Saturday, February 16, 2019

NFL OVERHAUL RANKINGS


RATING TEAMS THAT WILL CHANGE MOST IN 2019 OFFSEASON
This NFL offseason will prove again that the league and its teams never rest. With that in mind, I look back with my annual offseason overhaul rankings for all 32 teams. It's a chance to project which teams might undergo the most significant changes as the hiring cycle for coaches and general managers gives way to roster cuts, free agency, trades and the draft.
I start with the teams that missed the postseason or were eliminated early.
1. NEW YORK JETS
The Jets will have new coach Adam Gase paired with a fifth-year general manager under pressure to support second-year quarterback Sam Darnold.
The roster has great potential for turnover beyond those factors. Twenty-four veterans with a combined 141 starts and more than 8,000 snaps for the 2018 Jets enter the offseason without contracts for next season. Those figures for starts and snaps are the highest in the league. So is the $67 million in cap charges those veteran players represented.
The offensive skill positions and defensive secondary seem especially ripe for overhauls.
2. ARIZONA CARDINALS
The Cardinals were No. 1 on this list last offseason and could challenge for the top spot again. Like the Jets, they will have a new coach -- Kliff Kingsbury -- paired with an incumbent GM under pressure to support a quarterback selected in the first round of the 2018 draft. Ownership could expect quick results even though this looks to be a long-term rebuild.
Arizona had the NFL's sixth-oldest starters in 2018, not counting quarterbacks. Veterans without contracts for 2019 combined for 112 starts, fourth most in the league. An older roster that performed poorly and has lots of unsigned players with a new coach is a strong candidate for turnover.
GM Steve Keim needs to overhaul the offensive line and receiving spots, especially if unsigned Cardinals legend Larry Fitzgerald does not return.
3. OAKLAND RAIDERS
Jon Gruden already overhauled much of the roster he inherited from former coach Jack Del Rio and recently dismissed GM Reggie McKenzie. There is no reason to expect the pace of roster changes to suddenly slow following a 4-12 season. Gruden and new GM Mike Mayock own three first-round picks and will presumably overhaul the defense, for starters.
Gruden's affinity for veteran players at the offensive skill positions contributed to Oakland ranking No. 1 by a wide margin in average age for starters at running back, tight end and wide receiver. Will Gruden seek to get younger there? If so, there could be additional changes. The Raiders' 29.9-year average for starters at those positions was 1.2 years above the averages for the runner-up Patriots and Dolphins. It was 4.9 years older than the average for the Cowboys, who resided at the other end of the age spectrum.
4. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Owner Stephen Ross punctuated the Dolphins' leadership changes by suggesting the team needed a long-term rebuild after attempts to maximize the short term failed to meet his expectations. GM Chris Grier and the new coach will spearhead those efforts.
Veterans Frank GoreJosh SittonWilliam Hayes and Daniel Kilgore are all 30 or older and finished the season on injured reserve. What will the future hold for them? Gore and mainstay pass-rusher Cameron Wake are among the veterans with expiring contracts.
The team could also decide to shift away from quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has been with Miami throughout his career, which began in 2012. Tannehill's career 49.1 QBR ranks 33rd out of 39 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts in that span. Only Matt SchaubBrock OsweilerDerek CarrBlake BortlesBrian Hoyer and Blaine Gabbert rank lower.
5. BUFFALO BILLS
If the Bills' leadership has shown us anything, it's a willingness to churn the roster and coaching staff almost constantly. They are well into a roster overhaul that should remain in high gear as the team tries to upgrade most offensive positions around quarterback Josh Allen. Additional draft choices in the fourth, fifth and seventh rounds could help Buffalo keep the churn going.
Buffalo needs a No. 1 receiver, multiple offensive linemen, a tight end to succeed Charles Clay and a running back to succeed LeSean McCoy. There are needs on defense as well, even if 35-year-old pass-rusher Lorenzo Alexander re-signs with the team.
6. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Firing Mike McCarthy during the season showed the Packers weren't going to sit around and hope for the team to improve. They were eager to get started on an overhaul. With a new coach -- Matt LaFleur -- and second-year GM facing elevated expectations entering Aaron Rodgers' age-35 season, the Packers have work to do.
