PANIC METER FOR STRUGGLING NFL TEAMS

Alert! Panic is already overtaking the NFL. After five weeks of play, some organizations are already trending in the wrong direction after poor starts.

The Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, New York Giants, Oakland Raiders, Philadelphia Eagles, Pittsburgh Steelers and San Francisco 49ers own a combined 14-34-2 record.

Each has different reasons for its performance, but all of them stuck are at or near the bottom of their respective divisions. Previous expectations tend to play a big role in how their current situations are viewed.

A 1-10 scale will be used to determine where each stands and how concerned these franchises should be through a third of the regular season:

7-10: Something needs to happen right now or changes should be forthcoming.

4-6: Everything is not all right, but it could be worse.

1-3: The season may not be going as planned, yet it's still viewed as part of the process.

A change in course remains possible. If not, panic will continue to grow as seasons deteriorate into disasters.

HONORABLE MENTION

A certain level of trepidation exists for every organization. Even the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams have areas of concern to address. A few others are worse off, but they're still positioned well enough despite a shaky performance through five weeks.

Denver Broncos (2-3): Three straight losses have the Broncos reeling, and Case Keenum hasn't been the stabilizing force the Broncos hoped he'd be. Instead, the offense can lean on its newfound running game behind rookies Royce Freeman and Phillip Lindsay while battling 11 other AFC teams with records between 2-3 and 3-2.

Houston Texans (2-3): The Texans' offensive line has been a disaster throughout the season, and quarterback Deshaun Watson has already been sacked 18 times. Even so, the Texans have won their last two, albeit in overtime, which places them only one game behind the 3-2 Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars in the AFC South.

Minnesota Vikings (2-2-1): When a Super Bowl favorite loses to one of the league's worst teams like Minnesota did against the Buffalo Bills, the panic meter goes to 11. The Vikings followed the embarrassment with another loss to the Rams. But a win at Philadelphia with consistent play from quarterback Kirk Cousins keeps Minnesota in the NFC North mix.

Seattle Seahawks (2-3): The Rams' exceptional start already has the Seahawks three games behind in the divisional race. But Seattle just provided its best performance of the season in a 33-31 loss to the Rams and remains positioned to compete for a wild-card spot.

San Francisco 49ers

Panic Meter: 2

The San Francisco 49ers were set to become this year's breakthrough team with their beloved quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, leading the way as the chiseled face of the franchise.

Fate had other plans.

Garoppolo suffered a season-ending ACL tear in Week 3 against the Kansas City Chiefs. The quarterback had surgery to repair the ligament last week, and the organization expects "a relatively obstacle-free rehab," according to NFL Network's Ian Rappoport.

The quarterback's injury came three weeks after the team lost running back Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL. With the starting backfield depleted, this season's approach had to change. Each week's performance is now about evaluation after the team's 1-4 start.

Every expectation placed on the 49ers this season can essentially be forwarded to the 2019 campaign.

Arizona Cardinals

Panic Meter: 3

The Arizona Cardinals are arguably the NFL's worst team. A somewhat surprising victory over the Jimmy Garoppolo-less San Francisco 49ers is the only reason why Steve Wilks' squad isn't 0-5.

A win is still a win whether it's considered good, bad or ugly—which is crucial for a team like Arizona. The Cardinals are in the early portions of the rebuilding process. They need to find ways to win even though they tend to be at a talent disadvantage each week.

The franchise became accustomed to fielding a highly competitive football team under previous head coach Bruce Arians. But Arians' retirement, alongside veteran quarterback Carson Palmer, placed the organization in a bind. Maintaining its previous level of performance would be next to impossible, especially with an eroding roster.

Now, the 1-4 Cardinals must become a phoenix rising from the ashes behind the play of rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. This rest of the season is beholden to his development.

Philadelphia Eagles

Panic Meter: 4

Forget any mention of a Super Bowl hangover for the Philadelphia Eagles. There's no hangover. They're simply not as good of a team this season.

Yet Philadelphia should still be considered NFC East favorites despite a 2-3 record.

A quick look around the division shows a dysfunctional Dallas Cowboys squad, Eli Manning's decline with the New York Giants and an incomplete Washington Redskins roster. It's available for the taking.

Philadelphia's recent track record and overall talent make them the obvious candidate to do so.

First, quarterback Carson Wentz is playing well despite a lack of support from his wide receivers, an inconsistent offensive line and a constantly rotating running back stable. However, help is on the way even after Jay Ajayi's season-ending knee injury. Head coach Doug Pederson told the media Wednesday that Darren Sproles is close to returning from a hamstring injury and that Corey Clement is expected to play Thursday against the Giants.

Finally, the Eagles defensive front is still formidable.

The Eagles built an impossible standard. They would have to win all 11 of their remaining games to repeat last season's success, but they're still good enough to compete for a division title.

Indianapolis Colts

Panic Meter: 5

Andrew Luck's healed right shoulder dominates any conversation regarding the Indianapolis Colts. While his return after a yearlong layoff is the top story, the quarterback's presence in the lineup overshadows the fact that Indianapolis doesn't field a competitive roster.

The offense ranks 22nd in yards per game, while the defense sits 23rd.

Overall, the Colts field a mediocre roster that relies heavily on young players, who are prone to make mistakes.

An extended week of preparation should help the team improve its overall health after tight end Jack Doyle, wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, right tackle Denzelle Good, running back Marlon Mack, defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway, nickel corner Kenny Moore II and cornerback Quincy Wilson were inactive for last Thursday's contest against the New England Patriots.

Furthermore, the youth and mistakes point to a larger issue. Indianapolis might reside in the AFC South's basement, but this is a team still building its talent base with few expectations placed on it this season.

It's about building around Luck as much as the quarterback's play.

Dallas Cowboys

Panic Meter: 6

Drama, not on-field performance, continues to drive the Dallas Cowboys organization.

When owner Jerry Jones openly questions coaching decisions, he undermines head coach Jason Garrett's authority. It's his prerogative to do so, of course, and Jones has a long history of manipulative behavior. Doing so, however, sends a mixed message, and players understand the dynamics of what's occurring.

Support is still behind Garrett.

For how long, though?

After years of mediocre performances, Garrett's future seems to be in doubt.

Yet the Cowboys (2-3) are only half a game behind the Washington Redskins (2-2) for first place in the woeful NFC East. And there's the catch.

Dallas has real issues. Declining offensive line play and a lack of talented wide receivers are primary among them. But the team is still in the thick of a divisional race.

A strong performance over a six-game span could be enough to overtake Washington. Three of the Cowboys' next six contests are against divisional opponents, including Washington twice. If they can navigate this stretch, their season may be saved, along with Garrett's standing.

Everything is still within Dallas' reach if it can refrain from becoming a house divided.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Panic Meter: 6

The Pittsburgh Steelers may have already turned a corner in Sunday's 41-17 victory against the Atlanta Falcons. Pittsburgh's previously sieve-like defense allowed 3.3 yards per carry and sacked quarterback Matt Ryan six times.

But the performance does require some context. The Falcons are also listed among those in panic mode, and their offense is nowhere near where it should be with their available talent.

That said, kudos are in order for a Steelers defense that still ranks 29th in yards allowed per game. Some of those earlier problems, like miscommunication and mental mistakes from the secondary, didn't disappear overnight, though. The unit needs to prove it can play more consistent and reliable football over an extended period.

Fortunately, Ben Roethlisberger and Co. are still ranked among the league's best offenses to offset some defensive deficiencies.

The Steelers' upcoming five-game stretch could be brutal. Three straight divisional opponents await the 2-2-1 squad. How Pittsburgh performs during that stretch could determine whether the playoffs are even feasible. Then the Steelers face the 3-1 Carolina Panthers and the Jacksonville Jaguars with their mega-talented defense.

Pittsburgh's season could be over or well on its way by Thanksgiving.

Green Bay Packers

Panic Meter: 7

The NFC North is far from a foregone conclusion with the 3-1 Chicago Bears and 2-2-1 Minnesota Vikings in line with the Green Bay Packers. But the Packers have yet to establish a rhythm, especially on offense.

