Saturday, October 13, 2018

MY COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS


WEEK 7 PREDICTIONS FOR ALL THE TOP GAMES
Week 7 boasts a trio of matchups between ranked teams, but plenty of Top 25 schools are preparing for a challenging opponent.
In addition those three games, six Top 25 programs are headed on the road for a conference tilt. Upsets are bound to happen and continue shaking up the college football season.
Still, the focus will be on Georgia's trip to LSU, Washington's jaunt to Oregon and Wisconsin's visit to Michigan. Unless Georgia falls, the loser in each of those matchups will effectively be eliminated from the College Football Playoff chase.
TOP SATURDAY EARLY GAMES
MINNESOTA (3-2) AT NO. 3 OHIO STATE (6-0), NOON ET
After a tremendous 3-0 start, Minnesota's unproven roster is showing its youth. The Gophers have committed seven turnovers in the last two games. Unless they force Ohio State into a similar issue, this meeting won't be close. PREDICTION: OHIO STATE 48, MINNESOTA 21
NO. 14 FLORIDA (5-1) AT VANDERBILT (3-3), NOON ET
In two conference games, the Commodores have converted only five of 26 third-down attempts. Over the last three weeks, Florida has surrendered a paltry 29.8 percent rate. Breaking those trends will be crucial for Vandy to compete, but the evidence isn't there to predict it. PREDICTION: FLORIDA 27, VANDERBILT 16
TENNESSEE (2-3) AT NO. 21 AUBURN (4-2), NOON ET
Auburn's offense is dealing with major concerns up front, but Tennessee offers a brief respite for the struggling unit. But the bigger mismatch is a UT scoring attack that hasn't cracked five yards per play against a power-conference foe, whereas Auburn's defense ranks 18th nationally in that category. PREDICTION: AUBURN 38, TENNESSEE 17
IOWA (4-1) AT INDIANA (4-2), NOON ET
Indiana is feisty. Despite losing to Michigan State and Ohio State by a combined 37 points, the Hoosiers forced seven turnovers in those Big Ten clashes. This is an ill-timed contest for Iowa, which has had seven giveaways in the last three games. PREDICTION: INDIANA 27, IOWA 24
OKLAHOMA STATE (4-2) AT KANSAS STATE (2-4), NOON ET
Despite the recent woes of Oklahoma State's defense, the Cowboys are an easy pick. This isn't a typical Kansas State team, so a trip to Manhattan doesn't appear as daunting as in past years. Kansas State rarely gives up explosive gains, but quarterback Taylor Cornelius can lead OSU to a methodical win. PREDICTION: OKLAHOMA STATE 34, KANSAS STATE 23
DUKE (4-1) AT GEORGIA TECH (3-3), 12:20 P.M. ET
In consecutive weeks, a dynamic triple-option attack has propelled Georgia Tech to 60-plus points. The nation's No. 23 run defense better be ready. Though Duke has earned three of the last four victories in this series thanks to its offense, we're skeptical about quarterback Daniel Jones as he returns from a collarbone injury. PREDICTION: GEORGIA TECH 38, DUKE 31
LOUISVILLE (2-4) AT BOSTON COLLEGE (4-2), 12:30 P.M. ET
If the Eagles get AJ Dillon back from an ankle setback, they should wallop Louisville. The Cardinals rank 107th nationally with 40 tackles for loss allowed and will likely labor to handle constant pressure. Boston College is 17th in TFL. If Dillon sits, it'll be a little closer, but still not competitive. PREDICTION: BOSTON COLLEGE 41, LOUISVILLE 21
PITT (3-3) AT NO. 5 NOTRE DAME (6-0), 2:30 P.M. ET
In the ACC stunner of Week 6, Pitt limited an up-tempo Syracuse offense to a meager 4.2 yards per carry. However, repeating that effort against Notre Dame on the road will be challenging. The Irish should have no issues dispatching the Panthers. PREDICTION: NOTRE DAME 48, PITT 20
