Once the regular season starts, there are 750 players on
major league rosters, not counting guys on the injured list or the four Dodgers
en route at any given time from Triple-A Oklahoma City to Los Angeles. You
can't talk about all of them!
But here's a list of 30 players, one from each team, whom we
should spend more time talking about in 2019. It's a mix of stars we should
appreciate more, veterans who don't get enough praise and up-and-coming stars
to watch -- plus some players I just like.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
CENTRAL
PITTSBURGH
PIRATES
Jameson Taillon
After a cancer scare in 2017, Taillon finally had his first
full season in the majors, and it was a good one, as he went 14-10 with a 3.20
ERA in 32 starts and 191 innings. A strong final two months suggest he might do
even better in 2019, fronting what could be an underrated Pirates rotation.
MILWAUKEE
BREWERS
Christian
Yelich
Most expect the reigning MVP to see a decline in his
numbers, primarily because his second half was so insane -- .367/.449/.770, 21
home runs in August and September -- that it would seem impossible to do that
again. You also could point out that his average launch angle remained unchanged
from 2017, at 4.7 degrees (very low for a power hitter), yet he doubled his
home runs from 18 to 36. But when you dig into the Statcast data, Yelich's
results were pretty legit. His wOBA was .422 compared to an expected wOBA based
on quality of contact of .410, so there wasn't a lot of luck involved. He's a
good hitter in his prime who moved to a better park. He's going to mash again.
Maybe he'll even do this again:
CHICAGO CUBS
Kris Bryant
Remember him? After winning MVP honors in 2016, Bryant fell
from 39 home runs to 29 in 2017 (though he still finished seventh in the MVP
voting). He was off to a great start last year (OPS over 1.000 through May 22)
before shoulder issues wrecked the rest of his season. Bryant heard the
critics. "This game is all about, 'What have you done for me
lately?'" Bryant told ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers the other day. "And boy,
did I get to experience that last year. That's all I have to say about
that." He added this, however: "And I'm like, 'All right, I'm
motivated. Keep 'em coming. Bring it.'"
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALS
Jack Flaherty
Flaherty's rookie season got lost in the hype of the other
rookie stars, but the Cardinals righty averaged 10.8 K's per nine innings, and
batters hit just .199 off him. His slider is a thing of beauty, and batters
don't seem to pick up his four-seam fastball very well. He mixes in enough
curveballs to keep lefties off balance. I think he has ace potential.
CINCINNATI
REDS
Eugenio
Suarez
He made the All-Star team, so it's not like he was
completely unrecognized, but players on small-market, last-place teams don't
tend to get a lot of national publicity. After hitting .283/.366/.526 with 34
home runs and 104 RBIs in 143 games, Suarez proved he's a foundation piece for
the Reds.
NL EAST
ATLANTA
BRAVES
Ender
Inciarte
He's kind of a throwback player, if you want to consider the
1980s and early 1990s a throwback era. Inciarte is an elite defender who has
won three straight Gold Gloves in center field, and he slashes the ball around
at the plate instead of trying to loft everything and striking out a million
times. I could do with a few more Inciarte types.
WASHINGTON
NATIONALS
Juan Soto
I know Vladdy Jr. is the shiny new toy, but Soto is only a
few months older and already has posted a .406 OBP and .517 slugging percentage
in the majors as a 19-year-old rookie. This kid is going to be a generational
hitter. Put it this way: The Nationals don't need Bryce Harper.
They have someone better.
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIES
Nick Pivetta
At this point, Pivetta is more a guy we could end
up talking about than somebody we should be talking about,
considering he's coming off a 7-14, 4.77 season. The number that pops out,
however: 188 strikeouts in 164 innings. Among pitchers with at least 150
innings, he ranked 16th in the majors in strikeout rate at 27.1 percent, just
behind Mike
Foltynewicz and one spot ahead of teammate Aaron Nola.
He has a plus fastball (94.8 mph), and his curveball and slider produced good
results. His two-seamer, however, was a terrible pitch for him (.379/.471/.569
in 68 PAs ending with the pitch).
