BIG 12 FOOTBALL 2018 PREVIEW

BREAKOUT STARS, BIGGEST GAMES, PREDICTIONS

Baker Mayfield is gone but the Big 12 has plenty of star power but will that result in one of the league’s teams making the College Football Playoff?

Long known for its offensive firepower–and lack of quality defense–the Big 12 enters the 2018 season in a state of uncertainty.

The loss of several the league’s top passers means most of the top teams have question marks at the sport’s most important position.

Oklahoma–again considered the favorite–enters the season without Heisman trophy winner and no. 1 pick in the NFL draft Baker Mayfield. The Sooners will try to replace Mayfield with Kyler Murray, a two-sport athlete who was drafted with the 9th pick in the MLB draft by the Oakland Athletics and has already decided to play baseball after his last year as a college football player.

Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, TCU’s Kenny Hill, and Texas Tech’s Nic Shimonek have also moved on. Texas and Kansas State couldn’t settle on one starting quarterback throughout the 2017 season, and that uncertainty has continued into 2018. Iowa State brings back starter Kyle Kempt, but he needs to make a sizable improvement to be considered as one of the conference’s top passers.

The one premier starting quarterback returning to the league was named the Big 12 preseason Offensive Player of the Year.

OFFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR – WILL GRIER, QB, WEST VIRGINIA

With the rest of the conference’s top quarterbacks off to the NFL, Grier decided to return to the college level as the Big 12’s top passer. Grier threw for 3,490 yards in 2017, good for 20th in the nation, despite missing two games and the large majority of a third.

Grier was extremely consistent running Dana Holgorsen offense, throwing for at least 285 yards in all 10 games he finished. The Mountaineers couldn’t overcome the loss of their leader, as they went 7-3 in those 10 games but lost all three of their games without him.

Grier’s college career has seen its ups and downs. It began at Florida in 2014, competing for the starting quarterback job. He redshirted that year and was embroiled in another competition in 2015. A few games after he cemented his place as the starter, he was suspended for one year by the NCAA for using performance-enhancing drugs.

Grier then decided to transfer and announced the next Spring West Virginia would be his next stop. He sat out the 2016 season as a transfer and entered the 2017 season as the starter.

He enters the 2018 season on the Davey O’Brien Award (nation’s best quarterback) watch list, and also among the top candidates for the Heisman Trophy.

Also in consideration for the Big 12’s top offensive player are Grier’s favorite target, West Virginia wide receiver David Sills V, and running backs Justice Hill from Oklahoma State, Rodney Anderson from Oklahoma, and David Montgomery from Iowa State, who Pro Football Focus ranks as the third-best player returning to college football.

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR-BEN BANOGU, DL, TCU

In a conference known for its offense, the best defense in the Big 12 belongs to the TCU Horned Frogs. In 2017, TCU had the conference’s top two performers in sacks in Mat Boesen (11.5 sacks) and Banogu (8.5). While Boesen is now chasing down quarterbacks for the Buffalo Bills, Banogu returns to try to lead TCU to the top of the Big 12.

Also a transfer, Banogu started his college career at Louisiana-Monroe. After posting three sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovery during his freshman season in 2015, Banogu wanted to find a bigger college program to ply his trade. He found TCU, and sat out the 2016 season for transferring.

Teaming with Boesen, Banogu terrorized opposing offenses last year. He added 16.5 tackles for loss to go with his 8.5 sacks, earning first-team all-conference honors.

Also among the Big-12’s top defenders are Kansas defensive lineman Daniel Wise, Texas Tech linebacker Dakota Allen, and Iowa State cornerback Brian Peavy.

FRESHMAN OF THE YEAR-BRENDAN RADLEY-HILES, CB, OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma’s defense was up and down in 2017, eventually costing the team a spot in the national title game by giving up four second-half touchdowns against Georgia in the national semifinal.

They hope to get help in 2018 from Big-12 preseason Newcomer of the Year Brendan Radley-Hiles. The 5’10”, 183-pound defensive back graduated from IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida as a five-star recruit.

Radley-Hiles, known as “Bookie”, played cornerback in high school, but may see time at safety for the Sooners.

Defensive backs coach Kerry Cooks was impressed by Bookie early on, according to the Norman Transcript, “Bookie is a very calm player, very smart football player,” Cooks said. “His personality, his knowledge of the game, coupled with his athleticism makes you feel more comfortable with putting a true freshman out on the field.”

“You can see his confidence, his ability to see the field,” Defensive coordinator Mike Stoops added. 

“He’s a natural playmaker. The game comes pretty natural to him. He just has a unique feel on the field.”

Still, moving from the high school level to a Power 5 conference is not a small task. “There’s still a lot of learning. He’d the first one to tell you that,” Stoops continued. “He’s done a great job in the film room and studies hard. Conceptually, he picks things up well, but just understanding field space, you want to be reactive, you don’t want to think when they game is being played. That’s the only thing he’s really missing right now, his body memorization of how these plays go, what you see and how you see it.”

The Sooners will need to rely on their defense more in 2018 with the transition to a new quarterback on offense.

BREAKOUT STAR TO WATCH-KYLER MURRAY, QB, OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma hopes Murray is the breakout player in the Big 12. He certainly has big enough shoes to fill. Mayfield threw for 12,292 yards and 119 touchdowns as the three-year starter for the Sooners.

