MY BIGGEST SURPRISES AND DISAPPOINTMENTS FROM 2018 NFL SEASON

I think I know it all, and then the NFL season happens. Here's a look at my biggest surprises and disappointments, both players and teams, from the 2018 NFL season.

SURPRISE: JAMES CONNER, RB, PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Le'Veon Bell was supposed to remain Pittsburgh's bell cow back, but someone else had to step up after Bell's holdout dragged on. That someone was 2017 third-round pick Conner. The Pitt alum has run for 909 yards and added 467 yards receiving with 13 touchdowns in 12 games. It would be a stretch to say the Steelers offense didn't skip a beat, but Conner certainly filled in nicely.

DISAPPOINTMENT: ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons are just two years removed from their Super Bowl LI debacle in which the Patriots closed a 28-3 deficit to win, and now they will miss the playoffs in 2018. Injuries played a big role, with Devonta Freeman, Keanu Neal and Deion Jones missing significant time. But that doesn't fully explain the offense's inability to score 20 points in six games. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian could take the fall if the offense doesn't show a spark over the final two weeks of the season.

SURPRISE: CHICAGO BEARS

Chicago won the NFC North and made the playoffs for the first time since 2010, and all it took was the hiring of head coach Matt Nagy, apparently. That's a simplistic view and overlooks the additions of Khalil Mack, Allen Robinson and Trey Burton, as well as huge improvements from Mitchell Trubisky, Tarik Cohen and Eddie Jackson. But Nagy's impact after the team finished 5-11 last season is clear.

DISAPPOINTMENT: BLAKE BORTLES, QB, JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Jacksonville got to the AFC Championship last year and came close to knocking off the Patriots, and it hoped to go a step further after re-signing Bortles. After going 3-8 as a starter, the Jaguars finally benched their former first-round pick, and his days as a starter are probably over.

SURPRISE: JARED COOK, TE, OAKLAND RAIDERS

After adding Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, Cook looked like he might lose attention in Jon Gruden's offense. Instead, he's been the team's one reliable receiver, and that includes Amari Cooper before he was traded to Dallas. The veteran tight end is having a career year in a disappointing Raiders offense, with 63 catches for 848 yards and six touchdowns through 14 games.

DISAPPOINTMENT: DEREK CARR, QB, OAKLAND RAIDERS

One of Jon Gruden's biggest priorities when he was given a 10-year contract with the Raiders was to fix Carr. While Carr does have a career-best 68.3 completion rate, the Raiders offense has sputtered overall and the relationship between Gruden and his quarterback has seemed rocky. Carr's QBR through 14 games is his worst since 2015, and there's speculation the team could try to move on from him following the season.

SURPRISE: TYLER BOYD, WR, CINCINNATI BENGALS

A.J. Green has been the go-to player in the Bengals passing game since 2011, and Cincinnati drafted wideout John Ross in the first round in 2017. However, neither wide receiver is close to leading the team in receiving yards. Boyd has emerged as an elite wideout this season, as the third-year pro out of Pitt has 76 receptions for 1,028 yards and seven scores through 14 games.

DISAPPOINTMENT: CAROLINA PANTHERS

It's been another disappointing year for the Panthers, who are likely to miss the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. The defense has really struggled after losing its second defensive coordinator in as many seasons to a head coaching job, and Cam Newton, who could be shut down for the rest of the season with a shoulder injury, hasn't been able to regain his 2015 MVP form.

SURPRISE: EDDIE JACKSON, S, CHICAGO BEARS

Khalil Mack gets much of the attention for Chicago's dominant offense, but the emergence of Jackson also has played a huge role. The second-year safety has been a huge steal after going in the fourth round, and he has three touchdowns and six picks in 14 games.

DISAPPOINTMENT: KIRK COUSINS, QB, MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Minnesota fell just short of the Super Bowl last year, and the switch from Case Keenum to Cousins was supposed to be the missing piece. Unfortunately, the Vikings have regressed this year overall, and Cousins has failed to spring the organization forward. He's been above average with 3,913 yards passing and 26/10 TD/INT in 14 games, but the offense is on pace to fall well short of its 382 points scored last season.

SURPRISE: CHRIS JONES, DE, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Aaron Donald gets most of the attention as the most dominant lineman in football, and rightfully so, but Jones hasn't been far behind him this year. The Chiefs big defensive end currently has a streak of 10 straight games with a sack, giving him 14 sacks in 14 games. While the Chiefs defense has played poorly overall, Jones and the rest of the Chief's past rushers have made that part of the team a strength.

DISAPPOINTMENT: JOE FLACCO, QB, BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore added major weapons for Flacco this offseason, including Michael Crabtree, John Brown, Willie Snead and Hayden Hurst. All of the additions were to help Flacco, who has failed to lead the team to the playoffs in three straight seasons. But he barely showed improvement in a 4-5 start before injuring his hip. It looks like first-round pick Lamar Jackson will finish out the regular season as the starter, and Flacco will be looking for a starting job elsewhere this offseason.

