Typically, MLB trade activity picks up in earnest after the
draft. This year, the Seattle
Mariners and Tampa Bay
Rays got things started a little
early, and then the Washington
Nationals and Kansas City
Royals completed another trade
of significance, but the bulk of the trade deadline-related action
is still out in front of us. Which means, for certain teams in the league, it
will be decision time. We know that there are obvious buyers, and we know that
there are obvious sellers. But, what of the teams in the middle? And among the
sellers, how much should they sell? July is a month when some teams look short
term, while others look long term. The next rebuilders are still trying to
figure it out.
Let's address that. From MLB's 30 teams, I deleted every
team currently occupying a playoff spot, then every team within a few games of
a playoff spot and every team that's already rebuilding. That leaves us with 10
clubs, all of which face a decision. The playoffs, in 2018, are extraordinarily
unlikely for them. Is it time to rebuild, or is it time to reload? Then, we
rank those 10 clubs in order of how urgently they should be looking to sell.
When it comes to affordable, contract-year players, all 10
teams should be looking to sell, but that's not only what we're getting at
here. These teams are ranked in order of rebuild readiness, from most to least.
I don't think all 10 should start to rebuild. No decision to rebuild should be
made lightly or easily, given the consequences on the field and at the box
office. Sometimes it's simply the right thing to do. So let's kick this off
with a gimme.
1. PITTSBURGH
PIRATES: It has been both an encouraging and
disappointing season in Pittsburgh. The fan base was dealt a blow when Gerrit Cole and Andrew
McCutchen were traded, and there were accusations that the
Pirates were trying to tank. As is, the club is hanging around .500, which
you'd think would be OK, but the team was once 26-17. The fun of the hot start
has been forgotten, as the Pirates have slipped out of the wild-card hunt.
The available rentals, though, come down to
shortstop Mercer and utilityman Sean Rodriguez.
Everyone else is under control for at least 2019, and you can see the promise
in Colin Moran or Joe Musgrove.
The Cole trade netted a solid return, and this is still a roster populated with
a lot of young players. Austin
Meadows might even be ready to be an everyday player. The
Pirates needn't take much of a step back. They can accept that 2018 isn't their
year, but they can be better the next time around. The club still has a strong
foundation.
2. BALTIMORE
ORIOLES: If the Orioles aren't the worst team in
baseball, they probably will be soon. That's because absolutely no one on the
roster should be protected, and the best player in the bunch is a few months
away from free agency. Manny Machado is
never going to stay in Baltimore, so it's only a matter of time until he should
get traded. And that should be only the start of it. Players like Chris Davis are
untradeable, and certain others like Dylan Bundy would
sting, but this is the reality the Orioles face: They're the worst team in a
division with two juggernauts, and when my colleagues at FanGraphs
released a midseason
top-131 prospect list, Baltimore didn't have a single entry. The
major league product is bad. The minor league product is bad. Rebuilding isn't
an easy decision, but it doesn't get any easier than it should be for the O's.
There's nothing to cling to.
Given the state of things, the Orioles are likely to be down
for a while. I think they'll be down for a while regardless of how deep the
rebuild goes, and because of that, I don't know why it shouldn't be thorough.
The organization almost needs to start from scratch. With luck, maybe it could
be competitive again in only a few years, but 2023 would be more realistic. If
even then. The most hopeful thing for the Orioles right now is that the
long-term baseball future is unknowable.
3. TEXAS RANGERS: The
Orioles are the only automatic rebuilder here. The situation for the Rangers
isn't quite so dire, especially because they share a division with only one
juggernaut. Still, of everyone in the American League West, the Rangers
probably have the worst outlook, which is why they should be looking to be
active, and to be active soon.
