I LOOK BACK AT MY NHL SEASON POWER RANKINGS

LOOKING BACK AT WESTERN CONFERENCE PREDICTIONS

Approaching the 30 game mark of the 2018-19 NHL season, various teams have surpassed expectations, while others have disappointed. This week’s NHL Power Rankings takes a look at the Eastern Conference.

With Eastern Conference teams making a fool of all early season predictions, the West is a bit easier to deal with. Still, hockey is naturally an unpredictable sport, especially for NHL power rankings.

Although the East has its fair share of insanity, there still is a sort of fluidity to early predictions. In the Central, for example, perceived powerhouses like the Nashville Predators and Winnipeg Jets are holding their ground.

Yet, the Colorado Avalanche have managed to wedge themselves in between, while the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild are in reach. Even in the Pacific Division, arguably the least exciting in the NHL, the separation between the 1st and 5th team is only 6 points.

As this season slowly reaches the 30 game mark, it’s interesting to see how teams have fared compared to original predictions. Equally interesting are teams who some think are seeing a revival.

Take the Avalanche, for example. At the end of the season, maybe they end up out of the playoffs. Looking back on everyone’s reactions to their previous success can be amusing.

Anyways, now that a good portion of season has been played, it’s time to take a look at each team’s success compared to my previous predictions.

CENTRAL DIVISION

PREDICTIONS:

1. Jets
2. Predators
3. Stars
4. Blues (WC)
5. Blackhawks
6. Avalanche
7. Wild

REALITY:

1. Predators (Up 1)
2. Avalanche (Up 4)
3. Jets (Down 1)
4. Stars (Down 1) (WC)
5. Wild (Up 2) (WC)
6. Blackhawks (Down 1)
7. Blues (Down 3)

Change sum: 13

PREDATORS

The Predators may have the edge now, but the Central Division is far from won. The Jets, who still seem to be the better overall team, and maybe now the Avalanche, are going to be battling them all season.

In addition, they have some of the worst injury luck in the league. Their top three point scorers from last season, Forsberg, Arvidsson and Subban, are all out on the IR. Add Kyle Turris, and the Preds might have some trouble maintaining their lead.

Even with some of their best players out, Nashville still has firm ownership of their identity. They have a unique set of offensive defensemen. P.K. Subban is out, but Roman Josi and Mattias Ekholm are still flying.

If Pekka Rinne manages to keep up this ridiculous pace, they still have a shot at the division title. That actually highlights another problem: their biggest non-injury related issue is Juuse Saros. Despite his performance last season, something is really up with him.

AVALANCHE

What a start the Avalanche have had. Instead of falling to the basement of the Central as predicted, they have managed to improve on last season. The big question here, is it sustainable?

Well, no, they haven’t really improved all that much. Despite flickering with young talent, the Avs are getting quite lucky early on. All of their top scorers have absolutely insane shooting percentages. Take a look at Mikko Rantanen. He has 45 points in 27 games, which is a 137 point pace.

But, his shooting percentage is nearing 19 percent. Even if he manages to keep that consistent, it’s unlikely that everyone else will. Nathan MacKinnon, with 43 points, has a 16.2 shooting percentage. Gabriel Landeskog has a 21.3 and Carl Soderberg has a 15.7.

When all of your top players are scoring at these rates, you’re going to see success. In fact, their shooting percentage is 12% overall. This is just not maintainable. If the Avs had an average shooting percentage, they would have 78 goals instead of 99.

JETS

Don’t kid yourself, the Jets are a better team than the Avalanche. They have a sustainable shooting percentage, a better CF% and a better offensive side. They and Nashville are the true contenders for the division.

However, Connor Hellebuyck’s early struggles probably put them behind the Predators. Either he improves, or Laurent Brossoit might have to take on a larger role. Although perhaps not as severe as Nashville, injuries to Dmitry Kulikov, Dustin Byfuglien, and Joe Morrow may hinder them.

They may not quite be the supreme powerhouse that some were expecting, (i.e. my Clarence S. Campbell pick) but they are still a very respectable group.

