Saturday, December 8, 2018

REVISITING PRESEASON CONCERNS FOR ALL 32 NFL TEAMS


Every NFL team had something to worry about entering this 2018 season.
Three months after league execs shared their No. 1 concern for each team; we revisit every preseason worry to see which ones stuck and which ones dissipated like a 23-7 halftime lead for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
WORRIES THAT REALLY WERE WORRISOME
ARIZONA CARDINALS
The worry: Continued offensive-line troubles and two quarterbacks with durability/performance concerns could be a rough combination.
The reality: Upsetting the Packers at Lambeau Field should temporarily ease the sting of a Cardinals season defined by poor play from the offensive line and poor production from the offense in general, including the quarterbacks.
Losing center A.Q. Shipley to a season-ending injury in camp turned a difficult situation dire. Three other linemen have landed on injured reserve since then, including free-agent addition Justin Pugh. Right tackle Andre Smith struggled, and he was released after making eight starts.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals finished Week 13 ranked last in Total QBR, with passing stats worse than the ones the 2012 team produced when John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley were the primary starters.
ATLANTA FALCONS
The worry: Having a veteran offensive line can be great, but after Andy Levitre (32) and Ryan Schraeder (30) missed games last season, there are concerns too.
The reality: Levitre landed on injured reserve after two games. The line took another hit when its other starting guard, 30-year-old Brandon Fusco, suffered a season-ending injury after starting the first seven games. The weakened offensive line has contributed to an offensive downturn in recent weeks. The Falcons ranked eighth in offensive points per game through Week 8. They ranked 21st in that category from Weeks 9-13.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
The worry: Not having the quarterback or weaponry to keep pace against the league's best.
An exec thought Baltimore could grind out victories with its defense when Joe Flacco avoided turnovers, but not against the higher-scoring teams, including the NFC South opponents on the Ravens' schedule this season.
The reality: Baltimore has improved on offense, fitting in near the middle of the pack in ESPN's efficiency metric after ranking 27th from 2015 to 2017. However, the improvement has not been enough for the Ravens to keep pace with the better teams.
The Ravens have a 1-2 record against the NFC South and an 0-4 mark when their opponents exceed 21 points.
From 2008 to 2012, when Flacco was on his rookie contract, the Ravens ranked sixth with an 11-18 record in games when their opponents exceeded 21 points. They were 10th in offensive efficiency and first on defense during those years. That mark has fallen to 6-38 (26th) since 2013, including 2018 defeats to Carolina, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. The Ravens have been 23rd in offensive efficiency (seventh on defense) over that span.
BUFFALO BILLS
The worry: A trade made in conjunction with setting up the Bills' quarterback future could hurt them in the present.
The reality: The moves Buffalo made in positioning itself to get Josh Allen cost the team left tackle Cordy Glenn and two second-round picks, among other considerations. That will be a small price to pay if Allen becomes what the Bills hope he will become. In the short term, however, subtracting those resources made it tougher to support a rookie quarterback, especially with Allen producing at a lower level than Tyrod Taylor produced.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
The worry: It could be difficult turning a bunch of acquisitions into a cohesive unit in an environment featuring some strong personalities.
The reality: Those strong personalities did not mesh well enough. Owner Jimmy Haslam cited "internal discord" as a leading reason the Browns fired head coach Hue Jackson after eight games. It's a little early to know whether the veteran player acquisitions -- Jarvis Landry comes to mind -- will help form a cohesive unit longer term.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
The worry: The Bengals risked shifting too much of the burden onto a Tier 3 quarterback.
The reality: Andy Dalton was enjoying a strong season until some of the pieces around him began falling apart. With the defense dropping off unexpectedly, the Bengals needed Dalton to do more than could be realistically expected.
DETROIT LIONS
The worry: Not having the pass rush to cover for a problem that hasn't been addressed well enough.