OTHER SATURDAY EARLY GAMES
NEBRASKA (0-5) AT NORTHWESTERN (2-3), NOON ET
Northwestern is talented enough to be 4-1, but late-game collapses doomed the Wildcats in two contests. Despite Nebraska's winless mark, freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez is looking comfortable under center. While his comeback effort will fall short, the Cornhuskers should give NU trouble for 60 minutes. PREDICTION: NORTHWESTERN 29, NEBRASKA 24
RUTGERS (1-5) AT MARYLAND (3-2), NOON ET
A date with Rutgers is what Maryland needs to settle its offense. In two of the Terrapins' last three games; they've mustered 220 yards or fewer. Rutgers, on the other hand, has ceded 5.7 yards per rushing attempt this season. Maryland will run away with it. PREDICTION: MARYLAND 42, RUTGERS 17
TOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON GAMES
NO. 2 GEORGIA (6-0) AT NO. 13 LSU (5-1), 3:30 P.M. ET
The analysis never needs to change for LSU: The defense is great, but can quarterback Joe Burrow do enough? For the first time all season, in Week 6, that answer was no. Since the Georgia defense is ceding only 5.2 yards per pass attempt, the answer will probably be the same on Saturday. PREDICTION: GEORGIA 27, LSU 17
NO. 7 WASHINGTON (5-1) AT NO. 17 OREGON (4-1), 3:30 P.M. ET
As talented as Washington's secondary is, opposing quarterbacks have completed 64.4 percent of their attempts. Ducks quarterback Justin Herbert has two showings below 50 percent but three above 72. Get the former, and Oregon will stay close. Get the latter, and the Ducks will have no chance. PREDICTION: WASHINGTON 31, OREGON 26
MICHIGAN STATE (3-2) AT NO. 8 PENN STATE (4-1), 3:30 P.M. ET
Running the ball against Michigan State is extremely tough. But while the secondary has nine interceptions, it's giving up a bunch of yards (No. 123 nationally). Three quarterbacks have topped 300 yards against the Spartans, and Trace McSorley should make it four during a Penn State win PREDICTION: PENN STATE 34, MICHIGAN STATE 24
BAYLOR (4-2) AT NO. 9 TEXAS (5-1), 3:30 P.M. ET
Last year, these programs combined for eight victories. Already, Baylor and Texas have totaled nine. The potential of an Oklahoma hangover is real, but quarterback Sam Ehlinger should control this contest by keeping the Longhorns in short-yardage situations and converting. PREDICTION: TEXAS 41, BAYLOR 21
NO. 22 TEXAS A&M (4-2) AT SOUTH CAROLINA (3-2), 3:30 P.M. ET
A knee injury prevented South Carolina quarterback Jake Bentley from playing last week and in his place Michael Scarnecchia threw for 249 yards and three touchdowns against Missouri. However, Bentley is expected to return to the No. 1 role. South Carolina desperately needs a reliable quarterback to overcome Texas A&M's SEC-leading run defense. PREDICTION: TEXAS A&M 29, SOUTH CAROLINA 17
PURDUE (2-3) AT ILLINOIS (3-2), 3:30 P.M. ET
Boilermakers QB David Blough has thrived in three starts, throwing for 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns with only one interception. As long as he protects the football, Illinois won't be close. But the Illini have picked off 10 passes, so that's not necessarily a given. PREDICTION: PURDUE 38, ILLINOIS 27
MISSOURI (3-2) AT NO. 1 ALABAMA (6-0), 7 P.M. ET
Tua Tagovailoa is good to go, right? Yes? OK, Alabama wins. Missouri's pass defense ranks 109th in yards allowed per attempt, whereas Tagovailoa leads the FBS with a stunning average of 14.8. PREDICTION: ALABAMA 52, MISSOURI 21