Murray has an elite pedigree, as he was a five-star recruit out of Allen, Texas in 2015. He started his career at Texas A&M in 2015, sharing time at quarterback with Kyle Allen. As an Aggie, Murray completed 72-of-121 passes for 686 yards, with a 5-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Serving as Mayfield’s backup, Murray made three appearances for Oklahoma in 2017. Two in blowout wins and one when Mayfield served a partial-game suspension. He completed 18-of-21 passes for 359 yards and three touchdowns.

Murray is a dual-threat quarterback. He has run the ball 67 times in his college career for 477 yards, and an average of 7.1 yards per carry. As mentioned above, Murray doubles as an outfielder for the Oklahoma baseball team, and will pursue a professional career on the diamond instead of the gridiron after this season.

Oklahoma has plenty of help to offer Murray as he takes over under center. Five Sooners were named to the preseason All-Big 12 team on the offensive side of the ball. Running back Rodney Anderson, as mentioned above, is a candidate for Offensive Player of the Year. He and offensive lineman Ben Powers were named All-Big 12 Second-Team in 2017.

Wide receiver Marquise Brown, tight end Grant Calcaterra and offensive lineman Bobby Evans were also on the team and were honorable mention All-Big 12 in 2017.

COACH OF THE YEAR-LINCOLN RILEY, OKLAHOMA

2018 is the year Oklahoma could be surpassed as the Big 12’s top team. TCU’s Gary Patterson, Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy or Texas’ Tom Herman could claim this honor if their teams make a run this year.

But at this point, none of them deserve this award more than Riley. When Bob Stoops decided to retire last June, Riley had never been a head coach before and promptly took his team to the playoff and coached Baker Mayfield to the Heisman Trophy.

Riley’s Sooners put up 48 points in the double overtime loss to Georgia, just falling short of a trip to the national title game and enter this season with unfinished business.

Now, Riley will try to repeat that success with a new quarterback. The soon-to-be 35-year old will turn his offense over to Murray. Stoops built up a program that remains the Big 12 favorite, despite the turnover on offense. It will be up to Riley to keep the ship sailing.

GAME OF THE YEAR – OKLAHOMA AT TCU

The conference’s top two teams meet October 20 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The Sooners won both matchups against the Horned Frogs in 2017, first 38-20 in the regular season matchup in Norman, then 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game.

Both teams will have extra rest going into the game. TCU plays on Thursday against Texas Tech the week before. Oklahoma will be coming off a bye week after the Red River Shootout against Texas Oct. 6.

Banogu will lead what should be the best defense in the conference against what Riley hopes is the best offense in the conference. The game could be decided by what TCU’s offense can do against Oklahoma’s defense.

Shawn Robinson has been named the Horned Frogs starter after Kenny Hill graduated. He will lead an offense that features explosive playmakers Darius Anderson, Jalen Reagor and KaVontae Turpin.

Leading the Sooners defense will be linebacker Kenneth Murray, cornerback Parnell Motley and defensive end Kenneth Mann. If they can hold the TCU offense to 20 points or less as they did in both 2017 meetings, Oklahoma will likely come out on top.

This meeting could once again be only a preview of the conference championship game.

PREDICTED ORDER OF FINISH

The conference is deep, as eight or nine of its 10 teams should be competitive (sorry Kansas). They play a full round robin schedule, so there should be plenty of good matchups throughout the season.

Oklahoma is still the favorite, but they are vulnerable with their losses on offense.

TCU leads a second tier with four teams that could steal the conference crown. Texas, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia are the other contenders.

Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech won’t be pushovers. They will likely land in the six to eight win range.

Baylor is a wild card, getting to a bowl game is a likely attainable goal.

Kansas gonna Kansas.

BIG 12CONFERENCE STANDINGS
CHAMPION: OKLAHOMA	OVERALL	COFERENCE
OKLAHOMA	W 11 L 1	W 8 L 1
TCU	W 9 L 3	W 7 L 2
WEST VIRGINIA	W 9 L 3	W 6 L 3
OKLAHOMA STATE	W 8 L 4	W 5 L 4
KANSAS STATE	W 7 L 5	W 5 L 4
TEXAS	W 7 L 5	W 4 L 5
TEXAS TECH	W 7 L 5	W 3 L 6
BAYLOR	W 5 L 7	W 2 L 7
KANSAS	W 2 L 10	W 0 L 9

CONFERENCE CHAMPION – OKLAHOMA SOONERS

It might be more likely that Oklahoma doesn’t win the conference in 2018. But there’s not another single team that should have better odds. As much as it may seem like they’ve dominated this preview, 2018 could be the year they are overtaken in the Big 12.

Murray is a bit of an unknown at quarterback, and his story is unique as he prepares for a professional baseball career after this season. While it might be impossible for anyone to fill Baker Mayfield’s shoes, he is a former five-star recruit with starting experience. The offense could still be the conference’s most talented, and could be the best with Riley at the controls.

Ideally, the defense would be more consistent while Murray gets his footing. Last year, they allowed 12.3 points per game over their first three games against UTEP, Ohio State and Tulane. Then they allowed 36.2 over their first six games of conference play. In their last four games before their loss to Georgia, they were solid again, limiting TCU, Kansas, West Virginia (without Grier) and TCU again to 17.8 points per game.