Anyway, quick study. What are Pivetta's breakout chances? I
looked at all pitchers since 2000 with at least a 23 percent strikeout rate,
150 innings and an ERA over 4.50. How did they do the following season? Leaving
off the five guys who did it in 2018, the other 23 collectively were noticeably
better the next season:
Year 1: 3,991⅓ innings, 4.83 ERA
Year 2: 3,481⅔ innings, 3.92 ERA
It's interesting that there are multiple repeat offenders on
the list. Ricky Nolasco and Bud Norris never
did put it all together. Francisco
Liriano had some bad years, then a good stretch with the
Pirates, then another bad year. There's no guarantee that Pivetta is ready to
break out in 2019. One success story for Phillies fans to dream about: Trevor Bauer improved
from a 4.55 ERA in 2015 to 2.21 last season.
NEW YORK METS
Brandon Nimmo
Nimmo is coming off a .404 OBP. Put him in the leadoff spot,
play him every day, and let him score 100 runs.
MIAMI MARLINS
Caleb Smith
As with the Orioles, you have to use a little imagination
here. The Marlins have several interesting young starters, including
Smith, Pablo Lopez and Victor
Alcantara. Smith was having a solid rookie campaign until he went
down for the season in June with a lat injury. He fanned 88 in 77⅓ innings,
held batters to a .220 average and is a lefty with a decent enough fastball
(92.8 mph). He's a little old to be viewed as a pitcher with big upside (he's
27), but he could surprise.
NL WEST
LOS ANGELES
DODGERS
Walker
Buehler
In Game 163 to determine the NL West title, Buehler held the
Rockies to one hit and no runs in 6⅔ innings. In his World Series start against
the Red Sox, he allowed two hits in seven scoreless innings. Hello, baseball
world. Buehler's pure stuff and deep arsenal of pitches suggest that Cy Young Awards
are in his future -- maybe even the immediate future. The only thing that might
hold him back from Cy Young contention this year is an innings limit. He threw
153 last season (plus 23 in the postseason), and the Dodgers might not want to
ramp up their young right-hander to 190 or 200 just yet.
COLORADO
ROCKIES
German
Marquez.
On June 24, Marquez was 5-8 with a 5.53 ERA. Then he
suddenly figured things out -- an improved curveball to go with his heater and
slider was a big key -- and in his final 17 starts, he went 9-3 with a 2.47
ERA, 146 strikeouts and 22 walks in 113 innings. That's a 33.3 percent strikeout
rate and 5.0 percent walk rate.
Nick Gerli of pitcherlist.com found just five pitchers since
2014 with half-seasons with an ERA, FIP and xFIP all below 2.50 as well as a 25
percent SO-BB rate. These are the elite of the elite: Clayton
Kershaw (three times), Corey Kluber (twice),
Chris Sale, Noah
Syndergaard and Jose Fernandez. Those guys didn't have to pitch
half of their games in Coors Field. Without the emergence of Marquez and Kyle Freeland in
2018, do the Rockies re-sign Nolan Arenado?
Probably not. Those two gave Arenado a reason to stay and believe in the
Rockies' future.
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKS
David Peralta
David Peralta hit 30 home runs last year? Did you know he
hit 30 home runs? Peralta has two seasons remaining until free agency, but he's
31, and given the Diamondbacks' offseason churn, he could be prime in-season
trade bait for a team that needs an outfielder. We mean you, Cleveland.
SAN FRANCISCO
GIANTS
Will Smith
Smith has gone from the Royals to the Brewers to the Giants
and missed 2017 with Tommy John surgery, but he has become one of the better
lefty relievers in the game and is coming off a season in which he fanned 71 in
53 innings. He's a pending free agent, so like Peralta; he's prime trade bait
if the Giants don't contend for the playoffs.
SAN DIEGO
PADRES
Chris Paddack
He sometimes gets lost in the Padres' deep list of
prospects, but Paddack is one of my favorite minor league pitchers. Stolen from
the Marlins for Fernando
Rodney, he missed 2017 with Tommy John surgery but returned last
year to post a 2.10 ERA between high-A and Double-A, with a ridiculous 120-8
strikeout-to-walk ratio. He throws 95 with a devastating changeup, and if his
curveball can develop into a solid third pitch, he looks like a potential
top-of-the-rotation arm.
