NL CENTRAL PROSPECT GUIDE

WHO TO WATCH ON THE CUBS, REDS, BREWERS, PIRATES AND CARDINALS

We already ran down the top 100 prospects in baseball, so now it's time go deeper by division. Today, it's the National League Central, starting with the Chicago Cubs.

Editor's note: Age is the player's age as of July 1, 2019. Players with experience in foreign major leagues such as Japan's NPB or Korea's KBO are ineligible for these rankings.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

The Pirates' system still has a lot of players who seem to have every day upside but haven't performed up to expectations, whether it's draft position or tools grades. They've been opportunistic in the draft, taking players who should have gone higher but slipped for reasons that might not matter in the long run, and have done very well with picks in the supplemental and second rounds in the last few drafts.

1. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B (ranked No. 18)
2. Mitch Keller, RHP (ranked No. 24)
3. Travis Swaggerty, OF (ranked No. 47)
4. Oneil Cruz, ask again later (ranked No. 78)
5. Kevin Newman, SS (Just missed)
6. Calvin Mitchell, OF
7. Cole Tucker, SS
8. Steven Jennings, RHP
9. Kevin Kramer, SS/2B
10. Lolo Sanchez, OF

Calvin Mitchell can really hit and earned very positive reports from scouts who saw him as a 19-year-old in the Sally League last year. Had I continued ranking prospects past 110 or so, he would have been in the next group of 15 to 20 names. His swing works, he has a good eye and he showed more power than expected after the Pirates made some small tweaks to his setup. He mostly played right field last year, but his arm will push him to left, where he'll probably be a 45-grade defender.

Cole Tucker's arm strength continued to come back as he recovers from shoulder surgery a couple of years ago that threatened his future at shortstop. Now, the bigger issue is how little he has hit, including a .259/.333/.356 line in Double-A last year that speaks to how infrequently he impacts the ball even when he puts it in play. He is an above-average runner and by all accounts an incredible kid, but he has to hit to have any shot to be a regular -- and so far it hasn't happened.

Steven Jennings had a rib injury in the offseason that slowed him last spring and meant he couldn't lift in the winter to try to build up some strength before the season; and his stuff hasn't ticked up yet, with three average pitches and some control but not really enough command. He was a three-sport guy in high school, and he has the body to project to bigger velocity but not necessarily the arm speed. The athleticism is still worth betting on.

Kevin Kramer is a future utility guy, filling in at short and second, but there probably won't be enough bats for him to play every day at second. His approach versus lefties isn't very good, and he has some pop against right-handers but not enough overall of a bat. He punched out in 20 of his 39 plate appearances against right-handers in his cup of coffee last year, hardly definitive but something that might give the Pirates pause when setting their roster in March.

Lolo Sanchez is a plus runner who can play center, but his bat is still very light, even for a 19-year-old. He puts the ball in play, as so many Pirates prospects do, but doesn't impact it yet. His hands are loose, but he doesn't have good bat control, getting his hands away from his body and sort of throwing them at the ball in his swing too much, which might create contact but not good quality contact. He does have an easy path to the majors with his speed and defense.

Jason Martin (11) was acquired from the Astros in the Gerrit Cole deal. He has above-average power, and he made progress last year against lefties, although he can still be too quick to his front side. He has above-average speed but a hilariously bad track record as a base stealer -- a 50 percent success rate last year, 57 percent for his pro career -- so he has defensive potential but should probably be told not to stray more than two feet from first base. He is a soft regular now with some fourth outfielder floor and offers the possibility of more, depending on how he handles Triple-A pitching after struggling there last summer.

Bryan Reynolds (12) has been a disappointment since the Giants took him in the second round, a pick I liked quite a bit at the time, as the power that he showed in college has been absent with the wood bats of pro ball and he remains too passive early in counts. He can handle center field on an emergency basis, but he doesn't have the power output for right field. Will Craig (13) was Pittsburgh's first-round pick in 2016 and had a .373 OBP with no power in High-A the next year; then last year, he hit 20 home runs with a .321 OBP in Double-A. His swing gets very long, and he has a hard time covering the entire zone without becoming vulnerable to fastballs in, even at average velocity. He has a plus arm but is limited to first base.

Right-hander Travis MacGregor (14) had Tommy John surgery that will keep him out all of 2019, which unfortunately hit just as his velocity was starting to jump, sitting 92 to 94 mph and complemented with a promising changeup. Right-hander Luis Escobar (15) should be a useful three-pitch reliever who can face hitters on both sides of the plate, with an improved changeup that should also help him rely less on his hard but straight fastball.

