MY 2018 NFL SEASON SIMULATION

Football is back! As per tradition, my season simulation is full of surprises and suspense as I figure out who will clash in super bowl liii.

The NFL regular season is finally back and honestly, it couldn’t come soon enough. It’s a new year full of hope and new aspirations for all 32 teams (except Atlanta, who starts out 0-1 after Thursday’s loss in Philly.)

It also means that a new NFL season simulation is in order. This year, we’re trying something a little different. Instead of slides for every team, we’ll just be glazing over all eight divisions on the path to the postseason. However, our guidelines will be mostly the same, which you can read below:

• Absolutely no user games were played. The simulation was done in the game’s franchise mode.
• Rosters used were up to date as of September 8, 2018, after the official 53-man roster update.
• All of the screenshots were taken from unrelated exhibition games.

By the way, our Week 1 simulation is also available for your reading pleasure. We’ll have weekly simulations all throughout the season, so stay tuned for those each Thursday.

With that all out of the way, it’s time for some football!

AFC North

1. y-Pittsburgh Steelers: 11-5
2. Cleveland Browns: 8-8
3. Cincinnati Bengals: 6-10
4. Baltimore Ravens: 4-12

The Steelers taking the North, even without Le’Veon Bell, shouldn’t be too much of a surprise. The offense is still powered by Ben Roethlisberger and  Antonio Brown, after all. Given that their division is still trying to catch up, Pittsburgh will get at least one more crack at a Super Bowl run.

Cleveland, on the other hand, removed any doubt that they’d be living the hard-knock life this season. Considering the team went 0-16 last year and had generally wallowed in the bottom of the division for years, an 8-8 record isn’t too bad with many new faces coming aboard along with an exciting defense. Elsewhere, the Bengals and Ravens also missed out on the postseason, with the latter even potentially preparing for a new era at quarterback.

AFC East

1. z-New England Patriots: 12-4
2. Miami Dolphins: 8-8
3. Buffalo Bills: 6-10
4. New York Jets: 4-12

No surprises here. The Patriots are the class of the AFC East and the conference at large. Tom Brady hasn’t lost a step at all despite losing a pair of key targets. He still has Gronk, the returning Julian Edelman and a solid defense to back him up. New England is a staple of our simulation playoffs, and this year is no different.

Elsewhere, Miami actually improved to a .500 mark. Getting Ryan Tannehill back became a huge boost for a team that lost both Jarvis Landry and Ndamukong Suh in the offseason. Newcomer Danny Amendola and Kenny Stills both shined in the receiving corps for Miami. Buffalo’s playoff run won’t repeat this year, and the loss of stability in Tyrod Taylor at quarterback put the team in a state of flux.

The Jets managed to lose one more game in the sim than they did in real life last year, and there’s clearly some work to do with Sam Darnold now taking charge as the latest young quarterback in the Big Apple.

AFC South

1. y-Houston Texans: 9-7
2. x-Jacksonville Jaguars: 9-7
3. Tennessee Titans: 5-11
4. Indianapolis Colts: 5-11

Much like many seem to think, the Texans are back in the playoffs and on top of the AFC South via a two-game sweep of the Jaguars. Deshaun Watson, J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins and company have a real shot to make noise in the playoffs, both in our sim and in real life if the football gods smile upon them. The Jags also make it to the postseason as the last team in, still boasting one of the league’s best young defenses.

Much like the Bills, the Titans take a tumble from being in last year’s playoffs. Marcus Mariota still put up some decent numbers, but a defense led by big offseason acquisition Malcolm Butler cost the team more often than not. Indianapolis finds themselves tied at the bottom of the standings, but the team does finally have Andrew Lucky back under center and things could be looking up Frank Reich at the helm on the sideline.

AFC West

1. y-Kansas City Chiefs: 10-6
2. x-Los Angeles Chargers: 10-6
3. Denver Broncos: 8-8
4. Oakland Raiders: 8-8

The darlings of our way-too-early season simulation, the Chiefs come into the new year with new hope at quarterback and some big-time weapons on offense. The result of that gives them the division crown in the sim, with Patrick Mahomes performing well above expectations after Alex Smith’s departure. The Chargers also remained solid despite having one of the more unfavorable home-field “advantages” in the league.

After much talk about quarterbacks in the offseason, the Broncos entrusted Case Keenum and ended up with a .500 record. Not bad considering they lost some pieces on both sides of the ball, but keeping playmakers like Von Miller and Demaryius Thomas kept the team afloat. The Raiders reached the same mark with Jon Gruden returning to the sidelines. Oakland likely would have been a playoff team had they kept Khalil Mack at linebacker, but taking him out gave the team a much more steep mountain to climb in a pretty competitive division.

NFC East

1. z-Philadelphia Eagles: 13-3
2. x-Dallas Cowboys: 11-5
3. Washington Redskins: 9-7
4. New York Giants: 5-11

It only seems appropriate that we start where the defending Super Bowl champs lie. Through the combined effort of Carson Wentz and Nick Foles manning the offense, Philly not only repeated at the top of the NFC East but also had the league’s best record at 13-3. Dallas also returns to the playoffs, thanks to Ezekiel Elliott being able to play in every game and Dak Prescott’s improvement under center.

Alex Smith-led Washington once again finds themselves in the bottom half of the division, but a 9-7 record inversed their mark from last season. They ended up being two games out of the wild-card in what became a pretty competitive NFC. The Giants, meanwhile, improved to 5-11 behind Eli Manning and a newly-motivated Odell Beckham Jr. Saquon Barkley also put up a Rookie of the Year-caliber season with a 1,000-plus yard rushing campaign.

