The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a long and storied
franchise. The one thing they have lacked has been members of the 20 and
30 club.
If a player has 20 home runs and 30 stolen bases in a
season, referred from now on as 20/30, the player has had a marvelous year in
demonstrating both power and speed. The Pittsburgh Pirates have a
candidate in Starling Marte who could join that
club this season. The players to do so in any year dating back to 1871
according to the baseball-reference play index are as
followed:
|
Pirates 20/30 Club
|
|||
|
Player
|
Year
|
HR
|
SB
|
|
Bonds, Barry
|
1992
|
23
|
39
|
|
Bonds, Barry
|
1991
|
24
|
43
|
|
Bonds, Barry
|
1990
|
33
|
52
|
|
Van Slyke, Andy
|
1988
|
25
|
30
|
|
Bonds, Barry
|
1987
|
25
|
32
|
|
Van Slyke, Andy
|
1987
|
21
|
34
|
That’s the entire list. Six player seasons of 20/30 in
Pirates history accomplished by two players: Barry Bonds and Andy Van Slyke. Given the history,
it’s surprising only two players have done it, Andrew McCutchen‘s closest year was either
2010 when he went 16/33 or 2013 when he was 21/27. Nate McLouth was 26/23 in
2008, Kiki Cuyler was 18/21 in 1925, Al Martin 18/38 in 1996, but not many
others were close.
Of the near misses, defined by either missing by exactly one
home run or one stolen base, there have only been two in franchise history:
|
Pirates Near Misses of 20/30
|
|||
|
Player
|
Year
|
HR
|
SB
|
|
Marte, Starling
|
2015
|
19
|
30
|
|
Bonds, Barry
|
1989
|
19
|
32
|
Bonds missed out on four straight seasons of 20/30, as his
streak of three started in the playoff years. Marte missed out in 2015
and with 17 games left in the season, Marte will be hoping to not miss out on
the 20/30 club for the second time in his career by just one home run.
The Pirates center fielder currently sits at 19/31 and with
17 games left (potentially 16 if the Marlins makeup isn’t actually ever played,
and not time has been announced), he should have plenty of chances to hit
another home run, especially with the Kansas City Royals (seventh in home runs
allowed) and Cincinnati Reds (first in home runs allowed and the game being in
Cincinnati) left on the schedule. The Pirates also will travel to
Milwaukee for three and Chicago for four. He’ll have a good chance to do
so.
Here are Marte’s home runs per plate appearances and plate
appearances per game for each season of his career:
|
Starling Marte Rates
|
||
|
Year
|
HR/PA
|
PA/G
|
|
2012
|
2.75%
|
3.87
|
|
2013
|
2.12%
|
4.19
|
|
2014
|
2.39%
|
4.04
|
|
2015
|
3.00%
|
4.14
|
|
2016
|
1.70%
|
4.10
|
|
2017
|
2.06%
|
4.40
|
|
2018
|
3.51%
|
4.16
|
|
Total
|
2.52%
|
4.14
|
If Marte continues to average 4.14 plate appearances per
game (his career rate) and he plays 14 of the remaining 17 (or 16), he’ll have
around 58 plate appearances (STEAMER projects for 73 plate appearances in 17
games). Using his 2018 home run per plate appearance and its two home
runs (0.035*58) and using his career rate, its 1.5 home runs (0.0252*58).
STEAMER projects Marte to hit two more home runs in 2018.
Marte’s rate stats if he plays only 14 games the rest of the
season is a positive outlook, and his projection has him at 21 home runs for
the season. Marte would have already been 20/30 if not for hitting only
one home run in 33 games between July 25 and September 3, but given his full
season production of a 4.0 win player (WARP), you can live with it.
Baseball is about total production. After Gerrit Cole called Marte the only five tool player he’s
played with, he has the chance to demonstrate it by becoming the
third 20/30 player in club history.
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