THE PITTSBURGH PIRATES ARE POISED TO BE BASEBALL’S BIGGEST SURPRISE

Don’t look now, but the Pittsburgh Pirates might shock some people come 2019.

Sure, any were caught saying the same thing last season (and a few times in the past that look pretty bad in retrospect), when General Manager Neal Huntington surprised us all by compiling a major package to land Tampa Bay ace Chris Archer – three current or former Top 100 prospects (Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows, and Shane Baz). In addition, the Bucs also managed to nab Texas’s closer, Keone Kela. The moves were expected to help elevate a team on the margins firmly back into a closely contested Wild Card race.

In the end, the Pirates finished with an 82-79 record, well below that of a postseason-caliber club. Of even more concern were the struggles of Archer, who pitched to a 3-3 record and a 4.30 ERA, solid numbers but nowhere near ace level performance. A typically quiet offseason has left many prognosticators with the belief that another mediocre 4th place finish is on the horizon in the Steel City. However, the cupboard is far from bare when it comes to these Pirates.

On the mound is where Pittsburgh hopes to win most of their games.

STARTING PITCHING

The trio of Jameson Taillon (14-10, 3.20 ERA), Archer, and Trevor Williams (14-10, 3.11) should all be considered potential All-Stars for 2019. At the backend of the rotation, Joe Musgrove and Chad Kuhl both can give the Pirates consistency, while still having some room to grow. All in all, this may actually be the best rotation in the NL Central.

The Cubs are beset by both aging and injuries, the Cardinals have durability issues from everyone other than Miles Mikolas, and the Reds are coming off a year in which they gave up over 800 runs. As for the defending champion Brewers, it was clear in the postseason that the rotation was Milwaukee’s weakest link. The Bucs, on the other hand, have youth, potential, and, with the addition of Archer, experience on the mound.

If there is a team one of the NL’s elite lineups doesn’t want to face in October, it just might be the Pirates.

THE BULLPEN

Even more encouraging, the Pittsburgh bullpen is also poised to be one of the game’s better units. Although last year’s numbers would paint them as good-not-great (4.03 ERA via Fangraphs), the Pirates should see a boost in bullpen productivity with a full season of Kela, who continued to pitch at a high level following the midseason trade. Youngsters such as Kyle Crick and Richard Rodriguez should also do a good job of bridging the gap for All Star closer Felipe Vazquez. Those are four electric arms capable of keeping the leash short on the team’s stable of young starters.

While all the talk of run prevention is good, the concern for the Pirates, as it almost always is, comes from the lineup.

THE LINEUP

Starling Marte returns to lead a mediocre outfit for 2019. After him, the lineup is filled with question marks. 26-year old Gregory Polanco saw a surge in power numbers (23 HR), but also saw his batting average linger in the .250’s for the fourth straight year.

Francisco Cervelli remains one of the game’s better catchers, but it is clear his best days are gone. In the middle of the infield, longtime Bucs Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer have departed, with youngsters Erik Gonzalez and Adam Frazier set to take over full-time.

Even though there are some players either in decline or frustratingly inconsistent, the Pirates lineup has plenty of young players with potential. Josh Bell was a dark horse pick last offseason to reach the NL All Star team. Instead, he had a down year and wasn’t even worth 1 WAR. However, Bell is still just 25, and should be able to get his game back on track if he makes the proper adjustments.

Colin Moran, coming over from Houston in the Gerrit Cole trade, showed promise in his first full season, hitting .277.

Pittsburgh needs their hitters to make contact, as it is clear they won’t be in the league’s top half for home run hitting, but if last season carries over, the team has already shown an ability to lay off bad balls.

Pittsburgh’s K%, according to Fangraphs, was 20.3%, which was the NL’s best mark. If the Pirates can improve on their walks (7.8%, 22nd in MLB), the club could get on base at an extremely high rate, the key for any offense to find success in today’s game.

With what should be a top-flight pitching staff, and an offense capable of scoring just enough, the Pittsburgh Pirates enter 2019 as one of the league’s most underrated teams. Couple all that with one of the game’s savviest managers in Clint Hurdle, and you have all the ingredients needed for the Bucs to make some noise in a crowded NL Central race.