeled as the starter and Sam Darnold set as the backup. In the FPI's opinion, the Jets would be best off with Teddy Bridgewater starting under center, though it doesn't explicitly consider Bridgewater's injury.

IS IT LIGHTS OUT FOR TEAMS THAT LOSE TOP QBS?

At one point this offseason, a Tom Brady retirement seemed at least plausible. Had Brady actually hung it up, would the Patriots have been the Super Bowl favorites that they are today? Would they still win the AFC East?

With the help of the FPI, the answer to those questions: no and maybe, respectively.

We ran the model in a world where Brady called it quits, and not only were the Patriots no longer the best team in football ... but they fell all the way 18th. In the scenario, New England still had a 55 percent chance to win its division -- it helps to have just about the most feeble competition possible -- but only a 3 percent shot to win the Super Bowl (down from 18 percent in actuality).

And that got us thinking, with FPI able to move quarterbacks around, what other alternative realities could we imagine?

For example, staying in the AFC East ... what if the Jets had won the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes?

They'd be better, that's for sure. But according to the FPI: still bad. Don't get us wrong: The FPI thinks Cousins is a good deal better than McCown or Darnold, but the quarterback is only one piece of the puzzle. Even with Cousins wearing green and white, the Jets would still be the 30th-ranked team and would have only a 16 percent chance to reach the playoffs (up from 10 percent).

What if we know Carson Wentz is healthy to start the season?

Or in Week 5? Or Week 10? We'll sum it up like this: The difference in the Eagles' chances to win, in the model's mind, between Wentz and Nick Foles is generally about 4 percentage points per game. After all, we've seen that Foles is a capable fill-in. In Week 1, we give Philadelphia a 65 percent chance to beat Atlanta with Wentz under center and a 61 percent with Foles.

But all those percentage points do add up: We would project over 10 wins with 16 games of Wentz, but 9.4 if all 16 are with Foles.

The gap between backup and starter isn't always so small. For example ...

How much better are the Colts with Andrew Luck than without him?

Quite a bit. The difference between him and Jacoby Brissett hovers around 11 percentage points per game. The Colts are about a seven-win team with Luck and just better than a five-win team with Brissett, so there's a real difference there. Luck is held in high esteem by the FPI, but, similar to the aforementioned Jets scenario, he isn't the only part of the equation. In order for the Colts to be playoff contenders, they'll need more than just Luck's health to break in their favor.

PREDICTING THE GAMES OF THE YEAR

A season ago the Patriots and Steelers squared off in what many presumed would be a precursor to a playoff showdown between the two teams. It never happened. But we will get another game between New England and Pittsburgh -- in Week 15, no less -- this season. And according to our pregame matchup quality metric, which considers the quality of the two teams in the contest, that is the best game of the year.

Visitor	Home	Week	Matchup quality	Home team wins
Patriots	Steelers	15	78.3	58%
Vikings	Eagles	5	75	61%
Eagles	Saints	11	75	57%
Steelers	Saints	16	74.9	56%
Vikings	Packers	2	73.4	58%
Visitor	Home	Week	Playoff leverage	Home team wins
Rams	49ers	7	49.90%	53%
49ers	Rams	17	49.30%	65%
Cowboys	Eagles	10	49.20%	74%
Jaguars	Texans	17	48.60%	55%
Falcons	Panthers	16	48.20%	57%

But in terms of playoff chances, Patriots-Steelers is not actually the most important game of the year. For that, we can look at leverage -- the percentage chance to reach the playoffs each team can gain or lose depending on the result. And if we look at that, we get a whole different set of games with high stakes to look forward to in the upcoming year.

NATIONAL LEAGUE NEWS AND NOTES

CONTENDERS MONITORING INJURIES, RETURNS

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Right fielder Gregory Polanco will miss the rest of the season because of a bone bruise in his left knee and will be replaced primarily by rookie Jordan Luplow. Polanco was injured Sept. 7 when he slid awkwardly into second base while legging out a double. Polanco is leading the team in home runs (23), RBI (81) and extra-base hits (61) while batting .254 in 130 games.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

Right-hander Brad Boxberger was removed from the closer role after giving up six runs in two innings in his first four September appearances. Manager Torey Lovullo said he will choose a closer based on matchups instead.

ATLANTA BRAVES

Ronald Acuna Jr. didn’t become the leadoff hitter until July 20, but by Sept. 5 he already had led off eight games with home runs, the franchise record for a season. He was one short of Chris Young’s major league rookie record, set in 2007, when he had 84 games in the leadoff spot. Acuna’s eight home runs came in 44 leadoff starts.

