Will the Texans bring back Tyrann
Mathieu? Could Clay Matthews move
on from the Packers after 10 seasons? Which players could get the franchise
tag?
I evaluate the biggest looming free-agent decisions facing
all 32 teams. I start with the team I cover the Pittsburgh Steelers.
AFC NORTH
Running back Le'Veon Bell
Though the relationship between Bell and the Steelers
appears doomed, the team still faces a decision on Bell's future that will
shape their offseason. They can place the transition tag on Bell or let him
walk in free agency and recoup a mid-round compensatory pick in 2020. Either
way, the likelihood of Bell playing for the Steelers in 2019 is remote after
Bell just skipped an entire season. The team must decide whether to re-sign
guard Ramon Foster, tight end Jesse James and
linebacker Anthony Chickillo, but those calls won't be made until Bell's
future is mapped out.
Linebacker C.J. Mosley
It's surprising that the Ravens haven't reached a deal with
Mosley, who has reached the Pro Bowl in four of his five seasons and made the
season-saving interception in the regular-season finale. He's a core leader for
the NFL's No. 1 defense that could part ways with veterans Terrell Suggs and Eric Weddle.
If Baltimore fails to keep Mosley, it would go against the franchise's history.
Of the Ravens' 10 first-round picks who made the Pro Bowl, nine were re-signed
to a long-term deal. The only exception was guard Ben Grubbs
Tight end Tyler Eifert
Although Eifert's broken ankle this season was a freak
accident, it's yet another season that he wasn't able to stay on the field. The
Bengals signed him to a one-year deal with incentives for this very reason. The
Bengals have to decide whether to gamble on Eifert for another year or move on
in free agency or the draft. However, they do have several other needs and no
true No. 1 tight end on the roster to replace him, so moving on from Eifert
isn't the easiest decision.
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor
Taylor would be a good backup quarterback, but he said late
in the season that he would not make a decision until he met with his agent.
Taylor admitted he wants to play and might see what's on the market. If he
finds little, he does like Cleveland, and would be a good fit -- though he
won't make anything close to the $16 million he earned in 2018.
AFC EAST
Miller and right tackle Jordan Mills are
the only two full-time starters among the Bills' seven remaining unrestricted
free agents after they re-signed linebacker Lorenzo
Alexander. Miller, a 2015 third-round pick, has started since his
rookie season and finished tied for 26th in Pro Football Focus' grading of NFL
guards. However, the Bills could choose to part ways as they look to overhaul
their offensive line this offseason
Offensive tackle Ja'Wuan James
James wasn't optimistic that a long-term deal would get done
with the previous Dolphins staff in place, but with a new regime it will be
interesting to see whether the team values James as a piece to build around.
The Dolphins' offensive tackles, James and budding star Laremy Tunsil,
are one of their biggest strengths, and the two have a great relationship. Good
offensive linemen get paid handsomely on the free-agent market, and it's
possible that number could get too high for a Miami team not close to
contention. James isn't the perfect right tackle, but it will be difficult to
replace him with someone as good or better given their resources
Defensive end Trey Flowers
Flowers is a perfect fit for the Patriots' multiple scheme
because he can play a traditional role on the edge or move inside to play over
a guard or center -- and is equally as effective as a pass-rusher or defending
the run. The Patriots value that as much as any team, which is why Flowers
figures to be a top priority to retain, not to mention that he is a top
"program" guy in the locker room. Because Flowers isn't an elite
speed rusher, he might not command a top-of-the-market contract, but a
significant payday is coming his way.
The Jets locked up their No. 1 priority by re-signing wide
receiver Quincy Enunwa to
a four-year, $33 million extension. Anderson isn't a must-keep,
but he'd be a nice player to keep as part of their foundation. He recorded a
career-high seven sacks in his first season with the Jets, showing the ability
to play inside and outside. Anderson is only 27, just entering his prime.
AFC SOUTH
Safety Tyrann
Mathieu
In one season in Houston, Mathieu quickly elevated himself
to a team leader. He brought a veteran presence to the Texans' secondary and
served as a mentor for future star Justin Reid.
