CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL

OKLAHOMA (12-1) VS. ALABAMA (13-0)

LINE: Alabama by 14

BOWL FACTS

DATE: Dec. 29 

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN 

SITE: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

SURFACE: Grass

LAST SEASON: WISCONSIN 34, MIAMI (FLA.) 24

The Badgers become the first team in school history to win 13 games, following up their only loss of the season (to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game) with a resounding win. Quarterback Alex Hornibrook completes 23 of 34 pass attempts for 258 yards and four touchdowns, with freshman Danny Davis catching three of them. Wisconsin’s defense forces three turnovers and limits Miami to 10 points over the final three quarters.

NOW TO THIS YEAR

Tide’s offense as potent as Sooners’ From Johnny Manziel in 2012 through Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham a year ago, the quarterbacks who have defeated Alabama in the past seven seasons of the Crimson Tide’s dynasty were mobile passers centered in a tempo based offense. Even the somewhat forgettable outliers among a list of notable names — such as former Mississippi quarterback Bo Wallace, for example — were able to stress Alabama’s vaunted defense through the air and on the ground.

Its long been the not-so-secret recipe for toppling the dominant program in the sport: Build an offense that goes fast and find yourself a dual-threat quarterback. It sounds easier than it really is. Yet the blueprint still exists.

And here comes Kyler Murray. The Oklahoma junior has put together one of the great regular seasons by a quarterback in Football Bowl Subdivision history, with 4,053 yards passing and 892 yards on the ground with a combined 51 touchdowns. He’s averaging 11.9 yards per pass attempt. He’s picking up 7.3 yards per carry. He’s tossed multiple touchdowns in every game but one.

Simply put, Murray is the sort of quarterback who historically has found and exploited the Crimson Tide’s weak point on defense. For all of the hubbub over Oklahoma’s ability to replace or even approach Baker Mayfield’s impact as a senior, Murray has managed to not only match Mayfield’s statistical output but exceed it.

The fourth-seeded Sooners should worry No. 1 Alabama, but only to a point. In the past, when the Tide were nearly flawless defensively but more traditional on offense, the specter of facing off against Oklahoma’s explosive offense would be a major concern. But this isn’t the Alabama of even the recent past — offensively; this Alabama team is by far the best of Nick Saban’s tenure with the program.

Oklahoma ranks first in the Football Bowl Subdivision in averaging 8.8 yards per play. In second? That would be the Crimson

Tide at 7.9 yards per play. Both teams dwarf third-place Clemson, which averages 7.4 yards per snap. In other words, the idea that Murray and Oklahoma can simply outscore Alabama is inaccurate, since the Tide could very well do the same to the Sooners.

Plenty of attention has been paid to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Heisman Trophy leader for much of the regular season. He capped the regular season with 3,353 yards passing on 11.4 yards per attempt with 37 touchdowns, carving up every defense in his path until struggling with Georgia in the Southeastern Conference championship game. But the heavy focus paid to the sophomore has overshadowed a complete effort from every piece of the Alabama offense.

Left tackle Jonah Williams has been outstanding. The running back trio of Damien Harris, Najee Harris and Josh Jacobs has combined for 1,945 yards and 22 touchdowns. Five Alabama receivers made at least 30 receptions, and each averaged at least 17 yards per catch. From top to bottom, Alabama’s offense has been the catalyst behind one of the more dominant regular seasons in recent FBS history.

Before, Alabama had to rely on its defense to slow down the tempo and its offense to do just enough to squeeze out a high scoring win. In 2018, the Tide have shown the explosiveness on offense and the strength on defense to go toe-to-toe with any opponent, even one with Oklahoma’s firepower.

Given the Sooners’ issues on defense, it’s Oklahoma that should be worried.

CAPITAL ONE ORANGE BOWL

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

WHEN ALABAMA RUNS: Alabama’s running backs got too little credit for the work they did during the regular season. Three backs will see the field against OU, led by senior Damien Harris. Look for the Tide to pound away and find holes through the middle.

EDGE: Alabama 

WHEN ALABAMA PASSES: Here’s another area where Alabama will have a major edge, especially if Tua Tagovailoa shows no lingering issues with the ankle injury that sidelined him in the second half against Georgia and required surgery. Oklahoma is tied for last in the country in passing yards allowed per game.

 EDGE: Alabama 

WHEN OKLAHOMA RUNS: The Sooners rank second nationally in yards per carry while Alabama ranks 16th in yards allowed per carry. But the Tide have improved since the start of October and seem ready to at least slow down the Sooners’ powerful ground attack. 

EDGE: Alabama 

WHEN OKLAHOMA PASSES: Alabama might try, but there’s really no stopping Kyler Murray through the air. The key will be preventing the big plays that have come to define the Sooners’ passing game. The Tide might slow Murray down but they won’t shut him down. 

EDGE: Oklahoma

SPECIAL TEAMS: Both teams have been great in the return game. Oklahoma might be a touch more explosive, but it’s essentially a wash. Where the Sooners have an edge is in the kicking game, particularly at punter. Field position will matter with these offenses.

EDGE: Oklahoma

 COACHING: Nick Saban isn’t just the best coach in college football but one of the very best in history. Lincoln Riley is joining an elite club of college coaches, but nobody can sniff what Saban brings.

EDGE: Alabama Paul Myerberg