Pablo Reyes (16) should be on the big league club as a super-utility guy who can fill in at six different spots, having played second, short, third, left, center and right last year between Double-A, Triple-A and the majors. He can run a little and has a long history of good contact rates with 45ish power. Conner Uselton (17) had a disappointing second summer after a hamstring tear ended his first summer in the system, and it's possible that he was still regaining leg strength last year, as he used the whole field well but didn't hit with any oomph. (Technical term.) He will turn 21 in May and has yet to get to full-season ball, so while I liked the swing and potential for some pop and above-average defense, he needs to go produce.

Mason Martin (18) earned attention for the 11 homers he hit in 39 games in the GCL in 2017, but he was totally overmatched by Low-A pitching last year and still struggled with contact even after a demotion to the Appy League. He is strong, and the raw power is real, but if anything, he is too muscled up and his swing gets very long. Braxton Ashcraft (19) was Pittsburgh's second-round pick, a reach for me at the time; he is an extremely projectable prep right-hander with a below-average present fastball but a good delivery that gets him well-extended over his front side.

Korean shortstop Ji-Hwan Bae (20), signed after the commissioner's office voided his deal with Atlanta after 2017, is a plus runner with some potential at shortstop. He is a long way from the majors, but he had a solid pro debut in the GCL last summer at age 18.

Others of note: Right-hander Braeden Ogle, the Pirates' fourth-round pick in 2016, looked very good when I saw him in March, working at 91 to 95 mph with some good four-seam ride, as well as an above-average changeup and below-average curveball; but he eventually was shut down with a shoulder injury after making just four starts in Low-A. Vanderbilt shortstop Connor Kaiser, their 2018 third-round pick, is a reliable defender with some bat-to-ball skills and might squeeze out a utility infielder career. Nick Burdi debuted with the Pirates in September and had most of his stuff back, working in the mid-90s with a mid-80s slider, and he has to spend about two more months on the major league roster this year to fulfill the Rule 5 requirements dating back to when he was selected after 2017.

2019 impact: Newman could be the Pirates' starting shortstop this year. And either Kramer or Reyes could be their utility infielder; Reyes might be the better option, as he has outfield experience and Kramer could improve with more at-bats in Triple-A. Burdi will be in the major league bullpen, at least to start the year. Keller actually isn't that far off, but he needs to improve his third pitch, and then he has to wait for an opening.

Sleeper: Mitchell's biggest problem in 2018 wasn't opposing pitchers but his own stamina -- he wore down visibly as the summer went on, and it showed in his performance, hitting .308/.370/.492 before the Sally League's all-star break and .246/.313/.350 after it. He still earned praise even from scouts who saw him late in the summer for his approach and pretty left-handed swing, and perhaps he'll be better able to handle the burden of his second full year in the pros.

The fallen: Austin Meadows still might turn into a good big leaguer, but it never happened in five years with the Pirates, a tenure more marked by all the time he missed due to injuries than by highlights. The ninth overall pick in 2013 crossed the 400 plate appearance mark in just two of his five full seasons in pro ball, and he has yet to produce positive major league value. The Pirates closed this particular chapter by including him in the Chris Archer trade.

CHICAGO CUBS

This system went downhill in a hurry, the result of a couple of big trades, lost draft picks, a few high picks that haven't worked out and a lot of injuries to pitching prospects they signed from Latin America.

1. Miguel Amaya, C (ranked No. 91)
2. Nico Hoerner, SS (Just missed)
3. Brailyn Marquez, LHP
4. Adbert Alzolay, RHP
5. Brennen Davis, OF
6. Cole Roederer, OF
7. Matt Swarmer, RHP
8. Aramis Ademan, SS
9. Oscar De La Cruz, RHP
10. Erich Uelmen, RHP

Brailyn Marquez is the latest in the Cubs' line of hard-throwing Latin American pitchers who have big upside but several development boxes to check before they could become potential starters. He is throwing his fastball up to 98 mph and will show a solid-average changeup with good action, although the pitch is inconsistent right now. At 6-foot-4 and about 225 pounds, he has filled out well since signing, and he has a starter's build. He comes from a slow, below-three-quarters delivery, and it's a bad arm action and release point for a curveball, so it's unsurprising that his is well below average and that left-handed hitters smacked him around in short-season ball last summer. I think he has to try a slider from that slot, and if that happens, then he could be a mid-rotation starter.

Adbert Alzolay was a top 100 guy a year ago, but he barely pitched in 2018 -- and not well -- before he was shut down with a lat injury in June. The Venezuelan right-hander has two-plus pitches in his fastball and curveball, with a changeup that might be average but that he must use more often so that he can develop more confidence in it. You could flip a coin between him and Marquez for me: Alzolay is further along, but he's smaller and might not have Marquez's upside or durability.

