PREDICTIONS, KEY
MATCHUPS, MORE
One round of the 2018 NFL playoffs is in the books. Now we're previewing
the divisional
game slate with a rundown for each matchup , with score predictions from my crystal ball.
Plus: Key matchups to watch for and what to know from
a sports
betting perspective
SATURDAY'S GAMES
(6) COLTS AT
(1) CHIEFS: 4:35 P.M. ET, NBC
Point spread: KC -5
Matchup quality: 70.3 (of 100)
The Chiefs don't want to talk about the 28-point lead they
blew after halftime to Andrew Luck and
the Colts in a playoff game five years ago in Indy. They don't really want to
talk about last year's 18-point collapse in the second half at home to the
Titans. Or the fact that they're 0-6 in home playoff games since Joe Montana
won one for them a quarter-century ago. They're focused on a Colts team that
has won 10 of its past 11 games and may be the hottest No. 6 seed in playoff
history. Patrick
Mahomes makes his first playoff start, but after a
50-touchdown, 5,000-yard passing season, it's hard to believe anything fazes
this young man. Yet the Colts ran for 200 yards against a tough Texans defense
last Saturday and should be able to find plenty of room to run against a much
more permissive Kansas City D.
My win projection: KC, 74.9 percent. There
should be plenty of offense in this game, as Mahomes (50) and Luck (39)
combined for 89 passing scores this regular season, the most in any QB matchup
in postseason history, according to Elias Sports Bureau research. While the
Colts' defense has been better as of late, ranking fifth in the NFL in
efficiency during their 10-1 stretch, Kansas City has the edge, according to
FPI (No. 1 offense in terms of efficiency at 85.1 and the league leader in
Total QBR in Mahomes at 81.6).
Matchup to watch: Marlon Mack vs.
the Chiefs' front seven. The Kansas City defense ranked No. 27 versus the run
during the regular season, giving up 132.1 yards per game. Look for the Colts
to lean on their power running game with Mack. Block down and pull. The idea
here is to control the line of scrimmage, eat clock and limit possessions for
Mahomes. Let those big boys go to work up front.
Betting nuggets: The Colts are 6-0 both against
the spread and straight up in their six games against teams with a winning
record this season. Andy Reid, on the other hand, has lost outright in each of
his past four games as a home favorite in the postseason, including twice with
Kansas City.
Officiating scouting report: Referee John Hussey
averaged 14.6 flags per game during the regular season, fifth
fewest in the NFL. That frequency will be tested by the Chiefs, who were the
most penalized team in the league (163). Their defensive secondary was
especially grabby, committing a league-high 24 fouls for defensive holding; the
rest of the league averaged just 9.8.
MY PICK: The Colts have been the NFL's stingiest
defense since Week 7, giving up an average of 16.4 points per game over that
span. But they also haven't faced a team with the scoring ability of Kansas
City. The Chiefs are first in the league in yards per game (425.6), yards per
play (6.84) and points per game (35.3). But the opportunity to run the ball
will be there for the Colts, as the Chiefs were 31st in the league (5.0 yards
allowed per carry), which would keep Mahomes on the sideline. It wouldn't be
shocking if the Colts won, but the Chiefs get the slight edge because they're
playing at home. Chiefs 34, Colts 30
(4) COWBOYS
AT (2) RAMS: 8:15 P.M. ET, FOX
Point spread: LAR -7.5
Matchup quality: 61.8 (of 100)
Dallas is 8-1 at home this season and just 3-5 on the road,
so the question is whether the Cowboys can get control of the game without the
help of their own friendly confines. The Rams allowed a higher yards-per-rush
average than any other team in the league this season, so it's possible Ezekiel Elliott can get something going against L.A.'s
aggressive, pursuing defensive front. But the Rams appear set to get their own
star running back, Todd Gurley, back for this game and are coming off a bye week.
