Which teams will be the most aggressive when the free-agency
market opens?
I assess how active all 32 teams will be when the new league
year kicks off on March 13, based on the following scale:
- 1.
Aggressive
- 2. Active,
but not breaking the bank
- 3. Not
as active as fans might hope
1. AGGRESSIVE
ARIZONA
CARDINALS
They already have been aggressive in free agency, and
they're not expected to slow down. They should have more than $40 million in
cap space and will likely use most of it to rebound from a disappointing 3-13
season. They've already signed CB Robert Alford,
DE Brooks Reed and
TE Charles Clay--
all of whom fill needs. But Arizona still has gaps at wide receiver and on the
offensive line. General manager Steve Keim is set on bouncing back this season
by whatever means necessary. The Cardinals have the No. 1 overall pick and
will be aggressive in the draft, but Keim and new coach Kliff Kingsbury will
use free agency to put a bandage on immediate needs, especially on offense,
while using the draft to build long term. Keim has found success throughout his
career on one-year "prove it" deals with experienced veterans, so
look for more of those this offseason.
CLEVELAND
BROWNS
John Dorsey has been uber-aggressive from the day he took
over as the Browns' general manager. It would be fool's gold to believe that
Dorsey will not be aggressive in free agency with almost $80 million in salary
cap space. He has to keep some of that money for his players (Damarious
Randall), but Dorsey could strengthen the team at left tackle,
receiver, linebacker and perhaps cornerback with the cap space with which he
has to work
NEW YORK JETS
Prepare for a dizzying number of signings over the next few
weeks. The Jets have $102 million in cap space, and they'll need it because
they have a league-high 26 players headed to unrestricted free agency. After 14
wins in the past three seasons, the Jets' roster needs major help on both
sides of the ball. They will pursue running back Le'Veon Bell and
the best available edge rusher, which could be Dante Fowler, Trey Flowers or Anthony Barr.
Upgrading the offensive line is a must, and they can start by going after
centers Matt Paradis (Broncos)
or Mitch Morse (Chiefs).
The offseason goal is to improve Sam Darnold's
supporting cast. -- Rich Cimini
2. ACTIVE, BUT NOT
BREAKING THE BANK
BALTIMORE
RAVENS
First-year general manager Eric DeCosta has already recited
Ozzie Newsome's mantra of "right player, right price," which means
the Ravens are looking for the best values. Baltimore has around $26 million in
cap space after cutting wide receiver Michael Crabtree. That number can nearly
double when the trading of quarterback Joe Flacco ($10.5
million in cap savings) becomes official on March 13 and the possible cutting
of cornerback Jimmy Smith ($9.5
million) and safety Eric Weddle ($7.5
million). Even if the Ravens retain these veterans (especially if some agree to
pay cuts); the expectation is that Baltimore will add an edge rusher, interior
offensive lineman, running back and backup quarterback in free agency. But it
would be a surprise if DeCosta makes a splash like signing Le'Veon Bell
(although you can't rule it out entirely).
BUFFALO BILLS
General Manager Brandon Beane has about $80 million in cap
space after spending his first two seasons shedding salary and swallowing a
huge amount of dead money. That had some fans anticipating a spending spree
this offseason, especially to bolster the offense around quarterback Josh Allen,
but Beane wrote in a February letter to season-ticket holders that he would be
"active" but "calculated" in the free-agent market and
prefers to re-sign homegrown players in future years. Buffalo already signed
free-agent offensive lineman Spencer Long to
a three-year contract after he was cut by the Jets, and the team figures to
continue looking for veteran pieces to add along the offensive line, wide
receiver, tight end and potentially cornerback.
DENVER
BRONCOS
After a five-win season in 2017 and a six-win season in
2018, the Broncos have more needs than they can fill in free agency with their
current salary cap space -- projected at just over $37 million before the Joe
Flacco deal, and his $18.5 million cap hit, is added on March 13. Flacco's cap
hit will be the third-biggest until the team decides what to do with Case Keenum,
who is No. 2 ($21 million). So, they will be selective in free agency,
including trying to sign some of their own free agents, like center Matt Paradis.
They've already told linebacker Brandon
Marshall they do not expect to pay his bonus. Wide
receiver Emmanuel
Sanders, defensive end Derek Wolfe and
cornerback Chris Harris
Jr. have similar bonuses due. It likely means this roster is getting
younger and they will be as active as
they can be with their limited space.
