The NHL is a mysterious place. Look no further than the
Stanley Cup Final last season, which featured one team that previously couldn't
get past the second round winning the Cup over another team that didn't exist
before that season. If you successfully wagered a year ago on the Washington
Capitals and the Vegas Golden Knights as the last two teams standing and are
currently reading this ... congratulations on having such good Wi-Fi on your
private island.
With the 2018-19 season finally here, we decided to
investigate 31 mysteries surrounding the NHL's teams, players, coaches and
trends. Who thrives? Who fails? Are the Tampa Bay Lightning that good? Are the
Ottawa Senators that bad? And so on.
Here are 31 of the biggest mysteries of the 2018-19 season,
many of them sufficiently solved (we think).
CAN THE WASHINGTON CAPITALS REPEAT?
The Capitals are an interesting contender in the sense that
they return nearly the same team as the one that hoisted the Cup, minus a Jay
Beagle here, an Alex Chiasson there and, well, coach Barry Trotz, assistant
coach Lane Lambert and goalie whisperer Mitch Korn, which is significant. Can
Todd Reirden get them back to last season's heights? Better question: Can the
Capitals have another playoff run when Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas
Backstrom, John Carlson and Braden Holtby are all at the height of their
powers? If so, a repeat isn't out of the question.
WILL SIDNEY CROSBY ANSWER ALEX OVECHKIN'S STANLEY CUP WITH ANOTHER OF HIS
OWN?
Crosby's season ended May 7, which is a month earlier than
in the previous two seasons. It was an unsatisfactory end, as the Capitals
thwarted their Pittsburgh tormentors in a contentious series to advance. The
trinity of Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel give the Penguins a foundation
on which to build a winner, especially if goaltender Matt Murray bounces back.
But there are question marks, too, like the future for
ill-fitting Derick Brassard, the effectiveness of summer signing Jack Johnson and,
most important, the diminishing returns of Kris Letang. The Penguins are a
contender, but it'll take more than the return of "Dad" Matt Cullen
to return them to Cup glory.
WILL THE BUFFALO SABRES AND ARIZONA COYOTES MAKE THE LEAP?
The Sabres and Coyotes were Nos. 1 and 2 in our preseason
poll of players, coaches and executives whom we asked for their surprise teams
this season. Does "surprise" equate to "playoff spot"? In
Buffalo's case, it's plausible: The Sabres are an improved team, especially if
you believe Carter Hutton is the goods in goal and that the Jack Eichel-Jeff
Skinner partnership lifts them both to unforeseen offensive heights. But even
if you do, do you believe enough to buy into a 35-point improvement?
As for Arizona, the premium general manager John Chayka has
placed on speed -- personified by free-agent coup Michael Grabner -- means the
Coyotes are going to skate opponents out of the arena on some nights, while
Antti Raanta (healthy, one hopes) tries to live up to the promise of his limited
time last season. For both teams, I think this is their "taste of
contention" season before knocking the door down for a playoff spot in
2019-20. But if pressed, the Sabres have a better chance to break it down this
season, given their division, their conference and some dynamic players who
could turn the tide.
WHICH GOALIE BOUNCES BACK BIGGEST FROM A BAD SEASON?
Jake Allen (.906 save percentage), Cam Talbot (.908), Cory
Schneider (.907), Carey Price (.900) and, above everyone else, Scott Darling
(.888) would like a mulligan for last season. But the goalie who had middling
results who will bounce back the best could be Matt Murray of the Pittsburgh
Penguins, who was 27-16-3 with a .908 save percentage. He dealt with the
pressure of following up Stanley Cup wins, of being the reason Marc-Andre
Fleury was jettisoned to Vegas and the emotions after losing his father. The
Penguins will be a division-title contender, and Murray is positioned to remind
us that he's one of the league's elite young players.
IS THE PHILADELPHIA FLYERS' GOALTENDING A DISQUALIFIER?
Brian Elliott (.909 save percentage in 43 games) and Michal
Neuvirth (.915) were a stopgap tandem last season that didn't perform too
poorly when healthy. (The team's pedestrian .907 save percentage was the result
of 17 awful games in relief from Petr Mrazek.) They were serviceable enough to
get the Flyers into the playoffs last season, but the concern about them is
understandable.
This has led many Flyers fans to hope for that Jim Ross
moment -- "BAWH GAWD that's Carter Hart's music!" -- as the goalie of
the future comes up from the AHL and takes the crease.
WHAT DO TAYLOR HALL AND NATHAN MACKINNON DO FOR AN ENCORE?
Hall, the reigning Hart Trophy winner, had 93 points in 76
games last season for the Devils, or 13 more than his previous career high.
