BREAKOUT STARS, BIGGEST GAMES, PREDICTIONS
Baker Mayfield is gone but the Big 12 has plenty of star power but will
that result in one of the league’s teams making the College Football Playoff?
Long known for its offensive firepower–and lack of quality
defense–the Big 12 enters the 2018 season in a state of uncertainty.
The loss of several the league’s top passers means most of
the top teams have question marks at the sport’s most important position.
Oklahoma–again considered the favorite–enters the season
without Heisman trophy winner and no. 1 pick in the NFL draft Baker Mayfield.
The Sooners will try to replace Mayfield with Kyler Murray, a two-sport athlete
who was drafted with the 9th pick in the MLB draft by the Oakland Athletics and
has already decided to play baseball after his last year as a college football
player.
Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph, TCU’s Kenny Hill, and Texas
Tech’s Nic Shimonek have also moved on. Texas and Kansas State couldn’t settle
on one starting quarterback throughout the 2017 season, and that uncertainty
has continued into 2018. Iowa State brings back starter Kyle Kempt, but he
needs to make a sizable improvement to be considered as one of the conference’s
top passers.
The one premier starting quarterback returning to the league
was named the Big 12 preseason Offensive Player of the Year.
OFFENSIVE PLAYER
OF THE YEAR – WILL GRIER, QB, WEST VIRGINIA
With the rest of the conference’s top quarterbacks off to
the NFL, Grier decided to return to the college level as the Big 12’s top
passer. Grier threw for 3,490 yards in 2017, good for 20th in the nation,
despite missing two games and the large majority of a third.
Grier was extremely consistent running Dana Holgorsen
offense, throwing for at least 285 yards in all 10 games he finished. The
Mountaineers couldn’t overcome the loss of their leader, as they went 7-3 in
those 10 games but lost all three of their games without him.
Grier’s college career has seen its ups and downs. It began
at Florida in 2014, competing for the starting quarterback job. He redshirted
that year and was embroiled in another competition in 2015. A few games after
he cemented his place as the starter, he was suspended for one year by the NCAA
for using performance-enhancing drugs.
Grier then decided to transfer and announced the next Spring
West Virginia would be his next stop. He sat out the 2016 season as a transfer
and entered the 2017 season as the starter.
He enters the 2018 season on the Davey O’Brien Award
(nation’s best quarterback) watch list, and also among the top candidates for
the Heisman Trophy.
Also in consideration for the Big 12’s top offensive player
are Grier’s favorite target, West Virginia wide receiver David Sills V, and
running backs Justice Hill from Oklahoma State, Rodney Anderson from Oklahoma,
and David Montgomery from Iowa State, who Pro Football Focus ranks as the third-best player returning to college football.
DEFENSIVE PLAYER
OF THE YEAR-BEN BANOGU, DL, TCU
In a conference known for its offense, the best defense in
the Big 12 belongs to the TCU Horned Frogs. In 2017, TCU had the conference’s
top two performers in sacks in Mat Boesen (11.5 sacks) and Banogu (8.5). While
Boesen is now chasing down quarterbacks for the Buffalo Bills, Banogu returns
to try to lead TCU to the top of the Big 12.
Also a transfer, Banogu started his college career at
Louisiana-Monroe. After posting three sacks, 10.5 tackles for loss, two forced
fumbles and a fumble recovery during his freshman season in 2015, Banogu wanted
to find a bigger college program to ply his trade. He found TCU, and sat out
the 2016 season for transferring.
Teaming with Boesen, Banogu terrorized opposing offenses
last year. He added 16.5 tackles for loss to go with his 8.5 sacks, earning
first-team all-conference honors.
Also among the Big-12’s top defenders are Kansas defensive
lineman Daniel Wise, Texas Tech linebacker Dakota Allen, and Iowa State cornerback
Brian Peavy.
FRESHMAN OF THE
YEAR-BRENDAN RADLEY-HILES, CB, OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma’s defense was up and down in 2017, eventually
costing the team a spot in the national title game by giving up four
second-half touchdowns against Georgia in the national semifinal.
They hope to get help in 2018 from Big-12 preseason Newcomer
of the Year Brendan Radley-Hiles. The 5’10”, 183-pound defensive back graduated
from IMG Academy in Bradenton, Florida as a five-star recruit.
Radley-Hiles, known as “Bookie”, played cornerback in high
school, but may see time at safety for the Sooners.
Defensive backs coach Kerry Cooks was impressed by Bookie
early on, according to the Norman Transcript, “Bookie is a very
calm player, very smart football player,” Cooks said. “His personality, his
knowledge of the game, coupled with his athleticism makes you feel more
comfortable with putting a true freshman out on the field.”
“You can see his confidence, his ability to see the
field,” Defensive coordinator Mike Stoops added.
“He’s a natural playmaker. The game comes pretty natural to him. He just has a
unique feel on the field.”
Still, moving from the high school level to a Power 5
conference is not a small task. “There’s still a lot of learning. He’d the
first one to tell you that,” Stoops continued. “He’s done a great job in the
film room and studies hard. Conceptually, he picks things up well, but just
understanding field space, you want to be reactive, you don’t want to think
when they game is being played. That’s the only thing he’s really missing right
now, his body memorization of how these plays go, what you see and how you see
it.”
The Sooners will need to rely on their defense more in 2018
with the transition to a new quarterback on offense.
BREAKOUT STAR TO
WATCH-KYLER MURRAY, QB, OKLAHOMA
Oklahoma hopes Murray is the breakout player in the Big 12.
He certainly has big enough shoes to fill. Mayfield threw for 12,292 yards and
119 touchdowns as the three-year starter for the Sooners.