The ability to move Mathieu around enhances the defense against both the run
and the pass.
Kicker Adam
Vinatieri
The 46-year-old hasn't officially made up his mind on
whether he wants to play a 24th season, but he said he'll definitely listen to
the Colts if they approach him about re-signing. Vinatieri, the NFL's all-time
leading scorer, is still an effective kicker. He was 23-of-27 on field goals
and 44-of-47 on extra points this season. It would be surprising if the Colts
didn't try to re-sign him.
Kicker Josh Lambo
He's the only key player who will become a free agent with
whom the Jaguars should spend their time. Lambo has been fantastic since the
team signed him off the street in October 2017, making 38 of 41 field goal
attempts (including 6 of 7 from 50-plus) and 41 of 44 PATs. He was pretty much
the only player the Jaguars could count on in 2018 to score points until he
suffered a groin injury and missed the last three games, so he should be a
priority to bring back in 2019. The Jaguars have used the franchise tag on a
kicker before -- Josh Scobee in 2012 -- but don't expect that to be the case
with Lambo.
Safety Kenny Vaccaro
The Titans were 9-4 when Vaccaro was in the lineup and 0-3
when he wasn't. Vaccaro teamed with Kevin Byard to
give Tennessee one of the top safety tandems in the league. Although Johnathan
Cyprien is returning from a season-ending knee injury,
retaining Vaccaro is a move the Titans have to make. His physical play sets a
tone for the team every time he steps onto the field. The 27-year-old has taken
to social media frequently to express a desire to return to Tennessee and
enjoys playing for defensive coordinator Dean Pees.
AFC WEST
Center Matt Paradis
The Broncos have a number of soon-to-be unrestricted free
agents who might score higher on the glamour meter, such as cornerback Bradley Roby and
outside linebacker Shane Ray --
both former first-round picks who are not expected back. The 29-year-old
Paradis suffered a fractured lower leg and ligament damage in the Broncos' loss
to the Texans in November, but he had not missed a snap in his 56 career games
until that injury. The Broncos are looking at a makeover along the offensive
line, but Paradis should return to form. The Broncos haven't always broken out
the checkbook for a player returning from an injury, but if the doctors like where
Paradis is in his recovery, they should pay him. He has been one of the
league's best bargains for years.
Linebacker Dee Ford
The 27-year-old Ford had a career season with 13 sacks in a
contract year. The Chiefs can't afford to let Ford go as he heads into the
prime of his career. Look for the Chiefs to retain him whether on a long-term
contract or as the franchise player at a cost of about $15 million. Ford
recently said he wouldn't hold out if the Chiefs made him the franchise player,
saying the decision to sign the tender would be a "no-brainer."
Wide receiver Tyrell
Williams
Signed as an undrafted rookie out of Western Oregon in 2015,
Williams has been productive as a vertical threat for the Chargers, totaling
155 receptions for 2,530 yards and 17 total touchdowns in four seasons.
Williams has an impressive career average of 16.3 yards per catch. The Chargers
would like to have back the hard-working Williams, but they also have a
replacement on the roster in second-year pro Mike Williams.
With speedy receivers such as Sammy Watkins and Paul
Richardson receiving lucrative contracts on the free-agent
market last year, the price for Williams could get too steep for the
Chargers.
Running back Marshawn
Lynch
The late-season play of Doug Martin might
have made Oakland's favorite son expendable. Lynch, who went on injured reserve
on Oct. 22 and never returned, sure looked content to simply light the Al Davis
Torch in the home finale -- even if both players averaged 4.2 yards per carry,
with Martin scoring four touchdowns and Lynch three. Moving on from Lynch would
mean the Raiders probably have to re-sign Martin, who is also scheduled to be a
free agent. Undrafted rookie Chris Warren,
a big-bodied back who spent the season stashed on injured reserve would figure
to have a bigger role.
NFC EAST
Defensive end DeMarcus
Lawrence
The Cowboys can use the franchise tag for the second
straight year on their Pro Bowl defensive end, but they shouldn't let it get to
that point. Reaching a long-term deal is a must. Lawrence is the Cowboys' best
pass-rusher, the war daddy Jerry Jones has sought since DeMarcus Ware's
departure. Without Lawrence, the defense would lose a lot of its identity. It's
not just how he rushes the passer. It's how he affects the running game, too.