Aaron Rodgers once famously told everyone to "R-E-L-A-X, relax. We're going to be OK." The quarterback wouldn't admit he's concerned about the team's performance and a 2-2-1 start, even though he kind of did.

Everything begins and ends with Rodgers. The organization is built around its quarterback.

However, Rodgers doesn't seem as invested compared to previous seasons. As quarterback performances reach unprecedented levels, Rodgers ranks 24th in completion percentage (63 percent) and 15th in yards per attempt (7.56).

Maybe the knee injury he suffered during the season opener against the Bears is still affecting his play.

New York Giants

Panic Meter: 7

Even in the downtrodden NFC East, the New York Giants are further away from the prize than their cohorts. Yes, the 1-4 Giants are still in the divisional picture, but they have far more to overcome, starting with subpar quarterback play and a potentially fractured locker room.

The comments forced head coach Pat Shurmur to address the issue.

Is the wide receiver wrong, though? Beckham's touchdown pass to Saquon Barkley last Sunday traveled 24 yards in the air; Manning hasn't had a touchdown throw go that far in the air since Week 5 of the 2017 campaign, according to ESPN Stats & Info.

Instead of investing this year's second overall pick in a talented quarterback prospect, the Giants chose a top-end running back while assuring everyone Manning had years left in the tank. The organization appears to have bungled that decision.

Despite all of this, one or two winning performances is all New York needs to keep itself in contention.

Oakland Raiders

Panic Meter: 10

The Oakland Raiders did everything wrong this offseason, starting with the hire of head coach Jon Gruden.

Gruden's disconnect from the modern game has become a joking matter. First, his decisions helped to make the Raiders the league's oldest team with numerous aging veterans expected to fill key roles. Then, the coach's ego inexplicably forced the organization to trade away its best player, Khalil Mack.

Furthermore, Derek Carr isn't progressing under the supposed quarterback whisperer's tutelage.

All the coach can do is provide excuses. He told reporters Tuesday

The Raiders should be the league's only 0-5 team, if not for a generous last-minute play reversal in Week 4 against the Cleveland Browns.

Owner Mark Davis almost certainly doesn't regret his decision to lure Gruden out of the announcer's booth based on his initial excitement, but he should with the organization's upcoming Las Vegas move and no apparent long-term plan toward becoming competitive.

Atlanta Falcons

Panic Meter: 10

The Atlanta Falcons played in a Super Bowl just two seasons ago. Now, they're tied for the NFL's worst record at 1-4 overall.

Yes, multiple devastating injuries have occurred. Four key starters—guard Andy Levitre, linebacker Deion Jones and safeties Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen—are on injured reserve. Starting running back Devonta Freeman, meanwhile, missed three games with a knee injury.

Even so, a team that features former MVP quarterback Matt Ryan, wide receiver Julio Jones, center Alex Mack, left tackle Jake Matthews, defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, cornerback Desmond Trufant and defensive ends Vic Beasley and Takkarist McKinley should manage more than a single victory through five contests.

But that's not the case, and a team with championship aspirations is now in disarray.

Injuries are only part of the problem. The offensive scheme is still a mess under coordinator Steve Sarkisian. Ryan has been sacked 16 times, while Jones has yet to score a touchdown. The defense, meanwhile, surrenders 32.6 points per game—second-worst behind the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

STEELERS, LIONS AMONG LAST-PLACE TEAMS WITH BEST PLAYOFF HOPES

It's never good to be in last place, but now that the 2018 NFL season has advanced past the quarter mark, sitting in the cellar carries a little extra weight.

Of course, it's not so late that it's completely impossible to turn things around. After all, since 1990, 21 percent of 2-3 teams and 6.6 percent of 1-4 teams have reached the playoffs, which means there is some hope for today's last-place squads (with the exception of the 2-2-1 Steelers, every last-place team is either 2-3 or 1-4).

As we roll into Week 6, I thought I'd evaluate all eight last-place teams and predict which squads have the best chances of climbing out of the basement, as you'll see below. Note: Divisional record was used to break ties.

1) PITTSBURGH STEELERS (2-2-1 IN THE AFC NORTH): Week 5's blowout win over the Falcons provided the first glimpse this season of what the Steelers could be. Working without Le'Veon Bell for the fifth straight week, the offense began to regain its balance, with James Conner (185 yards from scrimmage, two touchdowns) getting back on track. After an early slump by Antonio Brown (and some eyebrow-raising comments), the squeaky wheel got the grease and put up numbers, with Brown registering his first 100-yard, multi-score game of 2018. Ben Roethlisberger has played reasonably well, compiling the most passing yards in the AFC (1,664) while driving the eighth-ranked offense in the NFL. Defensively, T.J. Watt (three sacks on Sunday) has emerged as a major-league pass-rusher, which will help cover for a secondary that has been lacking. Pittsburgh still has a chance to win the AFC North, with Sunday's matchup against the division-leading Bengals looking like a significant indicator of the Steelers' fortunes going forward. Encouragingly for Pittsburgh, the Steelers have won nine of their last 10 games against Cincinnati.

2) DETROIT LIONS (2-3 IN THE NFC NORTH): The Lions have been all over the map this season, mixing truly discouraging losses with impressive showings against competitive teams. That inconsistency can probably be blamed on the fact that Detroit is adapting to new coach Matt Patricia's system. The bottom line is, this is a good team with advantages at quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and on the offensive line. The Lions' prospects will only be further enhanced by the emergence of second-round pick Kerryon Johnson (286 rushing yards, 5.7 per carry), who is the best back drafted by Detroit since Stafford arrived in 2009. Kenny Golladay is a wild card in a receiving corps that also includes the talented Golden Tate and Marvin Jones. If they can crank up a defense that ranks 26th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed, they have a pretty good chance to push for the NFC North title in this very tight division.

3) ATLANTA FALCONS (1-4 IN THE NFC SOUTH): The 2018 Falcons remind me a lot of the Dan Marino Dolphins of the 1980s: loaded with offensive firepower but hamstrung by a real lack of defense. Of course, Atlanta can't be blamed for the injuries to Keanu Neal, Deion Jones and Ricardo Allen. Jones should be back this year, which will be a plus, but I think the Falcons are too far in the hole in the NFC South, where they already carry a home loss to the division-leading New Orleans Saints, to make a viable push for the division. Head coach Dan Quinn went through a similar situation last season, when Atlanta started 4-4 but then went 6-2 and won a playoff game. I think this defense will come around and prove able to support the offense, and I see the Falcons scrapping for a wild-card berth.

 4) INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-4 IN THE AFC SOUTH): I don't think the Colts have it in them to snag a playoff spot this season. But I do think Indianapolis has assembled a quality coaching staff, led by Frank Reich, while GM Chris Ballard has restocked a talent cupboard that was completely bare when he assumed the job. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has coaxed a better-than-expected performance from his unit, helped along by the emergence of Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Darius Leonard (who leads a promising draft class that also included offensive lineman Quenton Nelson and running back Nyheim Hines). Andrew Luck, meanwhile, has played pretty well; I think he'll only get better as he continues to accumulate reps.

5) OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-4 IN THE AFC WEST): After last week's loss to the Chargers, I think the honeymoon may be over for Jon Gruden. The Raiders have some things going for them, including an offense that ranks sixth in yards. At times, Derek Carr plays like a franchise QB, but he struggles with consistency. The pass rush, meanwhile, continues to struggle, as Oakland is tied for last in the NFL (with the Giants) with six sacks. I do think the Raiders can get out of last place in the AFC West, because Denver looks quite vulnerable. But I don't think they'll make the playoffs.

