Tuesday, November 20, 2018

WHY ALL NFL 32 TEAMS SHOULD BE THANKFUL


It's that time of the year again to count your blessings, and NFL teams should be doing it, too.
1. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-1)
Thankful for: Drew Brees and Sean Payton are better than ever in Year 13 together. Brees has been doing some amazing things for a long time, but nothing compares to the insane season he is having at age 39 (25 TD passes, one interception and a 76.9 completion percentage). Meanwhile, Payton is still coming up with creative new wrinkles on a weekly basis for an offense that is averaging 48 points per game over the past three weeks.
2. LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-1)
Thankful for: Owner Stan Kroenke. Not only did Kroenke commit to building the team's new stadium in Inglewood, set to open in 2020, but he committed to big pay days for several players, including defending NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, with a six-year, $135 million extension, and defending NFL Offensive Player of the Year Todd Gurley, with a four-year extension worth up to $60 million. Kroenke's willingness to cut checks ensures that the Rams will have the opportunity to be a dominant team for seasons to come.
3. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (9-2)
Thankful for: A home-grown quarterback. For most of their first 58 seasons, the Chiefs went almost exclusively with another team's discard at the game's most important position. They finally committed to making it work with one of their own and they were rewarded with Patrick Mahomes. Even though he's in his first season as the starter, Mahomes looks like he's going to be one of the best for many years to come.
4. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (7-2-1)
Thankful for: Le'Veon Bell. So what if the Steelers got sick of answering Bell questions? His absence has galvanized the team on the way to a 7-2-1 record. Heck, they shouldn't have cleaned out his locker. They should have left his stuff there as a reminder that this wild season is working. The Steelers might miss Bell late in the year, but clearly they wanted to show they can win without him.
Thankful for: Bill Belichick and Tom Brady for a 19th straight season. Around this time in 2017, some questioned how much longer the duo would be together because of tension, with speculation swirling that perhaps 2018 wasn't even a guarantee. But that would be like breaking up turkey and stuffing -- it just wouldn't seem right.
6. CHICAGO BEARS (7-3)
Thankful for: Hiring head coach Matt Nagy. Bears fans grew completely detached from the team when John Fox was in charge. Nagy is the complete opposite of Fox. He's young, energetic, engaging and offensive-minded; exactly what the Bears needed to escape the doldrums of the NFC North. The Bears won 14 total games from 2015-17. Nagy already has the Bears at seven wins with six games left to go in his first season at the helm.
Thankful for: Anthony Lynn. The no-nonsense head coach for the Chargers started his tenure 0-4 in 2017, but since then the Chargers are 16-6. This season, Lynn has the Chargers at 7-3 and on the verge of making the playoffs for the first time since 2013. Lynn has dealt with the relocation of his franchise to Los Angeles, playing in a temporary home where opposing fans take over the stadium and the organization cycling through six kickers. Through all that, Lynn has been a steadying influence, holding players accountable for their performance on the field.
8. HOUSTON TEXANS (7-3)
Thankful for: Colts coach Frank Reich going for it on fourth down in overtime in Week 4. Instead of what would have likely been a tie game had Indianapolis just punted, the Texans' defense made a big stop to get the ball back in Colts territory and the Texans won on a field goal as time expired. That win was the first of seven in a row and had the teams tied, Houston would only have a one-game lead over Indy in the AFC South with one matchup left this season.
9. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (5-4-1)
Thankful for: The receiving duo of Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Minnesota's offense runs through Thielen and Diggs, who act as interchangeable chess pieces in John DeFilippo's system and allow Kirk Cousinsto orchestrate a consistent passing attack. Thielen became the first Vikings player with consecutive 1,000 yard receiving seasons since Randy Moss, and by the end of the 2018 season the Vikings could boast two 1,000-yard receivers (Diggs has 713). It would be the first time the franchise has achieved such a feat since Moss and Cris Carter each surpassed 1,000 yards receiving in 2000
10. CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-4)
Thankful for: Home games. The Panthers have been dreadful on the road, going 1-4 with their only win a miraculous comeback from a 17-0 fourth-quarter deficit against the Philadelphia Eagles. They are 5-0 at home, a big reason they are in playoff contention. They have won 10 straight at home. With three of their final six games at Bank of America Stadium, if they can remain perfect at home and steal a win or two on the road they should be playoff-bound
11. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (5-5)
Thankful for: New offensive line coach Mike Solari. The shoddy offensive line play that eventually got Tom Cable fired is no longer an issue for the Seahawks. That group is better across the board under Solari even if the sack numbers don't show it. The Seahawks are averaging a league-best 154 rushing yards per game and, in a testament to the job Solari has done instilling a new blocking scheme, Seattle rushed for 273 in a recent loss to the Rams despite missing top tailback Chris Carson and starting right guard D.J. Fluker.
12. GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-5-1)
Thankful for: That their brutal road stretch is almost over. They came out of their bye week with four out of five on the road. They have only one left -- at Minnesota on Sunday night. They haven't won on the road this season, losing all five. The past three have been particularly gut-wrenching: at the Rams, where Aaron Rodgers never got the chance for a game-winning drive because of a fumbled kickoff; at the Patriots, where they were tied 17-17 and going down to score when Aaron Jones fumbled; and at Seattle last Thursday night
13. BALTIMORE RAVENS (5-5)
Thankful for: Controlling their playoff fate. Before Sunday, the Ravens had not won a game in 31 days, dropping three straight and watching their season spiral out of control. After beating Cincinnati, Baltimore owns the No. 6 and final playoff spot in the AFC. The stakes are high for the Ravens. If Baltimore doesn't end a three-year postseason drought, this could be the final season for coach John Harbaugh.
14. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-4)
Thankful for: That no one else signed Adrian Peterson before Aug. 20. That enabled the Redskins to grab him once injuries piled up at running back, starting with expected starter Derrius Guice. Many wondered what Peterson had left; now you have to wonder where the Redskins would be without him. Peterson has rushed for 723 yards and six touchdowns. He has given the Redskins enough offense for them to have a one-game lead in the NFC East after 10 games. He has helped not just on the field, but with his attitude and demeanor in meeting rooms and in the locker room.
15. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-5)
Thankful for: Josh McDaniels' change of heart. He verbally agreed to be the team's head coach before leaving owner Jim Irsay and GM Chris Ballard at the altar when it was time to sign his contract. McDaniels' decision to remain in New England is the best thing to happen to the Colts outside of Andrew Luck's return and their solid offensive line play -- it allowed Indianapolis to get a coach, in Frank Reich, who has formed the perfect pairing with Luck. The Colts may not make the playoffs this season, but this franchise is finally headed in the right direction again, and Reich has played a significant factor in that.
16. DALLAS COWBOYS (5-5)
Thankful for: The presence of Amari Cooper. He has been a Cowboy for only three games, but he has changed how the offense operates. He gives Dak Prescott a receiver who can win on the outside with his route running, creating separation for easier throws. He gives Ezekiel Elliott more room to run, as evidenced by his back-to-back 100-yard games. As defenses begin to adjust to him the more he plays, it will be incumbent on the coaches to find creative ways to get him the ball. Next April, the Cowboys might be wishing they had that first-round pick they gave up to the Oakland Raiders to get him, but right now Cooper is helping them make a playoff push
17. TENNESSEE TITANS (5-5)
Thankful for: Having four of their final six games at Nissan Stadium. After beating the Patriots at home, Tennessee has a 10-3 record at Nissan Stadium dating back to last season. In Week 10, the offense took a step back and struggled like it did during the team's three-game skid earlier this season. They are clearly a better team at home but have to find a way to win on the road, starting with their clash with the Texans on Monday Night Football next week.
18. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (4-6)
Thankful for: A Super Bowl in the bank. There's no such thing as a grace period in Philly -- the city is piping hot following a 48-7 shellacking in New Orleans that dropped the Eagles to 4-6 -- but fans can break-glass-in-case-of-emergency to coddle their shiny new Lombardi Trophy. Upper management can find perspective there, too, which is good news for a coaching staff that might otherwise be in trouble given the maddening breakdowns in the operation
19. CINCINNATI BENGALS (5-5)
Thankful for: A.J. Green. The Bengals realized how much they missed him when they didn't have him to go to on a crucial fourth-down play against the Ravens last week. But after missing two games, things look on track for Green to potentially make a return this week. If Green can come back against the Browns, things certainly look brighter for the Bengals than they did a week ago.