Without Lawrence, the Cowboys would have to find a pass-rusher in the draft,
and they don't have a first-round pick because of the Amari Cooper trade.
It will be costly, but the Cowboys have a history of keeping their own players
off the market with high-end deals.
Safety Landon
Collins
He just turned 25 years old and has made three Pro Bowls.
Think the Giants can afford to let him walk? Collins is a playmaker who led the
team in tackles this past season even after missing four games. The franchise
tag is in play here if the two sides can't come to an agreement on a long-term
deal.
The defensive hero of Super Bowl LII, Graham played through
a high ankle sprain last postseason and wasn't fully healthy for much of the
2018 campaign. He ended up with four sacks -- his lowest total since 2013 --
but the 30-year-old picked up steam as the season went on. He can be a force
both against the run and as a pass-rusher, and he has been a key figure in the
locker room over the past several seasons. Graham loves it in Philadelphia. If
the Eagles can get him at a discount, a deal could get done. But his best
chance at a bigger payday will be elsewhere.
Linebacker Preston Smith
Wide receiver Jamison
Crowder is right there with him -- and perhaps just a little
higher on the list of guys they'd like to re-sign. But Smith provides a bigger
conundrum: He recorded only four sacks this season, but he's also just 26 years
old, so he's just now entering his prime. It's hard to let young pass-rushers
leave. However, he'll also be expensive because of the position he plays and
the subsequent demand. It's hard to see the Redskins going too high for Smith;
if they switch to a 4-3 they can mitigate his loss, or they could draft someone
else if they stay in a 3-4. Smith did not make enough big plays for them to
automatically re-sign him, but it's a difficult position to fill.
NFC NORTH
The Bears re-upped with starting cornerbacks Kyle Fuller and Prince
Amukamara last offseason, but they appear content to let Amos
test free agency. A former fifth-round draft pick, Amos has carved out a nice
career, starting 56 regular-season games since 2015. Amos had 71 tackles and a
career-best two interceptions for the Bears' top-ranked defense in 2018. The
Bears likely want to keep Amos, but at their price.
Defensive end Romeo Okwara
This isn't a star-power move, but Okwara's contract
situation makes him the most intriguing after his 7.5-sack breakout season.
He's a restricted free agent, so the Lions can either tender him or hope no
team goes after him or they can give him a new contract on its own. After the
way general manager Bob Quinn spoke about Okwara during his season-ending news
conference, he seems like a player they want to keep around. The question will
be the cost. He's a tougher call than some of the bigger names heading toward
free agency (Ezekiel Ansah) and some of the cap decisions they'll have to
make (T.J. Lang, Glover Quin)
because of his youth and figuring out whether it was a one-season aberration or
the start of the growth of a key player.
Outside linebacker Clay Matthews
Look at the sack numbers -- 3.5 last season and just 16 over
the past three seasons -- and you'd probably think it's a no-brainer to move
on. But if Matthews agreed to move to inside linebacker, where he has been
effective before, then it might be worth bringing him back. The Packers have
plenty of holes to fill on defense and retaining Matthews -- at the right
price, of course -- could help.
Linebacker Anthony Barr
Because the Vikings chose not to extend Barr's contract last
offseason, the former ninth overall pick could soon be headed toward free
agency. Given the restrictions they face with the salary cap, the Vikings
aren't likely to make a ton of moves in the offseason, and the cost to keep
Barr (somewhere in the range of $11 million to $12 million) could mean
Minnesota prices itself out of that sweepstakes. Placing the franchise tag on
Barr is a possibility, but that, too, would be expensive. Barr's fifth season
was up and down, but he shined brightest when used to rush the passer (three
sacks, four QB hits, eight tackles for loss). With that in mind, Barr might
want to go play for a team that would allow him to be a 3-4 outside linebacker
tasked with pursuing the quarterback regularly. After all, Barr did say he feels
like he's better at going forward rather than going backward. He might have a
better chance of fulfilling that role on a different team.