Cole Hamels should
be traded. Elvis Andrus could
and should be traded. Adrian Beltre should
be shipped to a winner, and then you go on down the line, ticking off names. I
don't know if anyone here should be considered untouchable. There's not a lot
of long-term value on the present-day roster, and then you can combine that
with a farm system that's likely still among the league's bottom third. It's
about time for the Rangers to lean into it. To accept that means it will be a
few years before the club can again think of the playoffs.
That said, there's more of a glimmer of hope in Texas than
Baltimore. Jurickson
Profar is coming back to life, and Nomar Mazara is
only 23 years old. Nevertheless, it's hard to spot the stars, be those the
stars of today or the stars of tomorrow. The Rangers should consider their own
deep rebuild, from which they might emerge around 2022. The Astros can't be
amazing forever.
4. NEW YORK METS: It's
complicated. Two things are true about the Mets. One, they are bad. Two, you
can see how they could be good again next season. You can look at the pitching
staff and daydream, if you want to. The trouble is, these exact same things
could have been written a year ago -- and were! Yet the Mets once again have
cratered, once again in large part because of injury problems. It hasn't helped
that they haven't gotten much from kids such as Amed Rosario and Dominic Smith.
A team like this can't go anywhere without effective young reinforcements.
I don't think the Mets should blow it all up. I think
they're too talented to do that, and I think they're in too large a market to
blow it all up. There's little justification for a rebuild in New York. That
being said, the Braves and Phillies will only continue to improve, and if
you're the Mets you have to think about every power starting pitcher as a
short-term asset, not a long-term one. As such, I'm in favor of trading one
of Jacob deGrom or Noah
Syndergaard. With either, the Mets could get a premium return for
someone who would be the best available starting pitcher at the deadline. That
would help the farm, and the Mets could still squint and imagine their having a
shot at a wild-card berth in 2019. They just have to stay healthy. Or, at
least, healthier.
5. TORONTO BLUE
JAYS: In a lot of ways, you could look at the Blue
Jays and figure they're doomed. Compared to the Mets, their season has followed
a similar trajectory. Just like the Orioles, they're looking up at the Yankees
and the Red Sox, and they'll be doing so for the foreseeable future. It's been
a season of great disappointment. But there are two primary reasons why I don't
think the Jays should tear it down totally.
One of them is named Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and the other is
named Bo Bichette. These are two of the top five or 10 prospects in baseball,
and they should be ready to make a difference in 2019. To say nothing of, say,
Danny Jansen. The Jays shouldn't hesitate at all to move the rentals, veterans
such as J.A. Happ or Marco Estrada.
And maybe, just maybe, Josh
Donaldson will come back from the disabled list and show enough
to generate interest. But there's no sense in making the bigger moves
anyway. Marcus
Stroman's stock is down. The same goes for Aaron Sanchez.
The Jays should think about short-term trades, and they shouldn't rule out
wild-card contention next year. It won't be easy, but it should be within their
reach.
6. OAKLAND
ATHLETICS: We've reached something of a dividing
line. The A's are in third place in the AL's wild-card hunt, but it's a distant
third behind the Mariners. Because of that, the A's almost certainly won't make
this year's playoffs. Now, I don't think the A's ever necessarily expected to
make this year's playoffs, and this is a team that's on the rise. The A's
absolutely shouldn't think about rebuilding; there's too much high-level talent
in place. But that doesn't mean there won't still be certain decisions to make.
Khris Davis might
appeal to a contender in a pinch. It wouldn't be a shock at all to see Jed Lowrie get
moved, with Franklin Barreto replacing him. But the key question to me will
involve Blake Treinen.
Treinen has developed into one of the best high-leverage relief pitchers in
either league, and he's under team control through 2020. The A's could market
Treinen as something similar to what Zach Britton used
to be. Because Treinen is under team control, you might say the A's should keep
him, with a run next year in mind. But relief pitchers break down so easily and
suddenly that it might be right for the A's to cash in this month. If someone
makes a big offer for Treinen, having gotten annoyed by the Padres' demands
for Brad Hand,
it will be hard for the A's to say no.