STARS

Dallas has probably been the least surprising team in the division. Again, considering the Avalanche’s fortunes so far, the Stars are not out-of-place in the 4th spot. Overall, they have a solid team.

Their biggest problem is their scoring, and it’s not a major one. If Seguin, Benn and Radulov can keep it up, it’ll hardly be noticeable. Their CF% is also one of the worst in the league at 47.5, but they don’t have an inflated shooting percentage. The Stars are very balanced; this is probably how they’ll perform all season.

Additionally, they have a reliable tandem in Bishop and Khudobin. Although their total shots allowed is fairly average, they effectively cancel any negative effects out. As long as they give decent offensive efforts, they should be a low-tier playoff team.

WILD

The Minnesota Wild were not supposed to be in the running. How’d they get here? Actually, they’re the real most improved team in the division. They were originally awarded the bottom spot due to having the second worst CF% in the league last season, but that’s all changed.

They’ve managed to bring it up by a full 3 percent from 47 to 50. Along with this, they’ve maintained good special teams, while Dubnyk and Stalock have been holding up in net.

Eric Staal isn’t leading the team anymore, but that’s okay. Granlund, Parise and even Mikko Koivu are stepping up as the main contributors. The Wild are doing a lot better than expected.

BLACKHAWKS

Oh boy. The Chicago Blackhawks are especially tough to look at, because their window really didn’t have to close as early as it did. When Marian Hossa’s contract was traded to the Arizona Coyotes, they lost two criminally underrated assets in Vinnie Hinostroza and Jordan Oesterle.

Alex DeBrincat being their best hope at a new generation of success, you can’t help but think how great it would be to still have someone like Teuvo Teravainen. Anyways, with their goal scoring, good goaltending and Joel Quenneville gone, hardly any part of the old Blackhawks still remain.

BLUES

Not to be the thousandth person to make a joke about their name, but wow. Just when everyone was getting excited about their big comeback, the injury bug decided to make its new home in Eastern Missouri.

Carl Gunnarsson, Jaden Schwartz, Alex Pietrangelo and Robby Fabbri have all been placed on the IR. Even Alexander Steen is out day-to-day. Unsurprisingly, the offense has looked abysmal. Where the average total shots so far is 865, the St. Louis Blues have 766.

With Carter Hutton gone, they also get the fun addition of being completely helpless in net. Jake Allen definitely struggled last season but not like this. With so many of their best players on the IR, the Blues probably will probably have to wait until next season for another shot.

PACIFIC DIVISION

PREDICTIONS:

1. Golden Knights
2. Kings (Oops)
3. Flames
4. Sharks (WC)
5. Oilers
6. Ducks
7. Coyotes
8. Canucks

REALITY:

1. Flames (Up 2)
2. Ducks (Up 4)
3. Sharks (Up 1)
4. Golden Knights (Down 3)
5. Coyotes (Up 2)
6. Oilers (Down 1)
7. Canucks (Up 1)
8. Kings (Down 6)

Change sum: 20

FLAMES

It feels weird to say this, but good job to the Calgary Flames! With great goal scoring and a very necessary great defensive display considering the goalie situation, the Flames are cementing themselves as the most exciting team in the Pacific Division.

Although their shooting percentage is also inflated, (not Colorado inflated though) their goal scoring ability is not to be dismissed. Gaudreau, Monahan and Tkachuk are leading the way, but helpful contributions are coming from everywhere.

The steal-everyone-on-the-Hurricanes plan is also turning out to be a success. Elias Lindholm has 30 points, Noah Hanifin looks great, Derek Ryan is fine and Bill Peters isn’t getting run out of town.

Although Mike Smith is (finally) struggling, David Rittich just might be developing into a starter. A 54 CF% leaves them 4th in the league in that department. At long last, the Flames finally seem to have some real, sustainable talent.

DUCKS

The Anaheim Ducks might think they’re so great tearing apart these predictions. But no, the Ducks are the Avalanche of the Pacific Division. There is no way they can maintain their current style of play.

