With the All-Star Week behind us, it's now only a hop, skip
and a jump from the trade deadline, which kicks off the homestretch of the
baseball season. By this point in the year, the Cinderella’s and premature
pumpkins are more or less determined. While there probably will be some upsets,
we know who the great teams are and who the lousy ones are with a lot more
certainty than we did in March.
That doesn't mean that teams can't still improve themselves,
so the week before the trade deadline is always a good opportunity to revisit
baseball's playoff odds, both for if teams stand pat and if teams are able to
add two wins to their team roster strength. The Dodgers already managed that
feat when they acquired Manny Machado in
last week's trade with the Orioles. Unfortunately for all of the other
contending teams, Machado was the easiest way to add two wins; with him off the
table, it probably will take some creativity and/or more than one transaction
to beat what the Dodgers just managed to do.
NATIONALS LEAGUE
NL CENTRAL
|
TEAM
|
RECORD
|
GB
|
PCT
|
DIV%
|
WC%
|
PLAYOFF%
|
ODDS +2
WINS
|
DIFF
|
|
CHICAGO CUBS
|
94-68
|
--
|
.580
|
75.5%
|
19.1%
|
94.6%
|
96.6%
|
2.0%
|
|
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
|
90-72
|
4
|
.556
|
22.7%
|
49.7%
|
72.4%
|
84.6%
|
12.2%
|
|
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
|
89-73
|
11
|
.512
|
1.5%
|
12.6%
|
14.1%
|
27.2%
|
13.1%
|
|
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
|
80-82
|
14
|
.494
|
0.2%
|
3.1%
|
3.3%
|
7.2%
|
3.9%
|
|
CINCINNATI REDS
|
72-90
|
22
|
.444
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Chicago hasn't made any significant trades yet, unless you
think a lot more of Jesse Chavez's
likely performance at Wrigley than I do. Milwaukee's losing streak has made an
addition more urgent, because now the Brewers are playing catch-up with a
weaker roster. Milwaukee already appeared to be a team willing to be aggressive
before it lost the NL Central league -- it did sign Cain this winter,
tried to sign Yu Darvish,
and attempted to trade for Quintana last season -- and I don't expect the
Brewers to be any less willing to make a splashy pickup now.
St. Louis gets a significant boost from a pickup, but the
trickiest thing for St. Louis is how to even add two wins. For example, the
gaping holes in an offense that has been weaker than recent teams is corner
outfield. But you're not exactly going to give up on Marcell Ozuna,
and Dexter Fowler is
around for a long time to come. The team's bullpen could use an extra arm, but
adding two wins in two months in a bullpen is significantly harder than you
might think.
NL EAST
|
TEAM
|
RECORD
|
GB
|
PCT
|
DIV%
|
WC%
|
PLAYOFF%
|
ODDS +2
WINS
|
DIFF
|
|
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
|
90-72
|
--
|
.556
|
53.5%
|
19.9%
|
73.4%
|
86.9%
|
13.5%
|
|
ATLANTA BRAVES
|
89-73
|
1
|
.549
|
41.9%
|
23.1%
|
64.9%
|
80.6%
|
15.7%
|
|
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
|
83-79
|
7
|
.512
|
4.6%
|
7.3%
|
11.9%
|
25.0%
|
13.2%
|
|
NEW YORK METS
|
71-91
|
19
|
.438
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
|
MIAMI MARLINS
|
68-94
|
22
|
.420
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
The fairly low playoff probability of the Nationals
illustrates the very real mess in which the team finds itself. There was good
reason to believe that Washington could hold off Atlanta and Philadelphia for
one last run at the division, but instead the Nationals are significant
underdogs as we near their last opportunity to make a big trade before Bryce Harper hits
free agency. Even with a major addition, the Nats still only
become a one-in-four team to make the playoffs in the projections, which makes
one wonder, if Washington goes 2-5 or something this week, do they actually
become sellers? And more interestingly, do they become sellers of
Harper?