More spring training coverage: Why we're excited spring training is here | Stars not named Manny or Bryce who changed teams
AL
EAST
BOSTON RED
SOX
Eduardo
Rodriguez
Let's put it this way: The Red Sox are talking a lot about
Eduardo Rodriguez. When I was at Red Sox camp last week, Alex Cora raved about
Rodriguez. The lefty, who turns 26 in April, is working on a new slider
that Chris Sale taught
him, and the pitch has impressed teammates and the coaching staff so far.
Rodriguez is already one of the hardest-throwing lefty starters, and he owns
one of the best changeups. He's also healthy and in better shape than he was
last season, when he was coming off knee surgery.
"They want him to be great," Cora said of
Rodriguez's teammates. "They see it. At one point in their careers, Sale
and [David] Price was
that guy. They're hard on him because they know how talented he is. Sometimes
he gets caught up on who he wants to be. He wants to be Chris one day and Rick
[Porcello] the next day and David the next outing. We want him
to be Eduardo."
Rodriguez was 13-5 with a 3.82 ERA last season, fanning 146
batters in 129⅔ innings. The feeling from Red Sox camp is that he's ready to --
cliché alert! -- take it to the next level.
NEW YORK
YANKEES
Aaron Hicks
A reminder that player development can take many paths.
Hicks was a first-round pick of the Twins in 2008 but became a late bloomer who
didn't have a breakout season until 2017 after a trade to the Yankees. He just
signed a seven-year, $70 million extension, and that should be a bargain for
the Yankees if Hicks plays like he has the past two seasons, when he averaged
4.3 WAR. He'll probably transition out of center field after a few seasons
since he's already 29, but his on-base ability -- he had the fifth-highest walk
rate in the majors in 2018 -- and power (27 home runs) make him an underrated
offensive asset.
TAMPA BAY
RAYS
Blake Snell
Snell's fastball averages 96.5 mph. His curveball, honed
through the years, reached new levels of dominance in 2018, as batters hit .126
against it with a 64.1 percent strikeout rate. His slider? Batters hit .096
against that wipeout pitch. Oh, he also throws a changeup. Here's Mookie Betts on
why Snell is so tough: "He's so tall that he has a high release and I'm
assuming a bunch of spin. You always have to sit on the fastball because he
throws so hard. But he throws two, three, four pitches for strikes, and then
he'll throw something that looks like a strike and isn't. That's why he won the
Cy Young." Snell told me this spring that he has bigger goals than one Cy
Young Award. Don't dismiss his chances of winning another one.
TORONTO BLUE
JAYS
Cavan Biggio
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are the jewels of the
Toronto farm system and understandably are receiving a lot of hype, but the
third son of a former All-Star is an intriguing prospect as well. After hitting
.252/.388/.499 with 26 home runs, 100 walks and 20 steals at Double-A, Biggio
posted a .405 OBP in the Arizona Fall League. The left-handed batter is a
second baseman by trade, but the Jays are grooming him into a Ben Zobrist type,
playing him at third and in the outfield. He needs to cut down on the
strikeouts, but he's one of my favorite sleeper minor leaguers.
BALTIMORE
ORIOLES
Renato Nunez
OK, it's the Orioles, so we admittedly had to dig a little
here. The Orioles claimed Nunez off waivers from the Rangers in May, and he hit
.275/.336/.445 in 60 games, earning the starting third-base job for 2019. He
hit 32 home runs for Triple-A Nashville while in the A's organization in 2017,
so there's some power potential. He's young enough -- 25 in April -- that he's
still growing as a hitter.
AL
CENTRAL
CLEVELAND
INDIANS
Mike
Clevinger
Remember Vinnie Pestano? Had a couple of good relief seasons
for the Indians in 2011 and 2012. Last pitched in the majors in 2015. Well, the
Indians traded Pestano to the Angels for Clevinger. The Angels got 21 innings
from Pestano. The Indians acquired a starter who had a completely
under-the-radar 5.2-WAR season last year, throwing 200 innings and holding
batters to a .223 average. He doesn't get attention in Cleveland's star-studded
rotation ... but he'll get some with another big season.
