CHIEFS OVER BENGALS; SAINTS TOP RAVENS
The bye weeks are fully upon us, with even more teams off
this week than before...
... but that doesn't mean the NFL schedule doesn't carry
some sneaky-good games, especially on the intra-divisional front.
Start with Texans at
Jaguars, a divisional showdown in a division that is anyone's
ballgame right now. It's a three-way tie in the AFC South, with all the leaders
knotted up -- appropriately -- at 3-3. Whoever loses the Houston-Jacksonville
matchup will have two divisional losses, while Tennessee is 2-0 in the South.
The 49ers might
not be catching the Rams in
the NFC West, but don't forget how tough San Francisco played Los Angeles at
Levi's Stadium last year. (Who could forget that Thursday
night track meet?) Perhaps the biggest divisional bout takes place
near D.C., as the Cowboys
visit the rival Redskins one week after Dallas' eye-opening
beatdown of the Jags. Are these 'Boys for real? That game is for
first place (or at least a share of first place) in the NFC East.
As for the rest of the NFC East, the Eagles
host the Panthers while the reeling Giants try
to right the ship against the
Falcons on "Monday Night Football." You'll find picks
for those games -- and the rest of the Week 7 slate -- below. Your take on any
is welcome: garyl
Elliot Harrison went 12-3 on his predictions
for Week 6, bringing his record for the season to 60-31-2.
How will he fare in Week 7? His picks are below.
THURSDAY, OCT. 18
ARIZONA
CARDINALS 20, DENVER
BRONCOS 16
8:20 p.m. ET (FOX/NFL Network/Prime Video) | State Farm
Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
Royce Freeman ...
comes in, Royce Freeman ...
this is Earth ... can you hear us? If so, please report to the front desk to
pick up your run blocking and quick change of direction. The Broncos'
ground attack has been absent the last two games, and oh has it hurt Vance
Joseph's team. Denver should be able to pound the rock against
the Cardinals, who just made Latavius
Murray look like Terrell Davis. But if Case Keenum receives
no run support, Arizona will give him fits. Despite the Cardinals'
difficulty stopping the run, their defense is better than its billing (or lack
thereof). In fact, I like that group at home. Arizona picks up its second win,
unless the new No.
30 in orange goes off. Looking forward to: Josh Rosen versus
the Broncos'
secondary.
SUNDAY, OCT. 21
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS 26, TENNESSEE
TITANS 14
9:30 a.m. ET (CBS) | Wembley Stadium (London, England)
The Chargers built
a passing offense for the ages under Sid Gillman in the old AFL days, even
winning a championship with it in 1963. Don Coryell built on it, creating an
offensive system that still has tentacles in today's game. The Titans set
all that progress back 80 years against the Ravens last Sunday.
You can blame Marcus
Mariota's elbow or offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur's
"scheme." I think allowing five sacks in the first 17 plays might
have been a wee bit of a factor. These Bolts don't boast the same pass rush as
Baltimore, so that's bright news for Tennessee fans. Unfortunately, Philip Rivers will
take advantage of a tired Titans defense
that will grow weary of watching its offense punt at Wembley.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 21, HOUSTON TEXANS 13
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | TIAA Bank Field (Jacksonville, Fla.)
Kjjkjhmmnnmmm. Those are the buttons I hit on my
keyboard whilst attempting to write something -- anything --
glowing about the Jags' offense. Taking Jacksonville at home in what turns out
to be an uber-important matchup in the AFC South, if only because the Jaguars'
defense was
embarrassed in Dallas. Houston coach Bill O'Brien could plagiarize
the Cowboys'
game script, utilizing Deshaun
Watson's athletic ability a week after the Cowboys (finally)
called on Dak Prescott's.
The problem: Watson appears all sorts of banged up. He might be mummified by season's
end. Speaking of, did anyone see "The Mummy," the newer one, with Tom
Cruise? Is it worth two hours? Or is it at least better than watching Blake Bortles chuck
it around the yard? (@HarrisonNFL) The Jags must produce some semblance of
balance. On that note ... rooting for Jamaal
Charles.
PHILADELPHIA
EAGLES 27, CAROLINA
PANTHERS 20
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
Going with the Eagles at
home in what could be an impactful game come tiebreaker time in late December.
If the Panthers are
to avoid falling to an NFC East team for the second week in a row (it would be
a third, if not for Graham Gano's
quads), getting back to Norv Turner basics is the ticket. Namely,
Carolina must help Christian
McCaffrey create, especially in the running game. The beauty of
employing Cam Newton is
deploying the mammoth quarterback on the ground, including play fakes. It
forces the defense to play 11-on-11, unlike, say, Saquon
Barkley with Eli Manning.
