As we’ve done in the past, the keys to the Pittsburgh
Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to
happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa. My
prediction is at the bottom.
THE STEELERS WILL
WIN IF…
1. THEY LIMIT YAC.
The Chiefs have too many YAC threats. Travis Kelce.
Kareem Hunt. And definitely Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs are going
to move the ball, their offense is too good, but even if the Steelers manage to
keep the ball in front of them, they have to rally and wrap up. One missed
tackle and look out, could be a long gain. To Keith Butler’s credit,
he’s done a nice job of that in recent matchups.
2. LESS MAN COVERAGE ON 3RD AND LONG.
One hidden issue last week was the downside to running more
man coverage than the Steelers have before. Tyrod Taylor has able
to break contain and with backs to the football, reel off big chunks of yardage
and convert on third down.
Patrick Mahomes isn’t quite that type of
scrambler, he’s much more of a threat with his arm, but I’m
curious if Butler will alter his script in Week Two. And hopefully decides
against rushing three.
The offense can run against base and nickel personnel. Like
I wrote in our scouting reports, the Chiefs have sorted out their ILB situation
better than in recent years. On paper, they can play the run more effectively,
though they still have to prove it on the field after allowing 5.6 YPC vs the
Chargers last week. But I want to see the Steelers show similar success as the
past, made a little harder without Le’Veon Bell and the low odds David
DeCastro plays.
THE STEELERS WILL
LOSE IF…
1. THEY DON’T PROPERLY CONTAIN PATRICK MAHOMES.
Again, one of the largest issues with the Steelers defense
last week. And like I wrote above, Mahomes is much more capable hurting you
with his arm and weapons around him. Can’t let him break contain and force the
defense to cover for 5-7 seconds. That’ll burn you sooner than later.
2. LINEBACKERS FAIL TO READ THEIR KEYS.
The defense has done a nice job not against KC but several
teams who love window dressing (Cleveland, Tennessee come to mind) in the
recent past. But one issue with Vince Williams and Jon
Bostic, even last week, was being vulnerable to some of the false keys and
“noise” Cleveland created. Some of that is expected, those are their keys and
that’s what most players would do, but it’s a good way to get linebackers out
of position and moving slow. With the speed on the Chiefs offense and ability
to reach the perimeter, they can gash the Steelers defense more than other
teams.
3. PITTSBURGH LOSES THE FIELD POSITION BATTLE. AGAIN.
Pretty obvious one that yes, you can apply to really any
team. It was an obvious issue last week, though six turnovers will certainly do
that to you. Steelers don’t need to give this Chiefs’ offense a shorter
field. Jordan Berry must play better too, clearly. The rain
can be used as an explanation, though not an excuse, but that only works for so
long.
PREDICTION: Chiefs: 31 Steelers: 20
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