I LOOK BACK AT MY NHL POWER RANKINGS

LOOKING BACK AT EASTERN CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS

Approaching the 30 game mark of the 2018-19 NHL season, various teams have surpassed expectations, while others have disappointed. This week’s NHL Power Rankings takes a look at the Eastern Conference.

Making predictions is always hard to do. Some teams exceed expectations. Other teams fall far short. This makes preseason NHL power rankings virtually useless after just one month. Thus far, the Eastern Conference has been a terrific example of this.

Entering Tuesday, Dec. 4, 14 of the 16 teams have a point percentage of at least .500. Only the New Jersey Devils and the Philadelphia Flyers aren’t picking up at least a point per game, on average.

But other than those two teams, the Metropolitan Division is about as brutally close as expected. No team has really pulled away as an overwhelming favorite. The fifth-place Carolina Hurricanes are merely five points away from the first-place Washington Capitals. Plus, honestly, would it surprise anyone if the Pittsburgh Penguins went on a huge roll? They’ve done it before in recent seasons.

Meanwhile, the Atlantic Division has been equally close. Though, that’s a bit of a surprise. Everyone assumed the top three would be, in some order, the Boston Bruins, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Toronto Maple Leafs.

However, the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens are crashing everyone’s party. Meanwhile, the Florida Panthers, who everyone thought would be competitive, are currently the worst team in the division.

We’ll take a look at the Western Conference later. But for now, let’s look at my own Eastern Conference predictions from back in September and compare them to now.

ATLANTIC DIVISION

PREDICTIONS:

1. Bruins
2. Lightning
3. Maple Leafs
4. Panthers (WC)
5. Canadiens
6. Red Wings
7. Sabres
8. Senators

REALITY:

1. Lightning (Up 1)
2. Maple Leafs (Up 1)
3. Sabres (Up 4)
4. Bruins (Down 3) (WC)
5. Canadiens (Same) (WC)
6. Red Wings (Same)
7. Senators (Up 1)
8. Panthers (Down 4)

Change Sum: 14

So, the Atlantic Division is probably rather silly-looking compared to my predictions. In my defense, no one saw the Buffalo Sabres coming. They were set to improve, sure, but not like this.

BRUINS

To start off with, the Bruins have been a bit of a disappointment so far. Tuukka Rask was struggling earlier on, so Jaroslav Halak has taken the opportunity to time travel back to 2010.

Apart from his fantastic, Vezina-calliber goaltending, the Bruins haven’t been all that notable. Following the injuries of Charlie McAvoy, Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, Urho Vaakanainen and even Kevan Miller, the Bruins’ scoring has taken a plunge.

Although they still have Pastrnak, Marchand and Krejci at their disposal, their offense looks surprisingly bad, even without Bergeron. If they’re going to get back on track as my Stanley Cup champion pick, they have a lot to do. These struggles have allowed the Lightning, Leafs and of course, the Sabres to take control of the division.

PANTHERS

The Panthers have almost switched fates with the Sabres. They came pretty close to a playoff appearance last season, and it looked like they’d have a decent change this time around.

Instead, Roberto Luongo can’t stay off the IR, and James Reimer isn’t a starter. This means that the Panthers have some of the worst goaltending in the league. Although their scoring has been decent, the absence of Vincent Trocheck is going to hurt. Until their goaltending improves, the Panthers may be stuck in the basement of the division for a while.

CANADIENS

Some were expecting apocalypse for the Montreal Canadiens, but they’ve been a bit of a surprise. If Carey Price decides to step it up, they might be able to squeak into a playoff spot.

SENATORS

The Ottawa Senators have just been boring. They were supposed to be the joke of the league, but they’re kinda yawn-ish. Maybe it’s a relief to Sens fans, but they’ve disappointed everyone else by not being the 1974-75 Washington Capitals.

MAPLE LEAFS

To quote the late Dennis Green, the Maple Leafs are who we thought they were – a great team. Thus far, they’ve been an elite team even without William Nylander. Now that the Leafs have him signed, they should be even more lethal.