MacKinnon had 97 points in 74 games for the Avalanche, or 34 (!) more points
than his career high, set as a rookie in 2013-14. Both should be among the
league's elite offensive players this season, because it's no coincidence why
they blew up: Hall was given a franchise center in rookie Nico Hischier (52
points), while MacKinnon thrived on a dominating line with Mikko Rantanen and
Gabriel Landeskog. But if we had to pick who can continue on this trajectory in
2018-19, it would be MacKinnon.
CAN VEGAS OVERCOME THE LOSS OF PECULIAR CIRCUMSTANCES (AKA ARE THE
GOLDEN KNIGHTS FOR REAL, VOL. 10,000)?
The Knights had multiple motivations last season, from the
"Golden Misfits" thing to bonding with Las Vegas through unspeakable
tragedy to catching many opponents off-guard with their speed and, ahem, unique
home-ice advantages.
But mostly, they were just a darn good hockey team,
exponentially more talented than the expansion label would foretell. And since
then, they've gotten better: Paul Stastny and Max Pacioretty are a major
upgrade on the team's second line, especially defensively. Even if Marc-Andre
Fleury regresses, the Knights' depth will get them back to the playoffs. If
there's one lesson we should have learned about Vegas, it's that you bet
against the Knights at your own peril. The Golden Knights made the Stanley Cup
Final in their first season -- then added Max Pacioretty and Paul Stastny this
offseason. Jason Halstead/Getty Images
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM ILYA KOVALCHUK?
Kovalchuk appears to have lost a step, but he hasn't lost
his hands. In Anze Kopitar, he'll have the best center he's ever played with,
by his own admission. And he's going to be an absolute terror playing up top on
the power play with Drew Doughty. The 37 goals and 82 points of a 28-year-old
Kovalchuk are a distant memory, but if everything breaks right, could he still
hit 30 goals and 70 points?
CAN THE JOHN TAVARES MAPLE LEAFS END THE STANLEY CUP DROUGHT?
It's the season debut of the ESPN On Ice podcast, with Emily
Kaplan and Greg Wyshynski! Before conversations with Rod Brind'Amour (30:16)
and Isabelle Khurshudyan (1:02:08), Emily and Greg preview the Eastern (7:40)
and Western (38:50) conferences. Plus, we address another dangerous Tom Wilson
hit (1:13:53). Listen »
The gamble GM Kyle Dubas is making for the Leafs: that the
addition of Tavares to a team that has Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri
anchoring other lines is going to be so good up front that it'll drag an
average back end to the Stanley Cup. The Leafs don't have that
26-minute-per-playoff-game stopper that you typically need to win -- someone
like Drew Doughty or Duncan Keith, or, on the lower end of that scale, John
Carlson of the Capitals.
Their hope is that they can be like the 2016-17 Penguins,
winning with the sheer will of their leaders and stellar goaltending to
overcome the fact that Brian Dumoulin and Ron Hainsey (a current Leaf) led them
in ice time. The reality is that they'll discover the need for such a
defenseman when they fall short this postseason.
WHAT HOPE DO THE POST-TAVARES NEW YORK ISLANDERS HAVE?
Angst. Anger. A feeling of being overlooked by the hockey
world. And perhaps a feeling of betrayal after Tavares endorsed the Maple Leafs
as the better franchise through the signing of his free-agent deal. If they
could channel those emotions in a Golden Knights-like surge of cathartic
success -- led by a coach in Barry Trotz who was also disrespected -- that
would make the Islanders one of the best stories in hockey.
But the reality is that they have one blazing young star
(Mathew Barzal), a solid winger (Jordan Eberle), two guys they're praying
aren't just Tavares by-products (Anders Lee and Josh Bailey), a checking line
... and then not much else beyond Lou Lamoriello panic signings (Leo Komarov?
Really?) and specious goaltending.
WHAT CAN WE EXPECT FROM HENRIK LUNDQVIST AND CAREY PRICE, AKA BIG-NAME
GOALIES ON TEAMS WITH SMALL CHANCES?
Lundqvist is 36, and his save percentage has dropped to .915
or worse in the past two seasons. He's not The King anymore, winning games on
his own despite the team in front of him, but he still has above-average
stretches. That said, this is the thinnest defensive group he's played in back
of in quite some time, on a team in a self-declared rebuild.
Price, meanwhile, enters Year 1 of his eight-year, $84
million contract trying to prove that last season's 49-game bust (.900 save
percentage, minus-17.49 goals saved above average) was an anomaly, and that
he's still an elite goalie at 31. Price is one of the sole reasons to believe
the Canadiens will be something other than a basement-dweller. Well, that and
the fact that Ottawa still owns its franchise charter.