20. ATLANTA FALCONS (4-6)
Thankful for: Matt Ryan's health. The 33-year-old, one-time MVP hasn't missed a game since the 2009 season -- his second year in the league -- when turf toe sidelined him for two contests. Ryan has averaged 965 offensive snaps per season in his career.
21. MIAMI DOLPHINS (5-5)
Thankful for: A below-average AFC East. The Dolphins are stuck in mediocrity once again, but they are still in the thick of the playoff race thanks to having two division opponents -- Jets and Bills -- to get fat on. The Dolphins have swept the Jets already and they can pick up another pair of wins against the Bills in December if they play decent ball down the stretch. Despite mounting injuries and Brock Osweiler at QB, Miami still has a chance to make the playoffs. They should be thankful for playing the AFC East bottom dwellers Jets and Bills (a combined 6-14 record) twice a year.
22. DENVER BRONCOS(4-6)
Thankful for: Their rookie class. The Broncos' Class of '18 could serve as a benchmark moving forward and one of the most productive players in it -- running back Phillip Lindsay -- wasn't even drafted. But Lindsay, Bradley ChubbCourtland SuttonRoyce Freeman and Josey Jewellhave all started games this season. After the 2017 draft class had limited impact, the Broncos needed more from this year's incoming rookies and they have certainly delivered. Lindsay is in the running for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award while Chubb is already on the short list to be considered for the Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Thankful for: Owner Shad Khan's failed bid to purchase Wembley Stadium. That has -- for the moment, anyway -- dulled the talk of the franchise relocating to London. That means there won't be continuous rumors and "sources" speculating that the Jaguars would be headed overseas at any moment throughout the offseason. Now the franchise can concentrate on finding a quarterback and revamping an offense that went out of style in the 1970s.
24. DETROIT LIONS (4-6)
Thankful for: Kerryon Johnson and Kenny Golladay. Johnson might miss Thursday's Thanksgiving game with a knee injury, but he has been the explosive player Detroit has been looking for in the backfield since Barry Sanders retired. Meanwhile, Golladay is becoming the team's top receiver with the size/speed/strength threat Detroit last had with Calvin Johnson (although at this point there's no comparing the two). Between Johnson and Golladay, the Lions have two young skill position players who could be the centerpieces of the offense over the next half-decade or more.
25. CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-6-1)
Thankful for: A fervently loyal and devoted fan base. The Browns have not had a winning season since 2007. They've lost at least 10 games in nine of the past 10 seasons. Yet through change and nonsense and a "Perfect Season Parade" (to mark last season's 0-16 record) and the news that a former national security advisor may interview to be the team's coach, the fans keep showing interest and showing up. They're like the clown toy with the weighted base: Every time they're hit, they bounce right back for more. -- 
26. NEW YORK GIANTS (3-7)
Thankful for: Saquon Barkley. Every time the rookie running back touches the ball it seems he makes at least one defender miss and has a chance to "take it to the crib," as his buddy Odell Beckham Jr. likes to say. Barkley is must-see TV and his 361 yards after first contact is fourth in the NFL.
Thankful for: Talented pass-catchers. Despite being 3-7 with a revolving door at quarterback and a defense that is approaching "historically bad," the Bucs have arguably the best group of receiving targets in the league with Mike EvansDeSean JacksonChris GodwinO.J. Howard and Cameron Brate. When the offense doesn't turn it over, they're a pretty tough group to stop.
28. BUFFALO BILLS (3-7)
Thankful for: A projected $83 million in salary-cap space in 2019. When GM Brandon Beane was hired after the 2017 draft, he told ownership it would take about two seasons to clean up the team's salary-cap situation. That goal -- along with unforeseen events such as Eric Wood's retirement and self-inflicted wounds such as an August trade for Corey Coleman -- has led to Buffalo having a league-high $58 million in dead money against their salary cap this season. The Bills can use their 2019 spending power, second only to the Jets at $89 million, to improve their offensive line and skill positions.
