MY WEEK 2 NFL SIMULATION RESULTS

I simulate the entire slate of week two NFL games on my computer to predict the winners and losers.

I didn’t do too bad predicting the outcome of week one’s NFL games. In total, the game went 9-7 with its predictions. There were certainly some interesting outcomes last weekend so all things considered, I’d say it did pretty well.

Who could’ve predicted that the Browns would tie the Steelers? Although, to the game’s credit, it actually predicted the Browns would win, so I guess we should give it partial credit?

In any case, with week one of the 2018 NFL season in the bag, I now turn my attention to week two’s matchups. In similar fashion, I have simulated each game this week with the most up-to-date rosters used to reflect the real-life games. For injuries or questionable players, we used our best judgment to determine if we thought the player would play in the game.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at my week two simulation results.

CINCINNATI BENGALS 26, BALTIMORE RAVENS 23

Kicking off week two of the 2018 NFL season is the Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night Football. With both teams starting the season 1-0, with impressive wins (the Ravens especially), this is a highly anticipated division matchup early on that could have a major impact down the line. It did not disappoint.

A back-and-forth game saw the teams exchange four field goals in the fourth quarter. Joe Flacco (28-40, 315 yds., 2 TDs, 1 Int.) would lead the way for Ravens kicker Justin Tucker to drill a 21-yard kick with just 58 seconds left in the game. However, a methodic drive led by Andy Dalton (25-41, 377 yds., 3 TDs, 1 Int.) helped set up a Randy Bullock 18-yard kick to force overtime.

In overtime, the Ravens would get the ball first and drive down the field to take a 26-23 lead with yet another Justin Tucker field goal. An 81-yard bomb from Dalton to Tyler Boyd (7 rec., 198 yds., 1 TD) would prove to be the game-winner, though.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS 21, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 13

The Pittsburgh Steelers, who are still without Le’Veon Bell, would rebound from a surprising week one tie to the hapless Cleveland Browns. A much-cleaner game offensively, that saw only one turnover from the Steelers offense, helped propel them to a 21-13 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.

James Connor was once again the starting running back as Bell continues to sit out over a contract dispute. He rushed for just 61 yards on 17 carries – a stark difference from the 135 yards and two touchdown performance in week one. He did tack on an additional 72 yards and touchdown in the air though. Ben Roethlisberger threw for 290 yards and three touchdowns total, one of which went to Antonio Brown (4 rec., 72 yds.).

The Chiefs couldn’t manage much on offense as Patrick Mahomes (24-42, 234 yds., 1 TD) was under pressure all game. The Steelers totaled 6 sacks, led by T.J. Watt (7 tkl. 1.5 sacks). With three sacks in week one, Watt is a force to be reckoned with. Kareem Hunt, who struggled in week one, was held to just 54 yards on 16 carries.

NEW YORK JETS 28, MIAMI DOLPHINS 21

Coming off the longest game ever to be played, the Miami Dolphins didn’t appear to show any signs of fatigue as their offense put up 413 total yards. Unfortunately, it was not enough to defeat the New York Jets who, under the leadership of Sam Darnold at quarterback, would move to 2-0, according to Madden.

The youngest quarterback to ever start a game for a team in the Super Bowl era surprised everyone last week when he helped guide the Jets to a 48-17 win over the Lions. Although Darnold’s first pass was an interception, he did rebound to have a fairly decent game against Detroit. The No. 3 overall draft pick would continue his success in week two against the Dolphins, going 25-35 for 284 yards and two touchdowns and zero interceptions.

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill put up even more impressive numbers, posting a 122.6 quarterback rating. Tannehill went 26-38 with 340 yards and three touchdowns. DeVante Parker, who missed week one with an injury, would make his return and catch five passes for 39 yards. For the Dolphins, WR Danny Amendola, WR Albert Wilson and HB Kenyan Drake would each catch a touchdown.

Despite the solid passing game by the Dolphins, it was ultimately the offensive line that proved to be the downfall. The unit gave up six sacks in the game, including two to defensive end Leonard Williams and 1.5 to LOLB Jordan Jenkins.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 26, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 20

The Philadelphia Eagles – led by Super Bowl hero Nick Foles – barely squeaked by the Atlanta Falcons in week one. With many doubting the ability of Foles to recreate last year’s magic, the quarterback proved doubters wrong. Though he didn’t have a strong stat line, Foles orchestrated two drives late in the fourth quarter that ultimately proved to be the difference.

Foles threw for just 155 yards and one touchdown, but this league isn’t about stats; it’s about winning. And Foles keeps proving that he knows how to win. Alshon Jeffery did return from injury in the sim and caught three passes for 26 yards.