6) New York Giants (1-5 in the NFC East): A lot of people, including myself, were optimistic about this team after a well-received offseason, only to have a gallon of cold water dumped on those optimistic thoughts. In order for the Giants to have a chance at the playoffs, they need to have much better offensive line play (the unit has given up 16 sacks), and the defense has to generate more sacks, having six in five games. New York's defensive backs, with the exception of Landon Collins, have to improve in coverage if this team is to escape last place. The loss to Carolina -- their third defeat this season by five points or less -- marked the first time since Week 17 of the 2015 season that the Giants scored 30 points or more, with Eli Manning and Co. setting season highs in passing yards (382) and offensive yards (432). Of course, 57 of those passing yards came via the arm of receiver Odell Beckham, who also put up his highest receiving yards total (131) since Week 16 of the 2016 season. There are still some questions about an offense that ranks 25th in the NFL, but while Manning might look like a convenient scapegoat for outsiders, he remains the kind of quarterback who can push a team to postseason glory. Right now, Saquon Barkley -- who has been a stud in the aerial game and on the ground -- has proven he deserved to be the No. 2 overall draft pick in April, but he can't carry this team by himself. On the other side of the ball, Olivier Vernon's return to health will shore up the D. Thursday night's showdown with an off-kilter Eagles team offers an appealing chance to begin catching up in a still-wide-open NFC East. I like the Giants' chances to win the division.

7) NEW YORK JETS (2-3 IN THE AFC EAST): Sunday's win over the Broncos included a number of promising signs, including Isaiah Crowell becoming the fourth player in NFL history to rush for 200-plus yards on 15 or less carries, and defensive lineman Leonard Williams notching the second multi-sack game of his career. Robby Anderson (three catches, 123 yards and two touchdowns) and Sam Darnold (3:1 TD-to-INT ratio and a 98.1 passer rating) also played well. But while I think Darnold could someday challenge the all-time passing mark that Drew Brees set on Monday night, he's still a rookie, and he'll continue to work through ups and downs. In fact, the entire team seems to run hot and cold. While the Jets should finish ahead of Buffalo and potentially Miami, they likely aren't consistent enough to do better than 8-8 or make the playoffs, especially with New England still ruling the AFC East roost.

8) San Francisco 49ers (1-4 in the NFC West): San Francisco is better than what we saw in last Sunday's loss to Arizona. The Niners did, after all, convert 33 first downs, which is the most for the franchise in any game since 1988. But they didn't have much to show for it, thanks to the fact that they committed five turnovers without forcing any in return. Basically, Jimmy Garoppolo's season-ending ACL tear crushed the Niners' chances of doing anything other than wrestling with the Cardinals for third place in the NFC West.

10 CRAZIEST NFL FAN BASES

Some fans are a little more of all that than others though, and some fan bases have more of them then others, which means the fanbase can seem a little crazier than most others. That’s not always a bad thing and it’s not meant as an insult. Teams play better with crazy fans.

Look at soccer fans – I’m sorry football fans – in Europe. Those guys are completely nuts and their teams feed off it. Look at collegiate sports like basketball and football. Of course, you still need a good team on the field, but a great fanbase is a big deal.

Sometimes though, a fanbase for a bad or struggling team can have equally rabid fans. These are die-hard guys who are intense because they have suffered through the lean times and the hope that things are getting better drive them.

No matter why they exist, we’ve got the list of some of the craziest fans out there in the NFL. These teams have some fans who are more than just passionate about their teams—they make die-hard fans go ‘wow, that’s extreme.’

For some, scratch the surface of that intensity and you’ve got tremendous knowledge of their team and sometimes the NFL in general.

Of course, the flip side is that if you are critical of their team, they go nuclear and like anti-bodies attacking a virus, they will assault in numbers. It makes for some interesting Twitter interaction with some of them as many media people can attest to.

I appreciate these fans though, as do the players. Without them the players are not making the huge money they do these days and I am writing about something less interesting like a local bridge being updated or a Piggly Wiggly being opened.

Then again, there are a fair amount of fans—both in and outside of the following fanbases—who would prefer that.

So without further ado, here are the ten craziest and intense NFL fanbases.

10. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

It gets a bit crazy. Like the petition they made to have President Obama force the Jaguars to get Tim Tebow, even though the owner had said ‘no, thanks.’ Or the radio ad asking for the same thing from some lawyer.

There seems to have been an awful lot of crazy around Tebow, huh?

Of course, as Crow would point out, that’s the fringe. The fringe is always more squirrely than the base.

That said, this is a passionate, faithful crew and they have their team’s back, Tebow or no. While Jacksonville’s overall attendance draw was 21^st in the NFL last season, their average (65,541) is pretty close to capacity (67,246). It’s expandable for way more, but they don’t do it for football. So for all the talk of tarps, people show to the games.

And more did that last year than they did in football meccas like Pittsburgh (62,226), Indianapolis (65,375) and Chicago (61,681). Now a lot of those numbers have to do with capacity, but that’s true of Jacksonville as well. They just don’t get the credit the other teams do.

They tailgate, they paint their faces, and they demand better teams but support the ones they have.

And as Crow wrote in his piece, their mascot caught on fire once which while not a ‘fan thing’ gives them some bonus points.

9. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

A month after winning a Super Bowl, Patriots fans are already angry because they were outbid by the Jets for Darrelle Revis, a guy who was always in it for the money. They’re never satisfied (and apparently don’t have a spellcheck).

Isn’t that how it is with crazy fanbases? It’s never enough. You can probably throw down the Patriots fans as second-most hated franchise (behind the Seattle Seahawks fans currently in hibernation after Pete Carrol blundered the last Super Bowl), and it’s in part because they never stop complaining.

Really, you’re looking at people who would complain that by hitting a $250 million lottery, their tax rate would go up.

But like the Jaguars fans, they will come after you hard if you dare to criticize them or their team. For instances of that, just google ‘Deflatgate’ and read the comments. Or probably read the comments here. Over/under on times I’m called an idiot?

The thing is, a lot of these fans are fun to be around. Head to Gillette Stadium and wander the parking lot and as long as you aren’t wearing a Jets jersey, you’re bound to end up talking to some Pats fan over a Sam Adams. Even if you’re a Jets fan, you’ll find someone who will invite you into a tailgate for a beer. The few times I have covered games in Foxboro, I’ve found the fans intense, but relatively fun to be around.

That probably knocks them down this list a little.

At the end of the day, while some of them are a little bent and we’re all tired of the rich folks (in championships) crying poor, the Pats fans are likely just reacting to the piercing cold which teams like Green Bay only overcome through brats and tons of Wisco Disco beer.

It might make anyone a tad unbalanced.

8. NEW YORK JETS

Picture DUVAL and Jacksonville fans but with a much longer stretch of frustration, constant coaching changes and no quarterback. Add in the inferiority complex they have from watching the New York Giants succeed more often than their beloved Jets, sprinkle some hatred for the rest of the AFC East, and you have the Jets fan.

It’s a passionate fanbase so used to grasping at straws that they don’t even realize its happening. Seriously, after Darrelle Revis was announced as returning to New York they were over the moon.

Forget the lack of quarterback, forget the fact that last I checked, Tom Brady was still playing—they had Revis back and dammit, that was all that mattered. There were even calls for a potential Super Bowl run, but let’s assume that was a little too much celebration and Brooklyn Ale.

Jets fans are constantly kicked when they’re down but their resilience is insane. They simply get back up, dust off and head back to MetLife Stadium. While maybe Fireman Ed has quit, the rest of Jets Nation is still showing up to the stadium and cheering for the green and white.

I mean seriously, what’s wrong with them?

The Jets fans are crazy because they always have hope. They are always ready to believe that this time it’s different. That this time, everything will work out.  Even Tim Tebow didn’t beat that out of them.

They show up early, they stay late (usually) and they are always ready to give the other team hell from the stands no matter how hopeless the cause. Because one day it’s getting better and they are going to be part of it.

7. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

The fabled 12^th man, the loud as heck stadium, the weather, the chants.

The Seahawks have a tremendous fanbase, although like the Patriots fans, they tend to get on everyone’s nerves. Seriously, how can a team’s fanbase complain as much as the Seahawks when they spend all their time winning?

At least this offseason, there is a reason to tear their hair out given that nobody has figured out what Pete Carroll was thinking not handing the ball off to Marshawn Lynch.