The Cubs had two second-round picks in 2018 and used them on Brennen Davis and Cole Roederer, both high school outfielders, taken in that order. Davis is a superb athlete who also starred in basketball, a 6-foot-4, 200-pound centerfielder who is a 70-grade runner and has tremendous makeup but needs to work on developing more consistent swing mechanics and improving his pitch recognition. Roederer is less of a pure athlete; he is an above-average runner with more present strength, but with a bit of a hitch in his swing that might prevent him from making hard contact. He has a better approach than Davis right now and also projects to stay in center, although the two might end up sharing time on their way up the ladder.

Matt Swarmer was the Cubs' minor league pitcher of the year in 2018, working with a fastball clocked up to 95 mph and an out-pitch slider, but he needs a better third pitch for lefties. After he was promoted to Double-A, he gave up seven homers to left-handed batters in 15 starts and allowed a .286/.322/.489 line to them. There are delivery questions too, as the funk in it that gives him deception against right-handed batters works against his timing. He is probably a right-on-right reliever, although there's a path to starting if he gets something to use for lefties.

Aramis Ademan's season was an outright disaster. He wasn't ready for High-A after just 29 games in Low-A the previous year, and he did nothing well for Myrtle Beach, hitting .207/.291/.273, rolling over constantly to the second baseman and fielding poorly enough that scouts were ready to move him off shortstop. He should repeat the level in 2019, and he almost certainly is better than what we saw; he has strength in his hands and wrists to be able to use the opposite field far more than he did last season.

Oscar De La Cruz should get an award for the number of times he has appeared on the Cubs' list, but when he hasn't been hurt, he has been suspended, missing 80 games last year for testing positive for a banned masking agent. When he returned, his stuff was there but his command was off, and the results showed it, with a 5.24 ERA in Double-A and the worst walk rate of his pro career. In theory, there's a mid-rotation starter in here somewhere, but call me when he gets through a full season.

Erich Uelmen has a heavy, heavy sinker at 90 to 94 mph that generated a huge ground ball rate in Low-A, although his control wavered a little after his promotion to High-A, and he needs something more than his below-average changeup for lefties, who killed him in the Carolina League (.338/.427/.492!). But that sinker is a legit 60-grade pitch, and it could make him a longtime back-end starter with the right complementary pitch.

Right-hander Alex Lange (11), one of the Cubs' two first-round picks in 2017, had a decent year as a starter in High-A, but his future is in the bullpen. He might have two-plus weapons in his curveball and changeup, with a small reverse platoon split this year because the change was so effective, but his fastball is true and his arm action has always pointed to a relief role. If he goes to the pen now, he could be in the majors quickly because his stuff is already there.

Tyson Miller (12), the Cubs' fourth-round pick in 2016, is a big, physical right-hander (standing 6-foot-5). He was taken as a bit of a projection college arm who has started to fill out. His four-seamer has natural cut to it, and he has shown he can throw it for strikes. He bumped up his strikeout rate even with a level jump last year. Nineteen-year-old Yovanny Cruz (13) opened some eyes in the AZL with a 92 to 95 mph fastball and big spin on a curveball that he throws for strikes, and he has a starter's delivery and arm action. He is a six-foot right-hander but is well put together.

Lefty Justin Steele (14) was throwing 92 to 95 mph velocity in the AFL to go with an average breaking ball and enough of a changeup that he might be a fifth starter for someone in the next year; he returned in July from August 2017 Tommy John surgery. Command lefty Keegan Thompson (15) is probably a fifth starter, more a competitor than a stuff guy but aggressive enough to succeed with just average stuff. Southpaw Brendon Little (16) still has the plus curveball and above-average velocity, but his command and control were down all year and hitters got to his fastball too often. He also might have to go to a bullpen role. Right-hander Thomas Hatch (17) was the Cubs' first pick in 2016, the year they didn't draft until the third round; he has shown velocity but hasn't gotten ground balls as expected and gets lit up by left-handed batters.

Right-hander Michael Rucker (18) is a fastball/curveball guy who might be good in a long relief role, throwing everything for strikes but whose stuff is a little short to start. Right-hander Duncan Robinson (19) is a kitchen-sink sort of guy, throwing five pitches, all for strikes, nothing plus, from a 6-foot-6 frame that makes him a little tougher to hit. He could be a fifth starter.

The Cubs tried to start outfielder Nelson Velazquez (20) in Low-A last year, but the 19-year-old struck out in 36 percent of his plate appearances in about five weeks. So the Cubs returned him to short-season ball, where he got his K rate under 30 percent and finished in the top 10 in the league in isolated slugging (ISO). He is an above-average runner, throws well, has real power and just has to show he can hit enough to get to it.