Murray has an elite pedigree, as he was a five-star recruit
out of Allen, Texas in 2015. He started his career at Texas A&M in
2015, sharing time at quarterback with Kyle Allen. As an Aggie, Murray
completed 72-of-121 passes for 686 yards, with a 5-7 touchdown-to-interception
ratio.
Serving as Mayfield’s backup, Murray made three appearances
for Oklahoma in 2017. Two in blowout wins and one when Mayfield served a
partial-game suspension. He completed 18-of-21 passes for 359 yards and three
touchdowns.
Murray is a dual-threat quarterback. He has run the ball 67
times in his college career for 477 yards, and an average of 7.1 yards per
carry. As mentioned above, Murray doubles as an outfielder for the Oklahoma
baseball team, and will pursue a professional career on the diamond instead of
the gridiron after this season.
Oklahoma has plenty of help to offer Murray as he takes over
under center. Five Sooners were named to the preseason All-Big 12 team on the
offensive side of the ball. Running back Rodney Anderson, as mentioned above,
is a candidate for Offensive Player of the Year. He and offensive lineman Ben
Powers were named All-Big 12 Second-Team in 2017.
Wide receiver Marquise Brown, tight end Grant Calcaterra and
offensive lineman Bobby Evans were also on the team and were honorable mention
All-Big 12 in 2017.
COACH OF THE
YEAR-LINCOLN RILEY, OKLAHOMA
2018 is the year Oklahoma could be surpassed as the Big 12’s
top team. TCU’s Gary Patterson, Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy or Texas’ Tom
Herman could claim this honor if their teams make a run this year.
But at this point, none of them deserve this award more than
Riley. When Bob Stoops decided to retire last June, Riley had never been a head
coach before and promptly took his team to the playoff and coached Baker
Mayfield to the Heisman Trophy.
Riley’s Sooners put up 48 points in the double overtime loss
to Georgia, just falling short of a trip to the national title game and enter
this season with unfinished business.
Now, Riley will try to repeat that success with a new
quarterback. The soon-to-be 35-year old will turn his offense over to Murray.
Stoops built up a program that remains the Big 12 favorite, despite the
turnover on offense. It will be up to Riley to keep the ship sailing.
GAME OF THE YEAR –
OKLAHOMA AT TCU
The conference’s top two teams meet October 20 at Amon G.
Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas. The Sooners won both matchups against the
Horned Frogs in 2017, first 38-20 in the regular season matchup in Norman, then
41-17 in the Big 12 Championship game.
Both teams will have extra rest going into the game. TCU
plays on Thursday against Texas Tech the week before. Oklahoma will be
coming off a bye week after the Red River Shootout against Texas Oct. 6.
Banogu will lead what should be the best defense in the
conference against what Riley hopes is the best offense in the conference. The
game could be decided by what TCU’s offense can do against Oklahoma’s defense.
Shawn Robinson has been named the Horned Frogs starter after
Kenny Hill graduated. He will lead an offense that features explosive
playmakers Darius Anderson, Jalen Reagor and KaVontae Turpin.
Leading the Sooners defense will be linebacker Kenneth
Murray, cornerback Parnell Motley and defensive end Kenneth Mann. If they can
hold the TCU offense to 20 points or less as they did in both 2017 meetings,
Oklahoma will likely come out on top.
This meeting could once again be only a preview of the
conference championship game.
PREDICTED ORDER OF
FINISH
The conference is deep, as eight or nine of its 10 teams
should be competitive (sorry Kansas). They play a full round robin schedule, so
there should be plenty of good matchups throughout the season.
Oklahoma is still the favorite, but they are vulnerable with
their losses on offense.
TCU leads a second tier with four teams that could steal the
conference crown. Texas, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia are the other contenders.
Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech won’t be pushovers.
They will likely land in the six to eight win range.
Baylor is a wild card, getting to a bowl game is a likely
attainable goal.
Kansas gonna Kansas.
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BIG
12CONFERENCE STANDINGS
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CHAMPION:
OKLAHOMA
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OVERALL
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COFERENCE
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OKLAHOMA
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W 11 L 1
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W 8 L 1
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TCU
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W 9 L 3
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W 7 L 2
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WEST VIRGINIA
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W 9 L 3
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W 6 L 3
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OKLAHOMA STATE
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W 8 L 4
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W 5 L 4
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KANSAS STATE
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W 7 L 5
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W 5 L 4
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TEXAS
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W 7 L 5
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W 4 L 5
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TEXAS TECH
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W 7 L 5
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W 3 L 6
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BAYLOR
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W 5 L 7
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W 2 L 7
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KANSAS
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W 2 L 10
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W 0 L 9
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CONFERENCE CHAMPION – OKLAHOMA SOONERS
It might be more likely that Oklahoma doesn’t win the
conference in 2018. But there’s not another single team that should have better
odds. As much as it may seem like they’ve dominated this preview, 2018 could be
the year they are overtaken in the Big 12.
Murray is a bit of an unknown at quarterback, and his story
is unique as he prepares for a professional baseball career after this season.
While it might be impossible for anyone to fill Baker Mayfield’s shoes, he is a
former five-star recruit with starting experience. The offense could still be
the conference’s most talented, and could be the best with Riley at the
controls.
Ideally, the defense would be more consistent while Murray
gets his footing. Last year, they allowed 12.3 points per game over their first
three games against UTEP, Ohio State and Tulane. Then they allowed 36.2 over
their first six games of conference play. In their last four games before their
loss to Georgia, they were solid again, limiting TCU, Kansas, West Virginia
(without Grier) and TCU again to 17.8 points per game.