While they will go a bit far defending the indefensible and can have a bit of a bad reputation at times, they are loud and proud and have some pretty spectacular face painting going on.

Seriously, you try to keep your makeup from running when it’s constantly misting out.

While there have been charges of a surge in bandwagon fans (as illustrated by Thanh Tan in the Seattle Times), for the most part it’s a team which has had a strong fanbase for a long time and if there are some new faces, that’s only to be expected. Although some would say there are limits even for Seattle.

Seahawks fans are a bit intense and maybe a little overbearing, but that’s just passion. Like the Pats, a lot of hate is jealousy, and let’s be honest, it’s hard to react well to that and they don’t. That said, there are plenty of face-painting 12^th man denizens who know their football and can talk about it for hours, when they aren’t trying to break world records for noise.

6. GREEN BAY PACKERS

I’ve had a love/hate relationship with the Pack and its fans for a long time, though I have to admit to being more on the ‘love’ side in the last few years. Packers fans are an insular group, moving around in small packs (see what I did there), often with huge chips on their shoulders.

They nurse grudges, whether it’s for poor officiating or for Pro Bowl snubs, Packers fans remember it. The thing is, they are often just as passionate about football and the NFL in general, as they are their Packers.

My very first interaction with a Packers fan started with a violent (for Twitter) disagreement about who was better—Charles Wooodson or Darrelle Revis. I know right? Seems obvious, but we argued. But arguing was followed by respect and then beers and really, that’s the basis of any relationship.

Because at the heart of it, a lot of Packers fans are intense about their team but also willing to argue and debate and listen to the other side.

Which doesn’t take away from the fact that these folks still talk about the Ice Bowl as if it was a reasonable event and look forward to the next one, wear cheese on their heads and park on people’s front lawns prior to games. Heck, the stadium seems to be nestled in people’s front yards as well.

I suppose you’d have to be a little crazy to live in the arctic that is Wisconsin, and if you did, you might need something to keep you sane over the winter. Than hobby—in this case, wearing cheeseheads and quoting ‘Discount Double Check’ commercials—might become an obsession.

Which would explain a lot about Packer fans.

5. CHICAGO BEARS

Once upon a time, Bears fans were such a big deal they had their own segment on Saturday Night Live. They’ve had their own dance and the team plays in a stadium that, while refurbished, has one of the oldest exteriors of any stadium in the NFL.

Is it any shock that Bears fans are super-intense about Da Bears?

Bears fans have a bit of an inferiority complex when it comes to that legacy in some ways, as it’s been a while since they had a championship. They have only been to the Super Bowl once since the Super Bowl Shuffle days, and they get to watch the Packers win the division almost every year.

But if you back a Bears fan into a corner, he will defend his team to the end, even while criticizing Jay Cutler’s body language. Remember, it’s fine if they do it—Cutler is their guy, after all. Anyone else is an interloper and should quiet down.

This is the fanbase which is aching so bad to wrest control of the division away from the Packers, it’s almost as bad as Jets fans trying to ‘win’ New York from the Giants.

The problem with being a Bears fan is, unlike the Jets who have largely been just plain bad (save for two years under Rex Ryan); the Bears have made runs and had talent. There just seems to always be something that goes wrong, whether an injury to the quarterback, the decline of their defensive studs or the complete lack of an offensive line.

As soon as one thing gets fixed, it seems like another thing breaks.

Like the Packers fan, Chicago Bears fans have to deal with some cold weather and the wind and fog off the lake. I’d imagine it makes you little nuts, though they should be able to get over it with some excellent deep dish pizza.

Overall the Bears fans are super-intense, and occasionally a little unhinged when talking NFC North teams, but you won’t find too many more loyal fanbases in the NFL.

4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Eagles fans will say they get a bad rap. A few batteries chucked, a couple of ice-balls and booing Santa will do that, but a lot of that is overblown.

That said, the Link isn’t the most welcoming place for opposing fans, especially those from NFC East teams. In the times I have been there I have seen some pretty ugly altercations and arguments between Eagles fans and Cowboys/Giants/Washington fans. You get that at every park, but it seems to be a pretty common occurrence still, even if the new stadium lacks the stadium court the Vet had, installed by the City of Philadelphia in 1998.

The New York Times Dave Anderson did a piece on the old stadium which lists some of the insanity Eagles fans have wrought, including arson (firing a flare gun), battery throwing and other nonsense.

While the overall vibe has mellowed some, it’s a tough group to hang with. Eagles fans are a dedicated group, loyal to the point of craziness in a way which most of the teams on this list can understand. They support their team wholeheartedly though and firmly believe that things will improve.

They aren’t naïve though, they know when things are going south and will push ownership to make moves when it looks like it has to happen.

Overall, the Eagles have throttled back the crazy, but that doesn’t make them any less intense.

3. BALTIMORE RAVENS

The other half of one of the best rivalries in football, the Ravens and their fans are just as intense as the Steelers. Ravens fans have had more recent success but that didn’t decrease the chip on their shoulders.

Their quarterback is disrespected, their defense is overlooked and they had to withstand the slings and arrows with how their team dealt with Ray Rice last season as well. So you’ll have to forgive them if they’re a little on edge these days.

Just a few years removed from a Super Bowl win, the fans saw their team struggle as it tried to repeat its win, and witnessed other teams—notably the Cincinnati Bengals—begin to rise in prominence.

Ravens fans aren’t taking that lying down, that’s for sure.

The interesting thing about Ravens fans is how quiet they get, especially in the off-season. It’s like they are conserving energy for the season or something. You see less trash talk from them before the draft, but it ramps up quickly, until it crescendos as the season hits.

For Ravens fans, they will always have that chip on their shoulder, and if you want to see it just mention how Joe Flacco is tremendously overpaid or not elite.

Even as silly a term as ‘elite’ is, that’s sure to get them fired up.

OAKLAND RAIDERS

No list of passionate or crazy fans would be complete without the Oakland Raiders fans. These are fans who dress up in costumes in a section called ‘The Black Hole’ and are rowdy enough to where when they travel to San Diego for a Chargers game, the Chargers hire more security.

There are a lot of reasons to laud the intensity and insanity of this group. There is a contingent which fell in love with the silver and black when they resided in Los Angeles which flies up on game days and home after the game. Every Sunday.

They’ll do the same in reverse if the Raiders move south again.

There is the acceptance—and pride—of both players and fans in how unruly they can be on the field and in the stands (though the rough play on the field is a little less now). Despite the rep and the pride in it, I used to find Raiders fans (especially the commuters on Sundays) to be very pleasant people, fright masks aside.

And of course, their utter hatred of the entire AFC West which makes it impossible for them to have a sane conversation with the fans of those teams.

Raiders fans tend to have a pretty solid knowledge of NFL history though—it might be because it’s been so long since this was a successful franchise—and take pride in how critical their team was to the success of the NFL today. And like many on this list, the long-suffering Raiders fans are hanging in there against all odds that things will get better soon.

While it hasn’t looked good for a long time, Raiders fans hang in there and cheer their hearts out for their team every Sunday in the hopes it will turn around sooner than later.

PITTSBURGH STEELER

Now the team that I grew up watching and then went on to cover them for 34 years. No team in the NFL has a bigger follower the Steelers. When the Steelers travel, they have some of the biggest fan turn out then the team there playing.

Steelers fans have the reputation of being true-blue collar, intense and loyal to their team. Even when they leave Pittsburgh, Steelers fans will continue to don their Ben Roethlisberger or Le’Veon Bell jerseys, plop down in front of the TV and root for the black and gold.

Their hatred of the rest of the AFC North is epic—even for the woeful Cleveland Browns, who really don’t bother anyone, right? But this is a fanbase which sees all the other teams in their division as coming for what is right fully theirs—the division crown.

Really, the Steeler fanbase has been through some lean times of late, but they turn out to Heinz Field with religious fervor and adamantly believe in their team. They adore their players, love the coach and even when things look dim—as they did for much of the 2014 season—they turn out to cheer their team on.