29. NEW YORK JETS (3-7)
Thankful for: A young quarterback with promise -- Sam Darnold. For the first time in five years (since the Mark Sanchez era), the Jets won't go into the offseason desperate to find a starter in free agency or the draft. That is a tremendous relief. They believe they have their guy in Darnold. Now the trick is developing him and surrounding him with better pieces.
30. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-8)
Thankful for: Blossoming young offensive talent. The Niners have had their share of disappointments among defenders failing to take the next step forward this year, but they are building a solid foundation on offense. George Kittlelooks like a top tight end in the league, Matt Breida is the next hidden Shanahan-coached running back gem and RT Mike McGlinchey is already one of the game's best run blocking tackles. Even undrafted QB Nick Mullens is showing signs of developing into a solid backup. The 49ers would like more from receivers such as Dante Pettis, but if nothing else is to be gained from this season, there are some talented youngsters who should be even more prepared to contribute in 2019 when quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo steps back on the field.
31. OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-8)
Thankful for: A second victory in 10 wild, injury-filled, star-crossed games. While the Raiders' 23-21 victory over the Cardinals on Sunday improved Oakland's record to 2-8, it also decreased the Raiders' chances at "winning" the No. 1 overall draft pick. And that would go a long way in helping the team's reconstruction project. With a loss, the Raiders would have had a 73 percent chance of landing the top pick, per ESPN's Football Power Index. By beating Arizona, those chances dropped to 22 percent. Still, victory is the ultimate deodorant and things were rank in Oakland. Until the Raiders made a Thanksgiving turkey out of the Cardinals.
32. ARIZONA CARDINALS (2-8)
Thankful for: David Johnson. There'll be a lot of coal in the Cardinals' stocking this holiday season after a 2-8 start, but their one bright spot -- like star on top of the tree bright -- is their star running back, especially during the past few games under the direction of interim offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich. Johnson has been progressively better in each of the three games since Leftwich took over. On Sunday, he had 137 rushing yards. That came a week after he had 183 yards from scrimmage. Johnson is playing as close to his 2016 All-Pro level as he has all season, and that's thanks largely to Leftwich. -- Josh Weinfuss

MY NFL DEBRIEF FOR WEEK 11

OFFENSIVE REVOLUTION PEAKS IN RAMS-CHIEFS
The offensive revolution televised throughout this wild 2018 season reached its apex Monday night on a dewy Los Angeles night, showing any late arrivals to the party how much the NFL has changed. The Rams' 54-51 win over the Chiefs was our State of the Union.
This was the type of night the league could only dream of when enacting rule change after rule change favoring the offense. Andy Reid and Sean McVay continued to blend of college concepts with NFL talent, throwing away so many crusty coaching cliches like establishing the run in an ultra-aggressive display of passing bravado.
It's not that defense has no place in this new world order. Anyone complaining about the lack of defense Monday night must have missed the eight sacks, seven punts, seven turnovers and three defensive scores. There were monster games by Rams defensive tackle Aaron DonaldChiefs defensive end Justin Houston and Rams surprise star linebacker Samson Ebukam, who scored more touchdowns than Todd Gurley and Kareem Hunt combined.
Expectations for what good defense looks like in this new era, however, should be adjusted. The few cranks moaning about how football used to be ignore that football has always been about evolution and adjustment, that the highest scoring game in NFL history is still a 72-41 rout of the Giants by the Redskins in 1966.
The Rams' narrow victory qualifies as the league's third-highest scoring game ever, a mark that may not stand for long if NFL owners overseeing defensive-minded squads espousing field position and time of possession start looking more intelligently for the next Sean McVay and Andy Reid. In the meantime, I'm going to enjoy this season with Patrick MahomesDrew Brees and Jared Goff leading the way because the sport's metamorphosis is enlivening, because there's no telling where it goes from here.
JARED GOFF IS INCREDIBLE AT SHAKING OFF HIS BAD PLAYS: There were moments Monday night, despite the final score, that the Rams offense appeared shook. Sean McVay had burned all three timeouts with 4:56 still left in the game. Four of the Ramssix possessions in the fourth quarter (not counting their kneel down) gained a total of 16 yards, including three punts and a fumble. The Chiefs' pass rush actually did a good job disrupting Goff's rhythm by hitting him seven times and sacking him five times overall, leading to two fumbles and a handful of uncharacteristic misses.