DETROIT LIONS
GM Bob Quinn is focused on playmakers, and depending on what
the market looks like at certain positions (wide receiver, tight end, defensive
end, linebacker, cornerback), Detroit should be in play for mid- to high-level
players at those positions. Quinn hasn't shown to be someone who overpays, but
based on previous years, he is willing to pay for positions of need (see Marvin
Jones, Rick Wagner and T.J. Lang during
his tenure). Don't be surprised to see Quinn make a couple of strong free-agent
moves (Trey Flowers would be a player to look at if he makes it to free agency)
and then bolster with reasonably priced depth
GREEN BAY
PACKERS
The Packers don't have many of their own free agents who are
must-sign players, so that gives GM Brian Gutekunst even more freedom with his
$35 million in salary cap space. The question is does he make one big signing
or a handful of lower-priced moves? In his first offseason as GM last year, he
went the mid-level free-agent route with Jimmy Graham ($10
million per year), Muhammad
Wilkerson ($5 million) and Tramon
Williams ($5 million). Given the multitude of holes on his
roster, perhaps he'd go for quantity once again.
HOUSTON
TEXANS
Unlike last season when Houston attempted to make a big
free-agent splash, the Texans have three draft picks in the first two rounds,
which means they will likely use those to fill a few holes instead of needing
to go all-out in free agency. But Houston does have three big free agents on
defense -- defensive end/outside linebacker Jadeveon
Clowney, safety Tyrann
Mathieu and cornerback Kareem
Jackson -- and will try to re-sign all three if the price is
right.
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS
The Colts have an NFL-high of about $110 million in salary
cap space to try to address needs at pass-rusher, safety and receiver. Don't
get too excited, though. Colts GM Chris Ballard believes in taking a methodical
approach to free agency. They'll be active, but Ballard has said several times
they have a cap on how much they'll spend on a player. "We put a value on
a player, and when it gets out of our reach I just think we are comfortable
enough to sleep at night saying we are going to find an answer," Ballard
said. "... We are going to find an answer, whether it's in that first
window of free agency, maybe it's the second window, maybe it's the draft,
maybe it's after the draft, maybe it's at the cut-down day. There are times to
acquire players at all points during the season."
JACKSONVILLE
JAGUARS
GM Dave Caldwell said at the combine that the Jaguars can be
aggressive in free agency, and he's right -- but in spots. They will aggressively
pursue Nick Foles or
another veteran quarterback who they feel comfortable going with if they are
unable to get who they want in the draft. But as far as signing several high-priced
guys? That's not something to expect. They can pick and choose a spot --
offensive line most likely -- but don't expect the kind of haul they got in
2017 with Calais
Campbell, A.J. Bouye and
Barry Church.
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS
Free agency might look a lot like it did for the Chiefs last
year, when they splurged on wide receiver Sammy Watkins and
linebacker Anthony
Hitchens. It will likely be more about quality than quantity.
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS
The Chargers traditionally are selective in free agency,
waiting for things to calm down after the first few days of high-dollar investments
on players before making a move. This year likely will not be any different.
The Chargers are in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of cap space ($25.8
million), but could take a calculated risk on a player at a position of need
like linebacker or defensive lineman.
LOS ANGELES
RAMS
The Rams proved last offseason when they signed defensive
tackle Ndamukong Suh to
a one-year, $14 million contract that they are more than willing to approach
free agency aggressively. This offseason, with quarterback Jared Goff still
on his rookie contract, expect them to continue to be an aggressive -- but less
so than a year ago because of salary cap space, coupled with the need to fill a
few starting roles. With slightly more than $24.4 million available in cap
space, the Rams must settle a need for a starting-caliber pass-rusher,
defensive tackle and safety.
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS
Think of the Patriots' approach last year, and how they lost
more free agents than they signed, yet they still wound up winning the Super
Bowl. Why change what works for them? The approach also helped them add four
compensatory draft picks for 2019 -- two third-rounders, a sixth-rounder and a
seventh-rounder. The expectation is more of the same, with the club exploring
options in the trade market while also taking a closer look at those released
by teams who wouldn't count against the compensatory draft pick formula.
NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS
The Saints should probably be less active this year, with
only $10 million to $12 million in cap space. But that has never been their
style in the Mickey Loomis-Sean Payton era. Plus, they don't have any draft
picks in Rounds 1, 3 or 4 this year. Their top priority should be adding a
pass-catcher, either at tight end or slot receiver. They'll also need to either
re-sign DE Alex Okafor or
spend decent money on a replacement for him, among other priorities.
NEW YORK
GIANTS
The Giants have an exorbitant amount of needs and not a
tremendous amount of cap space. That should lead to a chunk of signings,
although not at the top of the market. Expect the Giants to concentrate on
their defense, from front to back.
OAKLAND
RAIDERS
With a lean toward aggressiveness, because if you know
anything about Coach Jon Gruden, you don't know what he's truly thinking. And
there is no resume for GM Mike Mayock. Still, the Raiders have nearly $74.5
million in cap space, per OverTheCap.com, and, as Mayock said, needs all over
the roster, so it's not like one splashy signing (Le'Veon Bell) will solve
everything. Or, as Gruden said at the combine, "Every veteran player comes
with a price tag. These contracts are very expensive, so you have to measure
the financial part of things as well as, 'Does he fit your scheme and fit your
operation?'"
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES
The Eagles have about $2 million in cap space right now, but
they'll free up some room between now and the start of the league year in order
to be modest players. Running back and a deep threat at receiver are among the
priorities.
SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS
The Niners figure to have around $70 million in cap space, which
would allow them to fall into the aggressive category should they so choose.
But general manager John Lynch and Coach Kyle Shanahan won't spend for the sake
of it. That means the approach will probably be similar to what it was in 2018
when San Francisco had a couple of primary targets (center Weston
Richburg and running back Jerick
McKinnon) it was willing to spend big on to land. This year could
feature a bit more star power in terms of the names, but the strategy will
likely feel familiar unless some top edge rushers unexpectedly avoid the
franchise tag, which could change the calculus.
SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS
Not since Cary Williams in 2015 have the Seahawks brought in
an outside free agent with a multiyear deal worth more than $5 million on
average. "Active, but not breaking the bank" has been general manager
John Schneider's M.O. since then. Yes, the Seahawks are projected to have more
than $50 million in 2019 cap space and can free up a few more million by
releasing Barkevious
Mingo and/or Jaron Brown.
But remember, a franchise tag for Frank Clark at
around $18 million would take up about a third of that, and the Seahawks have
other in-house free agents they'll try to re-sign like K.J. Wright, J.R. Sweezy, D.J. Fluker, Justin
Coleman and Mychal
Kendricks. Look for Schneider to again scour free agency for bargain
buys at linebacker, safety, wide receiver, backup quarterback and kicker.
TENNESSEE
TITANS
Armed with just over $40 million in cap space, expect the
Titans to sign impact players at the right price. They'll be active in the
second wave of free agency once the market is set with the flurry of moves,
especially at defensive end/outside linebacker. The safety position will be one
to watch with Kenny Vaccaro becoming
a free agent, Kevin Byard as
a prime candidate for a lucrative extension and Johnathan
Cyprien as a possible cap casualty. After hovering slightly
above .500 (9-7) the past two seasons, the team has to make the necessary moves
to ascend to the next level. But this year's free agent group lacks a player
that can single-handedly elevate the Titans to Super Bowl contender.
WASHINGTON
REDSKINS
They'll be kind of active because they have gaps to fill,
but it won't be about high-priced players and will mostly be about seeking a
few good bargains. That has been their M.O. under President Bruce Allen.
Washington does have around $17 million under the cap right now and will
release some players to free up more space. They will sign a veteran
quarterback, although it might be a low-cost one such as Josh Johnson.
They could sign an inexpensive veteran left guard and get more help at inside
linebacker. They could use help at safety. And the team won't find all its
answers in the draft. But the Redskins now are keen on adding compensatory
picks, so they will have to sign some bargain players but likely allow their
high-priced guys to leave (such as LB Preston Smith).
3. NOT AS ACTIVE
AS FANS MIGHT HOPE
ATLANTA
FALCONS
The Falcons, with about $24 million in cap space, seem
unlikely to be big players in free agency with the possibility of defensive
tackle Jarrett eating up $15.3 million in cap space under the franchise
tag. Now, the Falcons could reach an extension deal with Jarrett and
significantly lower that 2019 cap number, but that won't necessarily lead to a
spending spree. Signing Jarrett, however, could free up room for some activity
such as re-signing pass-rusher Bruce Irvin.