Philadelphia and Atlanta find themselves on the flip side of
Washington, in the position of the dog that caught the car. What now? Do they
start trading off significant pieces for a short-term gain, even if the players
traded are important to each team's long-term outlook? I suspect that
Philadelphia and Atlanta will be reactive, a staredown to who cracks first and
makes a big move followed quickly by a similar trade by the other team.
NL WEST
|
TEAM
|
RECORD
|
GB
|
PCT
|
DIV%
|
WC%
|
PLAYOFF%
|
ODDS +2 WINS
|
DIFF
|
|
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
|
93-69
|
--
|
.574
|
80.4%
|
10.9%
|
91.2%
|
99.6%
|
8.4%
|
|
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
|
86-76
|
7
|
.531
|
9.5%
|
24.3%
|
33.8%
|
51.2%
|
17.4%
|
|
COLORADO ROCKIES
|
86-76
|
7
|
.531
|
8.3%
|
22.6%
|
30.9%
|
46.4%
|
15.6%
|
|
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
|
82-80
|
11
|
.506
|
1.8%
|
7.6%
|
9.4%
|
19.9%
|
10.5%
|
|
SAN DIEGO PADRES
|
67-95
|
26
|
.414
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
No team in baseball gets a larger projected boost in its
playoff chances than Arizona does. The Dodgers picking up Machado didn't just
help L.A. by making the team better that trade also hurt Arizona by depriving
it of the chance to acquire Machado, something the Diamondbacks were actively
trying to do. Machado would have provided an even larger boost to Arizona than
Los Angeles, the Diamondbacks' offense being weak with a team OPS+ of 82.
How bad is an OPS+ of 82? There are 430 teams that have made
the playoffs, going back to 1903. There are also 430 playoff teams that beat an
82 OPS+ at the plate, the current all-time low being the 83 OPS+ produced by
the Diamondbacks in 2007. If there's any team in baseball that needs to find a
way to acquire offense, it's Arizona. When Paul
Goldschmidt was slumping in May and the Diamondbacks lost A.J. Pollock,
the team scored fewer than three runs a game that month.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
AL EAST
|
TEAM
|
RECORD
|
GB
|
PCT
|
DIV%
|
WC%
|
PLAYOFF%
|
ODDS +2
WINS
|
DIFF
|
|
BOSTON RED SOX
|
106-56
|
--
|
.654
|
79.0%
|
21.0%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
0.0%
|
|
NEW YORK YANKEES
|
102-60
|
4
|
.630
|
21.0%
|
78.9%
|
99.9%
|
99.9%
|
0.0%
|
|
TAMPA BAY RAYS
|
79-83
|
27
|
.488
|
0.0%
|
0.5%
|
0.5%
|
2.2%
|
1.7%
|
|
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
|
76-86
|
30
|
.469
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
|
BALTIMORE ORIOLES
|
52-110
|
54
|
.321
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
The fate of the AL East is fairly clear: The Yankees and the
Red Sox will go to the playoffs, the Blue Jays and Orioles will not. The only
real uncertainty about the difference between playoffs and no playoffs is
whether the Rays can have a hot enough second half to sneak past both the
Mariners and the Athletics. In this case, it's probably a "no." A big
pickup by the Rays might move their probability from the 1-in-200 range to
1-in-45 or so, but given the franchise's default position of selling, the Rays
need to be a lot closer to make them buyers.
Not shown in the chart is that while the Red Sox and Yankees
have both amassed the roster strength and enough wins in the bank to almost
guarantee their playoff appearances (100.0 percent really is simply >99.95
percent), which one of them wins the division is very much up in the air.
That's quite important, of course, given MLB's playoff structure since 2012,
which adds a second wild card but makes each wild card half as valuable as
before. Previously, wild cards lost out only in home-field advantage, which is
a very small effect in baseball compared to other sports.
By adding two wins more than the Red Sox at the deadline,
the Yankees would see their divisional probability jump to 38 percent from 21
percent. If Boston adds two additional wins, its odds go up to 90 percent. The
difference between the two teams essentially comes down to the standings as the
ZiPS projections see the Yankees' roster as one win per 250 games better than
Boston's. Boston's five-game lead stands as the current separator.
