Sunday, July 22, 2018

NL WEST SECOND HALF PREVIEW


LOS ANGELES DODGERS (53-43, 1ST PLACE, NL WEST)
BIG PICTURE: The Dodgers are again contending for the National League West title, which would be their sixth in a row, while drawing upon their extraordinary depth to offset significant injuries to four starting pitchers plus shortstop Corey Seager ’s season-ending elbow injury. Mindful of the tight division race, the franchise’s World Series championship drought dating to 1989 and the excellence of three American League clubs, the front office has been focused on acquiring impact talent, and the Dodgers were considered the front-runners to acquire Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Dodgers hitters combined for 55 home runs in June, a team record for a month, and went 17-9 to climb back into the race.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: Max Muncy became one of the most productive hitters in the big leagues one year after the Oakland Athletics released him. His 22 home runs in 225 at-bats showed off his excellent plate discipline.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Call it a near-tie between losing Seager in late April and Clayton Kershaw going on the disabled list twice.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The Dodgers figure to get a setup reliever and Baltimore was expected to trade shortstop Manny Machado to them at press time. Minnesota second baseman Brian Dozier also was a possibility.
KEY SERIES: vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Aug. 30-31, Sept. 1-2
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS (53-44, 2ND PLACE, NL WEST)
BIG PICTURE: Baseball in the desert is extra hard for pitchers and fielders, but less so for the Diamondbacks since a brain trust imported from Boston took over two seasons ago. A year after it led the league in ERA adjusted for ballpark, Arizona is back near the top of that category while again contending for a playoff spot. The D’backs are aces at run prevention despite losing one starting pitcher, Taijuan Walker , for the season and getting a whole lot less from No. 2 starter Robbie Rathan a season ago. The team’s pitchers praise the plans of strategist Dan Harem and an efficient defense.
BEST PERFORMANCE: All-Star Patrick Corbin logged a 3.24 ERA in 20 starts. The left-hander was even better than his ERA, posting excellent numbers that filter out defense.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: For the season’s first third,
Paul Goldschmidt batted .210 with 72 strikeouts in 200 at-bats. And yet Arizona was two games over .500.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Ray missed 10 starts because of a strained side muscle and has a 5.03 ERA.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST General manager Mike Hazen figures to add a reliever. He’s been showing enough interest in Baltimore Orioles shortstop Manny Machado to bid up the price the rival Los Angeles Dodgers or someone else might pay.
KEY SERIES: vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sept. 24-26
COLORADO ROCKIES (51-45, 3RD PLACE, NL WEST)
BIG PICTURE: They’re in the hunt for a playoff berth, and that counts for something. However, they underexploited favorable circumstances and now might need general manager Jeff Bridich to hit a home run in the trade market to stay relevant in the National League West race. The special opportunity came from a rotation that enjoyed phenomenal health and consistency despite the challenge of home games at high altitude. No pitcher missed a start until a healthy Jon Gray was demoted June 30. A shaky bullpen and a spotty offense had them below .500 until a hot streak before the break.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Kyle Freeland , a Denver product in his second season, pitched to a 3.11 ERA over 19 starts and allowed a .238 batting average. The astute lefty has given up two runs or fewer in his past six starts.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: It’s never shocking when a Rockies pitcher plummets, but the implosion of newcomer Bryan Shaw came after the reliever had logged good or great adjusted ERAs in all seven seasons, including two with the Diamondbacks and five with the Cleveland Indians.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Shaw stands out, but relievers Mike Dunn (9.00 ERA) and Jake McGee (6.15 ERA) also have been disappointing.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: Adding a catcher would make sense, especially if it’s a money deal.
KEY SERIES: at Arizona Diamondbacks July 20-22
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS (50-48, 4TH PLACE, NL WEST)
BIG PICTURE: The Giants have played much better than last season (not hard — they lost 98 games) but still don’t look like a strong contender because they have given up more runs than they have scored. The lineup got good results from shortstop Brandon Crawford and first baseman Brandon Belt. Rookie pitchers Dereck Rodriguez and Andrew Suarez blunted the long injury hiatuses of ace Madison Bumgarner and- Johnny Cueto.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Crawford, rebounding from a trying 2017, got off to a slow start but went on one of the best stretches of his career (he hit .412 in May and .326 in June). He is the National League’s starting shortstop in the All-Star Game and is on pace for his best offensive season while continuing his usual stellar defensive playing.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: Outfielder Gorkys Hernandez has 11 home runs in 260 at-bats a season after he hit zero in 310 at-bats. He began the year with five career home runs. His .778 OPS (on-base plus slugging percentage) is more than 100 points above his career mark.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Closer Hunter Strickland broke his pitching hand when he punched a door after his fourth blown save in 17 opportunities. He isn’t due back before August.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST Brian Sabean will target relievers.
KEY SERIES: vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Sept. 28-30
SAN DIEGO PADRES (40-59, 5TH PLACE, NL WEST)
BIG PICTURE: The Padres are headed for their 15th losing season in the 20 years since San Diegans voted to fund a new ballpark, largely with public money. In that span, the team has won no playoff series or a playoff game at home. The farm system is well-regarded, but the franchise MVP might be the combination of spiffy ballpark and San Diego’s attractions as a tourist city. Attendance has held steady.
BEST PERFORMANCE: Right-handed reliever Kirby Yates, 31, has allowed a run only four times in 39 appearances and has 48 strikeouts in 37 2 ⁄ 3innings.
BIGGEST SURPRISE: Christian Villanueva, a 27-year-old rookie, has 19 home runs, 15 of them coming before the end of May.
BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Injuries limited right fielder Wil Myers: to 10 games before June 21. He said he might have bulked up too much last offseason in anticipation of moving from first base to the outfield to make room for newcomer Eric Hosmer.
TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: Contenders will inquire about Yates and closer Brad Hand, who has 24 saves, in addition to right-handed starter Tyson Ross. The Padres will trade at least one pitcher. Developing relievers into standouts is a franchise strength, so the drop-off shouldn’t be overly concerning.
KEY SERIES: vs. Arizona Diamondbacks July 27-29





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