NFC SOUTH
Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett
General manager Thomas Dimitroff said signing Jarrett to an
extension is the top priority, though those talks were put off during the
season. Jarrett could get as much as $17 million per year in a new deal. The
Falcons just have to find a way to be creative with it so they have enough cap
room for other priorities, such as taking care of wide receiver Julio Jones and
upgrading the offensive line. Franchising Jarrett could be an option, but that
seems unlikely based on the Falcons' history.
Safety Eric Reid
The decision to move on from 35-year-old outside
linebacker Thomas Davis was a big one but somewhat expected. Finding
a way to keep Reid, who at 27 has a lot of good football left in him, will be
key for a secondary looking to maintain stability with strong safety Mike Adams not
likely to be re-signed. The Panthers already have reached out to Reid's agent.
The question is will they be willing to give Reid the "fair market'' price
he wants when the organization hasn't spent a lot of money at safety in the
past?
I could have listed either Bridgewater or running back Mark Ingram,
but Bridgewater is a bigger financial decision because he should cost somewhere
between $10 million and $20 million per year. Still just 26 years old,
Bridgewater would be an ideal successor to Drew Brees,
who turned 40 on Tuesday. But the only realistic way for the Saints to keep
Bridgewater is if Brees were to announce he plans to retire in the next year or
two -- and there's no indication he plans to do that. More likely, Bridgewater
will leave for big money and an opportunity to start right away.
Linebacker Kwon
Alexander and offensive tackle Donovan Smith
Prior to Alexander suffering a torn ACL in Week 7, his
representatives wanted $12 million per year, and the Bucs weren't willing to go
above $10 million, sources familiar with the negotiations told ESPN. Now the
Bucs have a scheme change under defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Will Bowles
see Alexander as the "heart and soul of the defense" the way Dirk
Koetter did? Then there's Smith, who is still battling consistency issues but
has not missed a single game in four seasons, which is so rare at the left
tackle position.
NFC WEST
Defensive end Markus Golden
Yes, wide receiver Larry
Fitzgerald is a free agent, but the team won't decide whether
to re-sign him. He'll decide whether to return or retire. Golden, however,
might be the Cardinals' tell when it comes to the first pick in the draft. If
they re-sign him to a multiyear deal, it will be hard to believe Arizona will
draft a pass-rusher first overall, since he and Golden play the same position
and there are only two edges from which to rush. Golden was slow to return from
an ACL injury suffered early in 2017 and finished with 2.5 sacks in 11 games.
If the Cards believe Golden, who had 12.5 sacks in 2016, can return to form
next year with an entire offseason healthy, then they could re-sign him and
pass on Ohio State's Nick Bosa in the draft.
The Rams signed Suh to a one-year, $14 million contract last
year as he was considered a one-year rental. His numbers didn't jump off the
stat sheet, with 4.5 sacks in a run defense that ranked last in the NFL,
allowing an average of 5.1 yards per carry. Perhaps that means the Rams could
re-sign Suh at a discount, or that they'll look for a younger, less expensive
option.
Kicker Robbie Gould
The Niners don't have many incumbent starters set to hit
free agency, but Gould is an important piece in a league in which kickers have
become more and more unreliable. In two seasons in San Francisco, Gould missed
just three of his 75 field goal attempts for a league-best 96 percent
conversion rate. The 49ers want him back and Gould has said he'd like to return,
but terms must still be reached and Gould would be a hot commodity if the 49ers
don't sign or tag him and he hits the open market.
Defensive end Frank Clark
It's not a question of whether Clark will be back with the
Seahawks next season because there's no way they'd let a 25-year-old
pass-rusher with 33 sacks over the past three seasons leave in free agency.
It's a matter of whether they can agree to a multiyear deal or if Seattle will
have to place the franchise tag on him. Remember, his agent told ESPN in
October that Clark is willing to wait for the right deal, even if it means
playing on the tag first. That line of thinking makes it hard to imagine Clark
taking a deal this offseason that averages much less than the franchise number
for defensive ends, which is projected to be upward of $18 million for
2019.