If you want to know how intense this group can get, just check out any Steeler-Raven game, with the Terrible Towels waving and the deafening voices of thousands of fans trying to drown out Joe Flacco’s signal calls.

Steelers-Ravens games are intense because you have two franchises who despise each other on the field and their fans feel the same way with the same intensity.

The whole AFC North is a cauldron of hate for the other teams and Steelers fans are definitely all for continuing to add to the stew that makes up those rivalries.

5 NFL TEAMS THAT MUST WIN IN WEEK 6

Week 5 has come and gone; now Week 6 looms large for several teams. Heading into the weekend, let’s look at five teams that need a victory.

Week 5 was a little more cut and dry than previous weeks. For the most part, the teams that were supposed to win came out with the victory. Well, everyone except the Titans and the Ravens, who lost to the Bills and the Browns respectively.

Week 6 seems like it is cut from the same cloth, there aren’t too many games with upset potential. However, it is football so anything can happen.

Last week, only two of the five teams I selected as teams that needed a win, came out with a win. Those two were the Arizona Cardinals and the Minnesota Vikings. The Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, and the Jacksonville Jaguars all came up short.

LET’S LOOK AT FIVE TEAMS IN NEED OF A WIN IN WEEK 6, STARTING WITH THE HOUSTON TEXANS.

5. HOUSTON TEXANS

In Week 5 the Texans won the battle of Texas and defeated the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. It might have taken overtime and a huge play from DeAndre Hopkins, but they found a way to win the game nonetheless.

Two weeks ago, it seemed like a pipe dream that the Texans would be able to compete in the AFC South. The Titans and Jaguars both jumped out to early leads in the division, but both have faltered and it leaves the Texans only one game out of first place.

If the Texans can string together some victories they could be right back in the heat of the playoff conversation. This week they play against an unpredictable Buffalo Bills team that upset the Titans last week. If the Texans can take care of business against their Bills, they will be .500 after six weeks, something most fans would take after starting the season so poorly.

4. CAROLINA PANTHERS

Yes, you read that correctly, the Panthers need to win in Week 6 and here’s why. The NFC South is arguably the most competitive division in football so far this season. The Saints lead the way at 4-1, then the Panthers at 3-1, with the Buccaneers at 2-2 and Falcons at 1-4. To keep pace, the Panthers need to take advantage of the Saints being on bye.

The Panthers already had their bye in Week 4, and in Week 5 defeated the New York Giants in epic fashion, kicking a 63-yard field goal for the victory. This week they face off against the Washington Redskins who just got destroyed by the Saints on Monday Night Football.

On a short week after a demoralizing loss, the Redskins cannot be feeling great. If the Panthers are able to go on the road and dispatch of them, they will be tied at 4-1 on top of the division will 11 games left.

A win would keep the Panthers on level ground with the Saints who have been electric this season. Cam Newton and Christian McCaffery have both been terrific thus far, and they can surely do some damage on the Redskins defense. Keep your eyes on rookie wide receiver D.J. Moore who is ready to officially break onto the scene, this may be the week he does so.

3. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Sticking in the NFC South, the Tampa Bay Bucs are another team in need of a victory in Week 6, just for different reasons. While it would be nice to compete in the division, the Buccaneers seemingly don’t have the talent necessary to make a push for the playoffs. However, they need a win to fully justify their decision to go back to Jameis Winston at quarterback.

Replacing Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was on an insane tear during the first few games, was arguably their biggest decision thus far. If Winston comes out and looks flat, obviously fans will question the team’s decision-making and will want Fitzmagic back under center.

However, if Winston comes out and shows that he is the quarterback of the future for the team, it will give them something to build on heading into next season. I know it is only Week 6, but that Buccaneers defense is nowhere near good enough to earn a playoff spot. Figuring out the quarterback situation is a step in a positive direction and would be a win for the team.

Also, if there is a team with a worse defense, it might just be the Atlanta Falcons. A division win would go a long way in keeping spirits high in Tampa Bay. Coming out of their bye, expectations should be high for them this week. Expect Winston to have a solid game and the Bucs to roll over the Falcons.

2. PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Perhaps surprisingly, the Steelers have appeared on this list several times in the early going of the season. Their 2-2-1 record leaves them in the bottom of the AFC North, tied with the Cleveland Browns. They sit one game behind the Baltimore Ravens and two games behind the surprisingly good Cincinnati Bengals.

Speaking of the Bengals, they host the down-trodden Steelers this week. However, the Steelers are coming off of a big win over the Falcons in Week 5. One in which they were cruising on both sides of the ball, scoring 41 points on offense and getting Antonio Brown back on track. With Le’Veon Bell waiting in the wings, this season is far from over for the Steelers.

A win over the Bengals would bring them within a game of the division leaders and would be a huge confidence boost for a team needing some motivation. With their bye coming in Week 7, they will have a chance to regroup and reorganize heading into their last ten games.

A win would improve them to 3-2-1 with ten to play, giving them a fighter’s chance at making the playoffs. With the amount of talent on the roster, missing the playoffs would be a colossal failure. Hopefully with a win over the Bengals the Steelers will be able to right the ship, just in the nick of time.

1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

In what is undoubtedly the biggest game of the week, perhaps of the season so far, the New England Patriots will host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs. As it stands now, this could be a preview of the AFC Championship. Patrick Mahomes has the Chiefs offense playing some sensational football, but their defense couldn’t stop a college offense.

In Foxborough, the Patriots are nearly unbeatable. Their 3-2 record this season is split by home and away very easily, all three wins are at home, and both of the losses are on the road. Coincidence? I think not.

Tom Brady looks like his typical MVP self, and the Patriots may have found a gem in running back Sony Michel. If they continue to play well, they should have a field day with the Chiefs defense. However, the Patriots defense is not much better than the Chiefs, and one could argue that the Chiefs offense is better.

If New England wins, they slow down the hype train that is the Chiefs and will cement themselves atop the AFC. Without question, it is the biggest test of the year for both teams, and will serve as a good litmus test for them. Either could be selected as the “must-win” candidate, but with the Patriots being at home, it seems like a more important game for the reigning AFC champions.

2018 PITTSBURGH PIRATES ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:

RICHARD RODRIGUEZ

Despite entering spring training as a non-roster invitee, 2018 proved to be a breakout season for reliever Richard Rodriguez

When spring training 2018 began for the Pittsburgh Pirates the bullpen had plenty of options. It appeared that Felipe Vazquez, George Kontos, Michael Feliz, Dovydas Neverauskas, and Edgar Santana would be the pitchers anchoring the ‘pen in 2018.

While some of this proved to be true, as fans see every year in baseball, there was also some serious turnover in the Pirate bullpen. By the end of the season the team had one of the best bullpens in the National League and a big reason for the bullpen’s success was the player who has been named Rum Bunter’s 2018 Pittsburgh Pirates’ Rookie of the Year – Richard Rodriguez.

Last offseason, the Pirates signed Rodriguez as a minor league free agent. This deal included an invited to spring training for Rodriguez. While Rodriguez did not make the team out of camp, he opened plenty of eyes and was in the Majors before the end of April.

By the end of the season, Rodriguez had become one of Clint Hurdle‘s most trusted relievers. With the team resting Keone Kela down the stretch, Rodriguez became the team’s primary 8th inning man the final few weeks of the season and for good reason.

In 69 1/3 innings pitched in 2018 Rodriguez owned a 2.47 ERA, 2.60 FIP, and he struck out a remarkable 31.5% of the batters he faced. His 31.5% strikeout rate set a new Pirate rookie record. Rodriguez also led the National League relievers in inherited runner strand rate.

While fellow relievers such as Santana and Kyle Crick could also make a strong case for being the team’s rookie of the year, Rodriguez gets the nod for a few reasons. First off, both Santana and Crick experienced some peaks and valleys in 2018 while Rodriguez was consistent throughout the second. Second, Rodriguez’s versatility (stranding runners, racking up strikeouts, the ability to pitch multiple innings, etc.) also gives him a slight advantage.

