Wednesday, December 12, 2018

MY NFL WEEK 15 PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS


CHARGERS (10-3) VS. CHIEFS (11-2)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: Fox
Chargers’ keys to victory: Get the ball away quickly. Chargers QB Philip Rivers gets frustrated under pressure and the noise in Arrowhead Stadium won’t help. It’s one of the reasons the Chiefs have been so successful against the Chargers the past five seasons. With Chiefs LB Dee Ford, DE Chris Jones and DE Allen Bailey playing some of their best ball, Rivers will need to get the ball out fast or risk a frustrating day in Kansas City.
Chiefs’ keys to victory: Protect QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chargers didn’t have star DE Joey Bosa the first time they faced the Chiefs this season, and Mahomes threw for 256 yards and four touchdowns. Now Bosa is back and the Chiefs must do a better job of protecting their star quarterback. With RB Kareem Hunt’s earlier release from the team limiting the Chiefs’ rushing game, Mahomes must do more. But he can’t do that if he’s on his back.
Matchup to watch: Chiefs S Eric Berry vs. Chargers RB Melvin Gordon. Berry is expected to make his season debut and Gordon could play for the first time since Week 12. They won’t always be matched up, but whichever player has the greater impact in his injury return will go a long way toward determining which team wins.
Who wins? The Chargers have lost nine consecutive games to the Chiefs, dating to 2014. The Chiefs have the emotional boosts of getting Berry back and putting fan favorite Tony Gonzalez into the Ring of Honor at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chargers will find it hard to pull out a win. Chiefs, 48-37
TEXANS (9-4) AT JETS (4-9)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, Met-Life Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: NFL Network 
Jets’ keys to victory: One of New York’s priorities will be containing QB Deshaun Watson. The sophomore has had his ups and downs this season, but the Jets have really struggled defending against mobile quarterbacks. Bills QB Josh Allen, for example, ran for 101 yards and a score in the Jets’ Week 14 win against Buffalo. Another must is protecting their own quarterback, Sam Darnold, something the Jets have had mixed success. New York’s offensive line is no brick wall, but the unit has played much better of late and didn’t allow a sack to Buffalo.
Texans’ keys to victory: Building off of that, the Texans need to knock Darnold around a little if they want to slow the rookie down. Darnold’s confidence should be through the roof after his fourth quarter rally against the Bills, but the 21-year-old has been prone to mistakes when facing pressure. New York has played much better in the trenches in recent weeks, but that shouldn’t really be an issue for a pass rusher such as J.J. Watt. Expect the line’s sackless streak to end.
Matchup to watch: Texans QB Watson vs. Jets S Jamal Adams: Considering how Allen ran all over the Jets, Todd Bowles will want to have a spy on Watson.
Who wins? Although the Jets are flying high after their 27-23 comeback win against the Bills, they didn’t exactly take down a talented football team. The Texans, with their eyes on the playoffs, present a much tougher challenge and should have no problem beating the Jets on their home field. Jets, 30-17
BROWNS (5-7-1) AT BRONCOS (6-7)
Saturday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Broncos Stadium at Mile High, Denver
TV: NFL Network
Broncos’ keys to victory: Denver’s offense can’t get too one-dimensional against Cleveland’s underrated defense. After trading away WR Demaryius Thomas and losing WR Emmanuel Sanders to injury, the Broncos are thin at receiver. Still, Denver has to do more than line up and run the ball every play. On defense, the Broncos need to slow down Browns star RB Nick Chubb.
Browns’ keys to victory: Cleveland’s defense needs to focus on stopping Denver’s rushing attack. That’s easier said than done because the Broncos have two talented rookie rushers in Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. If the Browns can stack the box and shut down the run, they shouldn’t have to worry about QB Case Keenum beating them through the air. On offense, QB Baker Mayfield needs to protect the football and allow Chubb to do most of the heavy lifting. Denver’s defense forced nine turnovers during their three-game winning streak before a loss to the 49ers. Mayfield can’t afford to have any big blunders.
Matchup to watch: Browns WR Jarvis Landry vs. Broncos CB Bradley Roby. After CB Chris Harris broke his leg in Week 13, Roby filled in as the team’s top cornerback. Landry (790 yards) is Cleveland’s leading receiver.
