PENGUINS CLOSE OUT HOMESTAND WITH SENATORS

OTTAWA AT PITTSBURGH

WHEN: 7:00 PM ET, Friday, February 1, 2019
WHERE: PPG PAINTS Arena, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

The Pittsburgh Penguins limped out of the All-Star break with a porous performance against a last-place team before recording arguably their best of the season against a club on the fast track toward the Presidents' Trophy. The Penguins hope to continue that momentum on Friday when they host the league-worst Ottawa Senators, who own two victories over Pittsburgh this season.

"After a normal loss I don't think we have a meeting, but after a loss that important (a 6-3 setback to New Jersey on Monday) against a team that's lower in the standings, we needed to answer and I think it was to make sure everybody was ready to go," defenseman Kris Letang said following Wednesday's 4-2 win over Tampa Bay. The 31-year-old Quebec native scored his 108th goal to tie Paul Coffey for the most by a defenseman in Penguins history and boosted his point total to eight (three goals, five assists) in his last five games. Although Letang converted on the power play to open the scoring in the first encounter with Ottawa, the Senators netted the next five goals en route to a 6-4 win on Nov. 17 and Ryan Dzingel tallied 1:20 into overtime of a 2-1 victory on Dec. 8. The 26-year-old Dzingel scored and set up a goal in Ottawa's last contest -- a 3-2 loss to Arizona on Jan. 22 -- to lift his point total to 13 (seven goals, six assists) in his last 11 games.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TSN5, RDS (Ottawa), AT&T SportsNet-Pittsburgh

ABOUT THE SENATORS (19-26-5): Mark Stone, who leads the team in goals (22) and points (50), scored twice in the first meeting with Pittsburgh before notching a pair of assists in the second while defenseman Thomas Chabot (team-high 29 assists) scored a goal and set up two others in the two contests. Matt Duchene, who collected two goals and an assist in the first encounter with the Penguins, has five of each over his last eight games to move within three of Stone for the team lead in points. Bobby Ryan has recorded a point in nine of his last 11 outings, although he was held off the scoresheet and recorded a minus-2 rating in the meeting with Pittsburgh.

ABOUT THE PENGUINS (27-17-6): Matt Murray, who turned aside 33 shots versus the Lightning, owns an 11-2-0 mark and has allowed two goals or fewer in nine of the 13 starts since returning from a lower-body injury that sidelined him for nine games. The two-time Stanley Cup-winning goaltender received an early hook after yielding three goals on 10 shots in the first period of the loss to Ottawa in November. Phil Kessel has three goals and an assist in his last four games overall and 34 points (15 goals, 19 assists) in 29 career home contests versus the Senators.

OVERTIME

1. Ottawa C Colin White, sidelined since Jan. 10 with what is believed to be a shoulder injury, is expected to return to the lineup for Friday's game versus Pittsburgh.

2. Penguins D Justin Schultz joined the team in Thursday's practice as he continues to work his way back from a significant lower leg injury sustained on Oct. 13.

3. The Senators' seven road wins this season are the second-fewest in the league (New Jersey, six).

PREDICTION: Penguins 5, Senators 2

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS ONCE AGAIN STEP UP IN BIG WAY

The Pittsburgh Penguins season continues to be a roller coaster ride, and that is exemplified in these first two games returning from the break.

For the Pittsburgh Penguins, they saw a great opportunity when they took the ice against the New Jersey Devils, an opportunity to build some much needed momentum in a three game home stand as they returned from the break. The Devils had other plans, and the Penguins ultimately fell by a final score of 6 to 3, a game that they needed to forget.

And while I could be wrong, I am pretty sure they did a great job of that, as the performance they displayed last night against the Lightning was one of the top this season. You could even argue it was their best showing since their victory over Washington in December that started the long win streak.

If you look at the stats, it is not necessarily the best of numbers, as the Penguins were beat in many categories, but at the end of the day they won the one that mattered. The Pens put up four goals in only 22 shots, and it backs what Coach Sullivan has been saying all season for Pittsburgh, in that it is not the quantity of opportunities, but the quality that counts.

We all know that Pittsburgh can play a high quality of hockey; we have seen it countless times this season. The only troubling thing is this continued inconsistency that the Pens tend to show. They have some time to straighten that out, as the playoffs are still a ways away, but it is something that they will need to do.

Overall, Pittsburgh is in good shape. When you have players like Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang on your team, how could you not? Ottawa is next for Pittsburgh, where the Pens will look to finish the homestand 2-1.

GRADING JIM RUTHERFORD’S DEADLINE TRADES

Can you tell the future by looking in the past? Probably not entirely, but it’s fun to go down memory lane and judge things so we’ll look at Jim Rutherford’s deadline (or close enough) type trades to see what trends and patterns have happened.

2018

GRADE: D-

In theory it was a home run move (then again, aren’t all ideas great at the time?) but this one deserves praise. The Penguins cleverly involved a third team in Vegas in the deal when cheap old Ottawa couldn’t/wouldn’t retain salary on Derick Brassard.