MINNESOTA
TWINS
Willians
Astudillo
I mean, I need only to post this video to explain why we
should be talking more about the wonderful, astonishing Astudillo. But I'll
also point out that he almost never strikes out -- just three times in 97 plate
appearances with the Twins:
DETROIT
TIGERS
Miguel
Cabrera
Let's not assume Cabrera is done as an elite hitter just
yet. He was hitting .299/.395/.448 last year before a ruptured biceps ended his
season. He played through a back problem in 2017, but when he was last healthy
in 2016, he hit .316 with 38 home runs. He turns 36 in April. If I had to
project, I might guess we would see more of what he did last year -- good
average and OBP -- but the 30-homer seasons are in the past.
CHICAGO WHITE
SOX
Eloy Jimenez
Well ... the White Sox didn't sign Manny Machado, Michael
Kopech is out for the season, Yoan Moncada struck
out 217 times, and they're coming off 100 losses. Jimenez is Keith Law's No. 5
overall prospect and could give Vlad Jr. a run for Rookie of the Year honors.
KANSAS CITY
ROYALS
Adalberto
Mondesi
He's a popular fantasy pick after hitting 14 home runs and
swiping 32 bases in just 75 games and hitting a surprising .276/.306/.498.
Prorate those numbers over 150 games, and he's a potential 25-homer/50-steal
guy, something only seven players have accomplished: Hanley
Ramirez, Barry Bonds, Rickey Henderson (twice), Eric Davis (twice),
Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan (twice) and Cesar Cedeno (twice). That would make
Mondesi one of the most exciting players in the league. Still, there's a wide
variance of outcomes here, as his pitch selection leaves something to be
desired (11 walks and 77 strikeouts), and Statcast data suggest his quality of
contact was nowhere near as good as his slugging percentage indicated.
AL WEST
HOUSTON
ASTROS
Gerrit Cole
On the star-studded Astros roster, it was easy to overlook
Cole, but he had his best season after coming over from the Pirates (15-5, 2.88
ERA, 276 strikeouts), and as he heads into free agency, a similar season will
establish him as a legit ace who will cash in next offseason.
OAKLAND
ATHLETICS
Matt Chapman
This is confirmation that Chapman's seventh-place finish in
the MVP voting was not a fluke. He is absolutely a supreme defender at the hot
corner -- his 29 defensive runs saved led all players -- and he bashed 72
extra-base hits, including a .309/.371/.591 line in the second half. If he does
that for a full season, he'll finish higher than seventh in the MVP voting.
Seattle
Mariners
Mitch Haniger
Haniger is our classic underrated player. He's good at
everything -- he has some pop, gets on base, is a good defender in right field,
has a good arm and plays on a team likely going nowhere. There's a reason he's
the one asset Jerry Dipoto did not trade, though contending teams will surely
be making calls this summer if the Mariners fall out of the race.
LOS ANGELES
ANGELS
Andrelton
Simmons
Simmons is the most gifted defensive shortstop since Ozzie
Smith -- maybe even better -- yet he has never made an All-Star team.
Baseball-Reference credits him with 13.3 WAR the past two seasons, seventh
among position players. FanGraphs isn't quite as high but still has him at 10.6
WAR, 12th among position players. This guy is one of the best players in the
game, but how often do you hear that? So let's amend an often said statement:
If only the Angels could build a playoff team around Mike Trout and Andrelton
Simmons.
TEXAS RANGERS
Jose Leclerc
Let's see, lowest batting average allowed in 2018 (minimum
20 innings): Jose Leclerc, .126.
Lowest slugging percentage allowed: Jose Leclerc, .194.
Highest strikeout rate: Josh Hader,
but Leclerc ranked eighth (38.1 percent)
Leclerc throws 95 mph, and his out pitch is a
splitter/slider -- Statcast records it as a slider, others as a splitter.
Whatever it is, hitters don't touch it. It could make Leclerc the game's next
great reliever.
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