Really, though, the Eagles can attribute this win to another strong defensive performance. The Eagles defense picked off Buccaneers quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick (24-43, 280 yds.) two times and limited Peyton Barber to 50 yards on 15 carries. The dynamic receiving duo of Mike Evans (4 rec., 24 yds.) and DeSean Jackson (5 rec., 65 yds.) struggled throughout the game. The Eagles defense also recorded a whopping seven sacks in the game.

CLEVELAND BROWNS 23, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 17

The Cleveland Browns ended their 17-game losing streak in week one against the Pittsburgh Steelers; but, they still didn’t get a win. The Browns ended up tying the Steelers 21-21 when a 43-yard field goal try by Zane Gonzalez was blocked by Steelers’ T.J. Watt in overtime.

Well, in week two, the Browns would finally earn that elusive win against the New Orleans Saints. After entering halftime down 10-3, the Browns would rattle off 20 second-half points for a 23-13 victory.

It’s quite a surprising score given the Saints’ potent offense, but the Browns managed to stop Brees (30-42, 302 yds., 1 TD, 2 Int.) and limit Alvin Kamara to just 81 yards on 21 carries.

The Browns offense was nothing to write home about either, but Tyrod Taylor was an efficient 24-34 with 289 yards and two touchdowns. Newly signed wide receiver Jarvis Landry scored one of those touchdowns while racking up 85 yards on 6 receptions. The other touchdown would go to embattled receiver Josh Gordon (7 rec., 77 yds., 1 TD) who is having a redemption season so far in 2018.

On defense, the Browns would be led by Myles Garrett. The defensive end would harass Brees all day, totaling 2.5 sacks in the game. The constant pressure helped contribute to Brees’ struggling.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS 31, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 13

The Colts may have lost their season opener, but there were definitely some positive takeaways – namely, Andrew Luck starting and making it through the entire game. The Colts did not take much of a step forward, though, falling to the Redskins 31-13.

The Colts looked strong early on, jumping out to a 7-0 lead in the first quarter. But that was really all the offense managed for the rest of the game. Luck finished 23-41 with 216 yards and one interception.

The Redskins, led by Alex Smith, are starting to look like a formidable playoff team. Smith went 22-32 with 241 yards and one touchdown. Adrian Peterson continued to prove he’s got more than enough gas left in the tank and added 131 yards and two touchdowns on the ground; although, he did have one fumble.

Really, though, we can attribute the team’s hot start to a solid defense which has now allowed just 19 points through two games. Josh Norman played lights out, recording an interception.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS 21, BUFFALO BILLS 10

After a horrific start to the 2018 season, the Buffalo Bills decided to permanently bench Nathan Peterman in hopes of rookie quarterback Josh Allen turning things around. It went about as you would expect; Allen struggled and the Bills lost 21-10.

In his first official NFL start, Allen put together just a 33.3 QB rating. He completed 13 passes on 28 attempts for just 150 yards and threw two interceptions. Not exactly the boost they were hoping for, but what were they honestly expecting from a rookie? LeSean McCoy did what he could on the ground, racking up 101 yards and a touchdown.

The Chargers didn’t fare much better on offense. Philp Rivers threw for 211 yards, one touchdown and one interception. He completed passes to eight different receivers. But at this point in his career, stats are meaningless; it’s all about the W for him. Glad to see the Chargers finally pull one out, even if it is against the lowly Bills.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS 31, GREEN BAY PACKERS 9

In week one, Aaron Rodgers orchestrated one of the most impressive comebacks ever, leading the Packers to a 24-23 come-from-behind victory over the rival Chicago Bears. But the win didn’t come without a price as Rodgers was suffered a knee sprain early in the game. With his status for week two in question, we simulated the game with backup quarterback DeShone Kizer as the week two starter for the Packers.

The Packers face another stiff test in week two; the division rival Minnesota Vikings. Giving fans a glimpse into a potentially dark future, the Packers got destroyed 31-9. Kizer (21-43, 216 yds.) completed less than 50 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions.

The Vikings, meanwhile, continue to roll. Kirk Cousins threw for 244 yards and three touchdowns, though he did have two interceptions as well. Dalvin Cook ran for 79 yards and added another 52 yards as a receiver.

The Packers haven’t determined if Rodgers will play or not week two. Based on this simulation, fans better hope he gets healthy fast.

CAROLINA PANTHERS 44, ATLANTA FALCONS 7

What is wrong with the Atlanta Falcons offense? After a disappointing performance in the red zone in week one, the Falcons struggled to generate any momentum in week two against the Panthers.