CAROLINA
PANTHERS
The Panthers have slightly more than $15 million in cap
space after re-signing safety Eric Reid,
so they won't be very active unless they clear more cap space. That would
happen if the team opts to move on from left tackle Matt Kalil.
The focus likely will be on finding a mid-range priced edge-rusher with the
retirement of end Julius Peppers or an offensive lineman who can play multiple
positions.
CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears rank near the bottom of the league in salary cap
space but managed to free up almost $6 million by releasing tight end Dion Sims
and $3 million by restructuring Kyle Long's
contract. Still, don't expect the Bears to be all that aggressive in free
agency after making their big move in September by trading for and
extending Khalil Mack (with
$11.3 million counting on the cap for 2019). But the Bears do have more
leverage this offseason, thanks to a 12-4 season, making Chicago a much more
attractive destination for free agents.
CINCINNATI
BENGALS
It's hard to say exactly how active the Bengals will be with
an entirely new coaching staff, but their general strategy in the past has been
to build through the draft. The Bengals did try to go after safety Kurt Coleman
last year, showing they might be budging a little on that. However, they have
several of their own players to re-sign, so their top focus will likely be
doing that rather than going after other free agents.
DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys' priority is to re-sign their own, like DeMarcus
Lawrence, Amari Cooper, Dak Prescott and
potentially Ezekiel
Elliott and Byron Jones,
which will chew up a lot of their cap space, time and effort. Executive vice
president Stephen Jones does not believe going big in free agency is a smart
play, but the Cowboys will look to make smart -- if not splashy -- signings.
But remember, the Cowboys made an offer to Sammy Watkins last year worth $16
million per year only to see him sign with the Kansas City Chiefs. If the
Cowboys see an opportunity, they will not be afraid to take it. Someone
like Thomas could be a potential target, provided the price is right.
MIAMI
DOLPHINS
The Dolphins have been transparent, noting their desire to
rebuild and avoid signing short-term fixes like they have in recent years. This
offseason will be spent getting their salary cap in order and likely
ridding themselves of high-priced veterans like
quarterback Ryan
Tannehill and defensive end Andre Branch rather
than adding them to the roster. Expect Miami to target the second-wave of free
agency to bolster the roster, but fans hopeful for a big-name splash signing
will likely be disappointed
MINNESOTA
VIKINGS
This is the safest prediction for a team that ranks in the
bottom five of available cap space. The Vikings knew they would be restricting
their capabilities in free agency for 2019 and 2020 when they signed
quarterback Kirk Cousins,
who accounts for 15.5 percent of the cap. If Minnesota wants to go after an
offensive lineman in free agency, franchise Anthony Barr, pay Sheldon
Richardson or even consider offering Adam Thielen a
new deal this offseason, it will have to get creative with how it goes about
moving money around. That means looking to restructure a handful of contracts
or releasing players who could free up a chunk of cap space (i.e. Everson
Griffen, Andrew
Sendejo, Mike Remmers).
The Vikings have to be financially choosy with the needs they address in free
agency. The rest will have to come in the draft
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS
General manager Kevin Colbert said last week not to expect
the Steelers to make a big splash in free agency -- that has never been their
philosophy. With almost $18 million in cap space ahead of the likely trade
of Antonio Brown,
the Steelers will look for affordable help on defense or receiver and have
several of their own free agents to focus on, including guard Ramon Foster and
linebacker Ryan Shazier,
who won't play in 2019 but is still expected to be signed. And then there is
the new deal the team is working on for quarterback Ben
Roethlisberger, who is entering the final year of his contract. This
doesn't add up to the Steelers being big players in free agency later this
month.
TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS
The Bucs currently have just $19 million in salary cap space
with an unsigned left tackle in Donovan Smith,
who will arguably be their biggest priority (keep in mind that they will need
$9 million for their rookie pool). It might also mean parting ways with Kwon Alexander and Adam
Humphries. They'll try to maneuver some cap space around, offering
players more guaranteed money upfront and making some cuts, but this isn't
looking like a blockbuster year unless they can move some money.
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