Saturday, December 29, 2018

MY NFL WEEK 17 PREVIEW


Multiple playoff berths are on the line in Week 17, and plenty of teams are still playing for positioning. The Steelers, at one time 7-2-1 and in total command of the AFC North, now need to beat the Bengals and hope Cleveland tops Baltimore, or they'll be on the outside looking in. For the Ravens, its win and they're in, and the Titans and Colts will also play in a virtual playoff game on Sunday night. Seeding is what's mostly at stake in the NFC, but the defending champion Eagles could still sneak into the playoffs at Minnesota's expense, and the Vikings don't have a picnic, as the NFC North champion Bears are visiting, with designs on a first-round bye if they win and the Niners upset the Rams. Let's take a look at all the action in Week 17. 
MIAMI DOLPHINS AT BUFFALO BILLS
SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (CBS)
The Dolphins have the better record of the two teams, but they feel like a group going nowhere. It'll always be something in South Florida, be it injuries to Ryan Tannehill or a general lack of performance or talent. The Dolphins and their fans perhaps think that the division might open up sooner rather than later if the Patriots finally start to trend downward on a more permanent basis, but if Josh Allen develops the way the Bills think he will, and are hoping he will, Miami fans may find themselves looking up at a different team in the standings. Allen is the team's leading rusher, but that's not a trend that Buffalo wants to see continue. Allen's legs must be a supplement to his arm, and that part is still a work in progress. He has seven passing touchdowns against 11 interceptions. Allen's arm strength and deep-ball prowess is acknowledged, but he has only completed 52 percent of his passes this year, nowhere near good enough. If he makes a big leap in year two, the Bills, whose defense is second in the league in yards allowed this year, could surprise.
ATLANTA FALCONS AT TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)
Tampa Bay's Achilles' heel has been the turnover. The Bucs have given up the ball 34 times this season, worst in the NFL. Jameis Winston and Ryan Fitzpatrick have been just about equal in terms of culpability; Winston has 13 interceptions on the year, and Fitzpatrick has 12. That's an especially big problem given that the Bucs are still trying to figure out their quarterback situation. Winston still hasn't done anything to make anyone think he's the long-term answer, so it might be back to the drawing board for Tampa Bay. The Falcons would no doubt love to end the season on a three-game winning streak, but if they do, they'll be lamenting a bad start and an awful middle of their year, one that included a five-game losing streak. Injuries killed the Falcons' chances this year, and assuming they come back healthy for 2019, perhaps having added another impact defender in the draft, they'll be a tough out in the NFC South.
DALLAS COWBOYS AT NEW YORK GIANTS
SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)
Dallas has proved to be one resilient team this year. Jason Garrett was under fire and the Cowboys stumbled to a 3-5 start, but they've gone 6-1 since, and their defense and running game, as well as the presence of Amari Cooper, makes them an interesting variable in what should be fascinating NFC playoffs. The Cowboys can't get a first-round bye, so it stands to reason that they'll rest some starters in this one. Whether or not they are willing to call more designed runs for Dak Prescott in the postseason might determine how far they can go. The Giants, meanwhile, will look to figure out their quarterback situation and try to find more reinforcements for Saquon Barkley, who too often was a one-man band this season. A good game from Barkley should get him over the 2,000-yard mark in terms of yards from scrimmage this season, but one imagines that the Giants would rather him not have to touch the ball over 350 times a season, though many of those touches were in the 
CAROLINA PANTHERS AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)
Carolina's season has completely cratered, and Cam Newton has already been shut down. The Saints have nothing to play for, as their thrilling win over the Steelers ensured that the road to the Super Bowl in the NFC will go through the Superdome. So, if you like backups, perhaps this is the game for you. There are a few individual talents worth mentioning here. Michael Thomas has been nothing short of spectacular for New Orleans all season long, and his 120 catches on 140 targets is an astonishingly high success rate. Christian McCaffrey broke Matt Forte's single-season record for receptions by a running back, and he has a chance to add to his total of 106 in this game. If McCaffrey has a decent outing, he'll also top 2,000 yards from scrimmage on the year. Carolina has to be left wondering what happened to a season that seemed so flush with promise when it was 6-2 and preparing to take on the Steelers in a Thursday night showdown. The Panthers haven't won since, dropping seven straight games. If Newton is healthy next year, though, they should be back as a force.
