GIANT KILLERS' 10 MOST LIKELY FIRST-ROUND UPSETS IN THE 2019 NCAA TOURNAMENT

Let's say you're a rabid college basketball fan, but even a die-hard like you isn't up to speed on the most granular performance details of teams out of the Big West or the Ohio Valley Conference. Plus, by the way, you still want to win your bracket.

Giant Killers is here to help.

One proven method for putting distance between you and your competitors in the bracket pool is correctly picking a small but ultimately crucial number of upsets. Here are the 10 most likely such games in the first round, according to GK methodology.

As always at Giant Killers, we're looking exclusively at games in which an underdog defeats an opponent seeded at least five lines higher. Choose wisely (meaning, no, don't go with all 10 of these), and watch your bracket ranking soar to new heights. Good luck!

NO. 12 MURRAY STATE RACERS VS. NO. 5 MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES

UPSET CHANCE: 34 percent

When in doubt, back Ja Morant, right?

He's the big reason why we make Murray State our top upset pick and why any Giant ought to fear facing the Racers -- in the first round or otherwise. We'll also just throw this out there: The team that occupied this spot last year was ... Loyola-Chicago.

NO. 11 BELMONT BRUINS VS. NO. 6 MARYLAND TERRAPINS

UPSET CHANCE: 32 percent

Rick Byrd's team will have to get by Temple in the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, but if the Bruins make it that far the GK model likes their chances, relatively speaking, against the Terrapins. Dylan Windler leads a Belmont offense that will actually be the higher-ranked scoring attack on the floor when the at-large team from the Ohio Valley Conference takes on the No. 6 seed from the Big Ten.

NO. 4 FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES VS. NO. 13 VERMONT CATAMOUNTS

UPSET CHANCE: 27 percent

It's not quite as cushy of a matchup as Kansas State would have been, but in Florida State the Catamounts drew a beatable opponent. The Seminoles send opponents to the line at a high rate, something Vermont ought to take full advantage of with its high-efficiency free throw shooting. Add in a regional advantage -- something our Giant Killers model doesn't account for -- and we're even more bullish on Vermont's chances.

NO. 11 SAINT MARY'S GAELSVS. NO. 6 VILLANOVA WILDCATS

UPSET CHANCE: 26 percent

Irresistible force vs. immovable object? Sort of! You might have heard Villanova likes to attempt an occasional 3-point shot, but what you might not know is that the Gaels are exceptionally good at preventing those tries. That, plus beastly offensive rebounding from Jordan Hunter & Co. means SMC should be able to give the defending national champions a game.

NO. 11 ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS VS. NO. 6 BUFFALO BULLS

UPSET CHANCE: 26 percent

Above all else, expect a fast and entertaining pace in this one. Both the Bulls and the Sun Devils like to get out in transition, and neither team is particularly adept at hitting 3s. He doesn't get as much notice as teammates Luguentz Dort and Remy Martin, but, at 6-foot-8, Zylan Cheatham could come up big for ASU in this one.

NO. 5 AUBURN TIGERS VS. NO. 12 NEW MEXICO STATE AGGIES

UPSET CHANCE: 24 percent

Auburn won the SEC tournament, but our Giant Killers model isn't completely sold on the Tigers. The Aggies, who are on a 19-game run, will hold a significant advantage on the boards and will be a tough out in the first round.

NO. 11 TEMPLE OWLS VS. NO. 6 MARYLAND TERRAPINS

UPSET CHANCE: 24 percent

Temple will be an underdog first against Belmont, but if the Owls can make it out of the First Four they have a decent shot to bounce the Terrapins. Temple was fortunate twice: first to get into the tournament at all, and second to face Maryland in the round of 64. Among all possible opponents seeded No. 6 or better, Maryland was Temple's best option -- mostly because the Terrapins are only the 28th-best team in the country, per BPI.

NO. 12. LIBERTY FLAMES VS. NO. 5 MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS

UPSET CHANCE: 23 percent

Former Virginia assistant coach Ritchie McKay favors a slow tempo, and within that system the Flames excel at getting the shots they want. Scottie James and Caleb Homesley are paragons of efficiency inside the arc, and Ben Howland's Bulldogs will have to be ready to play 20-something seconds of tough defense again and again if they want to reach the round of 32.

NO. 13 UC IRVINE ANTEATERS VS. NO. 4 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS

UPSET CHANCE: 22 percent

Kansas State's excellence on defense comes in part from forcing a high number of turnovers, but the UCI backcourt of Max Hazzard and Robert Cartwright has helped the Anteaters keep a low turnover rate all season long. Factor in that coach Russell Turner's defense is pretty good in its own right and that the Wildcats prefer a slow pace and you could have the makings of a low-scoring upset.

NO. 11 OHIO STATE BUCKEYES VS. NO. 6 IOWA STATE CYCLONES

UPSET CHANCE: 20 percent

Chris Holtmann's team more or less fell into a No. 11 seed when Kaleb Wesson was suspended late in the season, and the Buckeyes promptly went 0-3 without him on the floor. But now the 6-foot-9 sophomore is back, and that's potentially bad news for the Cyclones. OSU's perimeter-oriented offense is effective when it minimizes turnovers and creates the space necessary for Wesson to thrive in the post.

A BONUS 11TH

NO. 13 NORTHEASTERN HUSKIES VS. NO. 4 KANSAS JAYHAWKS

UPSET CHANCE: 19 percent

Can Northeastern take advantage of a down-year Kansas team? Our model still has it as an unlikely proposition -- even a depleted Jayhawks squad still features Dedric Lawson, after all -- but the Huskies are the better 3-point-shooting team, which you like to see in an underdog.