Yet when the Rams got the ball with 2:47 left and no timeouts, touchdown or bust, Goff delivered with no trouble, like it was the first quarter of some preseason game, if Goff bothered to play the preseason. Goff's 40-yard game-winner to Gerald Everett was a beauty, but I was even more impressed by Goff delivering a third-and-9 strike earlier in the drive just one snap after Goff nearly threw the game away on a pass to Orlando Scandrick. Still just 24 years old, Goff appears to have the short memory of a shutdown cornerback.
SEAN MCVAY WAS GOING TO GO DOWN SWINGING: McVay has occasionally taken his foot off the gas pedal this season, running on some third-and-long plays with a big lead. That's partly why I liked McVay's decision to throw the ball three straight times on the Rams' final possession before punting. McVay knew that one first down won the game so he tried to get that first down the same way he called plays the whole night. He's going to live or die with his passing game. One of the passes fell incomplete, saving the Chiefs a timeout and causing Twitter outrage that Gurley wasn't involved, but running the ball there would have been accepting a punt. Speaking of which...
IN THE NEW NFL, THE RUNNING GAME IS A COMPLEMENTARY PIECE: It's possible for both of the following things to be true: Todd Gurley is an exceptional player and Todd Gurley is not an MVP candidate. Monday night's game highlighted how the passing game is used to set up the run in the Rams and Chiefs offenses, not the other way around. Since neither team could establish control of the game for long, the running games weren't used much.
The Chiefs ran the ball with Kareem Hunt 14 times on 69 offensive plays. The Rams ran with Gurley on 12 plays out of 75. It felt like the Rams were doing the Chiefs a favor anytime they ran the ball Monday night, no matter how excellent Gurley is.
THE CHIEFS HAVE ENOUGH DEFENSIVE PLAYMAKERS: This may be a hard lesson for Chiefs fans to swallow after giving up 54 points, but the Kansas City defensive front had more playmakers than their opposition Monday night. The same will be true most weeks. With Houston back in top form -- he made a number of plays against Rams stalwart tackle Andrew Whitworth -- the Chiefs have an incredibly disruptive trio upfront in Houston, Chris Jones and Dee Ford.
In this new NFL, the Chiefs don't need to hold their opponents under 25. They just need to make a handful of game-changing plays and they did so Monday night. Forcing two turnovers and four punts against the Rams should be enough to win. The numbers and final score got skewed because both defenses scored and the Chiefs offense turned the ball over five times, leading to 15 Rams possessions.
PATRICK MAHOMES IS THE NEW NFL PERSONIFIED: Mahomes would like to have a few throws back from Monday's game and he needs to work on his ball security, but he was still the most electric player on a field full of them. Mahomes showed off his entire skillset, from his incredible touch and body control to his ability to see the field to his strike to Tyreek Hill that traveled 60 yards in the air. It's scary to think how much better Mahomes can get after only 12 starts because he's already one of the most dynamic quarterbacks the league has ever seen.
THE RACE FOR HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE IN BOTH CONFERENCES JUST GOT MORE COMPLICATED: Saints fans should be disappointed in Monday's result. New Orleans has one loss like the Rams, but the Saints have a trickier schedule down the stretch with three games left against winning teams, including the Steelers and two games against the Panthers. The Rams only face one team with a winning record the rest of the way, a Sunday night trip to Chicago.
New Orleans has the tiebreaker over the Rams, but Monday's win gives the Rams a fair shot at home-field advantage. It's worth noting that players were slipping like crazy in the Los Angeles evening dew at the Coliseum, just like they were during the Rams' playoff loss to the Falcons last season.
In the AFC, Kansas City's loss provides a lot more hope for the SteelersPatriotsChargers and even Texans that they can pass the Chiefs in the standings. Those five teams are only one game apart in the loss column. This result, in short, adds a lot more intrigue to the rest of the season in both conferences, especially the AFC matchups including Steelers-Chargers, Steelers-Patriots and Chiefs-Chargers.
MVP WATCH
1. DREW BREES, QB, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: I thought Brees' performance against the Eagles was his best of the season and lesser football minds like NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah agree.