AL CENTRAL
|
TEAM
|
RECORD
|
GB
|
PCT
|
DIV%
|
WC%
|
PLAYOFF%
|
ODDS +2 WINS
|
DIFF
|
|
CLEVELAND INDIANS
|
91-71
|
--
|
.562
|
99.4%
|
0.0%
|
99.4%
|
100.0%
|
0.6%
|
|
MINNESOTA TWINS
|
77-85
|
14
|
.475
|
0.6%
|
0.1%
|
0.7%
|
3.5%
|
2.8%
|
|
DETROIT TIGERS
|
68-94
|
23
|
.420
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
|
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
|
60-102
|
31
|
.370
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
|
KANSAS CITY ROYALS
|
54-108
|
37
|
.333
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
The rest of the division made it interesting for a while,
aided by the massive underperformance of the Cleveland bullpen, a malady the
Indians have addressed by adding Brad Hand and Adam Cimber to
the roster not just for this year, but for years to come (two additional for
Hand, five for Cimber). There remains a very slight chance in the projections
that everything comes together for the Twins, but it's very unlikely, no matter
what Minnesota does.
Cleveland doesn't have quite the same motivation to make
short-term additions as the Red Sox and Yankees do, as they don't have their
divisional standing in jeopardy anywhere to the degree of the AL East teams.
Hand-Cimber helps in the playoffs too, but without an in-season advantage, one
can see why Cleveland wanted players who would help in future years if the
Indians were going to give up their top prospect.
One additional thing to watch is Jose Ramirez's
quest for a significant record. At 6.9 WAR, he's already an MVP candidate even
if he retires tomorrow to become a competitive cupcake baker. With just over a
third of the year remaining, he has the chance to do a lot more than just a
run-of-the-mill MVP-caliber-season. ZiPS projects Ramirez to finish with a 10
WAR season (baseball-reference flavor).
Let's look at the previous 10-plus bWAR seasons by third
basemen in history: Al Rosen, 10.1. No, I didn't forget the rest of the list.
That is the full list of 10 WAR seasons by a third baseman in
baseball history. Ramirez has already entered the top 100 (he's at 90th through
Saturday) with a whole third of a year to go. And ZiPS projects him with a 47
percent chance to have the best season by a third baseman in history. Not
Indians history. Not AL history. Not modern history. All of it, all history,
ever. Ramirez even just passed a healthy Trout through Saturday's games,
which I'm not sure is even legal.
AL WEST
|
TEAM
|
RECORD
|
GB
|
PCT
|
DIV%
|
WC%
|
PLAYOFF%
|
ODDS +2 WINS
|
DIFF
|
|
HOUSTON ASTROS
|
103-59
|
--
|
.636
|
98.2%
|
1.8%
|
100.0%
|
100.0%
|
0.0%
|
|
SEATTLE MARINERS
|
92-70
|
11
|
.568
|
1.7%
|
76.6%
|
78.3%
|
87.9%
|
9.6%
|
|
OAKLAND A'S
|
87-75
|
16
|
.537
|
0.1%
|
20.6%
|
20.7%
|
32.0%
|
11.3%
|
|
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
|
80-82
|
23
|
.494
|
0.0%
|
0.6%
|
0.6%
|
2.6%
|
2.0%
|
|
TEXAS RANGERS
|
69-93
|
34
|
.426
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
0.0%
|
Six games doesn't sound like an insurmountable edge, but the
Astros have been underperforming their runs scored/runs allowed by a
significant margin, beaten only by the magnitude of Seattle's over performance,
currently at 10 games. At this point, it would be a major upset for Seattle to
make up those games, sort of like trying to catch up to Floyd Mayweather Jr. in
points late in a fight.
But what the Mariners can do with a two-win addition at the
deadline is to put away the A's and cement that second wild card. Unlike
Seattle, Oakland is actually outscoring its opposition, making that three-game
lead look a bit on the shaky side. One can see why Oakland is a deadline buyer
for the first time since 2014.