2019 impact: The Cubs could get bullpen help from internal candidates, but there are no prospects here ready for a lineup or rotation spot in 2019.

Sleeper: Davis had a lot of fans among area scouts in the Four Corners region last spring, guys who loved the combination of elite athletic ability and outstanding makeup. Cruz would be the deep sleeper, if we're looking two years out.

The fallen: Hard-throwing right-hander Jose Albertos, signed for $1.5 million in 2015, had the yips last year, walking 65 in 30⅓ innings across two levels. It's not impossible to come back from that, but it's incredibly difficult.

CINCINNATI REDS

The Reds were on the edge of a top-five system before trading away two of their top 10 prospects as well as some depth, although it's still very strong up top and features three prospects who are the envy of almost every other farm system in baseball.

1. Nick Senzel, 3B/2B/SS/CF (ranked No. 6)
2. Taylor Trammell, OF (ranked No. 12)
3. Hunter Greene, RHP (ranked No. 16)
4. Jonathan India, 3B (ranked No. 76)
5. Tony Santillan, RHP (ranked No. 83)
6. Tyler Stephenson, C
7. Mike Siani, OF
8. Bren Spillane, OF
9. Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP
10. Lyon Richardson, RHP

Tyler Stephenson wore down last summer, in his first full season catching without injuries or other interruptions. He still has an outside shot to be a regular catcher because of his power and arm strength, although he hasn't been as successful as expected in throwing out runners, and his receiving is still below average.

As always, these rankings combine my firsthand evaluation of players, copious input from MLB scouts and executives, and the players' performance to date. Age and position also factor heavily into rankings, as players up the middle are more valuable (they're scarcer) than those on the corners, and players who succeed while young for the levels in which they play tend to become better big leaguers.

Player rankings are team-agnostic: A prospect would get the same ranking or evaluation if he played for Miami that he would get if he played for Colorado. Any numerical grades assigned to players are on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major league average and 80 is Billy Hamilton's speed or Joey Gallo's power.

Players who have lost Rookie of the Year eligibility (more than 130 at bats, 50 innings, or 45 days on the active 25-man roster) do not count toward these rankings.

Mike Siani was the Reds' fourth-round pick, but he signed for well over slot, and it was a shrewd pickup, as Siani had a poor spring thanks to a private hitting coach who changed his swing to try to improve his launch angle. Siani is unlikely to be a power hitter. But he is a plus runner who has the hand strength for hard line-drive contact and projects as at least a 60-grade defender in center with a plus arm (he was throwing 93 to 94 mph off the mound for his high school team).

Bren Spillane, Cincinnati's third-rounder in 2018, mashed at the University of Illinois in the spring; but then he struck out in 41 percent of his plate appearances in the short-season Pioneer League over the summer, an inauspicious debut for a 21-year-old who has to play a corner. He is big and physical but moves well enough that he might be OK in right field, boosted by his plus arm. He has to make more contact to be a regular.

The velocity of Vladimir Gutierrez will sit at 95 mph, which he complements with a solid-average breaking ball that lacks deception and a below-average changeup. He has been altering his arm slot to try to fool hitters and had success as a starter, but the stuff and arm action make it more likely he ends up in relief.

Lyon Richardson was primarily a position player in high school but blew up as a pitcher last year, mostly due to arm strength. He's really a thrower, not a complete pitcher, and there's a ton of reliever risk here. But he is throwing in the mid-90s now, and he could end up in the upper 90s with some refinement.

Keury Mella (11) has had two brief call-ups in the past two years, and he was more successful in his second Double-A go-round in 2018. He is a fastball/slider guy with just enough of a changeup to maybe spend time as a fifth starter, although the Reds' plan to compete in 2019 probably makes him a long man or reliever. Outfielder Mariel Bautista (12) is toolsy and very projectable, wiry with lots of room to fill out, and while his setup at the plate can be a little noisy; his swing looks geared to drive the ball out to left-center. He is a plus runner who could stay in center long term, and unlike a lot of the toolsier players in this system, he rarely strikes out.

Outfielder Jose Siri (13) is a classic tools goof, with plusses and 70 grades all over his scouting report and very little idea of what he's doing at the plate, hitting .239/.294/.449 between High-A and Double-A last year with a 30 percent strikeout rate at age 22. He has power, speed and arm strength, but he probably has a 30-grade present hit tool with no signs of progress over the past two years. He is here because if he ever figures out a little pitch recognition, he'll end up in the majors in some capacity.

Shortstop Jose Israel Garcia (14) impressed scouts with his defensive gifts, from his hands to his range to his arm, but he didn't hit at all last year, walking just 19 times in 517 PA and making low-quality contact when he put the ball in play. He does need to get stronger, but with no plan at the plate, he won't be more than a defensive replacement. TJ Friedl (15) is a nice extra outfielder with a decent eye at the plate but very little power, unlikely to hit enough to be a regular and not fast enough to be an impact defender in center.