2. PATRICK MAHOMES, QB, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS: Mahomes' performance Monday night may weirdly hurt his chances in the MVP race just because of the ending. It's not fair, but no one said trying to take down Drew Brees in an MVP race during Brees' best season would be easy.
3. AARON DONALD, DT, LOS ANGELES RAMS: Two strip sacks on the biggest stage imaginable should practically lock up the Defensive Player of the Year award.
4. JARED GOFF, QB, LOS ANGELES RAMS: I'm not sure how a No. 1 overall pick quarterback of a 10-1 team is underrated, but it sure feels like Goff is underrated.
5. MICHAEL THOMAS, WR, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS: 82 catches on 91 targets is one of the most staggering stats I've ever seen, especially if you watch the types of catches Thomas makes on a weekly basis.
THINGS WE KNOW AFTER WEEK 11
LAMAR JACKSON IS LIKE NO ONE EVER WE'VE SEEN: I don't know if the Ravens can run Jackson 27 times again, but watching them try this approach at quarterback has immediately become one of my favorite storylines of the 2018 season. In a copycat league, it's refreshing to see an offense this different, highlighting such a unique skill set.
Most of the discussion after the Ravens' win over the Bengals, including some crusty comments from Marvin Lewis, centered on power instead of amazement about what he and his teammates accomplished. In an NFL where third-and-1 has stupidly turned into a passing down, the Ravens repeatedly turned third-and-5 into a running down with their quarterback. It worked.
Jackson's burst is breathtaking and the offensive line was clearly having a great time. Watching Jackson's college tape, I thought he should be the best running quarterback to enter the league since Michael Vick and Sunday's game only supported that notion. It's worth noting that Jackson also averaged 7.9 yards per attempt throwing the ball, making key conversions on a second-and-17, and two third-and-long strikes on the team's go-ahead scoring drive.
The wide receiver crew must buy in to this approach. Michael Crabtree and John Brown combined for only two catches, while Willie Snead blew up at the coaching staff after a few called red-zone runs. But those are problems for Ravens staffers and fans to worry about. As a non-invested observer, I am fascinated to watch what Jackson does against an inviting slate of upcoming defenses, starting with the Raiders in Week 12. Everyone except Joe Flacco should just enjoy this ride.
THE FALCONS ARE WASTING A VINTAGE YEAR FROM MATT RYAN AND JULIO JONES: Atlanta's latest heartbreaking loss at home was a reminder that football isn't all about the quarterback. Ryan played one of his best games in one of his best seasons and gave the Falcons a decisive edge over the Cowboys at the position, but Dallas' line play on both sides of the ball carried the day. Ryan and Julio have been forced to overcome a poor offensive line, poorer crunch-time defense and a one-dimensional attack that doesn't trust the running game in crucial situations.
In a typical Cowboys game that limited possessions -- the Falcons had eight -- the difference was rookie Calvin Ridley's drop that turned into an interception. It's been that kind of year for Ryan, who has seen his defense give up a last-minute score to blow three different games this year. It seems doubly cruel for all these games to happen in front of the tortured Atlanta faithful, who have to worry about a Thanksgiving trip to New Orleans and a potential Saints return visit to Atlanta for the Super Bowl.
THE SAINTS DON'T NEED BRANDON MARSHALL: Kicking the tires on Dez Bryant was worth a shot, but it's harder to see where Marshall fits on this Saints offense. Sunday's explosion by rookie Tre'Quan Smith, who made some contested catches reminiscent of Marques Colston, continues a growing trend of supporting Saints players getting into the mix. Fellow rookie Keith Kirkwood, a Drew Brees favorite, has five catches for 78 yards over the last two weeks. Tight end Dan Arnold has combined for four catches and 50 yards in that span.
Seeing Marshall finally make an appearance on a playoff team would be a great story to cap an underrated career, but I'm not entirely convinced he'll still be around to be on the Saints' active playoff roster.
THE VIKINGS' OFFENSE IS WORSE THAN IT WAS A YEAR AGO: Minnesota had the fifth-most efficient offense in the NFL last season, according to Football Outsiders; they were 14th this season before Sunday night's no-show in Chicago. I'd argue that Kirk Cousins has given them superior quarterback play to what Case Keenum provided last year, but nearly everything else about the Vikings' offense has taken a nosedive: offensive line play, the running game and play-calling.