WILL THE OTTAWA SENATORS HANG ON TO MATT DUCHENE AND MARK STONE FOR A
FULL SEASON?
No and yes. Duchene might want to remain with Ottawa, but
Ottawa would do well to flip a player with no trade protection at the deadline,
especially when that player is a top-six center. This would require GM Pierre
Dorion to swallow his pride and receive a lesser return for Duchene than what
he anted up for him, but receiving less value than what's been traded is the
mission du jour for the franchise lately.
Stone has expressed an interest in staying in Ottawa, is
frankly a steadier player than Duchene and hasn't yet expressed a desire not to
be part of a rebuild. Keep him, build around him.
With some young talent on the roster like Brady Tkachuk,
there is hope for the future in Ottawa. The present? Yikes.
WHO FINISHES WITH THE WORST RECORD IN THE NHL?
The Senators are the overwhelming pick to be the NHL's worst
team, which is music to the ears of the Colorado Avalanche, who own their
first-round pick next June. In other words, there's no incentive to finish last
for Ottawa.
So, what if the Senators somehow didn't? Then you look at
other worst-in-the-NHL candidates. The Rangers and Canadiens have goalies who
might prevent a bottoming-out. The Canucks, when healthy, might be a peskier
team than many anticipate. The Blackhawks have this unfortunate thing called "pride"
getting in the way.
All of this leaves us with two other options: the John
Tavares-less New York Islanders and the Detroit Red Wings, both of whom could
use a franchise player and neither of whom has teams that are anywhere close to
contention. If we had to guess, we'll take the team without Mathew Barzal.
WHICH ROOKIE WILL MAKE THE BIGGEST IMPACT?
With due respect to the offensive potential of Elias
Pettersson, Andrei Svechnikov, Ryan Donato, Brady Tkachuk and Troy Terry (a
personal dark-horse Calder Trophy pick skating for the Ducks), Rasmus Dahlin
could be the best defenseman on the Sabres within weeks, and could be playing
big minutes by season's end. Yes, the defensive side is always a challenge for
a first-year player. No, he's not going to put up monster offensive numbers.
He's just going to be steady and competent, which are two things the Sabres
sure do need on the back end.
WHO WILL BE THE BIGGEST FREE-AGENT BUST?
Jay Beagle of the Vancouver Canucks. At least Antoine
Roussel brought a little more offensive potential and much better possession
metrics to the table when he signed his four-year deal with Vancouver. Beagle,
on the other hand, turns 33 this month and is a defensive grunt earning $4.4
million in base salary this season for fourth-line work. He also has
significant trade protection next season as well, when he'll make $3.2 million.
Great guy in the room, but this remains an odd signing for a rebuilding team --
unless the Canucks are hoping his Mario Kart expertise weens the youngsters off
of Fortnite.
WHICH PLAYER WILL HAVE A BREAKOUT SEASON?
Usually in these previews, the answers are guys who have
already broken out so the writer feels safe making the call and smart for
having made it. Ondrej Kase of the Anaheim Ducks isn't one of those guys, with
20 goals and 18 assists in 66 games. In fact, he probably only landed on some
radar screens when the Ducks inked him to a three-year extension this
offseason. Know this: He has tremendous chemistry with center Adam Henrique, an
explosive skill set and an outside chance at a 30-goal season.
WHICH PLAYER WILL BE THE MOST DISAPPOINTING?
William Karlsson had 21 goals in his first 183 games in the
NHL. He had 43 in 82 games with the Vegas Golden Knights last season. Look, I
believe in the Knights. And I believe Karlsson's line with Jonathan
Marchessault and Reilly Smith is the real deal. What I can't believe, however,
is that a player who had the highest shooting percentage (23.4) for any player
who appeared in 82 games over the past 20 years -- and, for the record, had the
third-highest in the past 30 years -- is going to pull that off in a second
consecutive season. Good player, love his defense ... but no.
WHICH COACHES COULD WIN THE JACK ADAMS?
As you know, there's a formula for these things. The award
usually goes to the coach whose team makes the most shocking move into playoff
contention from year to year. It can also go to the coach of the best team in
the NHL. It just so happens that Gerard Gallant, head coach of the Golden
Knights, was basically both of those things last season.
This season? Tampa Bay's Jon Cooper, Toronto's Mike Babcock
(who's never won it), San Jose's Peter DeBoer and Winnipeg's Paul Maurice are
contenders on the juggernaut side; Florida's Bob Boughner, Carolina's Rod Brind'Amour,
Calgary's Bill Peters, Buffalo's Phil Housley and Arizona's Rick Tocchet are
possibilities if any of their teams make the playoffs.