They should have answers for Dallas' young linebackers and fearsome defensive
line led by DeMarcus Lawrence. The Rams were in the playoffs last season
and felt they didn't play their best in a first-round loss to Atlanta. What did
Sean McVay's crew learn from that experience?
My win projection: LAR, 78.7 percent. The Rams
finished the regular season ranked first in offensive efficiency in the NFC,
according to FPI (78.1), but also should cause Dak Prescott and
the Cowboys problems on the defensive side of the field. The Rams ranked second
in the NFL in ESPN's pass rush win rate (how often a pass-rusher is able to
beat his block within 2.5 seconds), using data from NFL's Next Gen Stats. This
is thanks in large part to Aaron Donald,
who led all players with a PRWR of 46 percent this season.
Matchup to watch: The Rams' first-down
play-action vs. the Cowboys' defense. The Rams' foundational pass concepts
start with play-action off the outside zone run look. It allows L.A. to create
voids in coverage schemes, with Jared Goff throwing
on rhythm to Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods.
If the Cowboys lean on their core zone coverages, McVay can dial up early-down
play-action to attack the middle of the field.
Betting nuggets: The Cowboys have won each of
their three games as an underdog of at least seven points outright this season.
And Goff is 4-11-1 ATS in 16 career starts against teams with a winning record,
including 0-3-1 ATS this season.
Officiating scouting report: Referee John Parry
threw the second-most flags for roughing the passer (11), a notable
total in a game that includes the Rams' aggressive defensive front. The Rams
were called for six such penalties, second most in the league.
My pick: The Rams' run defense is certainly a
concern facing the NFL's leading rusher in Elliott. However, it can't be
overlooked that the Rams' defense has made late-game stops throughout the
season when it has needed to in crunch time. As for their own running game,
teammates said Gurley appeared strong and fresh in his first practices back
from a knee issue that had kept him sidelined since Week 16. Rams 32,
Cowboys 28
SUNDAY'S GAMES
(5) CHARGERS
AT (2) PATRIOTS: 1:05 P.M. ET, CBS
Point spread: NE -4
Matchup quality: 76.5 (of 100)
The Patriots at home in January coming off a bye feels like
easy money. Philip Rivers is
0-7 in his career against Tom Brady,
and the Patriots are tried-and-true playoff blue bloods. But these Chargers are
9-0 this season when they've had to travel outside of Los Angeles. Flying to
Baltimore last week, back home Sunday night and back to New England this week
might bother some teams, but it's not likely to make much difference to Anthony
Lynn's road warriors. Will Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley have an
ingenious new game plan to combat Brady and the New England running game, as he
did last week against the Ravens? And what aspect of the Chargers' diverse
offense will Bill Belichick scheme to take away? It may be now or never for
Rivers, who has his best team in years and a chance for a sweet late-career
addition to his legacy.
My win projection: NE, 65.0 percent. The
Patriots are the smallest favorite in this round, according to FPI, but were
also the only team to go undefeated at home this regular season. New England
finished fourth in offensive efficiency (78.4) and second in defensive
efficiency (80.5) at home, according to FPI. Rivers was second in the NFL in
QBR in road games during the regular season (81.3) and posted a 78.3 at
Baltimore in the wild-card round.
Matchup to watch: Belichick vs. Rivers.
Let's keep an eye on the coverage schemes and rotations Belichick draws up to
limit Rivers' ability to throw intermediate cuts off high-low concepts. In the
Chargers' playbook, Rivers can work two-level reads inside, which puts
defenders in conflict -- and that leads to open windows. New England's
linebackers and secondary must take away his ability to make high-percentage
throws with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on
inside breaking routes.
Betting nuggets: The Chargers have won outright
in each of their past five games as an underdog and are led by Rivers, who is
6-1 ATS with four outright wins in seven career postseason starts as an
underdog. As for the total, eight of the Patriots' past nine games have gone
under.