But, it just hasn’t worked out on the ice. The price paid; a 2018 first, a top but young goalie prospect, a fourth rounder and two possible playoff scratches in Ian Cole and Ryan Reaves was well worth the gamble. But Brassard has never meshed in Pittsburgh so it’s more of a dud for how it shook out.

2017

GRADE: C IN REALITY BUT AN A, IF ONLY BECAUSE IT TROLLED PHILLY

Rutherford was negotiating with the rival Flyers, who as always were outside the championship picture and looking to sell off veterans. Reportedly, Philly was trying to over-charge their rivals with a second or even first round pick. Pittsburgh balked and Philly had to trade Streit to Tampa for veteran Valtteri Filppula and a fourth round pick.

Tampa quickly recouped that pick by trading Streit to Pittsburgh.

Streit was pretty much out of gas and only played three playoff games with the Pens, but he did win the Stanley Cup which never would have happened if Philly didn’t trade him first to Tampa.

GRADE: B+

Eric Fehr was signed in 2015 to be in the mix for the Pens’ third line center job, but he wasn’t really a good fit (Nick Bonino worked out better). But Fehr still had a contract paying him $2.0 million through 2017-18. Rutherford squirms out of paying a lot for a fourth line player for only the cost of a fourth round pick. Expected value of a late fourth round pick: very low. Excellent move to clear space for the future.

GRADE: A

The Pens knew there was a chance Kris Letang might not be back from his neck injury and he wasn’t. But he wasn’t shut down when this trade was made, so it’s a good insurance policy. Ron Hainsey was a player Rutherford was very comfortable with (despite not having any NHL postseason experience) and ended up playing 20 minutes a night on the first pair and helped win a Stanley Cup. It wasn’t always pretty but it was a clutch depth add for a reasonable price and the results speak for themselves.

2016

GRADE: A+++

You dream of trades like this, pilfering a young defenseman who can skate like the wind and move the puck for basically a song and a dance. Schultz needed heavy sheltering and wasn’t all that good in 2016, but since then he’s really gotten a chance to develop into a solid NHL player all-around the ice.

2015

GRADE: B+

Ian Cole was a solid player in Pittsburgh even if he never really seemed to be trusted by Mike Sullivan. This trade worked out for both teams as Robert Bortuzzo has found a niche in St. Louis and Cole was a piece of two Stanley Cup winners. Can’t help but be pleased there.

GRADE: B-

The enigma of Simon Despres was a talented youngster who the organization had reservations really committing to playing more. And one who made mistakes. They swapped him out for a more reliable and better pro in Ben Lovejoy, but also a more uninspiring vet. It worked well as Lovejoy was a good system fit and helped to win the Cup in 2016, but for value and asset purposes it seems like Despres wasn’t maximized as a trade chip. Regardless, Despres probably isn’t helping the Pens to win any Cups, so this trade had some utility even if it’s not going to be on a career best list.

GRADE: D

Daniel Winnik was awful as a Penguin scoring just 2 goals in 26 games. But, this trade was salvaged being as the Pens got their second round pick in 2016 back from Toronto as part of the Phil Kessel trade (and used it to take Kaspar Bjorkqvist). So that worked out well. But this trade didn’t.

What do I see

• Lots of defense. Rutherford likes to add that extra depth piece around the deadline. That doesn’t really seem applicable this year being as the Pens are soon to have eight NHL defensemen, and he’s already done some tinkering in the last couple months adding Marcus Pettersson earlier in the season.
• Draft picks as currency. The Pens are mainly dealing future draft picks for NHL rental talent. The Brassard trade seems to be an exception to the rule but it was also necessary to clear salary to be able to fit Brass, even at a reduced rate.
• But no firsts for rentals. Pittsburgh has traded their first round picks every year since 2012, but they have never used it on a pure rental player, who is an impeding unrestricted free agent that summer.
• And really no big splashes. Again the Brassard trade is an outlier, but generally Rutherford us just adding for depth/supporting players (Winnik, Lovejoy, Cole, Hainsey types) rather than trying to bring in impact players at the deadline.

It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out in 2019. With Brassard, and 2019 draft picks we should see pretty much how Rutherford chooses to negotiate the deadline.

THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES NEED TO MAKE A SPLASH IN FREE AGENCY

Pitchers and catchers report to Bradenton for the Pittsburgh Pirates in less than two weeks. Despite the start of Spring Training being right around the corner, the team’s starting rotation still needs help.

As the 2019 season looms the Pittsburgh Pirates appeared primed to have one of the best starting rotations in the National Leagues. Jameson Taillon, Chris Archer, Trevor Williams, and Joe Musgrove gives the Bucs a top four that can stack up against just about any in the NL. That said the rotation still needs another piece.

As general manager Neal Huntington discussed at Pirate Fest last weekend, right now the plan is for Jordan Lyles to be the fifth starting pitcher. However, Lyles is better suited to pitch out of the bullpen and that is how the Pirates should be looking to use Lyles.