Moving forward, Rodriguez has solidified himself as a key member of the Pirate bullpen. Even with Santana slated to miss all of 2019 due to Tommy John Surgery, the Pirates should still have a strong bullpen and Rodriguez is a big reason why.

2018 PITTSBURGH PIRATES CY YOUNG

JAMESON TAILLON

After taking a big step forward in 2018, the Pittsburgh Pirates appear to have a bonafide ace sitting at the top of their rotation in the form of Jameson Taillon

Now that the 2018 regular season has come to an end for the Pittsburgh Pirates we can look back on it and examine the good and the bad. As part of the good, a lucky few will be winners of Rum Bunter Awards this week.

We will start with Rum Bunter’s 2018 Pirates’ Cy Young Award winner. While a strong argument could be made for Trevor Williams, the nod goes to Jameson Taillon.

During spring training, I predicted that Taillon would be a top-10 pitcher in the National League by the end of the season. Well, Taillon’s 3.7 fWAR in 2018 ranked 11th in the NL. So, I almost got one right for once. 

In 32 starts this season, Taillon pitched 191 innings, the first two complete games of his career, he owned a 3.20 ERA, and a 3.46 FIP. Other than ERA, all of these led the Pirate pitching staff. His 3.7 fWAR was a staff high, too. On a broader level, Taillon’s ERA and FIP both ranked 11th in the NL, his 5.9% walk rate was 7th best in the league, and his 22.8% strikeout ranked 18th.

After a slow start to the season, Taillon starting throwing a slider during a start against the Cincinnati Reds on May 22nd. From this point on, Taillon was one of the best starting pitchers in the NL. 

After adding his slider Taillon owned a 2.97 ERA, 3.20 FIP, a 5.2% walk rate, 23.4% strikeout rate, and he allowed just 14 home runs in 145 2/3 innings pitched (0.86 HR/9). Additionally, Taillon allowed three earned runs or less in each of his final 22 starts of the season. 

Moving forward, the Pirates have a legitimate staff ace in Taillon. When the team drafted him with the #2 overall pick in the 2010 draft a staff anchor/ace is what the Pirates saw in Taillon’s future, and that future has become the present.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES REWIND

CATCHERS

With the 2018 season being done and the 2019 offseason not really being able to start until after the World Series, it’s time to look back at the different positional groups in 2018.  First up are the catchers.

The Pittsburgh Pirates catchers this season hit 22 home runs this past season, with Francisco Cervelli providing 12 and Elias Diaz 10.  Cervelli eclipsed his previous career high of seven on May 31.  Unfortunately for him, he was limited to just 104 games and 404 plate appearances.  That’s long been Cervelli’s problem, only posting one season with more than 500 plate appearances (2015) and just two with over 400.

While the Pirates have struggled to replace him offensively in the past – Chris Stewart, despite being a plus pitch framer, hit .197/.276/.249 in 257 plate appearances in 2016 and 2017.  This year, however, Elias Diaz provided lots of value behind the plate, hitting .286/.339/.452 in 277 plate appearances.

The emergence of the Diaz as a backup and Cervelli’s power led the Pirates to finish third in WARP, Baseball Prospectus’ version of WAR that includes framing, blocking, and throwing:

RANK   TEAM   WARP

1          Dodgers 7.22

2          Marlins  6.03

3          Pirates  5.32

4          Phillies  4.71

5          Braves  4.61

Cervelli (3.07 WARP) finished fifth and Diaz (2.25 WARP) finished 10th.  Most of that value came via the bat, as their defense lagged behind.  The club finished 22nd with -7.6 framing runs, 26th with -2.6 blocking runs, and second with 0.7 throwing runs.  Add that together, and the Pirates catcher had -3.8 fielding runs above average after adding in the those throwing, blocking, and framing numbers.  That kept the Pirates in the bottom half, ranking 19th.  There is a way to improve these defensive numbers for next season that I’ll be writing about soon, but it’s a radical and aggressive move that really wouldn’t fit the history 

Where the defense struggled, the offensive bloomed.  Cervelli adjusted his stance and saw his power play more.  Part of that came from Cervelli increasing his launch angle and driving the ball in the air more.

Over the last four seasons in which Trackman has kept track of batted ball data, Cervelli’s average launch angles have been of the following: 

YEAR   AVERAGE LAUNCH ANGLE

2015     6.0°

2016     5.9°

2017     6.3°

2018     15.6°

Grand Total       8.3°

In 2018, Cervelli made contact with the ball at a higher angle and was able to hit more fly balls.  Just look at the distribution, in 2015 Cervelli was making contact with angles that would lead to more extra base hits but he was also hitting the ball at a suboptimal angle too.  The same applies to 2016 and 2017 as well.  In 2018, however, Cervelli’s launch angle distribution doesn’t have those peaks to the left of zero and the center of the distribution moved to the right.

The changing of the swing to get more loft (attack angle) helped Cervelli’s batted ball profile (launch angle) as his groundball rate decreased from 52.3 percent to 38.8 percent while his flyball rate increased from 27.1 percent to 41.7 percent.  Add in his ability to draw walks (12.5 percent) and get on-base (.378), Cervelli was a bat you’d want at the dish showing some power (.172 ISO) and on-base skill.

But again, he only played in 104 games because of injuries, so it wasn’t all rosy for catcher who will be entering his age 33 season next year.  Recurring concussion symptoms were a problem and for Francisco Cervelli going forward, moving off the position could best for him, and that’s something that John Jaso did because of the concussions.

The internal replacement would be Elias Diaz, who posted a .340 wOBA and was worth 2.3 wins.  He did this all in 82 games.  The breakout offensively helped mask the defense where Diaz was worth -1.2 framing runs and overall was -3.2 runs worse than an average catcher.  So on the surface, Diaz would be a natural replacement at catcher for the club with Cervelli moving off to a new position if the bat plays.

But what if Diaz isn’t that player going forward?  I’ve long been a skeptic of Diaz’s bat, though this season provided a glimpse of what he might potentially be able to do.  If he remains a .340 wOBA player, Diaz will be able to start at the Major League level despite his framing and blocking numbers.

When Nate Werner at Pirates Breakdown looked at the Pirates and solving their home run, he found in his model that Diaz over performed by three home runs (at the time Diaz had hit eight). 

Nate’s model looked at balls in play and the probability each ball would be a home run in that park, which acts as a park adjustment.  The model doesn’t include spray angle, an important factor in determining direction.  A pulled down the line ball is more has a better chance of getting out compared to hitting it dead center, or in the Pirates case the notch.  Down the line doesn’t need as much power.  Here’s a look at Diaz’s spray chart using the Baseball R package from Bill Petti:

It’s a neutral field so all balls along the outer line aren’t home runs, some are outs and some are other extra base hits.  In terms of balls to the outfield, Diaz looks about even in terms of where the balls are distributed, but balls in the infield are mostly pulled on the ground to the shortstop and third baseman.

Because Diaz should have hit fewer home runs based on Nate’s model, using the spray chart and the batted ball data the spray angle can be calculated using the method Jim Albert laid out here.  The following are the spray angles of Diaz’s home runs (only nine registered with Trackman); with -45° being down the left field line and 45° being down the right field line:

HR Number      Spray Angle

1          -19.6°

2          -15.5°

3          -18.1°

4          -32.4°

5          -22.9°

6          -6.3°

7          -28.4°

8          -28.0°

9          -29.8°

Average            -22.3°

Given that PNC Park jettisons out deep in left field, with only the left field corner playing favorable, you have to wonder about the power going forward with really only four of his nine tracked home runs landing before it gets deep at PNC, as around the -25° mark the fence starts to jet out.  Furthermore, Diaz only had 30 present/40 future game power and 45 present/45 future raw power when he was last a prospect.  He’s never really been projected as a batter with pop, but he does have the size to where maybe it’s not unreasonable for him to outperform his scouting grades.