Jimmy Herget (16) is a low-slot right-hander who could have pitched in the majors last year as a righty specialist, although he had a reverse platoon split in Triple-A last year that I don't think means anything long term. Shortstop Miguel Hernandez (17) has good actions at the position and projects to stay there, but he needs to add a lot of strength to his lean, wiry frame just to hit enough to profile as a backup. He'll turn 20 in April and will likely start the season in Low-A. Outfielder Michael Beltre (18) is now entering his seventh year in the system and hasn't reached Double-A yet, despite above-average power and run tools, mostly because he makes too much weak contact, including a ground ball rate over 58 percent last year between Low-A and High-A. He was Rule 5 eligible, but the Reds elected not to protect him. Given his size -- he is listed at 6-foot-3, 220 pounds -- he seems like a candidate for Max Muncy-style swing change.

Reliever Ryan Hendrix (19) will touch 97 mph with fastball to go with a hammer-of-the-gods curveball; there was no good reason for him to spend all of 2018 in High-A, striking out 36 percent of opposing batters, at age 23. His fastball can be true and he walked too many guys, but he needed the challenge of Double-A. Lefty Scott Moss (20) has a fastball that is light at 88 to 92 mph, but he has an average slider and throws a ton of strikes, enough that he could end up a sixth starter/long man type.

Others of note: Right-hander Joel Kuhnel throws up to 98 mph but with no average second pitch, throwing a lot of strikes with a stiff arm action that's going to make it hard for him to spin the ball. I'd like to see him try a splitter, given where his hand is at release. The Reds' 28th-rounder from 2018, Rylan Thomas, had a strong pro debut in the Appy League at age 21, showing some patience and power, but he was old for the level. He has power, but he is limited to first base, and he struck out way too often at the University of Central Florida.

2019 impact: Senzel has been working out in center field and could end up winning that job in the spring or (cough) about two weeks of service time into the season. Herget would fit in their bullpen at any point this year.

Sleeper: Bautista is fascinating because he has physical tools and yet has at least shown signs of plate discipline in short-season leagues. There are little issues with his swing, and he has to fill out as projected, but I could see a profile as an above-average regular in center field coming from where he is today.

The fallen: Cincinnati's 2017 second-rounder, Stuart Fairchild, was too old for Low-A, where he started the year, but he didn't hit at all after a midyear promotion to High-A, slugging just .350 for Daytona even though he was actively looking to pull the ball. He runs well enough to be a quality fourth outfielder who can fill in at all three spots, but this debut was a big disappointment given his age and past projections for his bat.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

The Brewers traded a lot of second-tier prospects over the past two years to bulk up for a pair of playoff runs, and it paid off with last year's October run that got them within a game of the World Series. They're as shallow as they've been in some time, although they have some high-ticket international July 2 prospects who could help turn things around in a year or two.

1. Keston Hiura, 2B (ranked No. 21)
2. Zack Brown, RHP (ranked No. 85)
3. Tristen Lutz, OF
4. Corey Ray, OF
5. Brice Turang, SS
6. Mauricio Dubon, SS/2B
7. Lucas Erceg, 3B
8. Mario Feliciano, C
9. Adrian Houser, RHP
10. Aaron Ashby, LHP

Tristen Lutz is a corner outfielder with good hand control at the plate, making hard contact now, and who should come into 25-plus-homer power in time, although he was a little overmatched at times in Low-A last year at age 19 (understandable). He possesses 60-grade raw power and has enough of an idea at bat now to eventually be a solid OBP guy; but his feet are heavy and he is likely to lose some speed going forward, so he might end up a below-average defender who has to mash to be a good regular.

Corey Ray changed his approach last year and started selling out for power, which sort of worked, as he hit 27 homers in Double-A after hitting seven the year before in High-A, helped a little by the ballpark in Biloxi. But it also led to 176 strikeouts, just a shade under 30 percent of his PA. He is a plus runner with good instincts on the bases, but he still isn't very good in center field and would likely end up in left in the majors. I thought he had a chance to be a star when he was at Louisville, because I thought he could hit for power and still make more contact than this; but if it's one or the other, which seems to be his choice at the moment, he is more of a soft regular/extra outfielder.

Brice Turang, the Brewers' first-round pick in 2018, is a plus defender at short with power, but there are questions about his ability to hit. He has a good-looking swing but not much bat speed. I'd be surprised if he ended up less than a solid backup, though. Mauricio Dubon missed almost all of 2018 after tearing an ACL, but he should be ready to go for spring training; and he ought to be on the Brewers' list of potential second base options right now, as he is closer to being ready than Hiura is and doesn't have the latter's throwing limitations. Dubon looks like either a solid regular at second or a very good utility player who hits for enough average to get close to full time at bats.

