As I prepare for tipoff of the 2018-19 NBA season Tuesday
night, what should I expect? My projections based on my real plus-minus give an indication after another busy offseason of player movement.
As compared to the preliminary projections I posted
back in August, the final versions differ in two important ways.
First, they incorporate injuries and transactions since
then, as well as changes in my playing time estimates. That most notably
affects the Spurs, who lost starting point guard Dejounte Murray to a torn ACL
during the preseason and also will be without his replacement -- the injured
Derrick White -- for an extended period.
Second, instead of simply reflecting the talent level of the
roster, these projections also factor in the schedule. I have used them to
simulate the season 1,000 times based on the past uncertainty in RPM
projections and will report both the average number of wins and the percentage
of the time teams make the playoffs. With that introduction, let's start by
running through the EAST and then move to the WEST.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. TORONTO RAPTORS
AVERAGE WINS: 55
PLAYOFFS: 100 percent
After the addition of Kawhi Leonard -- estimated to play 65
games after missing all but seven in 2017-18 -- the Raptors join the Warriors
as the other team projected in the top five in both offensive and defensive
rating, after having been the only team to do so last season.
2. BOSTON CELTICS
AVERAGE WINS: 53
PLAYOFFS: 99
percent
Though the average projection would be a decline from the 55
games the Celtics won last season, it would reflect an improvement on their
point differential, which was typical of a 51-win team. Boston lags in part
because of a conservative projection for Gordon Hayward coming off his
fractured fibula, as well as an implicit assumption that the Celtics' 3-point
defense will regress to the mean. Boston has been an exception in this regard,
ranking in the top five in opponent 3-point percentage throughout Brad Stevens'
tenure as coach.
3. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
AVERAGE WINS: 48
PLAYOFFS: 97
percent
Like the Celtics, the Sixers are projected to win fewer
games on average despite a youthful rotation. More minutes for Fultz, projected as a below-average
contributor, are a factor. So too is the addition of Wilson Chandler, who rated
poorly with the Nuggets.
4. MILWAUKEE BUCKS
AVERAGE WINS: 46
PLAYOFFS: 94
percent
Based solely on the talent on the roster, I forecast a
modest jump for the Bucks, who finished seventh with 44 wins a year ago and
were slightly outscored on the season. This doesn't factor in the impact of new
coach Mike Budenholzer, who helped Milwaukee produce a much more efficient shot
chart in the preseason than in past years.
5. INDIANA PACERS
AVERAGE WINS: 46
PLAYOFFS: 93
percent
I essentially have Indiana and Milwaukee tied, with the
winner likely to top the Central Division, for what it's worth. (Basically,
just a division champions banner.)
6. WASHINGTON WIZARDS
AVERAGE WINS: 44
PLAYOFFS: 84
percent
With the addition of Dwight Howard and (likely) better
health from John Wall, the Wizards' offensive projection improves slightly to
ninth in the league after they finished 14th in offensive rating a year ago.
But Washington still looks like an average defensive team.
7. MIAMI HEAT
AVERAGE WINS: 43
PLAYOFFS: 80
percent
The Heat win the "least changed" award. Having
made no additions to the roster this offseason -- save players on two-way
contracts (Yante Maten and Duncan Robinson) -- Miami projects to win around 43
games with an offense ranked 19th and a defense ranked sixth after finishing
20th and seventh a year ago and winning ... 44 games.
8. DETROIT PISTONS
AVERAGE WINS: 39
PLAYOFFS: 54
percent
The likely absence of the Cavaliers leaves a playoff spot up
for grabs in the East, and the Pistons are the slight favorites to claim it
despite a projection largely unchanged from last year's 39-win finish.
TEAMS ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
9. CHARLOTTE HORNETS
AVERAGE WINS: 39
PLAYOFFS: 47
percent
The Hornets are the other team strongly in the mix to go
from the lottery to the playoffs in the East. Though Charlotte won 36 games
last season, the team outscored opponents, so a below-.500 RPM projection
actually reflects a slight decline over the summer.
