NL EAST SECOND HALF PREVIEW

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (53-42, 1ST PLACE, NL EAST)

BIG PICTURE: At the very least, the Phillies have shown they can end a string of five consecutive seasons with losing records. At best, they could return to the postseason for the first time since 2011. No matter what, they’ve shown themselves ready to move from rebuilding to contending. They’ve done it with talented young players such as Rhys Hoskins and Odubel Herrera in the lineup and with Aaron Nola developing into the ace the Phillies long hoped he could be. They’ve justified the late spring decision to invest $75 million in Jake Arrieta, who has pitched well and has been a leader.

BEST PERFORMANCE: Because Arrieta signed late in the spring, Nola was named the Phillies’ opening-day starter and went on to go 12-3 with a 2.30 ERA in 20 starts.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Seranthony Dominguez, who hadn’t pitched in the major leagues before this season, became the Phillies’ best reliever. He has a 1.60 ERA and nine saves.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Reliever Hector Neris lost the closer job and is in Class AAA for the second time this season.

TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The Phillies love Manny Machado, but it’s not clear how willing they will be to offer their top prospects for the Baltimore Orioles shortstop. They figure to add an infielder and/or a reliever.

KEY SERIES: vs. Atlanta Braves Sept. 28-30

ATLANTA BRAVES (52-42, 2ND PLACE, NL EAST)

BIG PICTURE: The Braves began the season hoping for improvement after three consecutive seasons of 90-plus defeats. Then they began the season 19-11 and moved into first place in the first week of May. Instead of talking about improvement, they began talking about playing in October, which at this point has to be a realistic goal for the second half. A young lineup has been sparked by Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr., and Freddie Freeman is one of the leading candidates for National League MVP. Freeman, Albies, Nick Markakis and righthander Mike Foltynewicz are All-Stars.

BEST PERFORMANCE: Freeman was off to an MVP-type start in 2017 before an Aaron Loup pitch shattered his left wrist in May. He had another MVP-type start this season, and he didn’t miss a game in the first half.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Markakis signed with the Braves in December 2014, just in time to be there for all the losing. Now he’s a big part of the winning and is an All-Star for the first time in his 13-year career. He is in the race for the National League batting title and could reach a career high in doubles.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Mike Soroka, 20, was far from disappointing, but a sore shoulder might prevent him from returning this season.

TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The Braves need help in the bullpen and maybe the rotation or at third base.

KEY SERIES: vs. Washington Nationals Sept. 14-16

WASHINGTON NATIONALS (48-48, 3RD PLACE, NL EAST)

BIG PICTURE: The Nationals were hit hard by injuries early, but as they got healthier they continued to underperform. After rallying to go 11 games over .500 and take over first place in the division in early June, they lost 17 of 22 to fall below .500 and a season-high seven games out of first place in early July. The focus is on Bryce Harper, who will be a free agent at the end of the season and has by far the lowest batting average (.214) of his career.

BEST PERFORMANCE: Max Scherzer has won the National League Cy Young Award the last two seasons, and nothing he did in the first half suggests he won’t win it again. He’s 12-5 with a 2.41 ERA, which is better than his winning numbers in 2016 and 2017.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: The Nationals had high hopes for 19year-old outfielder Juan Soto, but they never planned that a kid who began the season in low Class A would be in their major league outfield before the end of May and be hitting .301 with nine homers at the break. Soto got there because of injuries and his own strong performance at three levels of the minor leagues.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: The Nationals as a whole fit this category. It can’t be pinned on one player.

TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: Aggressive general manager Mike Rizzo acquired reliever Kelvin Herrera in June and figures to seek more help.

KEY SERIES: vs. Atlanta Braves July 20-22

MIAMI MARLINS (41-57, 4TH PLACE, NL EAST)

BIG PICTURE: This was always going to be a difficult season after the Derek Jeter- led Marlins traded Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon in the offseason. It didn’t help that catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Marlins’ best remaining player, began the season on the disabled list. It didn’t help that Martin Prado, their stabilizing veteran, spent more than a month on the DL because of a hamstring injury. Or that Caleb Smith, their most successful starting pitcher, was lost for the season in late June because of a lat strain that required surgery. Their 4-12 start was predictable.

BEST PERFORMANCE: Since his return, Realmuto has justified the Marlins’ belief that he could be their centerpiece going forward.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Brian Anderson took advantage of the Marlins’ decision to trade their 2017 outfield. He has been Miami’s second-best player behind Realmuto.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: The Marlins were thrilled to get South Florida product Lewis Brinson from the Milwaukee Brewers in the Yelich trade, but he struggled early before hitting .267 in June. Now he’s on the disabled list because of pain in his right hip.

TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The price will be exorbitant, but teams will call about Realmuto and top reliever: Kyle Barraclough.

KEY SERIES: at New York Mets Sept. 28-30

NEW YORK METS (39-55, 5TH PLACE, NL EAST)

BIG PICTURE: Remember when the Mets began the season 11-1? Almost nothing has gone right since then, except for Jacob de-Grom pitching like an ace (but still not winning). In addition to losing games, the Mets lost their general manager when Sandy Alderson had to take a leave of absence to be treated for cancer. His three top assistants are in charge for the rest of the season, hoping they can find a way to make sure future years go better than this one has. It would help if they could get their highest-paid player back. Yoenis Cespedes hasn’t played since May 13 because of a hip injury.

BEST PERFORMANCE: Normally, a 1.68 ERA in 19 starts would result in a lot of victories, but deGrom is 5-4 because of a lack of run support.

BIGGEST SURPRISE: Brandon Nimmo began the season without a spot in the outfield, but he has been the Mets’ best offensive player.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT: Outfielder Jay Bruce, who signed a three-year, $39 million contract in the offseason, has three home runs and is out because of a strained right hip.

TRADE-DEADLINE FORECAST: The Mets could shake up the entire trade market if they showed much willingness to discuss deGrom. They are more likely to move closer Jeurys Familia and infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, both free agents at the end of the season.

KEY SERIES: vs. Atlanta Braves Aug. 2-5