But one coach we have our eye on: Jim Montgomery of the
Dallas Stars, who made the leap from the college ranks after a successful run
at the University of Denver. Here's a coach who could not only take a lottery
team and make it a playoff team again, but could do so by bolstering its
offense. The Stars were 18th in the NHL last season in goals. A dramatic uptick
there would net him the Jack, whose voters love quantifiable improvements.
HAS BRAD MARCHAND CHANGED HIS WAYS?
After a postseason in which he [checks notes] licked the
faces of multiple opponents, the Bruins star winger vowed to change his
behavior so he could ascend to the levels of respect attained by teammates like
Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron.
But the Bruins, frankly, don't want Marchand to come off the
edge. Team president Cam Neely told the Boston Globe that it's more a matter of
impulse control than any sweeping behavioral change: "Playing a different
way isn't going to get him more ice time," he said.
There's a word for that:
enabling.
WILL ANYONE CARE
ABOUT THE OUTDOOR GAMES THIS SEASON?
Pop quiz, hot shot: Name the dates, locations and participants
of the NHL's outdoor games this season. The first one's easy: The Chicago
Blackhawks, making their record sixth appearance in an outdoor game, vs. the
Boston Bruins at Notre Dame in the Jan. 1 Winter Classic, because the
Blackhawks have camp there, so the NHL can sell a bunch of stuff with shamrocks
on it to Bostonians. The other one features the fifth appearance of the
Penguins in an outdoor game, this time against the Flyers at Lincoln Financial
Field in Philadelphia on Feb. 25, 2019, after the teams met at Heinz Field in
Pittsburgh last season.
Will anyone care? Last season's Winter Classic between the
Rangers and Bruins at Citi Field was the lowest-rated in the series on NBC, and
actually rated lower than two Stadium Series games. But Boston vs. Chicago
isn't Buffalo vs. New York, and Notre Dame certainly isn't Citi Field, so
expect an uptick in interest there. But is anyone amped to see the Penguins and
Flyers again, unless it includes a between-periods fight to the death between
mascots Iceburgh and Gritty, like they're gladiators in the Coliseum?
WHICH TEAM IS MOST LIKELY TO SURPRISE?
The Florida Panthers have hit 100 points once in franchise
history and have made the playoffs just five times since 1993. They came close
to accomplishing both last season, and should break through to accomplish it
this season.
However, a 96-point team making the playoffs in the
following season might not be what you'd consider a surprise, so how about
this: The Edmonton Oilers are going to muster enough goaltending and scoring
balance to allow Connor McDavid to drag them over the finish line and back into
the playoffs, with a 20-point improvement. And while this will be celebrated by
lovers of generational talents shining on the most important stage, it also
means GM Peter Chiarelli stays in a job. Sorry and congrats, Edmonton.
WHICH TEAM IS MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT?
This is all contingent on one's expectations. Would the
Avalanche missing the playoffs be a disappointment, considering they were on
the bubble last season and could then end up with two high lottery picks
(thanks, Ottawa!) in the process? Or what about the Devils and Kings, firmly on
the bubble last season?
No, it needs to be a team with lofty expectations and
frustratingly low returns, which focuses us on two teams: the Columbus Blue
Jackets, who are a talented group with some dark clouds about the future of
Artemi Panarin and Sergei Bobrovsky looming on the horizon, and the Anaheim
Ducks, dealing with the deteriorating bodies of their veterans in front of John
Gibson. So, in summary: Pray the goalie bails you out of the prison of your
problems.
CAN ERIK KARLSSON DELIVER A STANLEY CUP TO THE SAN JOSE SHARKS?
It's entirely possible. It's said that fortune favors the
bold, and few have been bolder than GM Doug Wilson over the past few years,
from the Martin Jones move to the Evander Kane deal to the blockbuster that
netted him Karlsson. There are still questions to be answered about the team's
bottom six -- and since the Sharks are capped out, those answers have to come
from within -- but having a defenseman the caliber of Karlsson, Brent Burns or
Marc-Edouard Vlasic on the ice for almost the entire game is an advantage few
teams outside of Nashville can boast. And give me Logan Couture on a prolonged
playoff run, please. That guy's a gamer.
ARE THE CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS NOW AN ALSO-RAN?