Lucas Erceg hasn't progressed as expected, in part because he is so aggressive early in the count and has stopped pulling the ball as much as he used to -- while obviously not walking much, either. He rarely swings and misses, but he could make better decisions to try to get to a pitch he can drive. He also has lost some weight since signing, which isn't helping his power output. He is fine at third with a cannon of an arm, but he might have lost a half-grade of defense over the past year or so.

Mario Feliciano is a solid catch-and-throw guy who had some promise with the bat. He hurt his thumb on a tag play at the plate early in the year, playing just 42 games for High-A Carolina and failing to hit at all. He'll play this entire year at age 20 and should repeat that level, where I hope his high strikeout rate (36 percent) was an artifact of his youth and the injury, as I always liked his swing's direct path to the ball.

Adrian Houser could be the Brewers' Corbin Burnes/Brandon Woodruff this year, assuming Brown doesn't fulfill that role. If not, Houser should be someone's fifth starter; I have positive reports from every scout who saw him last year, yet the Brewers seemed disinclined to rely on him for more than mop-up work. I don't know if the fastball plays up to its velocity, but he can spin a good, hard curveball in the low 80s and throws strikes, enough to have some role on a major league roster right now.

Aaron Ashby was Milwaukee's 2018 fourth-round pick. He is a high arm-slot lefty, coming almost over the top, with up to 95 mph velocity as well as a plus curveball that has power and depth and might even be enough to get some right-handers out. The delivery isn't pretty, but to his credit, he had a much lower walk rate in pro ball than he did in junior college, even after a mid-summer promotion to Low-A. He would be a fast-track guy in relief, but I expect him to develop as a starter.

The Brewers took Je'Von Ward (11) in the 12th round in 2017 as a young senior -- he didn't turn 18 until four months after the draft -- and they worked on his swing mechanics after that season. That work yielded promising results last summer in the Pioneer League, where Ward hit .307/.391/.403 as one of the league's youngest players. He has very good hand-eye coordination but not much power with a swing that's close to flat, and he needs to convert his raw speed into better defense. Right-hander Trey Supak (12) got way too heavy and saw his stuff back up, although his weight came down a little last year. He will work with a fringe-average fastball, and he had shown an improved changeup last year and an above-average curveball in 2017 that was more average in 2018. He might be a back-end starter, but he has to maintain his body better. Joe Gray (13) looks like he should be hitting in the middle of someone's lineup, but like most prep bats from Mississippi, he is very crude as a hitter, although he showed some plate discipline in an otherwise uninspiring pro debut in the AZL. His swing path is good, and he should at least get into his power, although there are going to be questions about his hit tool until he produces. He has a cannon for an arm and should be a solid-average defender in right, if not more. Right-hander Marcos Diplan (14) struggled to throw strikes in High-A and Double-A last year, and he needs to go to the bullpen now, especially since he has been on the 40-man for a year already and has never had success above low-A across 2½ seasons. He is a fastball/changeup guy who runs reverse platoon splits, but he could end up as a Jesse Chavez-type relief option. Catcher Payton Henry (15) looks like a solid backup catcher who can handle a staff, throws well enough and might hit a handful of homers.

Others of note: Troy Stokes is a power/speed guy who just hasn't made enough contact in Double-A to profile as more than an extra outfielder, although he is the kind of prospect someone might want as the third player in a deal, thinking there's untapped potential here. The Brewers' 2017 second-round pick, right-hander Caden Lemons, battled minor stuff all year without a major injury, but he never got going and was inconsistent even when he did pitch. He is still very projectable and has been throwing heat up to the mid-90s. The Brewers took a flier on Drew Rasmussen, the Oregon State right-hander who had Tommy John surgery as a sophomore, came back quickly, was worked very hard by the Beavers right after his return and blew out a second time -- costing him what would have been around a $2 million signing bonus with the Rays. He is on ligament No. 3, and we'll see what he looks like when he returns; he seemed like a potential impact reliever when he was healthy.

Right-hander Adam Hill came to the Brewers as part of an offseason deal that sent Keon Broxton to the Mets after being selected in the fourth round in June, and he was more effective as a reliever in short-season than he was as a starter in the SEC at South Carolina; he doesn't have the command or control to start, and his low arm slot probably pushes him to the pen anyway. The Brewers also have a quartet of big-bonus Latin American teenagers -- shortstop Eduardo Garcia and outfielders Eduarqui Fernandez, Carlos Rodriguez and Larry Ernesto -- who might hit this list in a year or two,. Ernesto probably has the best tools, while Rodriguez has the best present combination of tools and ability to play, with plus speed and a chance to be a plus defender in center and a leadoff type at the plate.