The reality: The Lions rank 29th in how frequently they've gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks (25 percent of the time). They rank 31st in opponent passer rating allowed (110.8) and 28th in expected points added on pass defense. The cornerback slot opposite Darius Slay remains a question mark.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The worry: There are no guarantees Green Bay has fixed its cornerback conundrum.
The reality: Green Bay defensive passing game coordinator Joe Whitt recently said he thought Jaire Alexander and Kevin King could become another Charles Woodson/Al Harris corner combination for the Packers. Alexander has been outstanding, but King has nearly as many games missed (13) as games played (15) during his two NFL seasons. Harris did not miss a game during his first five seasons with Green Bay. Woodson missed three in his first six seasons with the team.
HOUSTON TEXANS
The worry: The trade for Deshaun Watson makes it harder to protect Deshaun Watson.
The reality: Houston obviously has no regrets in trading away its 2018 first-round pick to Cleveland for the 2017 choice used to select Watson, even though that 2018 pick wound up being the fourth overall choice. The preseason worry was simply that the Texans' offensive line would not be strong enough to protect Watson adequately, in part because the team had given up significant draft capital to acquire him.
The line has indeed been a concern. Watson has taken too many hits -- some from running with the ball and otherwise holding it for extended periods, others from protection problems. It hasn't stopped the Texans from becoming one of the NFL's hottest teams over the past two months, but it has made life painful for Watson, especially earlier in the season.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The worry: Could a brash, young team handle success well enough to take the next step? One exec asked whether "the young guys can become professionals" this season.
The reality: There are obvious football reasons behind the Jaguars' struggles, but this season will be remembered for the large gap between Jalen Ramsey's trash talk and his team's performance, plus the suspension Leonard Fournette drew for fighting.
LOS ANGELES RAMS
The worry: If it's not age on the line, it's life on the edge.
The reality: While the Rams' aging offensive line has generally held up so far, the team's need for an edge rusher persisted even as the Rams kept winning games. The front office acted by trading a 2019 third-round pick to Jacksonville for edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
The worry: The Dolphins could be inconsistent while relying on lots of really old guys and lots of really young guys.
The reality: The 30-something veterans of Daniel KilgoreJosh Sitton and William Hayes combined to play eight games before landing on injured reserve. Danny Amendola missed the Dolphins' game on Sunday. Another older player, guard Ted Larsen, 31, missed two recent starts. Some of the young players have met or exceeded expectations, including Xavien Howard and Laremy Tunsil, but the case can be made that some other young players have not ascended as needed, including Cordrea TankersleyRaekwon McMillan and Mike Gesicki.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The worry: Kirk Cousins won't be as adept as Case Keenum at covering for a position of weakness.
The reality: Cousins' 5.6 percent sack rate marks a big increase from the 2.0 percent rate for Keenum to the same point in 2017. ESPN's charting showed pressure rates to be similar for both quarterbacks, suggesting Keenum really did bail out the Vikings' leaky offensive line more than Cousins has been able to do so. Cousins has upgraded the offense in other ways, but this particular concern appears to have been valid.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The worry: Counting on so many players with elevated injury risks will be tough even for a future Hall of Fame coach.
The reality: Rob GronkowskiIsaiah WynnTrey FlowersDerek Rivers and Dont'a Hightower were among the players an exec mentioned as carrying elevated injury risks into the season. All have missed time this season. So has running back Sony Michel, the rookie first-round pick whose medical history raised questions during the draft process. The Patriots are still winning at their usual clip, but it hasn't looked as easy.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
The worry: The cornerback situation will hold back an improved defense.
The reality: Cornerback has indeed been an issue for the Saints, to the point that they sent a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2020 seventh-rounder to the Giants for Eli Apple.
NEW YORK GIANTS
The worry: The magic is gone for two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning, whose numbers over the past two seasons are nearly identical to the numbers for Blake Bortles.
The reality: There's room to debate how poorly Manning has played -- he has certainly been preferable to the since-benched Bortles -- but the basic worry was justified. The Giants' 4-8 record leaves them last in an underwhelming NFC East and heading toward an offseason that will presumably include the pursuit of their successor to Manning.