Officiating scouting report: Referee Ron
Torbert's regular-season crew threw the second-lowest total of flags (13.7 per game) this season.
That increases the likely possibility of a low-flag game. The Patriots finished
the season tied for seventh in the NFL with 113 penalties. The Chargers ranked
No. 14 with 124.
My pick: The Bolts will have to play a
near-perfect game on the road to earn a victory. However, with a veteran
coaching staff and two edge rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin
Ingram, who can pressure Brady, the Chargers have a chance to
pull off the upset. The key for the Chargers will be limiting mistakes and
scoring touchdowns on offense. The Patriots allowed 4.9 rushing yards per play
during the regular season, tied for third worst in the NFL, which bodes well
for Melvin Gordon.
New England also allowed 59 passing plays of 20-plus yards in 2018, so the
Chargers' receivers should create some explosive plays down the field. Chargers
24, Patriots 21
(6) EAGLES AT
(1) SAINTS: 4:40 P.M. ET, FOX
Point spread: NO -8
Matchup quality: 60.4 (of 100)
To get to last year's Super Bowl, the Eagles had to win two
home playoff games. To get to this year's big game, Nick Foles &
Co. have to win three road playoff games. One down and two to go, with the help
of a Soldier Field upright, but this week's trip to the Superdome may be the
toughest test yet. They'll see a rested Saints team that finished in the top
five in the league in rushing and passing offense for the second
year in a row. If the Saints' offensive line can keep the Eagles' defensive
front from wrecking the game with the pass rush, Drew Brees should
have plenty of time to pick apart Philadelphia's decimated secondary. New
Orleans would be wise to build a big lead, though. Based on the past two
postseasons, the last thing you want to do is put the ball in Foles' hands late
in a close game.
My win projection: NO, 80.9 percent. The Saints
are the biggest favorite of the weekend, thanks largely to their offensive
prowess at home this season. Brees posted a league-leading 89.7 Total QBR in
home games this season, the second highest since ESPN began tracking QBR in
2006 (Aaron Rodgers,
90.5 in 2011), leading the Saints to the second-best offensive efficiency in
home games (85.0), according to FPI. One ray of hope for Philadelphia is that
the Saints had a 30.4 defensive efficiency at home, second worst in the league.
Matchup to watch: Brees vs. Avonte Maddox.
Maddox is an aggressive corner with the transition speed to break downhill on
the ball. He's going to close in a hurry. But that also leads to opportunities
to run double moves at the young cornerback. If Maddox is sitting on the slant
or the quick out -- like we saw in the wild-card matchup against Chicago --
look for Brees to target the rookie with a double move over the top.
Betting nuggets: The Eagles have won outright in
each of Foles' past six starts as an underdog, with four of those wins coming
in the postseason. As for the total, the over is 9-0 in the Saints' nine
postseason games played in Superdome.
Officiating scouting report: Referee Carl
Cheffers' crew gets two of the least-penalized teams in the NFL. The Saints had
the second-fewest penalties (109), and the Eagles ranked No. 6 (112). Officials
did nab the Saints for 20 defensive pass interference (DPI) calls, second most
in the league, but Cheffers' regular-season crew made the second-fewest such calls (nine), and overall had the lowest
combined total of DPI, illegal contact and defensive holding (27).
My pick: Of course I don't expect another 48-7
rout like their last meeting two months ago, but the Saints do have a lot going
in their favor as the No. 1 seed. Most importantly, their banged-up offensive
line has had time to rest, which should help their offense get back on track
and help nullify Philly's terrific front four. New Orleans' receiving corps is
also healthier with Ted Ginn Jr.
coming back late in the season, and a refreshed Alvin Kamara should
play a huge part in the passing game. Last but not least, the Saints are at
home, where they have averaged 40 points per game in the past five games that
Brees played. The Saints are 5-0 in the Superdome in the playoffs during the
Sean Payton-Brees era. Saints 30, Eagles 20