Matt Ryan would go 19-30 with just 195 yards and one touchdown to two interceptions. Star wideout Julio Jones was also held to just 50 yards on seven catches. The Falcons once again failed to commit to the running game, despite a nice average by Devonta Freeman (13 car., 60 yds.). To call what Madden predicts will be a 0-2 start for the Falcons a disappointing surprise would be an understatement.

For the Panthers, week two looks like a complete turnaround on offense. The 44 points were fueled by two 100-plus yard rushers. Christian McCaffrey would total 141 yards and a touchdown on just 18 carries. C.J. Anderson would tack on an additional 102 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries. Cam Newton would add another 269 yards and two touchdowns in the air.

TENNESSEE TITANS 33, HOUSTON TEXANS 19

The Titans are coming off of the longest game ever played in the NFL, having lost to the Dolphins in a rain-soaked opener in week one. The Titans didn’t just lose the game, but also veteran tight end Delanie Walker. Mariota was also injured in the game, but it looks like he’ll be ready for week two; as such, we started him in the sim.

Mariota (22-34, 233 yds., 2 TDs, 2 Int.) broke open a 13-13 half-time tie with two second-half touchdowns. Titans quarterback Deshaun Watson had another lackluster game, throwing for just 249 yards and one touchdown with two interceptions.

Mariota was benefitted by a running game that saw two halfbacks combined for over 100 yards: Derrick Henry (16 car., 54 yds., 1 TD) and Dion Lewis (10 car., 48 yds.). Mariota, after suffering that week one hand injury, didn’t scramble much at all – probably a wise move.

ARIZONA CARDINALS 29, LOS ANGELES RAMS 28

The new and improved Los Angeles Rams looked every bit as good as advertised in week one. While it looked like the Rams were poised to start 2-0 on the year, the Bradford-led Cardinals mounted a fourth-quarter comeback to steal a win in Los Angeles. Two fourth-quarter touchdown passes from Sam Bradford fueled a dramatic 29-28 win for the Cardinals.

Both quarterbacks played lights out in the game. Jared Goff completed 27-37 passes for 299 yards and three touchdowns, while Bradford completed 23-34 passes for 314 yards and three touchdowns.

Similarly, both teams also found success on the ground. Todd Gurley rushed for 116 yards, while David Johnson carried the ball 20 times for 136 yards and a touchdown.

The Rams failed to generate any pressure on the quarterback which is surprising considering the names they have on the defensive side of the ball.

DETROIT LIONS SAN 30, FRANCISCO 49ERS 25

Week one didn’t go as hoped for Matt Patricia and the Detroit Lions. Facing the New York Jets, the Lions made rookie quarterback Sam Darnold look like a seasoned veteran while Stafford was the one looking completely lost. Stafford did sustain some minor injuries during the game, but he looks to be healthy for week two and as such was the simulated starter.

The Lions, whom many believe to have the talent for a playoff run, finally played up to their potential. Stafford threw for 361 yards and two touchdowns. LeGarrette Blount and Theo Riddick combined for over one hundred rushing yards and two touchdowns. And Golden Tate caught 10 passes for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Marvin Jones Jr. added another 109 yards on 8 catches. When the Lions offense is clicking, it’s hard to stop this team.

Headed into the half up 14-12, the Lions seemingly made the necessary halftime adjustments to hold onto the lead – something they failed to do against the Jets. The 49ers did make it close in the 4th quarter, outscoring the Lions, 10-6, but it was too late in the game at that point.

Jimmy Garoppolo had a solid performance, throwing for 257 yards and a touchdown. It’s difficult to blame a team loss on just one player, but left tackle Joe Staley was a big contributing factor to the 49ers loss; he allowed four sacks in the game. Lions defensive end Ezekiel Ansah was the player who benefited most from Staley’s struggles, recording five sacks in the game.

OAKLAND RAIDERS 27, DENVER BRONCOS 20

Jon Gruden much-anticipated return to Oakland was dampened by a blowout loss the Los Angeles Rams. Chuckie will get his revenge against the Broncos in week two, as I predict a 27-20 victory.

Derek Carr would have a bounce-back game from his three-interception week one performance. Against the Broncos he went 29-36 with 278 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. On the ground, Marshawn Lynch would carry the ball 20 times for 86 yards. Although the Raiders did sign wide receiver Martavious Bryant this week, he didn’t actually play in the simulated game.

