MARCH MADNESS 2019

10 TEAMS WITH THE TOUGHEST PATH TO THE FINAL FOUR

March Madness delivered some bad news for these 10 highly-ranked teams who have a daunting task to make it to the Final Four. Can they defy the odds?

Not all draws are created equal, and the NCAA Tournament is no exception. The selection committee does its best to set up the 68-team field as evenly as possible, but some teams draw the short end of the stick every year.

This year I have identified 10 squads that are going to have a brutal time getting through their regions and reaching Minneapolis, but let’s get it started with the Big Ten champs.

10. MICHIGAN STATE

The Spartans definitely have a gripe with the Selection Committee, which left them with a no. 2 seed despite winning both the Big Ten regular season and tournament titles. North Carolina, which won neither crown in the ACC, ended up on the top line instead.

To add insult to injury, the Spartans landed as the no. 2 seed in the East Region, meaning they will have to take down Zion Williamson and Duke to get to Minneapolis.

Michigan State could also run into more trouble ahead of that matchup with a tricky game against either Louisville or Minnesota in the Round of 32. If the Spartans get to the Sweet 16, a showdown with the SEC’s regular season champs, LSU, could be waiting in the wings for Michigan State.

9. TENNESSEE

Getting walloped by Auburn in the SEC title game did no favors for the Volunteers, who likely played themselves off the top line with their performance on Sunday. Instead, Tennessee ended up with the no. 2 seed in the South region and have a treacherous road to Minneapolis ahead of them.

Although they have a lay-up in the first round, Tennessee could be staring at a date with Mick Cronin’s Cincinnati Bearcats in the Round of 32. The Bearcats play some of the nastiest defense in the country and like to get into knockdown, drag-em-out fights so that matchup could be a war.

The Sweet 16 could offer up Purdue, which won a share of the Big Ten’s regular season title, and hot shooting Carsen Edwards. Assuming Tennessee survives all of that, their reward would be a date with Virginia, which has lost just three games all season.

The Volunteers certainly have the experience to weather this path, but it will not be easy for Tennessee to get to the Final Four out of the South.

8. KANSAS

For the first time in a long time, the Kansas Jayhawks didn’t claim either the Big 12’s regular season title or conference tournament crown. As a result, the Jayhawks were handed a no. 4 seed by the committee, and their road to Minneapolis is fraught with peril.

After a first round matchup with Northeastern, the Jayhawks could draw the winner of the 5-12 matchup between Auburn and New Mexico State. New Mexico State is one of the nation’s most potent mid-majors, racking up 30 wins during the season, and Auburn just demolished Tennessee to claim the SEC Tournament title.

If Kansas survives that game, they would face off with a North Carolina team that may be the best team in the country not named Duke. The Tar Heels could present matchup problems for the thin Jayhawks, who have been decimated by injuries throughout the year.

Last but not least would be an Elite Eight matchup with John Calipari and Kentucky, which already beat Kansas once this season. All of these roadblocks make it very hard to see a path back to the Final Four for the Jayhawks.

7. TEXAS TECH

The Red Raiders lost in their first game of the Big 12 Tournament to last place West Virginia, and that may have cost Texas Tech dearly. The defeat probably knocked Texas Tech out of consideration for a 2-seed, landing them on the three line in the West region.

The Red Raiders should be able to get by Northern Kentucky without much difficulty, but Texas Tech could be staring at a showdown with Buffalo in the second round. The Bulls are the nation’s most talented mid-major team and loaded with tournament experience after upsetting Arizona a year ago, so they will be a very stern test for the Red Raiders.

Surviving that gauntlet could earn Texas Tech a date with Michigan, one of the most battle-tested squads in the country. The Wolverines are filled with players who experienced a run to the national championship a year ago, and that experience is something that could give them an edge over Texas Tech.

The regional final doesn’t get any easier with a potential showdown against Gonzaga, which has quietly been forgotten in the conversation for national title contenders. The Bulldogs are the only team to beat a fully healthy Duke this season, which could give them the confidence that they can beat anyone who lines up across from them.

6. VIRGINIA TECH

The Hokies did good work to earn a no. 4 seed in the East region, and the selection committee gave them a decent first round matchup against Saint Louis. The Billikens earned their way into the dance by winning the Atlantic 10’s automatic bid, but they aren’t near as dangerous as other 13’s like Vermont.

After that the path to Minneapolis skyrockets in difficulty for Virginia Tech, which could square off against either Mississippi State or mid-major threat Liberty in the Round of 32. The Flames have a great shot to topple the Bulldogs in the 5-12 matchup and give Florida State major problems.

The Sweet 16 would bring another date with Duke, which Virginia Tech beat a few weeks ago, but with the caveat that the Blue Devils were without Zion Williamson. Williamson is healthy now, so the Hokies would have to contend with him this time.

If the Hokies can get past Williamson and Duke, they would square off against Michigan State with a trip to the Final Four on the line. Spartans’ coach Tom Izzo is one of the best in the country at getting his team ready to play on a quick turnaround, so it is very plausible that the Hokies could fall short of Minneapolis even if they do the unthinkable and knock out Duke.