NEW YORK JETS
The worry: A young gunslinger at quarterback isn't a great fit for this team as it is currently configured.
The reality: First-round pick Sam Darnold is the third player since 2012 to throw interceptions on at least 4.8 percent of pass attempts in a season (minimum 250 attempts). That far exceeds the NFL's 2.5 percent interception rate over that nearly seven-season span. Darnold leads the NFL in interceptions with 14, despite missing the Jets' past three games.
Every team wants an efficient quarterback who avoids turnovers. The Jets, as a team with a defense-minded head coach and limited offensive weaponry, need one more than most.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
The worry: A talented offense might not age well.
The reality: Marshawn Lynch and Donald Penn headline the Raiders' injured-reserve list, while Jordy Nelson has battled injuries without making much of an impact. Another potential contributor over age 30, Breno Giacomini, was released before the season after struggling to get healthy. The Raiders have had all kinds of problems. An aging offense is one of them.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The worry: Staying on top will be harder than getting there, especially with these changes. "They ran off some longtime Eagle guys like [Brent] Celek, [Vinny] Curry and [Mychal] Kendricks, and added some guys from other teams with storied pasts," one of the execs said before the season.
The reality: Eagles center Jason Kelce said essentially the same thing during the season, contending that the team had become less accountable after subtracting Celek and other veteran players.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
The worry: A coach known for maximizing personnel (Kyle Shanahan) might not be able to do that in a few key cases. An exec specifically questioned whether the 49ers could get adequate return on investment from Jerick McKinnonPierre GarconSolomon Thomas and some of the defensive backs the team drafted recently.
The reality: McKinnon suffered a season-ending injury before the opener, Garcon was on the trade block in October and Thomas remains a questionable fit for the defensive scheme. Meanwhile, in the secondary, 2017 third-round pick Ahkello Witherspoon has drawn the wrong kind of attention, including criticism for waving his arms in frustration after a busted coverage enabled an Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown grab.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The worry: Efforts to improve the leadership and overall makeup of the team could be too little, too late.
The reality: Jason Pierre-Paul has brought solid play and outstanding leadership, by all accounts, but it hasn't been enough to keep the Buccaneers pointed in the right direction. The moves do seem to be of the too-little, too-late variety.
TENNESSEE TITANS
The worry: It might be unrealistic to expect miracles from a team with a defense-minded rookie head coach and a young offensive staff.
The reality: The Titans are averaging 17.8 offensive points per game (28th), down from 20.4 last season (15th). Marcus Mariota, while 10th in yards per pass attempt, ranks 20th in Total QBR, 28th in touchdown passes, 23rd in touchdown percentage, 22nd in interception percentage and 34th (last) in sack rate. That's not what the Titans were expecting.
WORRIES THAT WOUND UP NOT BEING SO WORRISOME
CAROLINA PANTHERS
The worry: Not having sufficient depth to overcome issues on the offensive line.
The reality: There have been games, notably against Pittsburgh and again Sunday against Tampa Bay, in which this worry seemed like an overriding one. Overall, however, the line has outperformed expectations, with an assist from offensive coordinator Norv Turner's scheming. The Panthers' biggest problem, by far, is a defense that went from a top-10 unit to a bottom-10 unit almost overnight.
CHICAGO BEARS
The worry: Being unproven and unestablished at two of the most important spots in any NFL organization.
The reality: Rookie head coach Matt Nagy has gotten more from second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky than some thought he would. The Bears' offense has made quantum leaps in design and production. This team appears enlivened by youth, not held back by inexperience. Chicago ranks 10th in offensive points per game (25.1) after ranking 31st last season (14.2).
DALLAS COWBOYS
The worry: Will Dallas collect on bets it has made in the secondary?