CHICAGO CUBS

Closer Brandon Morrow threw from a mound Sept. 9 for the first time since going on the disabled list July 16 because of a strained right biceps. However, the team is unsure whether he will be able to return this season. Pedro Strop has been filling in as closer.

CINCINNATI REDS

Right-hander Homer Bailey was dropped from the rotation after going 1-14 with a 6.09 ERA in 20 starts. The Reds were 1-19 when he pitched. The Reds considered moving Bailey, making $21 million this season in the fifth year of a six-year, $105 million contract, to the bullpen, but he does not feel capable of pitching in relief. Tyler Mahle took Bailey’s spot in the rotation.

COLORADO ROCKIES

Kyle Freeland probably won’t win the Cy Young award but deserves consideration. Hehas a 2.21 ERA at Coors Field this year. His 2.91 ERA overall is fourth when adjusted for league and ballpark.

❚ Nolan Arenado said his balky throwing shoulder won’t be 100 percent until the offseason, but it doesn’t affect his hitting.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

Ross Stripling stands to ramp up his workload this week as a reliever. An All-Star starter this season, he came off the disabled list last week and faced two Rockies hitters Sept. 7. He registered his fastest clocking (95.4 mph) since April.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Left-hander Gio Gonzalez, acquired from Washington on Aug. 31, won his Brewers debut Sept. 8, holding the Giants to one unearned run and three hits in 5 2 / 3 innings. Gonzales showed no rustiness despite having not pitched since Aug. 29, when he was hammered for six runs in five innings by the Phillies.

MIAMI MARLINS

Rookie center fielder Lewis Brinson, who struggled badly in the first half of the season and then spent nearly two months on the disabled list, had four multihit games in his first week off the DL. “I want to just kind of be the player that I know that I’m supposed to be and that I can be,” Brinson said.

NEW YORK METS

David Wright wants to play in a major league game before the end of the season, but the Mets were unwilling to commit to letting him do it. Assistant general manager John Ricco insisted that even though Wright was able to play in 12 minor league games on a rehab assignment, he was not yet physically ready to play even one game for a team that is out of the race.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

Third baseman Maikel Franco, among the Phillies’ leaders with 22 home runs, could return before the end of the season after an MRI showed no serious damage in his right wrist. Franco jammed the wrist on a swing in late August, and then went hitless in 13 at-bats before coming out of the lineup and seeing a specialist.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

After being out since May because of a sore elbow, righthander Adam Wainwright was scheduled to return to the rotation Sept. 10 for a start against the Pirates. But right-hander Michael Wacha (strained muscle in left side) is out for the season after he was scratched from a rehab start for Class AAA Memphis (Tennessee) because of soreness.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

Barring trades, a competition looms among several outfielders next year. Strong finishes by Hunter Renfroe and Franmil Reyes have broadened a group that includes Franchy Cordero, Manuel Margot, Travis Jankowski and perhaps Wil Myers and Francisco Mejia.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

There’s logic to returning Derek Holland to a rotation projected to include Madison Bumgarner, Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez, but Holland is due a raise on his $1.75 million salary. The staff’s innings leader, Holland is eligible for free agency.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

Closer Sean Doolittle, whose toe injury cost him two months on the disabled list, finally rejoined the active roster. Doolittle was 22-for-23 in saves with a 1.45 ERA when he was hurt. The Nationals bullpen had a 4.72 ERA and five blown saves while Doolittle was on the DL.

AMERICAN LEAGUE NEWS AND NOTES

RED SOX, YANKS QUESTION DONALDSON MOVE

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

Outfielder Adam Jones, who can be a free agent after the season, has been around long enough to know the importance of September games for a team that has been out of contention for several months. Sept. 9 marked the third game in a row and fourth time in seven games that Jones was out of the lineup. Manager Buck Showalter said Jones is healthy, and the veteran outfielder is sacrificing playing time to younger players who need the experience.

BOSTON RED SOX

The Red Sox are 5-10 in their last 15 games against Houston, including 3-4 this season. While that might be a concern for the playoffs, manager Alex Cora — Houston’s bench coach last season — said he’s not worried. “Hopefully we can fix it later on in the year,” he said.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Rookie right-hander Michael Kopech has a significant tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow and likely will require Tommy John surgery. Kopech, considered one of the game’s top prospects, felt discomfort in the elbow after allowing seven runs in 3 1 / innings in a loss to Detroit on Sept. 5.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

Third baseman Josh Donaldson was scheduled to be activated from the disabled list to make his Indians debut Sept. 11. The Athletic reported this week that the Red Sox and Yankees “voiced displeasure” about the fact that Donaldson was considered healthy enough to be exposed to waivers but then the Indians were allowed to put him back on the disabled list after they acquired him from the Blue Jays.