2019 impact: Dubon should get a shot at the second-base job before Hiura, who is probably a half-season or more away and of course still has to show he can play the field every day around whatever is going on with his throwing elbow. Brown and/or Houser would be great candidates for the long relief roles occupied by Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff last year, with both of those guys likely in the 2019 rotation (as they should be).

Sleeper: Ward seems like the safest bet of their younger guys to take a big leap this year, not counting the players I've mentioned who have yet to reach the U.S. I also have not given up on Feliciano, since his year was ruined by the injury and he is still quite young.

The fallen: Trent Grisham (formerly known as Trent Clark) was the Brewers' first-round pick in 2015, and even industry folks who didn't love him thought he had some potential to hit; but he hasn't now for three years, moving up to Double-A last year and hitting .233/.356/.337, drawing a ton of walks, rarely striking out and making a lot of low-quality contact.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cards' system is still deep in guys with probable major league impact. But they have fewer potential stars than they have had in the past few years thanks to trades and promotions, as well as the loss of two high draft picks as a penalty for their hacking scandal a few years ago. They might have really scored with their first-rounder last year, however, and the July trades of Tommy Pham and prospect Oscar Mercado added some more depth to the lower levels of their farm.

1. Nolan Gorman, 3B (ranked No. 39)
2. Alex Reyes, RHP (ranked No. 42)
3. Eli Montero, 3B (ranked No. 64)
4. Andrew Knizner, C
5. Dylan Carlson, OF
6. Dakota Hudson, RHP
7. Ryan Helsley, RHP
8. Genesis Cabrera, LHP
9. Jhon Torres, OF
10. Randy Arozarena, OF

Andrew Knizner's 2018 season likely helped the Cardinals decide to move Carson Kelly in the Paul Goldschmidt trade. That's because Knizner hit .313/.368/.430, mostly in Double-A with a brief stint in Triple-A, and he has worked himself into enough of a defender that there's no real thought of moving him to another spot. He is still an offense-first catcher, but he works well with pitchers and calls the game nicely. He throws well too, although last year, his caught stealing rate dipped to 26 percent after a 45 percent rate in his first year and a half in pro ball.

Dylan Carlson spent most of 2018 in High-A as a 19-year-old and showed excellent bat control and plate discipline, although between his current build and the Florida State League's effect on power, he didn't do much on balls in play. He does show raw power in batting practice with a swing that should lead to game power as he fills out and now as he moves to a better hitting environment in Double-A. He has a plus arm and enough range to be a solid-average defender in right.

Dakota Hudson reached the majors last year as a reliever and that's likely his role going forward, with a potential out pitch in his cutter but a tough arm action to repeat as a starter. He didn't miss enough bats working as a starter in High-A through Triple-A to project for that role, either, but he should help the Cardinals in their bullpen this year.

Ryan Helsley got off to a strong start last year, reaching Triple-A by June, but he was shut down with flexor strain in his right forearm and missed almost three months the rest of the season. He is still a two-pitch guy, fastball/curveball, with a changeup that's far enough behind the other two pitches that it's not clear he can start. If he moves to the bullpen, either because he doesn't get that third pitch or the Cardinals simply need a reliever this year, his mid-90s fastball might sit 97 to 98 mph in that role, and his below-average command should be less of an issue.

Genesis Cabrera was the main piece coming back in the Tommy Pham trade. He is a small lefty with a real four-pitch mix, including a 93 to 96 mph fastball, plus a changeup, a new cutter that flashes plus and a show-me curveball. He is about 6 feet tall and on the slighter side, so there's a question about his durability, but he has been healthy throughout his pro career to date. The bigger concern now is that his walk rates are consistently too high, even with a solid arm action. That's probably the difference between him pitching in the middle of a rotation in two years versus pitching in a bullpen.

The Cardinals added Jhon Torres and outfielder Conner Capel (11) in the July trade that sent Oscar Mercado to Cleveland. The Colombian-born Torres was just 18 in the AZL last year and impressed there, with a now body and plus raw power, hitting .273/.351/.424, and then went off for the GCL Cardinals by hitting .397/.493/.683 in 17 games. That's the opposite of what you'd expect, since the Phoenix area is 1,000 feet above sea level and Florida's parks tend to suppress power. He has a 50 to 55 arm and already plays right field, where he should be average on defense. He needs reps, but there's no projection to wait on, and he could move quickly for his age. Capel hit 22 homers as a 20-year-old for Low-A Lake County in 2017, but he didn't repeat it across High-A last year; and while there might be 55 power here, he's not getting to it right now. He has the athleticism and above-average speed to handle all three outfield spots; but last year, he looked overmatched, and he might end up spending more than just a year at Double-A.