The Ducks haven’t won by more than two goals since 22 games ago. Their PDO may not show it, but they are one of the luckiest teams in the league. They have nearly 100 shots less than average, they have just 68 goals in 29 games and they’re allowing more than 100 shots above the average. Their CF% is second worst in the league. What else is there to say?

John Gibson and a load of luck are why they’re second in the division. This team doesn’t have long.

SHARKS

A lot of people expected the San Jose Sharks to rise to contention once again, but they do have at least one big problem: both Martin Jones and Aaron Dell are struggling early on. That’s the only thing that separates this team from greatness, really.

They have the third highest CF% in the league, they have more than 100 shots above average and their defensive efforts have been decent. They also have Erik Karlsson. Have you heard about that? Unfortunately, their shooting percentage is more than a full 1% below the league average. With a normal percentage, they would have 95 goals instead of 85.

If that sorts itself out, they’ll have a good chance to stay in playoff contention. However, their apparent lack of a starting goalie might prevent them from going on a Cup run like some expected.

So, they probably are a very good-great team, but they need that starting goaltender if they’re going to face off against the best the conference has to offer.

GOLDEN KNIGHTS

Honestly, it’s quite hard to pinpoint what exactly is wrong with the Vegas Golden Knights. They’re far from bad, but a lot of people expected more. What’s wrong with them? Well, their powerplay hasn’t been very good and their shooting percentage is a bit below average. That’s about it.

They have a shot differential of +161, so that’s not a problem. Their CF% is 2nd best in the league. Marc-Andre Fleury has improved from the beginning of the season to a .912 save percentage. What it looks like is that a lot of their talent has been displayed in individual hammerings instead of spread out across the entire season. Thus, they’ve had great outings and terrible outings.

In fact, they’ve had a whole lot of lopsided games, for and against. Their first was the 7-2 loss to the Coyotes, then the 7-2 victory over the Kings, the 7-2 loss to the Flames, the 8-3 victory over the Blackhawks and a few 5+ goal games.

So, maybe they’ve been getting some weird luck in where their talent has manifested. They’re still a really good team who enjoys a contender’s status.

COYOTES

So, the Yotes have one of the worst offenses in the league. They’re still yet to see anyone reach 20 points. This also manifests in their ugly 15.91 powerplay percentage. The only thing that excuses this is that they allow the fewest goals in the league.

How they’ve managed the latter, it’s hard to tell. Their defense has been just good, not great, and their goaltending has seen mixed results. Antti Raanta’s save percentage is .906 and Kuemper’s is .914.

Their injuries have left Adin Hill in net temporarily. With this strangeness persisting, the fate of the Coyotes is anyone’s guess.

OILERS

How is it that a team with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins down the middle isn’t scoring? Ask the Edmonton Oilers. Year after year, it seems that they just can’t ever do anything right.

Their special teams are impressive, you can give them that. How are they only around the league average in shots, though? It’s incredible. Even with Mikko Koskinen playing the way he is, they just look so average.

Really, does any other fanbase have it this bad? It’s pretty close.

CANUCKS

Unfortunately, the Vancouver Canucks‘s early streak of luck has come to an end. Although Horvat, Pettersson and Boeser are the start of a good offensive corps, the Canucks project is far from complete.

The defense obviously still isn’t where it needs to be and Jacob Markstrom just isn’t cutting it. Poor special teams combined with a basement-level CF% show that this team still needs a lot of work.

Give them credit though, the Canucks have a plan for the future, and fans have something to be excited about.

KINGS

The Los Angeles Kings really aren’t this bad. They’re definitely bad, and obviously not playoff contenders, but they are not quite laughingstock bad. Last season, they still had an average CF% and a +35 goal differential. Also, Jonathan Quick.

The whole 58 goals thing can be completely explained by the shooting percentage in this case. At 7.4%, they are 2.3% below the league average. Again, these sound like small numbers, but an average shooting percentage would bring them to 76 goals.

This would give them a -9 goal differential instead of the -26 they’re dealing with now. Their offense is still pretty bad (even worse without Kovalchuk) and their defense is kind of average-ish, but they are nowhere near this bad. Don’t fret too much Kings fans; you guys are better than this.