DETROIT TIGERS

Team television announcers Mario Impemba and Rod Allen were suspended for the remainder of the season by Fox Sports Detroit after getting into a fight in the broadcast booth before the Sept. 4 game against the White Sox at Chicago. The duo has worked together for 17 seasons. Matt Shepard is replacing Impemba on play by play, and former Tigers Kirk Gibson and Craig Monroe will split color commentator duties.

HOUSTON ASTROS

Third baseman Alex Bregman’s sizzling September is among the reasons Houston created distance in the AL West. Bregman reached base in 35 consecutive games, the most by an Astro since 2004, and became the 12th player in franchise history to reach 30 home runs in a season.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

Rookie right-hander Jorge Lopez gave the Royals something to think about for 2019 when he took a perfect game into the ninth inning Sept. 8 at Minnesota. Lopez walked Max Kepler to start the ninth, and then was lifted after giving up Robbie Grossman’s single. Acquired from the Brewers on July 27 in a trade for third baseman Mike Moustakas, Lopez is 2-3 with a 4.40 ERA.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS

Rookie right-hander Shohei Ohtani isn’t expected to return to the mound until 2020 with Tommy John surgery apparently the leading option to fix his right elbow after a short outing against the Astros. Ohtani has increased his role as the designated hitter, and his 19 home runs are the most ever by a Japanese rookie.

MINNESOTA TWINS

Right-hander Ervin Santana is unlikely to pitch again this season after having the first of three scheduled platelet-rich plasma injections in his right middle finger. Santana had surgery Feb. 6 to remove a calcium deposit and did not make his season debut until July 25, then had an 8.03 ERA in five starts. The Twins hold a $14 million option on Santana for 2019 with a $1 million buyout.

NEW YORK YANKEES

Aaron Judge appeared to be getting closer to a return from a broken right wrist when he took batting practice Sept. 10 at Target Field in Minneapolis and hit several home runs. But Judge said afterward that there still was some pain in the wrist, and manager Aaron Boone said it was unclear when Judge would be ready to face live pitching.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

Left-hander Brett Anderson (forearm) is close to returning to a rotation that is down to three starters because of injuries. Reliever Liam Hendricks made three starts in seven days.

SEATTLE MARINERS

With left-hander Marco Gonzales returning, the Mariners decided to switch to a sixman rotation in the season’s final weeks. Right-hander Felix Hernandez’s tight hamstring could change that plan, but it doesn’t appear he’ll miss a start.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

The Rays took an obvious unorthodox approach to pitching this season. Less obvious, perhaps, was their revised offensive approach compared to last season, increasing their overall average and stolen bases while lowering their home run and strikeout rate. That’s a stark contrast to most teams.

TEXAS RANGERS

Right-hander Bartolo Colon was removed from the rotation because the Rangers want to give rookie Adrian Sampson a look after he went 8-4 in Class AAA as a starter and reliever.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

Toronto has faced criticism from the players union and fans for not calling up top prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. this month. President Mark Shapiro said the decision to send Guerrero to the Arizona Fall League instead was purely a baseball one and not related to any desire to avoid starting the clock on Guerrero’s major league service time.

MLB SERIES TO WATCH THIS COMING WEEK

CARDINALS AT BRAVES (SEPT. 17-19)

It’s the start of a huge week for the Braves, who play their final seven regular-season home games against St. Louis and then the Philadelphia Phillies, their only competition for the National League East title. It’s also big for the Cardinals, whose strong second half has put them in playoff contention. The Braves swept a three-game series June 29-July 1 at Busch Stadium, just before Mike Shildt replaced Mike Matheny as the Cardinals manager.

MARINERS AT ASTROS (SEPT. 17-19)

Seattle had hoped to challenge Houston for the American League West title, but that’s no longer realistic and the Mariners’ fading wild-card hopes are almost kaput, too, as they wrap up their season series with the Astros. The teams have split 16 games this season, and that includes the Mariners’ four-game sweep last month at Houston as closer Edwin Diaz got the save in each of the victories. The Mariners face AL West teams in their final 17 games.

ROCKIES AT DODGERS (SEPT. 17-19)

The NL West and wild-card contenders have split their six games at Dodger Stadium, and “home run or bust” was the dominant theme. The Dodgers hit six homers but batted .192 with zero stolen bases. Their best hitter at home, where their OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) are 30 points below their road rate, is Max Muncy (18 homers, .979 OPS). The Rockies have batted .195 at Dodger Stadium with seven homers, including two apiece by Nolan Arenado and Ian Desmond.