NFC North

1. y-Green Bay Packers: 10-6
2. Chicago Bears: 7-9
3. Minnesota Vikings: 6-10
4. Detroit Lions: 6-10

The Pack is back indeed. With a fully-healthy Aaron Rodgers under center and a fresh new target like Jimmy Graham to throw too, Green Bay got themselves back into NFC North-winning form with a 10-win campaign. The addition of Khalil Mack and the further development of Mitchell Trubisky got the Bears to a 7-9 outing under first-year head coach Matt Nagy. It’s a steady climb for a team that many think can make noise this year, only winning two more games in the simulation than they did all of last season.

The Vikings and Lions round out the division tied for the worst record. Minnesota saw some growing pains after winning the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes in the offseason. While they did get Dalvin Cook back from injury, the Vikes won’t get a chance to avenge last year’s embarrassing NFC Championship Game loss in Philadelphia.

As for Detroit, the team didn’t completely explode in its first year under Bill Belichick disciple Matt Patricia. Matthew Stafford had solid numbers and the backfield got some clarity with the addition of LeGarrette Blount as the team’s lead back along with Theo Riddick and Ameer Abdullah.

NFC South

1. y-Atlanta Falcons: 12-4
2. x-New Orleans Saints: 11-5
3. Carolina Panthers: 8-8
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 5-11

If the simulation is to be believed, the Falcons will take the NFC South crown for the second time in three seasons. The high-powered offense and solid defense returned to 2016 form, but one can only hope that this campaign doesn’t close out as that one did. The Saints snagged the final wild-card spot in the conference, with the team finding new life with Drew Brees still under center along and a solid second season for Alvin Kamara. The team’s young secondary also showed out, becoming one the league’s best.

New ownership wasn’t enough to bring Carolina back to the playoffs, as the Panthers slipped to a .500 campaign. Not having Thomas Davis for a few games took its toll on the defense, but the team was able to salvage what could have been a losing effort. The Buccaneers, meanwhile, could not escape this fate. With embattled quarterback Jameis Winston out for at least three games, the season didn’t start off well, and Tampa eventually stumbled to yet another losing season.

NFC West

1. y-Los Angeles Rams: 11-5
2. Seattle Seahawks: 6-10
3. San Francisco 49ers: 6-10
4. Arizona Cardinals: 5-11

The West actually played out similarly to the North. Los Angeles kept up their momentum from last year with another division title, primarily anchored by the monstrous defense that added the likes of Ndamukong Suh and Aqib Talib in addition to working out an extension for Aaron Donald in the offseason. As if that was enough to worry about, Todd Gurley and the offense put up great numbers to lead the Rams back to the playoffs.

The Seahawks, meanwhile, actually did better in the simulation than many expect they will in real life. With losing the Legion of Boom and several other pieces, the team got to six wins behind Russell Wilson and the backfield carrying the offense in shootouts. On the other side of the coin, many believe the new Jimmy G-led 49ers will be a dark horse. However, Madden 19 shows that the Niners have a little more work to do. The Cardinals find themselves at the bottom of the heap even with David Johnson healthy and some quarterback stability with Sam Bradford.

Playoffs

Wildcard Round

Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Kansas City Chiefs 17

Los Angeles Rams 28, Dallas Cowboys 0

Los Angeles Chargers 27, Houston Texans 14

New Orleans Saints 24, Green Bay Packers 9

Divisional Round

Jacksonville Jaguars 38, New England Patriots 17

Philadelphia Eagles 42, New Orleans Saints 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 31, Los Angeles Chargers 23

Atlanta Falcons 35, Los Angeles Rams 14

Conference Championships

Jacksonville Jaguars 28, Pittsburgh Steelers 14

Philadelphia Eagles 18, Atlanta Falcons 17

Super Bowl LIII

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Well, what a matchup this is. The Jags battled their way through the AFC wild-card and not only took down New England in revenge spot but once again topped the Steelers in the AFC championship. #Sacksonville was out in full-force, and the team would make their first-ever Super Bowl appearance in Atlanta.

The Eagles took a more familiar route back to the big game. This time they got a shot at the wild-card Saints before, once again, beating Atlanta at home in a playoff matchup. No Super Bowl hangover affected the defending champs as they marched into Mercedes-Benz Stadium in hopes of being the first team to repeat the Patriots did it in the 2003-04 seasons.

Super Bowl LIII: Jacksonville Jaguars 31, Philadelphia Eagles 24

According to my simulation, the Lombardi Trophy is making its way to“Duuuuval.” The Jaguars spoiled Philly’s repeat attempt in amazing fashion, with a finish that came down to a crucial fourth quarter.

Jacksonville found themselves down 24-21 at the start of the final period and scored 10 unanswered points, including a 13-yard touchdown pass from Blake Bortles to Keelan Cole that effectively put the game away. Bortles went on to pass for 271 yards and two other scores, earning Super Bowl MVP honors.

Leonard Fournette pounded the ball for 78 yards on 20 carries and a score of his own. And though the defense failed to get a turnover, they did rack up five sacks over the course of the game.

Nick Foles played a majority of snaps for the Eagles, throwing for 268 yards and a pair of touchdown passes to Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agaholor, respectively. Jay Ajayi also ran in a score as part of his 14-carry, 53-yard performance.