The reality: Young defensive backs Byron JonesAnthony BrownChidobe Awuzie and Xavier Woods entered the NFL as Cowboys draft choices from 2015 to 2017. Those four also rank among the top five on the team in defensive snaps by defensive backs. The group put together a signature performance against New Orleans on Thursday; the latest indication the Cowboys could be collecting on those bets in the secondary. A strong front seven with emerging talent at linebacker helps their cause.
DENVER BRONCOS
The worry: The team's best hope for improvement in 2018 (Case Keenum) will be asked to do too much for an offense that might not have the ground game or offensive line to support him.
The reality: Phillip Lindsay's surprise emergence as a front-line running back has given Denver the ground game it needed, taking some pressure off Keenum. The rookie runner has 346 yards and five touchdowns during a three-game winning streak that has saved the Broncos' season. Keenum has ranked among the NFL's bottom five qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR, but he has still been an upgrade over Trevor Siemian.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The worry: A leaky defense could make it tough for Indy to make good on its No. 1 priority of the offseason (protecting Andrew Luck).
The reality: The Indy defense has not been terrible. Meanwhile, an improved offensive line, shorter passes and a career-low scramble rate have helped spare Luck from the punishment he has taken in other seasons. Opponents have contacted Luck on 6.3 percent of his plays this season, down from between 13 and 16 percent in his other seasons. That's a big change.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The worry: The combination of a young quarterback and shaky defense causes the team to regress.
The reality: Um, let's just say the combination of a young quarterback and a shaky defense has not held back the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is indeed young. The Kansas City defense has indeed been shaky, ranking among the bottom 10 teams in ESPN's efficiency metric. But with the offense blowing away its 2017 pace, the Chiefs are 10-2 regardless. Consider: Kansas City has allowed 337 points through 12 games. The 2012 Saints allowed the same total through 12 games and had a 5-7 record to show for it, even with Drew Brees' 31 touchdown passes leading the league to that point.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The worry: The quarterback reverts to 2016 form, and not enough Chargers fans are there to see it.
The reality: Philip Rivers finished that 2016 season with 33 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions during a 5-11 season. He enters Week 14 with 28 touchdowns and only six picks. His 1.6 percent interception rate would improve upon his career-best 1.7 percent rate from last season (down from a career-worst 3.6 percent in 2016). Rivers has put to rest any fears he would revert to some of his more turnover-prone seasons. As for the fears about lack of a home-field advantage, those persist, but they haven't held back the team appreciably.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The worry: A soft middle could betray a defense that led the NFL in sacks last season. "They lost Ryan Shazier, they paid [Morgan] Burnett and then they used a first-round pick on a box safety in [Terrell] Edmunds, who is just not a center-field range guy," an exec said before the season.
The reality: We could slide this one into the "worries that really were worrisome" category if we could pin the defense's low turnover production on Pittsburgh lacking athleticism up the middle. However, Pittsburgh has clearly made progress in shoring up its No. 1 defensive weakness, despite the turnover deficiency. It's not the players' fault that Pittsburgh's scheme kept matching linebackers against Chargers receiver Keenan Allen on Sunday night.
Inside linebackers Vince Williams and Jon Bostic have outperformed expectations, to the point that this defense doesn't really have a glaring weakness, other than the turnover production, which could be somewhat random.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The worry: The team's biggest weakness in recent seasons, its offensive line, will remain its biggest weakness.
The reality: Seattle's offensive line has gone from being a constant focus of criticism to leading a rushing revival. Mike Solari gets some of the credit as the Seahawks' new offensive line coach. Free-agent signing D.J. Fluker has provided muscle and personality (a hamstring injury suffered Sunday could set back the line overall). Left tackle Duane Brown is healthy.
Those changes, a renewed commitment to the ground game and improved personnel at running back helped Seattle set a franchise record this season by rushing for at least 150 yards in seven consecutive games.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The worry: The consistent ground game that helped Smith succeed in Kansas City and San Francisco could be missing.
The reality: Adrian Peterson has given Washington consistency in the ground game. It's the other changes -- new system, less explosive weaponry -- that Smith missed before suffering a season-ending injury.

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