NEW YORK JETS AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (CBS)
The Pats don't have Josh Gordon anymore, Tom Brady has a knee injury of some severity, according to most reports — though Brady and the Pats claim it is "100 percent" — Rob Gronkowski is not his usual self and New England is flat-out bad on the road. That said, they're unbeaten at home, and a win here, coupled with losses by the Chiefs and Chargers, and would improbably give them home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. With Kansas City taking on Oakland and the Chargers playing Denver, that's unlikely, but it's still on the table. However, a mere win with no outside help would clinch the AFC's second seed for Bill Belichick. Sam Darnold is coming off his best game as a pro, despite the fact that it came in a losing effort. Darnold threw three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Packers, and New York's hopes for the future rest squarely on his shoulders. A strong game against New England would be a nice building-block experience for the future.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS AT HOUSTON TEXANS
SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (CBS)
The Texans are still in play for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, but they would need to win and have the Patriots, Chiefs and Chargers all lose, which seems like asking a bit much, frankly. Still, the Texans will get at least one home game as champions of the AFC South, and if the bracket breaks their way, they could be a formidable out. Houston's rush defense is the best in the league, but its secondary leaves something to be desired. That secondary won't get a good workout against a Jaguars team that has no passing game to speak of, no clear path at quarterback and a host of problems all connected to the fact that they can't play offense in any sort of consistent, competitive way. Blake Bortles is a lame duck, Leonard Fournette was hurt much of the year and unimpressive for large chunks of time even when healthy and it's obvious that the Jags defense has contempt for the offense. No team would benefit more from an upgrade at quarterback than the Jaguars, but whether or not they'll get one remains to be seen.
DETROIT LIONS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS
SUNDAY, 1 P.M. ET (FOX)
This battle of NFC North foes features a team in Green Bay that needs to figure out its future and one in Detroit still trying to create the same thing. It's likely that things are brighter for the Packers in the immediate term, primarily because they have Aaron Rodgers and the Lions don't, but if Detroit can figure out a way to bottle its performances against New England and these very same Packers from earlier in the season, they could be interesting. Still, it seems like an uphill climb for Lions head coach Matt Patricia, given the apparent strength of the NFC North. Chicago looks poised to be great for a long time, the Vikings are balanced and Green Bay will almost certainly be back with a vengeance in 2019. Assuming Green Bay finds the right coach, the combination of Rodgers and Davante Adams should be phenomenal for several years to come. Adams may top 120 catches and 1,500 yards this season and has emerged as one of the league's top-tier wide receivers this year, after never topping 75 receptions or going over 1,000 yards in any of his previous four seasons.
CLEVELAND BROWNS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (CBS)
In an ironic twist, the entire city of Pittsburgh will have a keen eye on this game and will be rooting hard for Baker Mayfield and the Browns. The Ravens' situation is simple — they win and they're in. The Ravens' remarkable turnaround has been enough to save John Harbaugh's job, as Baltimore is working on an extension for him. That he's managed all of this while having to turn to Lamar Jackson under center and completely reinvent the Ravens offense on the fly is a testament to his abilities. Normally, a win over the Browns would be a foregone conclusion, but this Cleveland team is vastly different from previous iterations. Mayfield has transformed the franchise, and Gregg Williams has a 5-2 record as interim head coach. Cleveland has playmakers on defense, promising complementary pieces on offense like Nick Chubb and, most of all, something of an identity forming. But for some bad work in the kicking game, the Browns easily could be a playoff team, and they have plenty of motivation to finish with a winning record after going 1-31 the previous two years.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES AT WASHINGTON REDSKINS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (FOX)
The Eagles have the look of a team that could be a real problem, provided they actually make the playoffs. The path for Philly is pretty simple — win against Washington and hope that the Vikings come up short against the Bears. The Eagles have a few things going for them. First, Nick Foles looks like 2017 Nick Foles, and that guy won a Super Bowl for the team. Second, the Bears actually have something to play for, namely a possible first-round bye, so they'll be highly motivated to beat the Vikings for that, and just to ruin their season. Foles scorched the Texans' suspect pass defense and led the Eagles on a gut-check, game-winning field-goal drive last week, but he should have at least a somewhat tougher time against a Washington defense that rates as considerably better against the pass. The problem for Washington, of course, is offense. Specifically, quarterback. There was no Foles riding to the rescue when Alex Smith got hurt, and especially not after Colt McCoy went down. If Philly scores 20 points, it feels like a safe assumption that it'll win.
OAKLAND RAIDERS AT KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (CBS)
The Chiefs still need to win this game to clinch home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs, and that's bad news for a Raiders team that managed to rise up and upset the Broncos in what might have been their last game in Oakland. The Chiefs have received excellent production from Damien Williams in his two games as a starter, and Oakland's run defense is porous, to say the least. The Chiefs can't afford to mess around in this one, so an all-business effort should be expected. The Raiders probably don't have much left in the tank, as it stands to reason that they would be emotionally drained coming off last week's win. One potentially troubling sign for Kansas City is this: It is 9-0 against non-playoff teams and only 2-4 against teams who would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. That's a troubling trend, and one that might foretell a short stay in the postseason, unless Kansas City finds a way to be a little bit better on the defensive side.
CHICAGO BEARS AT MINNESOTA VIKINGS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (FOX)
There is still plenty at stake for the Bears in this game. A win coupled with a Rams loss to San Francisco would give the Bears the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the accompanying first-round bye. It would also put the Vikings in a precarious position, needing an Eagles loss to maintain their sixth seed. Chicago has been one of the biggest surprises in the league this year, its success fueled by an efficient offense and an opportunistic defense that ranks first in the league with 36 takeaways. The Bears forced three turnovers the first time these teams met, but that game was in Chicago, and the Vikings weren't quite as desperate as they will be for this one. Chicago's main vulnerability is its rushing offense. If the run is taken away and Mitch Trubisky is forced to win games, the Bears can be had. That is not to say that Trubisky isn't capable — his 96.0 passer rating is perfectly solid. But he's still not far enough along to where he can be counted on to deliver an excellent performance each week. Minnesota needs its running game, trending upward of late, to be great.