The Pirates need to address the final spot in their starting rotation. Nothing against Lyles, but he is not good enough as a starter if the Pirates want to compete for the postseason. The Bucs also have plenty of money left to spend as their current projected payroll is around $72 million. Due to the money they have left to spend, the Pirates need to make a splash in free agency by signing former American League Cy Young Award winner Dallas Keuchel.

Despite being the best starting pitcher on the free agent market this offseason, Keuchel remains unsigned as Spring Training looms. There are few teams that would benefit more from signing Keuchel than the Pirates. On top of making their starting rotation one of the absolute best in all of baseball, signing Keuchel would also bring the much maligned Pirate front office a lot of good PR while buying them some much needed goodwill with portions of the fan base.

In 1,189 1/3 career innings pitched, Keuchel owns a 3.66 ERA and a 3.72 FIP. The 2015 AL Cy Young winner has averaged a 3.2 fWAR the past six seasons with the Houston Astros, and has become one of the best left-handed starters in the game.

Keuchel’s pitching style is one that would fit what the Pirates look for as well. The Pirate value pitchers with strong control and groundball numbers. His lifetime 7.0% walk rate and 58.8% groundball rate both fit these molds. Also, PNC Park is a great pitcher’s park for left-handed hurlers.

As the offseason drags on and he remains unsigned, Keuchel is more likely to accept a one or two year contract with a team. This is something that would work for the Pirates. Signing Keuchel to a shorter contract would include less financial risk and commitment. Also, with top prospect Mitch Keller looming at Triple-A and the team’s other four starting pitchers all controlled through at least the 2021 season, the need to sign a top flight starting pitcher to a massive contract just isn’t there.

Signing a pitcher the caliber of Keuchel would undoubtedly be a boost to the Pirate clubhouse and clubhouse moral, too. When the team added Archer at the trade deadline last July Pirate players took to twitter to express their excitement. They did the same when meeting with the media in the coming days. Adding Keuchel would have a similar impact, and that can make a world of difference for any baseball team.

With a pitcher like Keuchel in the mix the Pirates become a legitimate playoff contender due to their starting rotation. This is one of the reasons why the team needs to target him in free agency between now and the start of Spring Training on February 13th.

LYLES HAS INSIDE TRACK AT PIRATES' ROTATION

The Brewers saw something in Jordan Lyles when they claimed him off waivers last August. Milwaukee general manager David Stearns pointed to the right-hander's increased velocity and modified pitch mix coming out of the bullpen. Not long after Lyles joined the Brewers' bullpen, he approached their analytics staff with a question.

Armed with data from Milwaukee's front office and a mentality that he developed early last season, Lyles transformed into the pitcher who caught Pittsburgh's attention this winter. He posted a 3.31 ERA with 22 strikeouts in only 16 1/3 innings of relief for the Brewers, and the Pirates think he's now set up for success in their starting rotation.

Lyle will go into Spring Training and try to win a job with the starting rotation. If Lyle doesn’t win a job then he ends up in the bullpen with no other options.

The Pirates created an opening in their rotation by trading right-hander Ivan Nova to the White Sox at the Winter Meetings. Not long after, word surfaced that they had agreed to sign Lyles to a one-year, $2.05 million contract.

At PiratesFest, general manager Neal Huntington described Lyles as "Plan A" for the last spot in Pittsburgh's rotation. Nick Kingham and Steven Brault are the Bucs' backup plans. "Plan D" would be to use an opener, Huntington said. Top prospect Mitch Keller could be ready to join the staff at some point this summer.

But for now, Lyles has the inside track.

Lyles K's Inciarte in the 4th00:19Aug. 10th, 2018

The 28-year-old has spent most of his career as a starter. Lyles came up through the Astros' system with an old-school mindset: Throw strikes. Put the ball on the ground. You have to turn over the lineup to pitch deep into games, so don't show your changeup the first time through.

In a sense, he was getting in his own way by being conservative and taking pitches off the table. That changed when Lyles broke camp last year in the Padres' bullpen.

The Brewers showed Lyles how opposing hitters were beating him, digging into the numbers and formulating a plan of attack. They encouraged Lyles to throw his best pitches more often, a philosophy that also benefited Pirates starter Jameson Taillon (among many others) last season.

The change in Lyles' pitch mix was noticeable last season. He threw his four-seam fastball 34 percent of the time last season, up from 29 percent in 2017, and his curveball usage increased from 20 percent to 29 percent. He threw more changeups and cut back on the number of sinkers and sliders he used.

Lyles wound up with a career-best 10.3 percent swinging-strike rate and a career-high 22.6 percent strikeout rate on the year. Overall, he put together a 4.11 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP with 84 strikeouts in 87 2/3 innings.

When the Pirates officially signed Lyles, Huntington released a statement that said Pittsburgh was looking forward to "helping Jordan continue to bridge the gap between potential and performance." There is no guarantee that Lyles will become an instant success in the rotation, but the Pirates believe in what he can be moving forward -- not just what he has been in the past.

"That's up to me. It's in my control," Lyles said. "If I do what I need to do, what I can do -- how we finished up last season, take that into Spring Training -- I think things will work out."