Who wins? The Browns might be a better team than their record suggests, but the same could be said of the Broncos. Denver has won three of four games since its bye week and the Broncos seem to always have the upper hand when playing at home. Broncos, 24-17
CARDINALS (3-10) AT FALCONS (4-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: Fox 
Cardinals’ keys to victory: Arizona will need a strong performance from rookie QB Josh Rosen, who was forgettable in last week’s loss to Detroit. The two key rookies up front, C Mason Cole and LT Korey Cunningham, must lead the way for an offensive line that has been sporadic at best in pass protection. Rosen’s top target is WR Larry Fitzgerald, who is still going strong after 15 years. He leads Arizona with five touchdown catches. Defensively, the Cards will lean on Antoine Bethea and Budda Baker, their top tacklers.
Falcons’ keys to victory: The Falcons finally got their running game going in last weekend’s loss to the Packers. Rookie RB Ito Smith had 60 yards on 11 carries. RB Tevin Coleman chipped in 45 more on 10 carries. Offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian must break out of his recent rut and set up some big play-action calls off those runs. Keeping pass rusher Chandler Jones away from QB Matt Ryan will also be key. Atlanta has to do much better stopping the run than it has on its five-game losing streak.
Matchup to watch: Falcons WR Julio Jones vs. Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson. Peterson has been an excellent cover corner since he came into the league in 2011, taken one draft spot ahead of Jones. One of Atlanta’s few bright spots this season, Jones has 17 catches, 257 yards and one touchdown in three career meetings with the Cardinals.
Who wins? Atlanta has been playing below its competition all year, but it’s hard to see it losing at home to Arizona. Falcons, 22-19
BUCS (5-8) AT RAVENS (7-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, M& T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
TV: Fox 
Buccaneers’ keys to victory: With the Ravens’ offense leaning heavily on the run to control the clock, limiting the gains on first down is paramount. If the Buccaneers can limit Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and RB Gus Edwards early, they’ll force the Ravens to throw more often than they’d like. On offense, attacking with the tight end is a safe way to get big completions against the Ravens’ defense. Sustaining longer drives will tire out a Ravens’ defense that went into overtime last week.
Ravens’ keys to victory: The Ravens will need to ride the run again in this game to limit opportunities for the explosive Buccaneers’ offense. They will try to control the clock with big runs and long drives while keeping the turnovers to a minimum. On defense, they need to be physical with Buccaneers WRs DeSean Jackson and Mike Evans. Harassing QB Jameis Winston while keeping him contained will be a tough task but one the Ravens will need to do to stop the big play.
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers TE Cameron Brate vs. Ravens S Chuck Clark. The Ravens have not done well defending tight ends this season; often finding them wide open for big completions. Brate had his best game this season last week, catching two touchdowns.
Who wins? The Ravens are riding a winning formula in asking the offense to control the clock and kick field goals while the defense shuts down the best offenses. The Buccaneers have been hot and cold but haven’t outpaced what their defense is allowing very often. Ravens, 23-13
LIONS (5-8) AT BILLS (4-9)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, New Era Field, Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS 
Lions’ keys to victory: The Lions need to get their running game going. Rushing leader Kerryon Johnson is dinged up, so Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount will have to keep the Bills’ defense on their toes. Defensively, the Lions will see have to whether the good Josh Allen or the bad Josh Allen shows up. Allen has been consistently electric with his feet, rushing for more than 99 yards in three consecutive games. However, he has had a knack for making a silly turnover or two. He had three (two interceptions and a fumble) last weekend.
Bills’ keys to victory: The Bills need more from their rushing game than Allen. LeSean McCoy, Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy have struggled behind the ugly play of Buffalo’s offensive line. The jury is out on whether Allen, a rookie, can be the guy to lead an NFL franchise. On defense, the Bills’ secondary has to rebound. CB Tre’Davious White had a rare bad day against the Jets in the last game. He was beaten for a touchdown and on a 37-yard play that set up the game-winning score. While the Lions’ Matthew Stafford has struggled this year, he’s much better than Jets rookie Sam Darnold.