SURPRISE: GEORGE KITTLE, TE, SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

A fifth-round pick last year, Kittle had a solid rookie season with 515 yards receiving. He's become an absolute star in his second year despite inconsistent quarterback play in San Francisco, now with 72 receptions for 1,154 yards and four touchdowns in 14 games.

DISAPPOINTMENT: GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Packers could blame their struggles last year on Aaron Rodgers' collarbone injury, but there was no convenient excuse this year. The team fired head coach Mike McCarthy after a 4-7-1 start and is set to miss the playoffs for the second consecutive season.

SURPRISE: PHILLIP LINDSAY, RB, DENVER BRONCOS

The Broncos drafted Royce Freeman in the third round, but it was an undrafted rookie who emerged as their starting running back. Lindsay overtook Freeman and has been a star in his rookie campaign, with 1,221 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns in 14 games. The Denver native has averaged an amazing 5.4 yards per carry.

DISAPPOINTMENT: CASE KEENUM, QB, DENVER BRONCOS

Denver had a major headache at quarterback last season between Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch but thought Keenum might be the answer after taking the Vikings to the NFC Championship last year. He's been a clear upgrade but not nearly good enough, leading the Broncos to a 6-8 record through 14 games with just 15/12 TD/INT.

SURPRISE: DARIUS LEONARD, LB, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The 36th overall pick in this year's draft, Leonard has already become one of the top linebackers in the league for a surprising Colts defense. He leads the league with 146 tackles and has added seven sacks in his 13 games played.

DISAPPOINTMENT: ELI MANNING, QB, NEW YORK GIANTS

New York held off on drafting a quarterback with the second overall draft pick, instead taking running back Saquon Barkley to add to Odell Beckham Jr., Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. Unfortunately, Manning has been the clear weak link in the Giants offense, with a sub-50 QBR for the third straight year. The Giants could finally move on from their longtime quarterback after this season.

SURPRISE: ANDREW LUCK, QB, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

After missing all of last season with a shoulder injury, many had tempered expectations for Luck. Instead, he's a legitimate MVP candidate and has the Colts in the thick of the AFC playoff race at 8-6. He had a string of eight straight games with at least three touchdown passes earlier this season and has 34 touchdowns in 14 games for the year.

DISAPPOINTMENT: PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Even after a shocking Week 15 win at the Rams, Philadelphia is 7-7 and unlikely to make the playoffs after winning the Super Bowl last year. Carson Wentz didn't return to his 2017 form after coming back from a torn ACL and also suffering a back injury, while the offensive line and defense also have clearly regressed.

SURPRISE: PATRICK MAHOMES, QB, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

The likely NFL MVP, Mahomes has performed beyond anyone's wildest dreams in his first full season as a starter. The Chiefs quarterback leads the league in passing yards (4,543) and touchdown passes (45) through 14 games and has his team positioned for a Super Bowl run despite a mediocre defense.

DISAPPOINTMENT: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The 49ers closed out last year winning six of their last seven games, including five in a row with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Unfortunately, injuries ended the team's chances in 2018. New running back Jerick McKinnon hurt his knee in training camp, and Garoppolo did the same in Week 3. The team has now lost double-digit games for the fourth straight season.

SURPRISE: LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH, LB, DALLAS COWBOYS

The 19th overall pick in the draft out of Boise State, Vander Esch has even exceeded the Cowboys expectations in his rookie season. Emerging as a starter after Sean Lee got injured, Vander Esch has 117 tackles and two picks in what has become one of the top run-stopping defenses in the NFL.

DISAPPOINTMENT: MATTHEW STAFFORD, QB, DETROIT LIONS

The Lions hired Matt Patricia as their head coach in the offseason but kept the offense intact with offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter. However, the offense has seen a huge regression this season, and Stafford's play is one of the biggest reasons. The quarterback has just 3,395 yards passing and 19 touchdowns in 14 games for a 5-9 Lions team.

SURPRISE: ROBERT WOODS, WR, LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Rams acquired Brandin Cooks, who was supposed to take over as the No. 1 receiving option on the team, but Woods has been neck-and-neck on the stats sheet all season. Woods has 78 receptions for 1,106 yards, adding five touchdowns in 14 games.

DISAPPOINTMENT: JAMEIS WINSTON, QB, TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

It's been a make-or-break year for Winston after being suspended for the first three games of the season for off-field transgressions. And his fourth season has been disappointing. Winston was benched briefly for Ryan Fitzpatrick and has just 14/13 TD/INT in nine games, strengthening his already poor reputation for taking care of the ball.