Randy Arozarena can really fly, and he would steal 40 bags if he played for a full season. But he's caught with an in-between approach, with just enough power to get himself in trouble but a swing with a dead-hands start that's going to prevent him from hitting enough homers to compensate for just fair on-base skills. He played mostly corner outfield in Triple-A last year, while Oscar Mercado was in center, but Arozarena can handle center and should be at least a 55 defender out there.

Edmundo Sosa (12) is an above-average defender at short who hits for contact and more power than you would expect from the position or from his build, thanks to apparent wrist strength. But he is too much of a free-swinger early in counts and just doesn't get on base -- his season high in unintentional walks is just 20. He could sneak into 15 to 20 homers a year if he just works the count more to try to get ahead so he can get something to drive, and that would make him starter caliber.

Justin Williams (13) came over with Cabrera in the Pham deal, traded in the middle of his worst year as a pro, although he had huge raw power in high school and had a solid track record of contact in the minors, just with way too many ground balls. I said at the time of the trade that he would be a perfect candidate for launch angle optimization, because if he hits the ball in the air, he's going to hit some bombs. Right-hander Griffin Roberts (14) had one of the best sliders in the draft class with a rough, high-effort delivery that makes him almost certain to end up a reliever.

Connor Jones (15) generates a ton of ground balls and can work with 93 to 97 mph velocity, but he has below-average command and neither his curve nor change is average right now. His delivery became way too upright at the University of Virginia -- a big reason the most successful major league pitcher who went to UVA is still lefty specialist Javier Lopez -- but there are at least major league ingredients here. Luken Baker (16) might be a right-handed Matt Adams, with huge raw power, a good idea at the plate, the potential to swing and miss and very little defensive value -- possibly so little that he ends up a designated hitter.

Alvaro Seijas (17) struggled last year at 19 in full-season ball, his first full pro season, but his stuff was still there, including a plus fastball and two solid-average secondary pitches. He made a lot of mistakes out of inexperience, including pitch selection, and he needs to improve his feel for what could be a very good changeup. But his delivery works, and he has the size and repertoire to still develop into a big league starter. Center fielder Jonatan Machado (18) wasn't ready for Low-A in April, as he is still quite small and hasn't come into enough strength yet, although he did bounce back to at least hit for average and make more contact in the short-season Appy League. He is a plus runner, but that will only matter if he shows he can make enough hard contact to get on base. It's a classic leadoff profile, with speed and center-field defense if he gets there.

The Cardinals took Jake Woodford (19) out of high school as a sinker/slider guy, but he doesn't sink the ball enough or miss enough bats to profile as a starter. He either has to change his pitch mix -- probably to reemphasize the two-seamer so he gets more ground balls -- or move to the bullpen. Junior Fernandez (20) threw just 30 innings in relief -- all in the last three months of the minor league season, the second year in a row he missed significant time due to arm soreness -- and wasn't selected in the Rule 5 draft. He'll be clocked throwing up to 97 mph to go with a plus changeup, but he hasn't been healthy or shown close to average control for two years now.

Others of note: Johan Oviedo's stuff improved a little in his second season in the minors, but the giant Cuban right-hander also walked 79 batters in 121 innings in Low-A. Max Schrock was awful in his first year in Triple-A, with a hard-to-believe .260 BABIP after he had been at .329 or above in that area in every previous stop of his career. He makes a ton of contact and can play enough defense at third and second to be a decent bench piece. The Cardinals also rolled the dice on Texas Tech lefty Stephen Gingery in the fourth round, even though he missed the spring due to Tommy John surgery. Prior to the surgery, he was a strike-thrower with an average fastball and plus changeup, lacking an average breaking ball, with some back-end starter upside and a high floor in the pen.

2019 impact: Hudson should spend the year in the major league bullpen. Reyes could hit the roster in August and September if his rehab goes well. I'm not sure there's a role now for anyone else.

Sleeper: Torres fits the profile of a hitter who might go to Low-A at 19 this year and produce right away, since he already has the strength of a player a little older and he showed a solid approach in rookie ball.

The fallen: Delvin Perez tested positive for a banned performance enhancer in his draft year, pushing him from likely top 10 pick to the 23rd pick, where the Cardinals rolled the dice -- a gamble I still think was smart, even though it hasn't worked out. And I mean it hasn't worked out at all: Perez hit .213/.301/.272 in short-season State College last year at age 19, still hasn't seen a day in full-season ball and gets negative reviews from scouts for his effort level and even his defense -- one thing that seemed like it would always be there for him.