Sadly, yes. Unless there's something remarkable hidden in
the unremarkable roster that surrounds Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Duncan
Keith and whatever Corey Crawford ends up contributing this season, the
Blackhawks seemed destined for the lottery and, potentially, the basement
again. There's been more talent leaving -- Panarin, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Teuvo
Teravainen -- than coming back to Chicago of late. So celebrate, those who are suffering
from Blackhawks fatigue during this recent dynasty. We can hear the faint
sounds of Anna Kendrick's "Cups" playing, because you're going to
miss them when they're gone.
Well, it was a pretty great run while it lasted, Blackhawks
fans. AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh
WHICH CENTRAL DIVISION TITAN HAS THE BETTER SHOT AT THE CUP: NASHVILLE
OR WINNIPEG?
The answer would have been Winnipeg had the Jets convinced
Paul Stastny to stay as a free agent, or sufficiently replaced him. As it
stands, the centers are star Mark Scheifele followed by functional but not
exemplary pivots like Bryan Little, Jack Roslovic and Adam Lowry. Tell me that
GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has an in-season trade for, like, Matt Duchene up his
sleeve, and this is a different story. But for now, I'd give Nashville the nod,
thanks to that incredible blue line and that incredible top line ... even if
the playoff struggles of Pekka Rinne and Kyle Turris last season spook us a
bit.
DO THE TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING DESERVE ODDS-ON FAVORITE STATUS?
Yes. This is the moment that GM-turned-senior-advisor Steve
Yzerman was building toward, with a deep collection of impact forwards led by
Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov; a stout defense led by Norris Trophy winner
Victor Hedman and Ryan McDonagh; Andrei Vasilevskiy, who was outstanding in his
first season as a starter; and a coach in Jon Cooper who is among the NHL's
best. Every piece they need is here. It's just a matter of making them fit.
WILL THE CAROLINA HURRICANES (WITHOUT BILL PETERS) OR THE CALGARY
FLAMES (NOW WITH BILL PETERS) HAVE A BETTER SEASON?
Peters was the darling of the fancy-stats crowd for having
Carolina teams that dominated in possession but fell short of the playoffs due
to a lack of offensive standouts, and primarily due to substandard goaltending.
Under new coach Rod Brind'Amour, the Canes have some potential game-changers in
rookies Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas, but suspect goaltending behind a
great defense corps.
Meanwhile in Calgary, Peters has offensive standouts ... and
suspect goaltending behind a great defense corps. But given the conference
disparity, we'll say Carolina outpoints Calgary, although neither Peters'
current nor his former team will make the playoffs, which is somewhat
appropriate.
DOES A NOISY SUMMER EQUATE TO ST. LOUIS BEING A LEGITIMATE DARK-HORSE
CUP THREAT?
GM Doug Armstrong had the NHL offseason equivalent of
"Supermarket Sweep" this summer, acquiring Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler
Bozak, Patrick Maroon and David Perron. It's a lineup that already boasts
Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, Brayden Schenn, Alex Pietrangelo and Colton
Parayko. He managed to hang on to prospects Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou
despite the upgrades.
So the Blues are stacked, which brings us back to the matter
at hand: None of this equals Cup contention unless Jake Allen, 28, is a
franchise goalie instead of the .906 save percentage and .482 quality starts
netminder he was last season. If Allen is the guy, the Blues are legit
contenders. If he's not ... well, time for Armstrong to grab the cart and head
to the goalie aisle.
WHO WILL BE THE FIRST COACH FIRED?
After a quiet season for in-season firings -- as in we saw
none -- there are a few coaches on the hot seat entering 2018-19.
Todd McLellan of the Oilers, Guy Boucher of the Senators and
Bruce Boudreau of the Wild (who has a new general manager in Paul Fenton, let's
remember) might find their seats toasty.
But Randy Carlyle of the Ducks is a prime suspect here. He
has one year left on his contract, with Anaheim holding an option after this
season. Dallas Eakins, who coached Edmonton for two seasons, is ready down with
the AHL team in San Diego and coached several of the team's young players
(breakout candidate Ondrej Kase among them). John Gibson's goaltending might be
the only thing that keeps Carlyle in this gig, preventing a banged-up team from
falling too far.
WILL THE BLUE JACKETS HANG ON TO ARTEMI PANARIN AND SERGEI BOBROVSKY
FOR A FULL SEASON?
Yes, and potentially to their detriment. GM Jarmo Kekalainen
has vowed to retain both players, even as one has expressed a desire to sign
his next contract in what we'll call "Not Columbus," and the other
has been weirdly squirrely about his talks with the Jackets. But more than
anything, the Jackets know they'll be more their best selves this season with
Panarin and Bob than without. And the goal for Kekalainen is the now, rather
than the later, with a franchise that still has yet to venture out of the first
round of the playoffs.