Carolina only rushed for 81 yards against the
Redskins, while McCaffrey posted a lowly 20 yards on eight carries.
Keep (start?) pounding, Panthers.
Otherwise, the Eagles have
both the offensive (especially passing) and home-field advantage.
MINNESOTA
VIKINGS 27, NEW YORK JETS 16
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, N.J.)
How healthy are the Jets'
defensive backs? I ask only because Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are
not going to drop passes with the proficiency of the Colts last week.
Remember, Diggs' hands stick to
everything. Doubt Latavius
Murray will follow in the footsteps of Indy RB Marlon Mack,
who delivered a
perfect beach volleyball set to New York CB Morris
Claiborne for a quick-six. The litmus test in this contest for
Gang Green will be if Sam Darnold is
forced to try to keep pace with Kirk Cousins; that is, if the game flows toward
a flurry of points. When New York has won, it's been the result of mixing a
dash of Darnold with several cups of the running game. The Jets are
averaging two bills per game on the ground in their wins. Darnold is also
getting over 9 yards per throw in those three victories.
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS 26, CHICAGO BEARS 22
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Soldier Field (Chicago)
Love this matchup. You know the Bears are
Ditka-level pissed off over how Miami went down, a glacially-paced
disaster if there ever was one. (It was kind of like climate change, though
some folks choose to deny that. Not as easy to ignore NFL standings.) Chicago
will attempt to tee off on Tom Brady,
which is compelling because A) he will most certainly get the ball out quickly
in the early goings and b) the Patriots have
stunk on the road in two outings, getting manhandled in both
Jacksonville and Detroit.
The issue for Chicago is whether Mitch Trubisky and the offense can move the
ball early. Still waiting for that 125-yard Jordan Howard game.
Season high: 82 yards, Week 1.
INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS 23, BUFFALO BILLS 13
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
Bad news for fans of interceptions: The Bills are starting
Derek Anderson in place of Nathan
Peterman, a true master of the art who
introduced the across-the-body late throw over the middle to his repertoire
last week. There is still hope for some pick-related fireworks, however; Colts receivers
react like Andrew Luck is
delivering changeups ... or at least, their hands do. Still, look for Indy to
prevail. Luck's mobility and pocket awareness will be the key factor against a
frenetic Bills pass
rush. The Colts have
lost all but one of their games, yet they've been at their opponent's doorstep
in the fourth quarter every time out. The Bills simply
won't feature enough offense to do the same, even with the presumably steadier
hand of Anderson at the till. The 35-year-old hasn't posted a passer rating of
90 or better in a start since December of 2014.
TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS 28, CLEVELAND
BROWNS 17
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)
NFL uni matchups don't get much uglier than this.
Aesthetically speaking, only Jaguars at Panthers could
be much worse than this brown/crimson monstrosity. The quarterback play could
fare similarly, depending on which Baker
Mayfield and which Winston show up. Winston started
feeling it during that second half in Atlanta,
but he'll find this Browns defense
is much more talented than the depleted Falcons unit
he saw last week. Cleveland must do a better job supporting Mayfield. The
rookie has been sacked 10 times in the last two games, while Carlos Hyde couldn't
produce diddly poo on the ground. The Browns'
O-line play will be the great elixir -- or the nixer -- for
their chances in Tampa.
DETROIT LIONS 25, MIAMI
DOLPHINS 21
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
When Adam Gase starts
angrily citing HIPAA laws, you know things have gone south with his
quarterback. Gase's prospective task now is to keep winning with Brock
Osweiler under center. The Dolphins might
not be a strong team, but they are 4-2 and hanging with the Chargers and Ravens in the early wild-card race.
Detroit is trying to do the same in the NFC, but must steal this
interconference deal on the road. With three other potential playoff teams in
their division, the Lions can't
lose to a career backup. Their remaining schedule is
too unforgiving to drop this one in Miami. This matchup always reminds me of a
sweet Sunday nighter from the Mike Patrick ESPN days, when another backup
quarterback in Dave Krieg helped Detroit get hot late in the 1994 season,
winning five out of six games before stumbling to Dan Marino and the Fins in
Week 17.
NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS 24, BALTIMORE
RAVENS 20
4:05 p.m. ET (FOX) | M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
Fantastic matchup in Baltimore, with Drew Brees and
the Saints'
scary passing offense facing the most prolific pass rush in football. Perhaps
the coolest aspect of the Ravens'
sack palooza last week in Nashville was that 10 of the 11 sacks
came on blitzes. Only three other teams (Green Bay, Arizona and Dallas) have
compiled 10-plus sacks on blitzes all season. Marcus
Mariota drowned in the pocket before ever identifying where
those guys were coming from, or who dunked him. That level of confusion won't
be as easy to manufacture against Brees. Sean Payton definitely has his work
cut out for him, yet an oversimplified solution would be to use his running
backs -- particularly Alvin Kamara --
more than normal. Move those LBs out of the gaps and force them to play in
space. Establishing Mark Ingram on
the ground early will also force the pass rushers to hesitate.
DALLAS
COWBOYS 24, WASHINGTON
REDSKINS 21
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) | FedExField (Landover, Md.)
Perhaps the most compelling game of the week, if only to
discover what these teams are. Will we see Dak Prescott take
off more, forcing the Redskins to
adjust and shortchanging that Ryan Kerrigan-fueled pass rush? Can the Cowboys stifle
what has mostly been a lackluster Redskins offense?
Where is the Alex Smith from
2017? You know -- the guy who eschewed his career narrative by suddenly
throwing deep more successfully than any QB in the NFL. Last week, he failed to
average even 5 yards per throw. [Enter upside-down emoji here.] Unless Adrian
Peterson really softens up that Dallas front, the Cowboys'
defense rules the day.
LOS ANGELES
RAMS 46, SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS 36
4:25 p.m. ET (CBS) | Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
This series has a wonderful legacy ... The record for the
highest attendance ever for an NFL regular-season game (in the U.S.) was a
meeting in 1957 between these franchises (which I still think is legit ...
Giants-Cowboys in
2009 has the
"official" record, but they packed Jerry World with about
30,000 standing-room-only fans that day in a
Brett-Favre-sliding-into-Michael-Strahan's-feet-to-give-him-a-record kind of
way). How about John Taylor's
two 90-yard touchdowns on "Monday Night Football" in
1989? Then there was last year's
barnburner on Thursday night. Everyone with a football opinion
thinks the Rams will
win this week, but let's dive into some numbers pertaining to what the 49ers are
doing well: They are third in NFL in rushing at a whopping 142.5 yards per
game. Also, 16.2 percent of their runs are going for 10-plus yards. That is
high. In the passing game, C.J. Beathard's
receivers are getting a ton done on their own, with 891 yards after the catch
(seventh in NFL). Offensively, the Niners can stay with L.A. if they get off to
a fast start. Now that we've been glowing in appraisal, San Francisco will
lose. The Niners give up too many big plays, and guess who leads the league in
big plays? In fact, the Rams average almost 100 yards per game more than
the league mean. They're mean.
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS 36, CINCINNATI
BENGALS 28
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) | Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
All I can hear while typing this out is "Sunday night!"
in Carrie Underwood voice. Then Cris Collinsworth waxing poetic about it. Ugh.
Speaking of, not sure how many fans realize what a fantastic player Collinsworth
was. We're talking about a receiver with four 1,000-yard seasons -- and what
could have been two more, if not for a pair of strike-shortened campaigns. He
and Eddie Brown, along with running back James Brooks, were hell on wheels for
defenses. Kind of like what the Bengals boast
now, with the breakout of Tyler Boyd,
progression of Joe Mixon and,
of course, A.J. Green.
Can they score the requisite 30-plus points they'll need to potentially take a
road game from this potent Chiefs bunch?
While Cincy's defense is full of talented players, the unit's performance has
been a conundrum: The Bengal allowed 481 yards last Sunday and
are giving up 26.3 points per game. Good luck slowing down Kansas City's
rubber-armed QB.
MONDAY, OCT. 22
Atlanta
Falcons 27, New York
Giants 24
8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) | Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
"No offense ... versus no defense ... it's Monday
Night Football!" I have the 1983 edition of Giants at Falcons on
DVD in my vault. With Scott Brunner at quarterback (Phil Simms was always
injured in those days) and Butch Woolfolk at running back, Big Blue had big
problems on offense. Atlanta's offense was dynamic. Steve Bartkowski led the
NFL in passer rating that season, with two solid running backs at his disposal
in William Andrews and Gerald Riggs. Unfortunately, the Falcons couldn't
stop anyone that season. (Does ... any ... of ... this ... sound familiar?)
Usually, bad defense trumps bad offense, i.e., loses games. Looking at this
upcoming "Monday Night Football" affair, however, the mental state of
the Giants seems downtrodden (at best), resigned (at worst) -- at least
from the outside looking in. Dan Quinn's relentlessly positive outlook -- and
the Falcons being
at home -- delivers a win.