The Broncos, who squeaked by the Seahawks in week one, would fall to 1-1, but not by any fault of the offense. Case Keenum (27-42, 286 yds., 2 TDs) put together a strong performance, although rookie running back Royce Freeman (15 car., 48 yds.) struggled.

Broncos receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas both recorded touchdowns for the second week in a row. Sanders had another 100-plus yard game, while Thomas had 74 yards on seven catches.

The Raiders, having traded Khalil Mack, once again failed to generate pressure with Bruce Irvin recording the team’s only sack. The Broncos also only had one sack by Derek Wolfe.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 39, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 36

Week two sees a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars. In a riveting game that saw seven lead changes, it was Jacksonville who came out on top this time around.

Unlike last year’s playoff game, the Jaguars actually trusted their quarterback. Bortles threw for 374 yards and four touchdowns with only one interception. His numbers were actually better than Brady’s 357 yards and two touchdowns. While Leonard Fournette hasn’t practiced yet, he did start in the sim. The Jaguars are definitely going to need him as he ran for 96 yards and a touchdown in the game. IN the passing game, Dede Westbrook led the way for the Jaguars with 114 yards and two touchdown catches.

The Jaguars defense pressured Brady throughout the day, totaling four sacks. But really, this was an offensive game through and through.

The Jaguars held a slim 21-20 lead at the half. The Jaguars defense allowed two Patriots touchdown runs by Rex Burkhead (14 car., 46 yds., 2 TDs), falling behind 33-28. A 21-yard pass from Bortles to Keelan Cole (9 rec., 107 yds., 1 TD) plus successful two-point conversion put the Jags back on top, 36-33. A 37-yard Stephen Gostkowski with a little over a minute left tied the game at 36. Rather than play for overtime like in the playoffs, the Jaguars trusted their offense and Bortles led them into position for  Josh Lambo to drill a 41-yard game-winning field goal as time expired.

NEW YORK GIANTS 34, DALLAS COWBOYS 24

Both the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys lost their first games of the 2018 season, mostly due to struggles on offense. The Cowboys offense managed just a meager 8 points against the Carolina Panthers in what was one of the team’s worst offensive performances I’ve ever watched. Their struggles would continue in week two against the Giants.

The Cowboys managed just 3 points in the first two quarters, entering halftime down 31-3. To their credit, they did find some rhythm in the second half but ultimately it was too little, too late. The Cowboys 34-24 final score doesn’t actually reflect how one-sided the game actually was.

Giants quarterback Eli Manning bounced back from a pedestrian week one performance and threw for 224 yards and two touchdowns. Cowboys quarterback and third-year starter Dak Prescott continued to struggle, throwing for 220 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions.

Star wide receiver, and Cowboys killer, Odell Beckham Jr. would get his first touchdown of the season, racking up 49 yards on six receptions. For the Cowboys, newly acquired wide receiver Allen Hurns would also get his first touchdown of the year.

Of course, when you think of the Giants and Cowboys now, you probably think premiere running backs. Ezekiel Elliott, who the Cowboys drafted No. 4 overall in the 2016 draft, rushed for 151 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries. Saquon Barkley scored his second career touchdown while rushing for 105 yards on 24 attempts. Both running backs clearly have bright futures in the league and it’ll be fun watching them compete against one another for years to come.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 23, CHICAGO BEARS 20

For the second week in a row, the Chicago Bears would suffer a gut-wrenching loss. Just one week after surrendering a 20-0 lead to arguably the great NFL quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, the Bears would mount their own comeback against the Seattle Seahawks and force overtime on Monday Night Football.

The Bears and Seahawks would trade possessions in overtime. On the Seahawks second possession, the Bears looked to have stopped them again, but a penalty against the defense on 3rd and 9 gave Russell Wilson and the Seahawks new life. They would drive down the field and kick a game-winning field goal.

The Bears didn’t particularly struggle on offense as Mitchell Trubisky (21-37, 285 yds., 2 TDs, 1 Int.) and Jordan Howard (27 car., 105 yds.) didn’t have terrible performances. Even wide receiver Allen Robinson II recorded six receptions for 125 yards and two touchdowns. It just wasn’t enough, though. I think if the Bears are to truly get going on offense they need more from tight end Trey Burton who only had 51 yards on 5 catches.

For Seattle, the difference was Russell Wilson (17-32, 311 yds., 2 TDs, 1 Int.). It’s not the most impressive stat line, but Wilson finds a way to get his team into position to win. One day, the Bears will expect the same from Trubisky.

With week two simulations now recorded, be sure to check back next week to see how I did with my predictions. In the meantime, let me know if you agree with these score predictions.