CUBS AT DIAMONDBACKS (SEPT. 17-19)

The Cubs are looking to win their third consecutive NL Central title while the Diamondbacks are aiming for their first NL West crown since 2011. The teams split a four-game series in July at Chicago, and the final game was particularly memorable —David Bote and Anthony Rizzo hit back-to-back homers to give the Cubs a walkoff victory. Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt went 5-for-15 (.333) with one double and one home run, and Cubs shortstop Javier Baez was 3- for-10 (.300).

RED SOX AT YANKEES (SEPT. 18-20)

The Red Sox lead the season series 8-5 and have outscored the Yankees 81-62. But New York is 4-2 against Boston at Yankee Stadium, and with six games left in the season between the two AL East behemoths the Yankees still have time to catch the first-place Red Sox. Mookie Betts is batting .412 with two home runs, 10 RBI and 16 runs scored against the Yankees this season, while Giancarlo Stanton is hitting .408 with three homers, 10 RBI and 11 runs against Boston.

WHITE SOX AT INDIANS (SEPT. 18-20)

The Indians are cruising to their third consecutive AL Central title, while the rebuilding White Sox hope to be contenders once their youth movement comes to fruition. Chicago had its first winning month of the season in August, going 17-12, but has lost 10 of 13 to Cleveland this season. Indians third baseman Jose Ramirez is hitting .356 (16-for-45) with three doubles, five home runs and 10 RBI in the season series.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3

TOP 25 TV SCHEDULE AND PREDICTIONS

Week 3 of the College Football season is upon us and there’s an interesting slate of Top 25 action. Three matchups pit two ranked teams against one another.

We haven’t quite reached the point in the college football season where conference games are coming at us in waves, but the competition level is starting to increase dramatically. One look at the Top 25’s schedule this week and it’s obvious that the percentage of cupcake opponents is declining dramatically.

To that end, there are three games this week that sees two top 25 opponents playing against one another. LSU travels to Auburn in a terrific matchup of two SEC West foes. Boise State travels to Stillwater to take on Oklahoma State in a sneaky good game. Finally, Ohio State will travel to Arlington to take on Texas Christian. All three games should be appointment television this weekend.

All in all, it’s a solid set of games to watch this weekend. Read on to see the full slate of Top 25 action so you can plan your weekend viewing schedule. As always, our projected winners are in bold.

College football Week 3 Top 25 TV schedule (Sat, Sept. 15)

• No. 5 Oklahoma at Iowa State – Noon, ABC
• Kent State at No. 11 Penn State – Noon, Fox Sports 1
• No. 21 Miami at Toledo – Noon, ESPN2
• East Carolina at No. 13 Virginia Tech – 12:20 p.m., ACC Network
• UC Davis at No. 9 Stanford – 2 p.m., Pac-12 Network
• Vanderbilt at No. 8 Notre Dame – 2:30 p.m., NBC
• Georgia Southern at No. 2 Clemson – 3:30 p.m., ESPN2
• BYU at No. 6 Wisconsin – 3:30 p.m., ABC
• No. 12 LSU at No. 7 Auburn – 3:30 p.m., CBS
• No. 14 West Virginia at N.C. State – 3:30 p.m., ESPNU
• No. 17 Boise State at No. 24 Oklahoma State – 3:30 p.m., ESPN
• No. 19 Michigan vs. SMU – 3:30 p.m., Big Ten Network
• San Jose State at No. 20 Oregon – 5 p.m., PAC12
• No. 1 Alabama at Ole Miss – 7 p.m., ESPN
• Middle Tennessee at No. 3 Georgia – 7:15 p.m., ESPN2
• Louisiana at No. 16 Mississippi State – 7:30 p.m., SEC Network
• 4 Ohio State vs. 15 TCU (Arlington) – 8 p.m., ABC
• No. 22 USC at Texas – 8 p.m. FOX
• No. 10 Washington at Utah – 10 p.m., ESPN
• No. 23 Arizona State at San Diego State – 10:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network

This isn’t necessarily a weekend where you need to hide from your family in front of the television, but Saturday isn’t a day where you should commit to taking your kids to the museum either. There are plenty of quality games to hold your attention.

Let me know which game you’re most excited about. Is it one of the big time matchups against two ranked teams or do you prefer a potential upset? Let me know in the by going to garyldibertonsports.blogspot.com

MY COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 3 PREVIEW AN PREDICTIONS

UPSTART 2-0 TEAMS FACE MEASURING STICKS

GAMES TO WATCH IN WEEK 3:

VANDERBILT AT NO. 8 NOTRE DAME

SEPT. 15, 2:30 P.M. ET, NBC

LINE: Notre Dame by 14 1 ⁄ 2

Following their triumph over Michigan in Week 1, this would appear to be the type of game the Fighting Irish should handle with relative ease if they are in fact a top-10 team. But is it? The Commodores aren’t expected to contend for the SEC title, but they handled two opponents from Group of Five conferences with little drama.