Matchup to watch: Bills CB White vs. Lions WR Kenny Golladay. White hasn’t been a shutdown corner the past two games. Golladay (team-best 859 yards) is an emerging wide receiver. White will need to get back into form to slow him down.
Who wins? The Lions defense should be able to force Allen into some sloppy play, which will cause a long day for Buffalo’s offense. Lions, 24-21
PACKERS (5-7-1) AT BEARS (9-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Soldier Field, Chicago
TV: Fox 
Packers’ keys to victory: The Packers will need to make things easier on QB Aaron Rodgers if they want to sweep the season series with Chicago. Their injured offensive line has to find a way to hold up against a Bears’ pass rush that is playing at its best, and Rodgers himself has to take care of the football against an opportunistic defense. If the Packers can sustain drives and tire out Chicago’s defense again, they can keep their head-to-head winning streak alive.
Bears’ keys to victory: The Bears will need their front seven to shut down Green Bay’s running game and keep Rodgers one-dimensional. On the other side, head Coach Matt Nagy must again commit to RB Jordan Howard to keep the pressure off of QB Mitchell Trubisky, especially after he struggled last week with three interceptions against the Rams. A big play or two from the Bears’ defense should be enough to give them the edge in this game.
Matchup to watch: Packers WR Randall Cobb vs. Bears CB Sherrick McManis. Cobb (nine receptions, 124 yards, one touchdown) had his best game of the season against the Bears in Week 1, and Chicago might have to rely on McManis as the backup slot cornerback with Bryce Callahan injured.
Who wins? Rodgers, whose team trailed 20-0 in the third quarter, led a historic comeback with 21 fourth-quarter points as the Packers beat the Bears in Week 1. But the teams have gone in opposite directions since then, giving Chicago the edge in this game. Bears, 21-13
RAIDERS (3-10) AT BENGALS (5-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati
TV: CBS 
Raiders’ keys to victory: Bully the middle of the field. The Bengals’ linebackers can’t fill lanes or cover, which is the biggest reason they repeatedly have been blown recently. Prioritizing RB Jalen Richard as a receiver and constantly dipping into the TE Jared Cook well should keep the offense moving and scoring.
Bengals’ keys to victory: Feed RB Joe Mixon. Get him passes over the middle. Get him passes behind the line. Anything. With QB Jeff Driskel under center and WR A.J. Green gone for the season, not to mention guys such as LT Cordy Glenn battling injury, it’s a Mixon or- bust approach.
Matchup to watch: Bengals’ pass rush vs. Raiders’ offensive line. Cincinnati’s only hope on defense stems from the pass rush up front with DT Geno Atkins and DE Carlos Dunlap. Teams have been able to overcome that by exploiting the linebackers, but the Raiders have coughed up 38 sacks over 12 games and counting, some resulting in injuries to QB Derek Carr. If the Bengals can get their pass rush going, it could create a few game altering plays.
Who wins? The Bengals field the NFL’s worst defense (in yards and points allowed), which has allowed at least 24 points in every game dating to Week 6, including 45 and 51 points in a pair of games. They coughed up 155 total yards in the opening quarter in Week 14 during a 26-21 loss to the Chargers. The Raiders should look like a playoff- caliber offense against this unit, especially in a Paul Brown Stadium that’s suffering some serious attendance issues. Raiders, 35-21
COWBOYS (8-5) AT COLTS (7-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
TV: Fox 
Cowboys’ keys to victory: One of the hottest teams in the NFL, the Cowboys will be able to find success by keeping the Colts’ pass rush at bay. QB Dak Prescott will be able to lean on WR Amari Cooper if the offensive line holds its own. RB Ezekiel Elliott will want to get his share of looks, but leaning on the pass might help as the Colts are allowing the second highest completion percentage (71.9) in the NFL. Defensively, the pass rush led by DE DeMarcus Lawrence will need to apply steady pressure on Andrew Luck, who averaged 14.8 yards per completion in Week 14.
Colts’ keys to victory: The Colts’ offense has found success through the air with Luck leaning on TE Eric Ebron in the red zone while WR T.Y. Hilton has recorded at least 125 receiving yards in three of the last four games. Getting RB Marlon Mack going is needed for a backfield averaging 2.3 yards per carry over the last two games. Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus should continue blitzing on third down to add help for a pass rush led by DT Denico Autry , who has five sacks in the last two games.