Overall: The Pirates catchers were a strong position group in 2018.  They were third in terms of value (WARP) and both Cervelli and Diaz showed power.  Despite their strong showing, there’s still questions going forward with the defense, Cervelli’s health, and if Diaz can be an everyday starter and if the bat is real.  As good as they were in 2018; heading into 2019 there should be some concern unless Cervelli is able to stay healthy or an aggressive moves this offseason happens.

MY MLB SATURDAY LCS GUIDE:

RED SOX TAKE AIM AT THE CHAMPS; AND CAN THE DODGERS EVEN UP?

The league championship series started with a bang as the Milwaukee Brewers ran their winning streak to 12 games and handed Clayton Kershaw the shortest postseason start of his career to seize a quick lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Can Milwaukee expand on it in Game 2? And now the Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros join the fray with a showdown between their aces on tap, as both ballclubs aim to gain that same advantage.

The most important thing of the day: Going back to their days pitching for the Detroit Tigers and the Chicago White Sox in the AL Central, Justin Verlander has won six of seven matchups with Chris Sale. That includes their matchup in Game 1 of the American League Division Series last year, when Verlander beat Sale in the Boston beanpole's postseason debut. Will history repeat itself, or will Sale even the score?

NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES GAME 2: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

Hyun-Jin Ryu (7-3, 1.97 ERA) vs. Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA), 4:09 p.m. ET, Fox and ESPN Radio

THE STAKES: The Dodgers do not want to have fly home in an 0-2 hole and perhaps wondering if they're going to get the series back to Milwaukee. The Brewers want to make sure that they do.

IF THE DODGERS WIN: Not only will they have achieved a split to help erase the multiple embarrassments of their Game 1 loss, they'll head back to a ballpark where their advantage in starting pitching might tell with Walker Buehler, Rich Hill and Clayton Kershaw potentially lined up for the L.A. assignments.

IF THE BREWERS WIN: They'll head to L.A. with a significant advantage and the rest day they'll need to help stretch their bull penning plan for their "out-getters" across the full series.

ONE KEY STAT TO KNOW: The Dodgers may have won an MLB-best 40 regular-season games in matchups against opposing left-handed starters, but they may not get to add another easily if Miley exits quickly. The question for the Brewers is whether they can afford to take Miley out quickly after already asking for seven innings from their bullpen -- including three from Josh Hader alone -- in Game 1.

THE MATCHUP THAT MATTERS MOST: Ryu blanking the Braves for seven innings in the NL Division Series, so he's somebody who might get through the order more than a couple of times. The Brewers' hitters don't have a lot of direct experience facing the injury-prone South Korean southpaw, just 24 career plate appearances between them, which makes Jesus Aguilar's first career at-bats against him in this game so important. Aguilar crushed lefties this year for a .929 OPS and ranked ninth in MLB in home run percentage. After taking lefty Julio Urias deep in Game 1, does he have more of that on tap in Game 2?

THE PREDICTION: Did you see what the Brewers did after falling behind early in Game 1? I certainly did, and there's no way I'm picking against this team in their ballpark while they're on the run that they are on. Who will play the role of Babe Woodruff in Game 2? I don't know, it could be anyone in the lineup -- or not in it -- but I see the Brew Crew heading to L.A. with a 2-0 NLCS lead. Brewers 4, Dodgers 2.

AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES GAME 1: HOUSTON ASTROS AT BOSTON RED SOX

Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA) vs. Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA), 8:09 p.m. ET, TBS and ESPN Radio

THE STAKES: You don't want to be down a win against either of these teams, but something's gotta give.

IF THE ASTROS WIN: The pressure will increase dramatically for the Red Sox with David Price and his subpar postseason track record starting Game 2.

IF THE RED SOX WIN: There will be at least a bit of a safety net for Price when he takes the mound in front of Fenway fans who will have little patience with him.

ONE KEY STAT TO KNOW: Sale's career 5-2 record and 1.83 ERA in seven starts against the Astros might sound overpowering, but after not giving up more than one earned run in any of his first five starts against them, Sale gave up four in both of his past two turns against them. And while Sale has held the current Astros to a combined .674 OPS, Alex Bregman has two home runs in eight career plate appearances against him, while Jose Altuve has three in 30.

THE MATCHUP THAT MATTERS MOST: AL MVP favorite Mookie Betts clearly is the catalyst for the Red Sox's offense, but Betts is 1-for-16 in his career against Verlander, the one hit a double in last year's division series.

THE PREDICTION: A few Red Sox fans got on me for picking the Yankees in all four games in the ALCS. So I guess it's time to pick the Red Sox. I think we get a good duel between Verlander and Sale, and this one is decided late between the bullpens -- and Boston's group of right-handers comes up big against Houston's righty-heavy lineup. I think it's more imperative the Red Sox win the opener -- and they will, in a walk-off. Red Sox 3, Astros 2

BREWERS WIN GAME 1 WITH BULLPEN HELP

Top of Form

MILWAUKEE 6, LA DODGERS 5

WHEN: 8:09 PM ET, Friday, October 12, 2018
WHERE: Miller Park, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Temperature: Indoors
UMPIRES: Home - Scott Barry, 1B - Alan Porter, 2B - Gerry Davis, 3B - Hunter Wendelstedt, LF - Jim Wolf, RF - Brian Gorman
ATTENDANCE: 43615

Brandon Woodruff threw two perfect innings and ignited an 11-hit attack with the first home run ever recorded by a left-handed-hitting pitcher against a lefty pitcher in postseason history Friday night, leading the host Milwaukee Brewers to a 6-5 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 1 of the National League Championship Series.

The win was the Brewers' 12th straight dating back to the end of the regular season.

Game 2 in the best-of-7 is scheduled for Saturday afternoon, also in Milwaukee, with the Dodgers expected to pitch left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu against Brewers lefty Wade Miley.

Domingo Santana had a two-run, pinch-hit single, and Jesus Aguilar smacked a home run as the Brewers sent Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw to the showers after just three-plus innings, the shortest postseason start of his career.

Manny Machado drove in three runs with a home run and two-run single for the Dodgers, who are making their third straight appearance in the NLCS.

Woodruff got the Brewers rolling, first with his arm. He came on in relief after the Dodgers had taken a 1-0 lead against Milwaukee starter Gio Gonzalez, with Machado providing the run with his third homer this postseason in the second inning.

Gonzalez was pulled after two innings despite having allowed just one hit and one walk. He also struck out one.

After retiring the Dodgers 1-2-3 in the top of the third, Woodruff stepped to the plate and belted a two-strike Kershaw fastball well over the fence in right-center field for his second career home run, tying the score.

The Brewers added a second run in the inning, in large part because of a nightmarish sequence by Dodgers catcher Yasmani Grandal, who recorded two errors -- one on catcher's interference -- and a passed ball in the inning.

Hernan Perez delivered the go-ahead run with a sacrifice fly, which would have ended the inning if not for the catcher's interference on an apparent lineout by Aguilar.

Milwaukee then took command in the fourth and ended Kershaw's night, with Santana's pinch-hit giving the Brewers a 4-1 lead and prompting the Dodgers to summon Ryan Madson from the bullpen.

Ryan Braun capped the three-run inning with an RBI single, making it 5-1.

Kershaw was charged with all five runs, four of which were earned. He allowed six hits and two walks, striking out two.

The standout's previous shortest postseason start had been four innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2013 NLCS.

He fell to 8-8 in his postseason career.

With Woodruff and Josh Hader combining for five shutout innings, the Brewers took a 6-1 lead into the eighth before the Dodgers made it a game.

Batting with the bases loaded and two outs in the eighth, Machado blooped a two-run single off Jeremy Jeffress to get Los Angeles within 6-3, and Matt Kemp made it a two-run game with a sharp single to left.

But Jeffress was able to strike out pinch hitter Yasiel Puig with the potential tying runs on base, preserving the 6-4 lead.

The Dodgers got within 6-5 against Corey Knebel in the ninth when Joc Pederson drew a two-out walk and Chris Taylor lashed a triple into and out of the glove of center fielder Lorenzo Cain.