Though Notre Dame struggled to put away Ball State last week, its defense will pose the biggest test Vandy senior QB Kyle Shurmur has faced this season. The Vandy defense has been stout, too, particularly on third down, and Irish QB Brandon Wimbush has a troubling ratio of one TD pass to four interceptions through two games.

PREDICTION: The script will be just about the same for Notre Dame against a team that’s too strong to get blown out but won’t have enough firepower to draw even late in the game. NOTRE DAME, 28-20

NO. 13 LSU AT NO. 7 AUBURN

SEPT. 15, 3:30 P.M. ET, CBS

LINE: Auburn by 10

The battle for supremacy in the hyper-competitive SEC West begins with this all-Tiger affair. Like some past meetings in this series, this year’s version has the makings of a classic defensive struggle that could turn on a single big play.

After a low-scoring escape against Washington, Auburn was able to work out some offensive kinks in a 63-9 win against Alabama State last week. Even so, QB Jarrett Stidham isn’t likely to get much ground support. The Bayou Bengals haven’t needed to use much of their offensive playbook thus far, but QB Joe Burrow will have to take more chances this week. He completed 10 of 20 passes for 151 yards and two TDs in a Sept. 8 win over Southeastern Louisiana.

PREDICTION: Touchdowns will be few and far between, but the home team should have just enough to get by. AUBURN, 16-10

NO. 17 BOISE STATE AT NO. 19 OKLAHOMA STATE

SEPT. 15, 3:30 P.M. ET, ESPN

LINE: Oklahoma State by 3 1 / 2

On the surface, this is the first true measuring-stick game for a pair of top-20 teams. But there’s a bit more to it for different reasons. Oklahoma State will have more opportunities for meaningful wins on its Big 12 schedule, but this contest will show the young Cowboys if they’re ready for those future tests. For the Broncos, the Mountain West favorites who are competing with every other Group of Five league contender for a spot in the big-money bowl rotation, this is their one and only shot at Power Five opponent.

Thus far against overmatched opposition, both offensive units have done as they’ve pleased. The only cause for concern for Cowboys QB Taylor Cornelius might be his six interceptions. Veteran Broncos QB Brett Rypien has been pick-free in his two outings this season, and he’ll need all his game experience in the hostile environs in Stillwater, Oklahoma.

PREDICTION: In a wild shootout, the more experienced playmakers will find a way to prevail on the road. BOISE STATE, 38-34

NO. 4 OHIO STATE VS. NO. 14 TCU IN ARLINGTON, TEXAS

SEPT. 15, 8 P.M. ET, ABC

LINE: Ohio State by 13

This de facto road game loomed as the most significant of the three games for which Buckeyes coach Urban Meyer would be suspended. But other than a few late points surrendered to Oregon State with the outcome long since determined, it’s hard to see how Ohio State’s first two outings without him on the sideline could have gone much better. The Horned Frogs haven’t looked quite as polished in their warm-up games, and they’ll have to be nearly flawless to pull off an upset here and announce that they are in fact going to pose a threat in the Big 12.

Similar to Alabama, the added dimension of a deep passing game brought by QB Dwayne Haskins has made an already strong Ohio State squad even more dangerous. TCU will have to hope its defense can limit big plays to give mobile QB Shawn Robinson chances to keep it close.

PREDICTION: Gary Patterson’s TCU teams are always playing better by season’s end, but the talent deficit for this young group of Horned Frogs will be too much to overcome.

OHIO STATE, 31-14

NO. 12 WASHINGTON AT UTAH

SEPT. 15, 10 P.M. ET, ESPN

LINE: Washington by 6

The Huskies got into the win column with a win over an FCS team (North Dakota) after coming up short against Auburn in Week 1. They now begin pursuit of the Pac-12 crown with what figures to be a challenging cross-divisional tilt with the Utes, who have hopes of being in the mix themselves in the South Division.

Utah hasn’t been flashy during its 2-0 start, but the defense has allowed a total of 16 points. The group isn’t likely to maintain that level of stinginess against Washington’s veteran backfield duo of QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin, so the Utes are going to need QB Tyler Huntley to provide some fireworks in the downfield game.

PREDICTION: Unlike two weeks ago when Washington was slow out of the gate, this time the Huskies will do enough after intermission to get out with a close win. WASHINGTON, 24-17