Nick PerryBryan BulagaRandall CobbClay Matthews and Jimmy Graham combined to start 57 of the 64 games they played this season, but Graham and Matthews were the only ones to play every game. They were hardly dynamic contributors. Matthews, 33, and Cobb, 28, are scheduled for free agency. Bulaga has one relatively affordable year left on his deal and has battled serious injuries.
The safety position could get a makeover, as could the tight end position, where the team could conceivably part with Graham, Marcedes Lewis and Lance Kendricks. Graham's contract carries a $5 million roster bonus in March and a $12.6 million cap figure if he's on the roster.
7. CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Panthers fielded the second-youngest starters in the receiver-eligible slots -- running back, wide receiver and tight end -- while fielding the oldest starters overall. That would seem nearly impossible; except that Carolina's defensive starters were the oldest in the NFL on average at 29.4 (Baltimore was second at 28.8, with Philadelphia a distant third at 27.8).
Thomas DavisMike Adams and Julius Peppers were all age 35-or-older starters on a defense that plummeted from 10th to 24th in ESPN's efficiency rankings. Tight end Greg Olsen missed seven games, which suppressed the average age for Carolina's starting tight ends, but he is 33 and coming off another season-ending foot injury. Olsen remains signed through 2020 and could bounce back strong, but after missing 16 of the past 32 games, his future could be in question.
Although Carolina has some good young players to build around, the coming offseason provides an opportunity to overhaul the defense, which could lead to relatively significant roster turnover. The offensive line also could see significant turnover, helping to push Carolina higher on this list.
8. DETROIT LIONS
The Lions could be aggressive with their roster as they continue to remake the team to coach Matt Patricia's liking. Defensive end Ezekiel Ansah, guard T.J. Lang and safety Glover Quin are three prominent veterans to watch. How many will return for another season with the Lions?
GM Bob Quinn said quarterback Matthew Stafford will return as the starter. That always seemed to be the most likely scenario amid rumors the team could move its 10-year starter. (Then again, what else could a GM plausibly say?)
9. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Owner Shad Khan retained the Jaguars' leadership, but there could be turnover on the offensive side in particular.
Jacksonville ranked first on offense and last on defense in number of 2018 snaps played by veterans without contracts for next season.
The team will have a new offensive coordinator and must decide whether to bring back quarterback Blake Bortles for the final year of his contract.
Executive vice president Tom Coughlin sharply criticized running backs Leonard Fournette and T.J. Yeldon for conduct he considered selfish, calling into question their futures with the team. Yeldon is scheduled to become a free agent. The team's move to void Fournette's contract guarantees could have been a prelude to unloading him.
Changes on the offensive line also could be coming. The Jaguars got a league-high 3,416 snaps from offensive linemen without contracts for next season. Elsewhere on offense, starting receiver Donte Moncrief played on a one-year contract.
10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Quarterback Nick Foles could be the headliner to leave Philly this offseason, depending on a few things. The team needs to overhaul the cornerback position with or without Ronald Darby, who can become a free agent. The defense and running game could be two areas hit hardest by change.
Defensive end Brandon Graham, 30, is the Eagles' only 16-game starter without a contract for 2019, but quite a few "name" players have expiring deals. That list includes linebacker Jordan Hicks (12 starts), Darby (nine), safety Corey Graham(nine), defensive tackle Haloti Ngata (nine), receiver Golden Tate (seven), receiver Jordan Matthews (three), defensive back Corey Graham (nine), halfback Jay Ajayi (three), receiver Mike Wallace (two) and scatback Darren Sproles.
Michael Bennett has seemingly played well enough to return, but his contract carries no cap consequences if the Eagles decide his $7 million price tag is too steep.
11. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
A defensive overhaul of some magnitude awaits after the Buccaneers gave up a league-worst 29.0 points per game (they were 30th in efficiency). They'll have a new coach -- Bruce Arians -- as well, although the decision to stick with GM Jason Licht and quarterback Jameis Winston suggests the team could make another run with this offensive core, minus notable pieces such as Desean Jackson.
The question on defense is whether the overhaul could go deep enough to affect expensive front-line players such as Jason Pierre-Paul or even Gerald McCoy.