Mike Zimmer's formula only works if he has a truly elite defense and that side of the ball has also taken a step back this season. Next Sunday night's matchup between the Vikings and Packers involves two teams still searching to find their way and running out of time to do so.
THINGS WE DON'T KNOW AFTER WEEK 11
ALEX SMITH'S FUTURE: I can't remember another No. 1 overall pick who felt like such an underdog, but that's what Smith became after the ugly start to his career in San Francisco. It took all of one nasty rookie season for most analysts and fans to give up on him. He trudged through five more years in San Francisco after that until Jim Harbaugh arrived, surviving a devastating shoulder surgery that forced him to miss 2008 and struggle to keep his job over guys like Trent Dilfer, Troy Smith and Shaun Hill.
This is not an obituary for Smith's career, but it's hard not to feel for him after the gruesome leg injury he suffered against the Texans. The Redskins owe Smith $15 million guaranteed next season, but his contract could force an unfortunate early decision on his future. Smith's 2020 salary is guaranteed if he's on the roster on the fifth day of the league year in March, so Washington may have to make a long-term decision about his future while he's still early in his recovery process.
In the meantime, the team will try to make the playoffs under Colt McCoy, with newly signed Mark Sanchez backing him up. Jay Gruden has kept McCoy on the roster five straight seasons for a moment like this and there's every reason to believe McCoy will handle it fine. He looked sharp and decisive after replacing Smith on Sunday. It's the rest of the Redskins' offense -- from the banged-up offensive line to the ramshackle wideout group -- that's a bigger concern. (Although I still wouldn't count out the Redskins in a deeply flawed division.)
IF THE BEARS REALLY HAVE THE NFL'S BEST DEFENSE: Smarter football writers than myself say that the Bears have the best defense in the league and by a wide margin. Some analytics like DVOA have them at No. 1, as well. The larger question is whether the "best defense in the NFL" is a moniker any team should want because basically every "best defense in the NFL" has been exposed shortly after getting the tag over the last two years. (Remember the "No. 1 scoring defense" in Tennessee before it was gashed on Sunday?)
The Bears have faced one of the easiest slates of opposing offenses and that won't change in the next two weeks against the Lions and Giants. Chicago's group was only solid, not spectacular, when facing a top offense like the Patriots'. This group, from Akiem Hicks and Khalil Mack to an underrated group of linebackers to Eddie Jackson's excellent work at safety, has playmakers at every level. But I'm eager to see how the Bears' defense handles the Rams in Week 14 because that's the type of offense-first team Chicago will have to deal with in order to win a Super Bowl this year. The great offenses this season feel historic. The top defenses, like Chicago's, remain a few steps behind.
IF JASON GARRETT'S CAUTION WILL COST THE COWBOYSA PLAYOFF SPOT: The Cowboys looked a little too happy to play for overtime in Atlanta before Falcons Coach Dan Quinn saved the Cowboys some time by using a timeout with 1:38 left and then rushed three defenders on a third-and-5 from the Dallas 30-yard line that Dak Prescott expertly converted. Garrett also looked a little too happy to play for a field goal in the final seconds from over 40 yards out with a kicker who was struggling.
Brett Maher's game-winning kick barely made it through the uprights, so no one is questioning Garrett's process, which looks awfully similar to the way the Cowboys have lost close games throughout the last nine seasons.
IF THE TEXANS HAVE ENOUGH OFFENSE: The Texans have won seven straight games without the benefit of an improving offense. The team's 320 yards and one offensive touchdown Sunday in Washington was typical. This is a squad that has been opportunistic turning turnovers into points, but not consistent moving the ball. The team's run-blocking is undoubtedly better than its ability to protect Deshaun Watson.
Getting rookie slot receiver Keke Coutee back in the mix was big against the Redskins after he had missed the previous two games with a hamstring injury, but trade acquisition Demaryius Thomas didn't have a catch and was only targeted once. The Texans have faced only two teams that currently have a winning record (New England and Washington) and won't face another one this season, so they can certainly keep winning. But Bill O'Brien certainly wants to see growth from his offense and it hasn't really happened for a team that has won two games in overtime and two others after opponents missed a potential game-winning kick.