Sunday, July 22, 2018

MY AL EAST SECOND HALF PREVIEW


BOSTON RED SOX (68-30, 1ST PLACE, AL EAST)
BIG PICTURE: A fantastic first half, highlighted by the best 19-game start (17-2) in the franchise’s 118-year history, has earned the Red Sox the best record in baseball. They have a nice mix of youth and veteran players, a deep lineup and an outstanding closer. The addition of J.D. Martinez has had a tremendous impact on the clubhouse and offense, and he andMookie Betts are top candidates for American League MVP. Left-hander Chris Sale is always a Cy Young possibility.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Betts leads the majors with a .359 batting average, .691 slugging percentage and 1.139 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) and is among the leaders in several other categories.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: In his first season in Boston, Martinez is batting .328, leads the majors in RBI with 80 and is tied for the lead in home runs with 29. He has a 39-game home on base streak, the longest at Fenway Park in more than 10 years.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Boston needs left-hander David Price to be a solid No. 2. He is 10-6 with a 4.42 ERA but has a 9.20 ERA in his last three outings.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The Red Sox will be active buyers before the deadline. They must bolster the bullpen, especially with a left-hander, and could use some infield insurance with third baseman Rafael Devers sidelined because of a sore left shoulder.
KEY SERIES: vs. Yankees Sept. 28-30
NEW YORK YANKEES (62-33, 2ND PLACE, AL EAST)
BIG PICTURE: It took a few weeks for the big engine to get rolling, but once it did it has been steamrolling opponents on the way to a tremendous first half. The hype over the 1-2 punch of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton has lived up to expectations. The two are among the league leaders in home runs. The best bullpen in baseball shortens games better than any other team. The Yankees have a quality lineup that includes an excellent mix of youth and veterans. General manager Brian Cashman has done a masterful job of building his team for now and the long term, with flexibility to add payroll.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Right-hander Luis Severino (14-2, 2.31 ERA) is arguably the leading candidate for the American League Cy Young Award. He leads the majors in victories.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: The emergence of rookies: Gleyber Torres, the 21-year-old second baseman, and Miguel Andujar, the 23-yearold third baseman, has given the Yankees a spark. Torres, who is sidelined with a right hip strain, and Andujar enter the break leading AL rookies in several offensive categories.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Right-hander Sonny Gray is 6-7 with a 5.46 ERA but has an 8.25 ERA at home.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The Yankees are obvious buyers and need a quality starting pitcher. They have the pieces to make a big move.
KEY SERIES at Boston Red Sox Sept. 28-30
TAMPA BAY RAYS (49-47, 3RD PLACE, AL EAST)
BIG PICTURE: The Rays have been competitive despite trading away a lot of offense at the beginning of spring training and using an unorthodox rotation. While they have struggled to score runs, their relievers have successfully supplemented a rotation that at one point was down to two starters with a mix of “opening” pitchers (relievers who start the game). They have promoted several young players, including first baseman Jake Bauer sand infielder Willy Adames, and will continue to do so. Perhaps the best news for the Rays is that they unveiled plans for a new stadium.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Left-hander Blake Snell (12-5, 2.27 ERA) was named an All-Star in only his second full season in the majors.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: The Rays have been successful with their concept of “opening” pitchers. They have allowed a first-inning run once in their past 31 games, and their 2.81 first inning ERA leads the league.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Two-time Gold Glove center fielder
Kevin Kiermaier missed 57 games because of a torn ligament in his right thumb and is hitting .179.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST
The Rays sent closer Alex Colome and outfielder Denard Span to Seattle. All-Star catcher Wilson Ramos and righthander Nathan Eovaldi are marketable.
KEY SERIES: vs. New York Yankees July 23-25
TORONTO BLUE JAYS (43-52, 4TH PLACE, AL EAST)
BIG PICTURE: Toronto got off to a respectable start and remained on the heels of first-place Boston for the first few weeks. Since then, not much has gone right. The organization’s lack of depth combined with many key injuries, along with closer Roberto Osuna ’s suspension for domestic violence and catcher Russell Martin ’s season-long slump, have made for an abysmal first half.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Yangervis Solarte , acquired in January from San Diego in exchange for two minor leaguers to improve Toronto’s versatility, has played all four infield positions and has been the designated hitter. He leads Toronto in several batting stats.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: After starting the season at Class AAA Buffalo (N.Y.), Teoscar Hernandez already has appeared in a career-high 76 games, including 45 starts in left field.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Toronto signed third baseman Josh Donaldson to a one-year, $23 million contract in January, a record one-year deal for an arbitration-eligible player. He is on the disabled list for the second time and is hitting .234 with five home runs.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The Jays would like to be a seller but don’t have much to sell. Left-hander J.A. Happ, their best trading chip, struggled in his last three starts before the break.
KEY SERIES: vs. Boston Red Sox Aug. 7-9
BALTIMORE ORIOLES (28-69, 5TH PLACE, AL EAST)
BIG PICTURE: The Orioles could be in the worst shape of any team in the game. There appears to be a team wide malaise. The woeful hitting was unexpected, but the same can’t be said of the woeful pitching. The status of general manager Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter is uncertain, and both contracts are up at the end of the season.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Shortstop Manny Machado earned his fourth All-Star appearance but was expected to be traded to the Los Angeles Dodgers this week.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: The team that was among the major league leaders last season in home runs, hits, average, slugging percentage and total bases finds itself among the worst this year in many offensive categories.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: First baseman Chris Davis stands out among several under-producers. He is hitting .158 and is in the third year of a seven-year, $161 million contract.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: They will be active sellers with good chips on the table, including potential free agents Machado, closer Zach Britton, right-handed reliever Brad Brach and possibly center fielder Adam Jones.
KEY SERIES: vs. Red Sox July 23-25


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