CINCINNATI BENGALS AT PITTSBURGH STEELERS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (CBS)
The Steelers let one slip away despite playing a mostly excellent game in New Orleans, and now they find themselves on the outside looking in on the AFC playoff chase. Mike Tomlin's team needs a win here and a Cleveland victory over the Ravens to qualify for the postseason, and fortunately for them, the Bengals appear to have packed things in for the year. Jeff Driskel inspires absolutely no one, and though the Bengals will no doubt want to play spoiler, it's hard to imagine them pulling a repeat of last year, where a victory in Baltimore kept the Ravens out of the playoffs. Even Cincy's usual shenanigans against the Steelers could be muted on account of the game being in Pittsburgh. The Steelers will undoubtedly try to put this one away early, and the dynamic duo of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster should be enough to overwhelm Marvin Lewis' ragtag bunch. The Bengals are 1-6 in their last seven, but that probably won't be enough to put Lewis' job at peril.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS AT DENVER BRONCOS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (CBS)
The Chargers missed out on a big opportunity to grab the top position in the AFC — they had no answers for the Ravens last Saturday night. Still, there is plenty at stake for Los Angeles, though admittedly, the prospect of the Chiefs losing to Oakland, which, coupled with an L.A. win would give the Chargers the AFC's top seed, is unlikely. The Chargers have been pretty consistent all year, but if there is one element of their game that perhaps could use some work, it's their running attack. Baltimore shut them down, and before that, they had been something of a mixed bag, though it didn't seem to affect Philip Rivers' play in any tangible, negative way. Still, more balance would go a long way for a team that will be picked by many to come out of the Wild Card Round and win the conference. Winning this game would be a statement, as the Broncos, despite their flaws and the likelihood that Vance Joseph is out as head coach, are still a tough out at home. Seeing Melvin Gordon and Keenan Allen both look sharp would be a boon for the Bolts as well.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS AT LOS ANGELES RAMS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (FOX)
No team has gone from prohibitive favorite to possible one-and-done faster than the Rams. They look out of sync on offense, and even a thrashing of the woeful Cardinals couldn't have done much to ease the fears of the faithful. If Jared Goff is right and Todd Gurley is healthy, it is conceivable that Los Angeles could right the ship in a hurry and in emphatic fashion. If they aren't, the Rams could very well lose to a game Niners team that no doubt wants to spring a major upset on their division rival. San Francisco has been feisty the last three weeks, going 2-1, including an overtime upset of Seattle. Thing is, all three of those games have been at home, and this one isn't. Nick Mullens has played well enough to at least open some eyes around the league about his prospects as a long-term backup, though if he pulls a shocker here, his stock will rise considerably. He'll have to deal with Aaron Donald, newly in possession of the single-season sack record for an interior lineman, and that's not a pleasant experience for just about any opposing quarterback.
ARIZONA CARDINALS AT SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
SUNDAY, 4:25 P.M. ET (FOX)
Arizona is one of many teams seemingly playing out the string, and as of this moment, the Cardinals would have the top pick in next year's draft. Outside of Chandler Jones, the Cards don't have an elite pass-rusher, but Nick Bosa would change that in a hurry and make their defense much more fearsome. Their real problem on that side of the ball is against the run, however, which makes the Seahawks an absolutely terrible opponent. No team is more committed to the ground game than Seattle, and arguably no team is better at it, either. The Seahawks don't have anything to play for, as they'll enter the playoffs as the five or six seed in the NFC, but that still isn't a good reason to pick against them. No matter who they sit, the Seahawks should be able to run the ball with impunity. Pete Carroll has claimed that he won't rest his starters, but if they handle Arizona like they should, they might find themselves sitting most of the second half.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS AT TENNESSEE TITANS
SUNDAY, 8:20 P.M. ET (NBC)
What better way to end the regular season than with a de facto playoff game? The stakes here are simple: The winner qualifies for the playoffs, and the loser does not. The only doomsday scenario for both teams involves a tie, which, coupled with a Steelers win, would send both packing and Pittsburgh to the playoffs. Indy is the hotter team of the two, having won eight of nine, but the Titans are winners of four in a row and have home-field advantage on their side. The crowd should be boisterous, and the key matchup is obvious. Can the Colts rush defense, which ranks sixth in the league in yards per carry allowed, slow down Derrick Henry, who has resembled a runaway freight train in recent weeks? Whichever team wins that particular battle will most likely win the game and the playoff berth that comes with it. That having been said, one imagines that the rest of the AFC will be rooting for the Titans, because everyone knows what Andrew Luck is capable of if he gets a seat at the table.

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