12. DENVER BRONCOS
It's not yet clear how far GM John Elway will go in attempting to end a three-year absence from the playoffs, but the assumption is that he will be active.
Offensive linemen Billy TurnerJared Veldheer and Matt Paradis combined for 32 starts this season. All can become free agents. Overall, Denver ranks fifth in 2018 snaps played by veterans without contracts for 2019. That list includes cornerback Bradley Roby, whose first season as a full-time starter wasn't strong enough to ensure his future in Denver.
Will quarterback Case Keenum return? Denver guaranteed $7 million of his salary next season. The team might be able to win with him if its defense were elite. However, a Broncos defense that once ranked first (2015) and second (2016) in ESPN's efficiency metric has fallen to 11th (2017) and 19th (2018) more recently.
13. LOS ANGELES RAMS
The Rams have been active in the trade market and could continue on that path as they try to reload. There could be notable holes to fill.
Guard Rodger Saffold, safety Lamarcus Joyner, defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh and defensive end Dante Fowler are four high-profile contributors who might not return.
The assumption is that left tackle Andrew Whitworth and center John Sullivan will return for the final year of their contracts. As the oldest starters in the league at their positions, the end is approaching, however. Zac Taylor's departure to become the Bengals' coach is the most notable coaching change so far.
14. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs rank second to the Jets with 7,865 snaps from players without contracts for 2019.
That includes a league-high 2,791 from defensive backs, led by Steven NelsonRon Parker and Orlando Scandrick. Keeping free-agent pass-rusher Dee Ford will presumably be a priority, but changes could be coming to other areas of the defense.
15. BALTIMORE RAVENS
The Ravens will not necessarily overhaul their roster, but important changes lie ahead.
Eric DeCosta will take over for longtime GM Ozzie Newsome. Joe Flacco could be on his way out now that Lamar Jackson has taken over at quarterback. Even John Harbaugh's future as coach is in some question as teams wonder whether Harbaugh might be available in a trade pending resolution to his contract situation.
16. ATLANTA FALCONS
Firing all three coordinators following an injury-plagued 2018 season signaled increased urgency that could drive offseason activity. Much of that activity could go toward revamping both lines of scrimmage.
Nine offensive and defensive linemen who started games for Atlanta this season can become free agents. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett heads that list and will presumably remain a priority to re-sign.
17. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
This feels almost like any other Patriots offseason now that the 2017-18 drama surrounding Tom Brady and Bill Belichick has subsided. Assuming both return, the Patriots still could be headed for some significant changes.
The Patriots could overhaul their receiving corps. Josh Gordon is already gone. Chris HoganPhillip Dorsett and Cordarrelle Patterson are eligible for free agency.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski's future could be the biggest question. He has one year and $9 million left on his contract and has deflected questions about retirement. The Patriots tried to trade him a year ago. Will they want him back at that price? Brian Flores' departure from the coaching staff to become the Dolphins' coach means some turnover will spill over to the coaching staff.
18. WASHINGTON REDSKINS
This Redskins offseason could go any number of directions. Will owner Daniel Snyder stay the course with team president Bruce Allen and the rest of the team's football leadership? Will quarterback Alex Smith recover from his career-threatening leg injury and continue as the starter?
Aside from the Kirk Cousins drama of recent offseasons, the Redskins have been rather conventional in their approach to free agency, distancing themselves from Snyder's previous reputation for expensive splashes. Will that change now that fan apathy is a leading storyline surrounding the team?
Whether the Redskins are in the market for a starting quarterback could affect their approach to the rest of the roster.
19. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Giants could rocket up this list if they decided to part with Eli Manning and move on from expensive veterans such as Olivier VernonJanoris Jenkins and Alec Ogletree. Making those moves would amount to an admission the Giants are rebuilding. Execs from other teams tend to think the Giants will bring back Manning for the final year of his contract, which could signal staying the course overall as well.
20. HOUSTON TEXANS
One evaluator said he thought the Texans might undergo bigger changes one year from now, but there is potential for an overhaul now. With Jadeveon ClowneyTyrann Mathieu and Kareem Jackson eligible for free agency, Houston ranks fourth in 2018 snaps by defensive veterans with expiring contracts. Who will return?