7. LOS ANGELES
ANGELS: The Angels shouldn't rebuild. I noted that I
don't think the A's should rebuild. None of the teams listed after the A's
should rebuild. All of the reasons are a little bit different, but for the
Angels, as much as 2018 has been sunk due to injury, you just can't in good
conscience give up on a team in possession of Mike Trout.
You can't give up on a team with Shohei Ohtani and Andrelton
Simmons. Even if Ohtani needs surgery, even if Ohtani is only a
hitter for now, there's too much here, and remember, even though the Angels are
nowhere close to the Mariners in the standings, the teams have nearly identical
run differentials. This easily could have gone differently.
With this year just about dead, I don't know why the Angels
would hesitate to trade Garrett
Richards, once he's healthy. The same goes for other, less appealing
rentals. Few available starters could compare to the level of Richards' raw
stuff, and that would be good for generating deadline attention. The Angels,
this season, don't have much to play for. Next season, they could be right back
in the mix. It's not like the Mariners are really this good.
8. MINNESOTA
TWINS: In 2017, when the Twins made it to the
wild-card game, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton combined to be worth 5.8 wins
above replacement (FanGraphs blend). In 2018, they've combined for minus-0.5
fWAR. Both of them are getting reps in the minors. That's bad, for both the
present and the future, and to make matters worse, Brian Dozier is
a pending free agent. So is Eduardo
Escobar. So is Joe Mauer.
Next year's Twins could look like a different team. With this year being shot,
there's little reason not to explore the trade market. But!
The Twins play in the AL Central. It's likely that, next
year, the Royals, White Sox and Tigers will again be bad. And while the Indians
won't be bad, they're expected to lose the best arms out of their bullpen. So
because of the divisional context, the Twins shouldn't want to take too far of
a step back. They can benefit from a light slate of opponents again in 2019,
and because of that, the front office should think more in terms of reloading
than rebuilding. The division already has enough teams in rebuild mode.
9. COLORADO
ROCKIES: The Rockies shouldn't rebuild because
they're still on the edge of the race. The Rockies shouldn't rebuild because
just last year they made the playoffs. The Rockies shouldn't rebuild because
they don't have that much to move right now anyway. If they really wanted to, I
suppose, they could try to trade Nolan Arenado,
but he'd be competing with the Manny Machado market. More importantly, why do
that? While the Rockies aren't great, only Carlos
Gonzalez, Adam Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu are
in their contract years. The Diamondbacks and Giants are likely to take a step
back in 2019.
If the Rockies were to fade even more, it would make sense
to move Ottavino. He'd be pursued by at least 10 teams. Otherwise, next year's
team could come back and look very similar, and this is a cost-controlled
pitching staff that has been let down by a still extremely talented Jon Gray.
If Gray's ERA looked more like you would expect given his other numbers, the
Rockies would be even closer to a playoff spot than they are. And no one would
be talking about a possible need to rebuild.
10. TAMPA BAY RAYS: As with the Pirates, the
Rays were accused of trying to tank during the offseason. As I write this, they
have more wins than losses, and that's despite suffering seemingly countless
injuries to the pitching staff. That's despite playing in the intimidating AL
East. If it weren't for the Mariners so dramatically outplaying their run
differential, the Rays would be in the playoff conversation today. They're not,
but that's not their fault. The team has done an admirable job of
overachieving, of demonstrating all the reasons why 2019 is looking so hopeful.
The Rays still haven't traded Chris Archer,
and they haven't done it because they've been reloading this whole time.
They've been trying to hold out for the next wave, and now the next wave is arriving.
There's Jake Bauers,
there's Willy Adames,
there's Blake Snell and Daniel
Robertson. Brent Honeywell will be back from Tommy John at some
point. From the Rays' perspective, you can see why 2019 could become a playoff
season. And because of that, there's no reason to tear down now. Not right
before they get where they're going.
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