Saturday, March 2, 2019

MY NHL WISH LIST


NHL PLAYOFF RACE RESET
The NHL begins sending out their "playoff picture" emails on the first evening after the trade deadline. It's a large spreadsheet filled with the current standings, the schedules ahead and the "tragic numbers" for teams in playoff contention, i.e. the number of points they have to lose and the team in the last wild card has to gain before they're eliminated. (Memo to Connor McDavid: It's 30 right now for the Edmonton Oilers.)
This email symbolizes the start of the stretch run, when we start really focusing on the playoff races and all of the various factors, as well as our Playoff Watch Daily page, for you to keep tabs on it all.
This week in The Wish List, we present a snapshot of these playoffs races. Keep in mind that "ROW" are the teams' regulation and overtime (non-shootout) wins, which are the first tie-breaker if they're knotted in points at the end of the regular season on April 6.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
ATLANTIC DIVISION
1. Tampa Bay Lightning (103 points, 43 ROW, 17 games left)
2. Boston Bruins (85 points, 36 ROW, 18 games left)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (82 points, 39 ROW, 18 games left)

METRO DIVISION
1. New York Islanders (81 points, 34 ROW, 19 games left)
2. Washington Capitals (79 points, 33 ROW, 18 games left)
3. Columbus Blue Jackets (75 points, 36 ROW, 19 games left)

WILD CARD
WC1. Montreal Canadiens (75 points, 32 ROW, 18 games left)
WC2. Carolina Hurricanes (74 points, 33 ROW, 19 games left)

IN THE HUNT
Pittsburgh Penguins (74 points, 32 ROW, 19 games left)
Philadelphia Flyers (68 points, 28 ROW, 18 games left)
Buffalo Sabres (66 points, 25 ROW, 19 games left)

THE WORST POSSIBLE HOMECOMING FOR JOHN TAVARES
The former Islander returned to a bold display of displeasure from his former fans. And, oh yeah, his team lost 6-1, too.
WHERE YOU DON'T WANT TO BE: Wild card No. 2. That gets you the Lightning in Round 1, and they're 16-2 in the first two rounds of the playoffs in their past two postseasons. Of course, if you're the Hurricanes, you're probably just happy to be there.
WHAT'S INTERESTING ABOUT THE HURRICANES: Money Puck has them at 77.8 percent to make the playoffs, which is a higher probability than the Canadiens (73.08) team that they're chasing. Pittsburgh is right in the middle at 74.52 percent.
MOST FASCINATING TEAM: Obviously it's the Blue Jackets. They're the Giancarlo Stanton of hockey, taking the mightiest swing and knowing it's either a home run or an epic whiff. What happens if they go all-in and they miss the playoffs? I don't want to even consider it, because I want to believe that fortune favors the bold, but -- what if they miss? What does this team look like in 2019-20?
X FACTOR: The Penguins. After their eight-game winning streak to close out the 2018 calendar year, Pittsburgh hasn't won more than two games in a row. They can't find consistency, can't find their rhythm, can't stay completely healthy. It's still Sidney CrosbyEvgeni MalkinPhil Kessel and Kris Letang. It's still a franchise that hasn't missed the playoffs since 2006. They could finish anywhere from second in the Metro to outside out of the playoffs entirely, and no one would be shocked.
MATCHUPS WE WANT TO SEE: There are several scenarios in which the New York Islanders face either John Tavares or Barry Trotz's old team in the playoffs, and we really, really hope to see one or both reunions.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
CENTRAL DIVISION
1. Nashville Predators (79 points, 35 ROW, 16 games left)
2. Winnipeg Jets (78 points, 35 ROW, 19 games left)
3. St. Louis Blues (74 points, 33 ROW, 19 games left)

PACIFIC DIVISION
1. Calgary Flames (89 points, 41 ROW, 18 games left)
2. San Jose Sharks (82 points, 37 ROW, 18 games left)
3. Vegas Golden Knights (73 points, 31 ROW, 17 games left)

WILD CARD
WC1 - Dallas Stars (69 points, 32 ROW, 18 games left)
WC2 - Minnesota Wild (68 points, 30 ROW, 18 games left)

IN THE HUNT
Colorado Avalanche (68 points, 27 ROW, 18 games left)
Arizona Coyotes (67 points, 27 ROW, 18 games left)
Chicago Blackhawks (63 points, 26 ROW, 18 games left)
Vancouver Canucks (63 points, 24 ROW, 17 games left)

WHERE YOU DON'T WANT TO BE: In the two vs. three series in the Pacific, but alas it appears we're destined to lose either the Sharks or Golden Knights after one round because they're a bit locked in. Should be a classic series, but still a bummer.
MOST FASCINATING TEAM: St. Louis. Was that 11-game winning streak their calling card to the rest of the league that the formerly last-place team is now a championship contender, or are we in for a regression before the playoffs hit?
X FACTOR: The Coyotes had a quiet trade deadline because they're getting a slew of players back from injury. (True to form, they may have lost Derek Stepan to injury last night.) One reason they're an X factor: They currently have only seven playoff teams on the schedule the rest of the way, and two of the games (Vegas and Winnipeg) are in the last two games of the season, i.e. the rest zone.
MATCHUP WE WANT TO SEE: Nashville and Winnipeg. C'mon, why pretend this isn't one of the NHL's absolute bangers of a playoff series? Of course, it would be nice if Pekka Rinne could win a game or two in a critical spot this time around.


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