10. BROOKLYN NETS
AVERAGE WINS: 37
PLAYOFFS: 31
percent
Consider the Nets also in the mix for a playoff spot in the
East. A good start is crucial, because if the Nets are out of the playoff mix
in February, they might choose to deal veterans on expiring contracts (DeMarre
Carroll, Ed Davis).
11. ORLANDO MAGIC
AVERAGE WINS: 34
PLAYOFFS: 13
percent
By virtue of internal development, the Magic figure to
improve on their 2017-18 total of 25 wins. They've reached 30 wins only once
since trading Howard in 2012, winning 35 games in 2015-16.
12. CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
AVERAGE WINS: 32
PLAYOFFS: 6
percent
What a difference a year makes. Without LeBron, the
Cavaliers are distinct long shots to return to the postseason. And,
troublingly, there might be a lingering James effect in his teammates' stats.
In 2010-11, Cleveland would have been projected for 45 wins after LeBron left
for Miami. The Cavaliers actually won just 19 games, the biggest in the past
nine seasons.
13. NEW YORK KNICKS
AVERAGE WINS: 29
PLAYOFFS: 1
percent
Because it now appears Kristaps Porzingis will miss most of
the season (I'm estimating 28 games played for him), New York's unadjusted
projection has declined by 2.4 wins since the original update.
14. CHICAGO BULLS
AVERAGE WINS: 28
PLAYOFFS: 1
percent
With Zach LaVine looking healthy in the preseason and Jabari
Parker playing largely at power forward, the Bulls might be able to outperform
a projection of the NBA's 25th-ranked offense. But a defense projected third
worst in the league will likely doom any hopes of threatening for a playoff
spot with the league's youngest rotation as weighted by estimated minutes
played.
15. ATLANTA HAWKS
AVERAGE WINS: 26
PLAYOFFS: 1
percent
In practice, the Hawks are almost certainly the most likely
team to finish with the NBA's worst record because they own their draft pick
and are still in the early stages of a rebuilding process.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
1. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
AVERAGE WINS:
60.3
PLAYOFFS: 100
percent
If the Warriors hit their projection, it would be a two-game
improvement over their injury-plagued 2017-18 regular season. Gamblers are
expecting an even bigger regression to their form from the previous two
seasons, as Golden State's line is 62.5 wins.
2. UTAH JAZZ
AVERAGE WINS: 53
PLAYOFFS: 99
percent
The Jazz have the league's best defensive projection by a
wide margin: 1.3 points per 100 possessions better than the next-best defensive
rating, belonging to the Raptors. Add in an offense slightly better than league
average and that's a recipe for what would be Utah's most wins since 2009-10
(53).
3. HOUSTON ROCKETS
AVERAGE WINS: 51
PLAYOFFS: 99
percent
Houston's run to the No. 1 seed and Game 7 of the conference
finals was fueled by defensive improvement. With the loss of Trevor Ariza and
Luc Mbah a Moute, I project the Rockets slipping back to barely better than
average defensively. With modest offensive regression, that puts Houston's
projection behind Utah's and barely better than the rest of the West pack.
4. DENVER NUGGETS
AVERAGE WINS: 50
PLAYOFFS: 98
percent
Denver's first 50-win season since 2012-13 would require
only a four-game improvement with a healthier Paul Millsap (limited to 38 games
in 2017-18) and improvement from the league's sixth-youngest roster (weighted
by projected minutes played). But it would feel massively different after the
Nuggets missed the 2018 playoffs on the season's final day.
5. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
AVERAGE WINS: 49
PLAYOFFS: 96
percent
Jimmy Butler's trade request and subsequent holdout is the
kind of factor a statistical projection is ill-equipped to handle. We're
treating Butler as if he'll play in Minnesota all year, in which case --
without factoring in the potential for locker room drama -- the Timberwolves
look like a contender for home-court advantage in the first round. Depending on
the return for Butler, trading him might make Minnesota underdogs to even make
the playoffs.
6. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
AVERAGE WINS: 45
PLAYOFFS: 87
percent
An additional patella procedure for starting wing Andre
Roberson, now expected to miss the first 30 games after having a loose suture
removed from his left knee, caused Oklahoma City's projection to drop by 1.1
wins. The Thunder won at a pace of nearly five fewer games over the full
schedule after Roberson's injury.
7. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS
AVERAGE WINS: 43
PLAYOFFS: 77
percent
After New Orleans, there's a bit of a step down in the West
standings, leaving the Pelicans as the last team that reaches the playoffs in
more than 75 percent of simulations.
8. LOS ANGELES LAKERS
AVERAGE WINS: 41
PLAYOFFS: 59
percent
As compared to the original projections, minor rotation
changes -- most notably seeing in the preseason that Luke Walton is serious
about playing Kyle Kuzma at center rather than one of the Lakers' traditional
5s -- push them into eighth, though with nine teams projected for at least 41
wins, that doesn't come close to guaranteeing L.A. a playoff spot. Part of the
reason the Lakers' projection is so modest in the first place (even in
comparison to other statistical projections; FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO
projections have them winning an average of 48 games) is the tendency for
players to perform worse after changing teams, as independently found by Andrew
Johnson in a Nylon Calculus piece. As I subsequently noted in comparing RPM
projections to over/under win totals at the Westgate Superbook Las Vegas, this
is consistent with how LeBron James' new teams have tended to fall far shy of
their lines during his first season there.
TEAMS ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
9. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
AVERAGE WINS: 40
PLAYOFFS: 52
percent
Because the Blazers' and Lakers' projections are so close
together, and because there's a drop after them, both teams make the playoffs
in more than 50 percent of simulations. So the fact that Portland ranks ninth
and there are eight spots doesn't mean projecting them to miss the playoffs.
10. SAN ANTONIO SPURS
AVERAGE WINS: 35
PLAYOFFS: 13
percent
Pick against the Spurs at your peril -- and they have in
fact outperformed their projection by an
average of 5.6 wins since 2010-11 -- but this is by far their weakest
projection since I started compiling preseason minutes estimates. Losing Murray
(and, temporarily, White) leaves San Antonio short on playmakers.
11. LA CLIPPERS
AVERAGE WINS: 35
PLAYOFFS: 11
percent
Although the simulations use the same variance for all
teams, the Clippers likely have an unusually high uncertainty about their
projection because of the number of injury risks on the roster (most notably
Patrick Beverley and Danilo Gallinari) and the possibility that their goal
shifts at some point this season from making the playoffs to developing young
talent.
12. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
AVERAGE WINS: 33
PLAYOFFS: 5
percent
With better health and upgrades on the wing, the Grizzlies
figure to improve defensively and project slightly better than league average
there. However, Memphis' offensive rating is projected 28th in the league,
which would doom the Grizzlies' hopes of returning to the playoffs.
13. DALLAS MAVERICKS
AVERAGE WINS: 32
PLAYOFFS: 4
percent
While 32 wins would reflect an eight-game improvement in the
standings for the Mavericks, it would actually be a game worse than the 33 wins
typical of a team with their point differential last season. Dallas could
improve on that with above-average play from rookie Luka Doncic, whose
projection is conservative because few rookies are better than, average
offensively.
14. SACRAMENTO KINGS
AVERAGE WINS: 26
PLAYOFFS: 1
percent
As compared to most teams at the bottom of the projections,
the Kings have a good chance to match theirs because they have no incentive to
improve draft positioning after trading their 2019 first-round pick -- which
will go to the Boston Celtics, unless it lands No. 1 overall, in which case the
Philadelphia 76ers keep it as part of their trade up to draft Markelle Fultz.
15. PHOENIX SUNS
AVERAGE WINS: 26
PLAYOFFS: 1
percent
Despite the addition of Ariza and No. 1 overall pick Deandre
Ayton, the Suns still project as a bottom-four offense and the worst defense in
the league after ranking last in both offensive and defensive rating in
2017-18. Note that this projection includes veteran guard Jamal Crawford, who
signed with Phoenix on Monday.
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