NO. 6 WEST VIRGINIA (5-0) AT IOWA STATE (2-3), 7 P.M. ET
This is a dicey matchup for Will Grier and Co., especially since it's on the road. West Virginia probably won't have much success running on Iowa State, which is 19th nationally in yards allowed per carry. But if Grier rebounds from a four-turnover day and succeeds in the red zone, the Mountaineers will earn a tight win. PREDICTION: WEST VIRGINIA 31, IOWA STATE 24
NO. 16 MIAMI (5-1) AT VIRGINIA (3-2), 7 P.M. ET
Earlier in 2018, Toledo quarterback Mitchell Guadagni ran for 47 yards on Miami. Even if that was a concession to contain talented receivers, it's a concern opposite Virginia's Bryce Perkins. As long as the 'Canes don't allow Perkins to match his dual-threat billing—no matter which asset is contained—they'll hang on. PREDICTION: MIAMI 34, VIRGINIA 26
NO. 15 WISCONSIN (4-1) AT NO. 12 MICHIGAN (5-1), 7:30 P.M. ET
Michigan boasts the stingiest defense in the country (230.5 total yards allowed per game), and Wisconsin is consistently strong in the trenches. The key difference, though, is the Badgers have a banged-up secondary. The Wolverines will win if quarterback Shea Patterson leads three touchdown drives. Prediction: MICHIGAN 24, WISCONSIN 17
VIRGINIA TECH (3-2) AT NORTH CAROLINA (1-3), 7 P.M. ET
Although the Hokies moved the ball well enough to defeat Notre Dame, their possessions constantly ended past midfield but short of scoring territory and resulted in defeat. Virginia Tech shouldn't meet as much resistance against UNC, the nation's No. 73 defense (5.56 yards allowed per play). PREDICTION: VIRGINIA TECH 37, NORTH CAROLINA 20
UCLA (0-5) at Cal (3-2), 7 p.m. ET
Head coach Chip Kelly's crew finally showed a bit of life despite losing to Washington, posting a season-high 6.5 yards per play. However, Cal has consistently played well defensively other than in an understandable loss to Oregon. Provided two turnovers don't result in touchdowns again, Cal will send UCLA to 0-6. PREDICTION: CAL 24, UCLA 16
OLE MISS (4-2) AT ARKANSAS (1-5), 7:30 P.M. ET
Alabama hung an otherworldly 21.8 yards per pass attempt on Arkansas. Ole Miss can't possibly repeat that number, right? Jordan Ta'amu should have a career-best game, considering the talent of the Rebels receivers. But their miserable defense will keep Arkansas in the contest. PREDICTION: OLE MISS 56, ARKANSAS 42
TOP SATURDAY NIGHT GAMES
HAWAII (6-1) AT BYU (3-3), 10:15 P.M. ET
The health of quarterback Cole McDonald will shape this outcome. He didn't suit up during Hawaii's win over Wyoming, and freshman Chevan Cordeiro mustered only 148 yards. McDonald sounds unlikely to play, so a mediocre BYU offense can take advantage. PREDICTION: BYU 20, HAWAII 16
NO. 19 COLORADO (5-0) AT USC (3-2), 10:30 P.M. ET
The Trojans should be well-rested and well-prepared for Colorado. USC's run defense has thrived since a poor start, so the decisive question is whether the secondary can contain wide receiver Laviska Shenault Jr., who had four touchdowns (two receiving, two rushing) for the Buffaloes last week. That's high pressure for cornerback Iman Marshall, among others, but the Trojans can do it. PREDICTION: USC 27, COLORADO 22
BOISE STATE (3-2) AT NEVADA (3-3), 10:30 P.M. ET
San Diego State capitalized on quarterback Brett Rypien's miserable day and dispatched Boise State last week. However, Nevada has surrendered 7.8 yards per passing attempt with 14 touchdowns to three interceptions. The Broncos will return to their winning ways. PREDICTION: BOISE STATE 38, NEVADA 21    

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