Saturday, December 29, 2018

GOODYEAR COTTON BOWL CLASSIC


CLEMSON (13-0) VS. NOTRE DAME (12-0)
LINE: Clemson by 13
BOWL FACTS
DATE: Dec. 29 
TV: 4 p.m. ET, ESPN 
SITE: AT& T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
SURFACE: Artificial turf
LAST SEASON: OHIO STATE 24, SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA 7
At the scene of their national championship three seasons go, the Buckeyes, who this time missed out of the College Football Playoff, score 21 points off turnovers. Junior cornerback Damon Webb has a fumble recovery on the third play of the game, leading to quarterback J.T. Barrett’s 1-yard run. Webb’s 23-yard interception return off a Sam Darnold pass for a touchdown puts Ohio State up 17-0 early in the second quarter, and the romp is on.
NOW TO THIS YEAR
Tigers will put Irish to ultimate test. Clemson’s road to the College Football Playoff was paved by the September decision to swap entrenched starter Kelly Bryant with backup Trevor Lawrence, a true freshman.
Notre Dame’s road to the playoff was paved by the September decision to swap entrenched starter Brandon Wimbush with backup Ian Book, a lightly used junior.
Perhaps you’re sensing a theme. For both teams — one that expected to be here, the other that hoped to reach this point — a berth in the Cotton Bowl was rooted in a decision to shift quarterbacks nearly midstream and hand the reins to an untested backup.
The decisions look brilliant in hindsight. Sold as a once-in-awhile sort of quarterback talent as a five-star recruit, Lawrence has more than lived up to his advance billing. He enters the postseason with 24 touchdown passes against four interceptions, with only two turnovers coming since he was named the starter in September.
By comparison, Book was an under-recruited prospect not pegged for greatness upon his arrival on campus. But he’s been equally effective: Book has thrown for 19 touchdowns while completing more than 70 percent of his attempts since making his own move into the lineup in September. He played his best in the season’s final month, with six touchdowns against two interceptions in must-win games against Northwestern, Syracuse and Southern California.
That neither Lawrence nor Book has faced the sort of pressure inherent to a playoff game makes it difficult to predict how each will fare on college football’s biggest stage. In a broader sense, however, that Clemson has been here before — four years in a row, in fact — is a major asset.
The Tigers know how to map out the weeks between the announcement and the game itself and how remain focused on the matchup amid the glitz and glamour of the playoffs. Notre Dame hasn’t played for a national championship since 2012, when it was handled by Alabama in one of the final pairings of the Bowl Championship Series era. To not pay attention to Clemson’s familiarity with this sort of moment would be to ignore a factor in the Tigers’ corner.
Another asset is Clemson’s defensive line. Notre Dame has matched up well with strong defensive fronts, as in the win against Michigan to open the season, but the Tigers’ front of Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence, Austin Bryant and Clelin Ferrell will present a different test. Much like Lawrence, this group has more than delivered on its preseason promise. The onus will be on Notre Dame’s offensive line to keep Book clean in the pocket, and this line has done a steady job in pass protection all season.
The matchup of Clemson’s defensive line against Notre Dame’s offense is emblematic of the larger view of the Cotton Bowl. Clemson is a double-digit favorite; the Irish continue to be underdogs in the championship race. Meanwhile, Notre Dame’s track record since September tells the story of a team that matches up well with every opponent, whether with Michigan’s physicality or Syracuse’s high-powered offense. In other words, the Irish resemble a team that is far stronger than the sum of its parts.
The Irish need to at least play to a draw in the battle along the line of scrimmage. Likewise in turnover margin, where the Irish could stand to be in the black. The running game needs to click. Book needs to deliver on time. These aren’t unreachable goals. When it comes to the Cotton Bowl, the biggest difference might come in Clemson’s room for error.
WHO HAS THE EDGE?
WHEN CLEMSON RUNS: Notre Dame’s defense has held ranked opponents to 2.6 yards per carry. Still, the opponents were Michigan, Northwestern and Syracuse. Clemson’s Travis Etienne has run for 1,463 yards and 21 touchdowns in one of the top running attacks in program history.
EDGE: Clemson 
WHEN CLEMSON PASSES: Notre Dame has one of the nation’s top pass defenses, allowing just seven touchdowns through the air all season and holding three of its final five opponents to under a 50 percent completion rate.
 EDGE: Notre Dame
WHEN NOTRE DAME RUNS: Dexter Williams brought a new dimension to the running game after taking over as the primary running back in late September. But Clemson’s defensive line has the ability to dominate the line of scrimmage and shut down Williams and the Notre Dame Ground game.
 EDGE: Clemson 
WHEN NOTRE DAME PASSES: Christian Wilkins, Clelin Ferrell and company will stress Notre Dame’s offensive line every time Ian Book drops back to pass. The Tigers’ ability to create havoc with just four rushers makes things substantially easier for the secondary. EDGE: Clemson
SPECIAL TEAMS: Clemson has the edge in coverage. Notre Dame’s kickoff team is one of the nation’s worst. There’s no real gap separating each team’s return groups. But Notre Dame is definitely more reliable on field goal attempts thanks to senior kicker Justin Yoon. EDGE: Clemson 
COACHING: Brian Kelly did a fantastic job reloading his staff after a dismal 2016. But Dabo Swinney knows exactly what buttons to push to get his team ready to go in this sort of atmosphere.

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