One fear heading into 2018 was that the Texans wouldn't be able to support Deshaun Watson sufficiently in part because they had given up so much draft capital to get him. That could change this offseason as Houston holds extra picks in the second and fourth rounds. Those picks could help the Texans overhaul their offensive line.
21. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Much of the 49ers' offseason will consist of getting Jimmy Garoppolo healthy for what amounts to a do-over on the 2018 season. The team needs to upgrade its defense, however, so there could be some churn on that side of the ball, especially in the secondary, where Jimmie Ward is among the potential free agents.
22. CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns ranked third on this list last offseason. They appear much more settled now that John Dorsey is entering his second offseason as GM and Baker Mayfield is established as the long-term quarterback. Cleveland got a league-low 2,042 snaps from veteran players without contracts for 2019, led by offensive lineman Greg Robinson with 463. That's a reflection of the fact that the Browns' key players are young. Dorsey can now go about supplementing the roster instead of overhauling it. There will be changes, but probably not sweeping ones.
23. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The big Seattle overhaul took place last offseason, but it's not finished. Earl Thomas will surely leave in free agency, spelling the official end to the Legion of Boom. Linebacker K.J. Wright turns 30 this summer and also could exit in free agency (Seattle over the past year has become averse to handing out third contracts to players with injury concerns). Pass-rusher Frank Clark, nickel corner Justin Coleman, left guard J.R. Sweezy and right guard D.J. Fluker are also among the prominent contributors without contracts for next season.
24. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Colts are still relatively early in the rebuilding process, which was easy to forget when watching them rally from a 1-5 start to reach the playoffs. GM Chris Ballard figures to focus on the defensive front and finding another cornerback as Indy seeks to take another step in the building process. Welcoming back young wideout Deon Cain from injury could be the most important move on offense. Indy could have more than $100 million in salary-cap space, but that doesn't mean Ballard is going to load up on expensive purchases.
25. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Most signs point to Cincinnati hiring a coach already familiar with the organization, which could indicate the Bengals will not stray from their well-established approach. They don't have a long list of key starters scheduled for free agency. They generally have not been aggressive movers in free agency or the trade market. And so here they are at No. 25, only three spots higher than last offseason, subject to change if the Bengals depart from past form.
26. TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans rank relatively low on the assumption that Marcus Mariota will most likely return as the starting quarterback. There will be changes in the defensive front seven following Brian Orakpo's retirement and with Derrick Morgan eligible to become a free agent. Those two combined for 25 starts this season. Tennessee will presumably find an interior lineman to pair with Jurrell Casey while adding at least one outside rusher to replace Orakpo.
27. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers will almost surely part ways with running back Le'Veon Bell. Unloading receiver Antonio Brown seems much less likely, but the drama surrounding his situation raises questions for the short term, at least. Overall, however, the Steelers figure to focus on reloading more than rebuilding.
28. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The offensive line is the one area where Minnesota could be in for an overhaul to some degree. The Vikings need to settle on a long-term successor to line coach Tony Sparano, who died from arteriosclerotic heart disease in July. They also need to upgrade the personnel to the extent resources allow. The defense is mostly set after the Vikings re-signed their most important players on that side of the ball. Linebacker Anthony Barr and tackle Sheldon Richardson might not fit into the picture. Both can become free agents.
29. CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears made their big changes last offseason when they signed veteran pass-catchers and made the trade for Khalil Mack. They're in position to bring back nearly all of their important players from 2018, but they will presumably be more conservative in their offseason acquisitions.
30. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Chargers appear likely to return largely intact while trying to win with a highly productive veteran quarterback in his late 30s (Philip Rivers turned 37 in December). They will want to upgrade their offensive line and supplement other areas of the roster, but now is not the time for an overhaul.
31. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The Saints could supplement their roster at receiver and in the secondary, among other spots, but their approach figures to be all about keeping open their championship window, not building another one. Mark Ingram is the biggest name on the Saints' free-agent list. He started six games and played 342 snaps.
32. DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys figure to be big spenders this offseason, but mostly to keep their own players. Re-signing a young core featuring Dak PrescottEzekiel ElliottAmari Cooper and DeMarcus Lawrence figures to be a bigger priority than overhauling the roster, even if Dallas shows interest in Seattle safety Earl Thomas.


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