5. VILLANOVA

The defending national champions are only a 6-seed despite winning both the Big East regular season title and tournament, but Villanova’s resume warranted a lower seed. The Wildcats had a tough year, struggling down the stretch, making their path towards a title defense very difficult.

Villanova will have to start off with a date with Saint Mary’s, which just knocked off Gonzaga to earn its ticket to the dance. Assuming they survive their date with the Gaels, Villanova is staring at a date with Purdue, which shared the Big Ten’s regular season title with Michigan State.

Next up would be a shot at the Tennessee Volunteers, who had a 19-game winning streak during the regular season and were ranked at the top of the polls for several weeks. The Volunteers are a deep squad that could create matchup problems for the Wildcats.

Last but not least would be a showdown with one of the best teams in the country, Virginia, for a trip to the Final Four. The Cavaliers’ Pack Line defense could give Villanova fits, but there’s a great chance they won’t even get that far.

4. KANSAS STATE

The selection committee clearly wasn’t a fan of the Big 12 this season, snubbing two of its schools for at-large bids and handing difficult paths to Minneapolis to several of its teams. Kansas State is the third Big 12 school on this list and they will have to fight tooth and nail to even return to the Elite Eight.

The Wildcats only ended up with a 4-seed in the South Region, and they might have ended up with the most difficult 13 in the field in UC Irvine. The Anteaters allow only 63.3 points per game, the 19th fewest in the country, and they should be locked in a low score game with the Wildcats.

Next up would be either a date with Wisconsin, which features do-it-all big man Ethan Happ, or one of the nation’s hottest teams in Oregon. The Ducks won eight straight games to end the year and steal the Pac-12’s automatic bid, so it wouldn’t be a shock if they keep their run going here.

Assuming Kansas State takes care of business and reaches Louisville, they would have to take on Virginia in the Sweet 16. The Cavalier’s Pack Line defense can slow anyone down, and Kansas State doesn’t score many points, to begin with, turning this into another low scoring affair.

Last but not least would be a showdown with Tennessee in the Elite Eight, and the Volunteers have plenty of firepower to try and outscore the Wildcats. Don’t be surprised if the Big 12’s regular season champs bow out early.

3. MARQUETTE

Five losses in six games to end the season proved very costly for Marquette. The Golden Eagles sank from a potential top-2 seed all the way to the five line, and it made a huge difference in their path to the Final Four.

Marquette will have to start the tournament facing off against future lottery pick Ja Morant and Murray State, with Morant having the ability to put the Racers on his back and carry them to victory. Next up for Marquette would be a date with Florida State, one of the most experienced teams in the field.

The Golden Eagles would have a date with Gonzaga if they get to Anaheim in the Sweet 16, and the Bulldogs are a team capable of beating anyone in the country. Markus Howard may be able to carry the Golden Eagles far, but even he would have a tough time with that task.

Assuming Marquette is still standing in the Elite Eight, they would have a showdown with Michigan awaiting them. The Wolverines are a Final Four dark horse due to their tournament experience and defensive pedigree, so things aren’t looking good for Golden Eagles’ fans.

2. FLORIDA STATE

The Seminoles failed to claim the ACC Tournament title against Duke, and it may have cost them dearly. Instead of ending up on the 3-line, Florida State ended up with the most difficult path a 4-seed could have gotten.

First up for the Seminoles is a showdown with 13-seed Vermont, which won 27 games and cruised through the America East. Whoever comes out of the 5-12 matchup won’t be easy for the Seminoles, who have to deal with either Markus Howard and Marquette or Ja Morant and Murray State.

Surviving that gauntlet gets Florida State to Anaheim, where they would be staring down the Gonzaga Bulldogs. The Bulldogs have another potential lottery pick on their roster in Rui Hachimura and a loaded rotation behind him, putting the onus on Florida State to match up with them.

Florida State would then earn a showdown with Michigan in the regional final, who topped them in the Elite Eight last year as well. The Wolverines are just as experienced as the Seminoles, taking away the one key advantage Florida State had over other teams in the field as they try and get to the Final Four.

1. KENTUCKY

It feels like an annual tradition for John Calipari to complain about his draw on ESPN, but this year he has a point. Kentucky got a layup in the first round, but every round after that is really hard.

The second round features either Wofford or Seton Hall, and those teams are scary. Wofford can shoot the lights out and are the owners of a 20-game winning streak, so they are more than capable of knocking out the Wildcats.

Kentucky has a tricky game in the Sweet 16 against Houston, which won 31 games during the season, and that won’t be easy. If the Wildcats survive that gauntlet, they would have to deal with North Carolina in the regional final.

The Tar Heels are a clear threat to win the title, and they stand in Calipari’s way to get to a Final Four. Even though Kentucky has all the talent to do it, the committee didn’t help them out by giving them the most difficult path to the Final Four.