But Knebel bounced back to strike out Justin Turner to end it and recorded his first career postseason save.

Cain had three hits for the Brewers, who had limited the Colorado Rockies to a total of just two runs in a three-game sweep in the NL Division Series.

Taylor collected three hits, while Machado and Kemp had two apiece for the Dodgers, who won the season series from the Brewers 4-3.

Los Angeles committed four errors in the contest.

Top Game Performances

Starting Pitchers

LA Dodgers		Milwaukee
Clayton Kershaw	Player	Gio Gonzalez
Loss	W/L	No Decision
3.0	IP	2.0
2	Strikeouts	1
6	Hits	1
12.00	ERA	4.50

Hitting

LA Dodgers		Milwaukee
Chris Taylor	Player	Lorenzo Cain
3	Hits	3
1	RBI	0
0	HR	0
5	TB	4
.600	Avg	.600

TEAM STATS SUMMARY

TEAM	Hits	HR	TB	Avg	LOB	K	RBI	BB	SB	Errors
LA DODGERS	8	1	13	.229	12	13	5	3	0	4
MILWAUKEE	11	2	18	.333	19	8	6	3	1	0

Bottom of Form

SCORING SUMMARY

INNING				LAD	MIL
Dodgers		2nd	Machado homered to center (396 feet).	1	0
Brewers		3rd	Woodruff homered to center (407 feet).	1	1
Brewers		3rd	Pérez hit sacrifice fly to center, Cain scored, Yelich to third, Aguilar to second on error by catcher Grandal.	1	2
Brewers		4th	Santana singled to left center, Piña and Arcia scored.	1	4
Brewers		4th	Braun singled to right, Santana scored.	1	5
Brewers		7th	Aguilar homered to right (359 feet).	1	6
Dodgers		8th	Machado singled to left center, Pederson and Taylor scored, Muncy to second.	3	6
Dodgers		8th	Kemp singled to left center, Muncy scored, Machado to third.	4	6
Dodgers		9th	Taylor tripled to deep right, Pederson scored.	5	6

Final Scoring Summary

Final	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
LA Dodgers	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	5	8	4
Milwaukee	0	0	2	3	0	0	1	0	-	6	11	0

LA Dodgers

Hitters	Pos	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	Avg
Chris Taylor	LF-2B	5	1	3	1	0	1	0	.600
Justin Turner	3B	5	0	0	0	0	4	4	.000
David Freese	1B	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Max Muncy	PH-1B	2	1	0	0	1	2	1	.000
Manny Machado	SS	4	1	2	3	0	1	0	.500
Matt Kemp	RF	4	0	2	1	0	1	0	.500
Enrique Hernandez	2B	2	0	0	0	1	1	1	.000
Julio Urias	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Yasiel Puig	PH	1	0	0	0	0	1	2	.000
Kenta Maeda	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Cody Bellinger	CF	4	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000
Yasmani Grandal	C	4	0	1	0	0	2	1	.250
Clayton Kershaw	SP	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Ryan Madson	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Dylan Floro	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Brian Dozier	PH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Pedro Baez	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Joc Pederson	LF	1	2	0	0	1	0	1	.000
Totals		35	5	8	5	3	13	12
Batting
3B - Chris Taylor (1)
HR - Manny Machado (1)
TB - Chris Taylor 5, Manny Machado 5, Matt Kemp 2, Yasmani Grandal
RBI - Chris Taylor (1), Manny Machado 3 (3), Matt Kemp (1)
2-Out RBI - Chris Taylor (1), Manny Machado 2 (2), Matt Kemp (1)
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out - Justin Turner (1), Yasiel Puig (1), Cody Bellinger (1)
Team LOB - 6
Fielding
E - Yasmani Grandal 2 (2, Catcher interference), Chris Taylor (1), Justin Turner (1)
PB - Yasmani Grandal 2 (2)

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	ERA
Clayton Kershaw (L 0-1)	3.0	6	5	4	2	2	1	12.00
Ryan Madson	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.00
Dylan Floro	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	0	0.00
Pedro Baez	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	0	0.00
Julio Urias	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	1	9.00
Kenta Maeda	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.00
Pitches-Strikes - Clayton Kershaw 74-53, Ryan Madson 14-10, Dylan Floro 19-12, Pedro Baez 19-13, Julio Urias 24-14, Kenta Maeda 14-8
Ground Balls-Fly Balls - Clayton Kershaw 5-1, Ryan Madson 0-1, Dylan Floro 1-0, Pedro Baez 0-0, Julio Urias 1-0, Kenta Maeda 2-0
Batters Faced - Clayton Kershaw 18, Ryan Madson 4, Dylan Floro 4, Pedro Baez 4, Julio Urias 5, Kenta Maeda 3
Inherited Runners-Scored - Ryan Madson 1-1

Milwaukee

Hitters	Pos	AB	R	H	RBI	BB	K	LOB	Avg
Lorenzo Cain	CF	5	1	3	0	0	0	1	.600
Christian Yelich	RF	4	0	0	0	1	3	4	.000
Ryan Braun	LF	4	0	1	1	0	1	4	.250
Jesus Aguilar	1B	3	1	1	1	0	0	2	.333
Hernan Perez	2B	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	.000
Travis Shaw	PH-2B	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	.500
Mike Moustakas	3B	4	0	1	0	0	1	3	.250
Manny Pina	C	2	1	1	0	2	0	1	.500
Jeremy Jeffress	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Corey Knebel	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Orlando Arcia	SS	4	1	1	0	0	0	4	.250
Gio Gonzalez	SP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Brandon Woodruff	RP	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	1.000
Domingo Santana	PH	1	1	1	2	0	0	0	1.000
Josh Hader	RP	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000
Xavier Cedeno	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Joakim Soria	RP	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000
Erik Kratz	C	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	.000
Totals		33	6	11	6	3	8	19
Batting
2B - Lorenzo Cain (1)
HR - Jesus Aguilar (1), Brandon Woodruff (1)
TB - Lorenzo Cain 4, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar 4, Travis Shaw, Mike Moustakas, Manny Pina, Orlando Arcia, Brandon Woodruff 4, Domingo Santana
RBI - Ryan Braun (1), Jesus Aguilar (1), Hernan Perez (1), Brandon Woodruff (1), Domingo Santana 2 (2)
2-Out RBI - Ryan Braun (1)
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out - Ryan Braun (1), Jesus Aguilar (1), Mike Moustakas 2 (2)
SF - Hernan Perez (1)
GIDP - Christian Yelich (1), Orlando Arcia (1)
Team LOB - 8
Baserunning
SB - Domingo Santana (1, 2nd off Madson/Grandal)
Fielding
PB - Manny Pina (1)

Pitchers	IP	H	R	ER	BB	K	HR	ERA
Gio Gonzalez	2.0	1	1	1	1	1	1	4.50
Brandon Woodruff (W 1-0)	2.0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0.00
Josh Hader (H 1)	3.0	2	0	0	0	4	0	0.00
Xavier Cedeno	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	0	27.00
Joakim Soria	0.1	1	2	2	1	1	0	54.00
Jeremy Jeffress (H 1)	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.00
Corey Knebel (SV 1)	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	0	9.00
Pitches-Strikes - Gio Gonzalez 32-17, Brandon Woodruff 27-17, Josh Hader 46-34, Xavier Cedeno 11-6, Joakim Soria 15-10, Jeremy Jeffress 11-7, Corey Knebel 22-15
Ground Balls-Fly Balls - Gio Gonzalez 3-2, Brandon Woodruff 1-1, Josh Hader 0-3, Xavier Cedeno 1-0, Joakim Soria 0-0, Jeremy Jeffress 0-0, Corey Knebel 1-0
Batters Faced - Gio Gonzalez 8, Brandon Woodruff 6, Josh Hader 11, Xavier Cedeno 2, Joakim Soria 3, Jeremy Jeffress 3, Corey Knebel 5
Inherited Runners-Scored - Joakim Soria 1-0, Jeremy Jeffress 3-3