LIGHTNING

Everyone projected them to be a juggernaut. Despite injuries to some key players, they are a juggernaut. No surprise here.

METROPOLITAN DIVISION

PREDICTIONS:

1. Hurricanes
2. Penguins
3. Blue Jackets
4. Flyers (WC)
5. Capitals
6. Devils
7. Islanders
8. Rangers

REALITY:

1. Capitals (Up 4)
2. Blue Jackets (Up 1)
3. Islanders (Up 4)
4. Hurricanes (Down 3)
5. Rangers (Up 3)
6. Penguins (Down 4)
7. Flyers (Down 3)
8. Devils (Down 2)

Change Sum: 24

HURRICANES

The Metropolitan Division has apparently decided to take control of its own destiny, outside the world of petty statistics. If you’re wondering about the Hurricanes, it looked a lot like their misfortune was unsustainable.

Their CF% is the best in the league, they take the most shots and they allow the fewest shots. This usually guarantees a good team. In the Hurricanes’ case, unfortunately, they couldn’t seem to buy save and their shooting percentage is terrible… which is usually a sign of back luck.

While they’ve maintained their shooting stats and CF%, their shooting percentage and bad goaltending has stuck along too. Scott Darling was waived and Curtis McElhinney now appears to be their starter. He’s doing great so far, but you’ve gotta wonder how sustainable that really is. But with the Hurricanes, who knows?

CAPITALS

Now, about those Capitals. Their Corsi is terrible! They consistently get out-possessed, game after game after game. They just don’t get enough shots off. Braden Holtby is fine and their backup goaltending has been surprisingly competent. Their shooting percentage is also likely unsustainable. They’re at the top of the division for now, but I don’t see it lasting.

It’s great that they got their Cup last season, but their old, rusting window, however much it squeaked in the process, has closed. They are no longer legitimate contenders with their current offense.

ISLANDERS

The Islanders probably have more reason to celebrate, but to celebrate with caution. Their offense is an absolute mess. Bailey, Barzal and Lee are their only separations from an AHL level, really.

The truth is most of their scoring corps was built around John Tavares. Their lack of a plan come his departure has been put on full display. So what’s the good news? Well, the defense is meh-ish. More importantly, though, Thomas Greiss has also decided to drink from the fountain of youth.

With his .926 save percentage, maybe the Islanders have a shot. A playoff appearance would be a surprise, but Greiss may be the one to bring them there.

RANGERS

The Rangers were quite low on the list, as you can see. They haven’t been great, obviously, but it could be worse. Both their offense and defense are still under-average. The injury situation doesn’t help that.

Yet, Henrik Lundqvist looks fantastic so far. They don’t have a legit backup, which is concerning, but Georgiev will never get to play if Lundqvist has his way, seemingly. They’re not good per se, but they’re in a slightly more stable situation than the other New York team.

PENGUINS

And the Penguins. What about the Penguins? They’re just being the early-season Penguins we all know and love. Their scoring has been average, but everyone knows the ol’ gang can keep them in contention. As long as they’ve got that and a suddenly fantastic Casey DeSmith, they’ll be fine. Or maybe this is the year. Who knows?

FLYERS

The Flyers fell from their projected Wild Card, but they’re not nearly as bad as some make them out to be. Sure, the offense isn’t great, but Calvin Pickard has made them out to be a lot worse. They have an extremely underrated defensive group and still a shot at the playoffs.

DEVILS

Lastly, come the New Jersey Devils. Although it didn’t look like they would fare this badly, it was kind of obvious they had some luck last season. Their CF% was in the basement, and their scoring, defense and goaltending were average at best. They just happened to make the playoffs, really.

This time around, they have run into some bad luck instead. They’re getting a good amount of shots off and their defense has been decent. Their CF% has improved a bit too.

However, Keith Kinkaid has been worrisome and Cory Schneider is looking unplayable. They also have a lot of work to do.

BLUE JACKETS

As expected, they’re looking extremely good. But it’s not about what they do in the regular season. Especially since this might be the Blue Jackets best chance to win a Stanley Cup for a while.