Matchup to watch: Colts RT Braden Smith vs. Cowboys DE Lawrence. The second-round pick in 2018, Smith has held his own against some tough pass rushers. Lawrence continues to shine as one of the top pass rushers in the league.
Who wins? This will be a really close game and it could go either way, but the Colts haven’t lost at home since September because of a potent offense and an overachieving defense. Colts, 21-20 
REDSKINS (6-6) AT JAGUARS (4-9)
Sunday 1 p.m. ET, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
TV: CBS 
Redskins’ keys to victory: Much of the Jaguars’ offense is hurt, so Washington won’t have to worry about them scoring much. The Redskins rank in the top 10 against the rush, and Jonathan Allen, Ryan Kerrigan and teammates will need to continue that success and stop RB Leonard Fournette. Getting to QB Cody Kessler won’t be hard because the Jaguars’ makeshift offensive line has allowed 17 quarterback hits over the last two weeks. The Jaguars struggle against the run, as shown by Derrick Henry’s Week 14 success, and the Redskins should ride with Adrian Peterson.
Jaguars’ keys to victory: It will be hard for the banged-up Jaguars to run, but Fournette needs to have a successful day. That could open up opportunities for Kessler and WR Dede Westbrook to continue their connection. Westbrook had 88 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 and has great ability after the catch. If the defense can limit Peterson, the Jaguars could force QB Mark Sanchez to test their dangerous secondary.
Matchup to watch: Jaguars LB Telvin Smith vs. Redskins RB Peterson: Smith is Jacksonville’s leading tackler and the team is horrible against the run if he has an off day. Peterson ranks eighth in the league in rushing, and Washington can win if he gets the best of Smith in one-on-one situations.
Who wins? This will be the Jaguars’ last home game of the season and they will fight hard in front of their fans to try to make amends for a poor 2018 showing. But they won’t be able to score much behind their makeshift offensive line. Redskins, 14-10
DOLPHINS (7-6) AT VIKINGS (6-6-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis
TV: CBS 
Dolphins’ keys to victory: The Dolphins are coming off an emotional win against the Patriots and somehow are still in the playoff hunt, even though QB Brock Osweiler has started five games. They’ll need to protect QB Ryan Tannehill, who threw for 265 yards and three touchdowns in Week 14 but had a sore ankle the day after. The Dolphins are 1-5 on the road this season and they’ll be at U.S. Bank Stadium, one of the toughest places to play in the league. This might not end well.
Vikings’ keys to victory: On paper, it feels like the Vikings’ defense should dominate Tannehill and the Dolphins’ mediocre offense. If the Vikings’ defense shows up to play, it should be enough to carry Minnesota to victory even if the offense can’t get going. Look for the defensive line, led by Danielle Hunter, Sheldon Richardson, Linval Joseph and Everson Griffen, to have big days.
Matchup to watch: Vikings RB Dalvin Cook vs. Dolphins’ defense. The second-year running back’s per-game nunbers are down from last season, but he has played well of late and could have a monster game against the Dolphins. Miami ranks 30th in the league against the rush and has allowed 5.0 yards per carry, which ranks 26th in the league.
Who wins? Both teams have a lot at stake. The Dolphins lead the all-time series 8-4 and have won the last three meetings. The difference is this game is that Minnesota is so good at home and Tannehill and the Dolphins have looked flustered on the road, especially when facing competent defenses. Vikings, 31-17
TITANS (7-6) AT GIANTS (5-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
TV: CBS 
Titans’ keys to victory: Every Giants opponent’s goal has been to stop RB Saquon Barkley, but no one has been able to do it. The Titans’ best defense could be a good offense. Marcus Mariota, Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis and company will aim to control the clock, win time of possession and do all they can to keep the Giants rookie off the field. With Giants S Landon Collins out for the season, that goal becomes more manageable.
Giants’ keys to victory: They need to figure out how to stop Henry, who had a 98-yard touchdown run last week. The Giants’ run defense, however, has become a weakness since the team traded DT Damon Harrison to the Lions. They can’t let Henry and Mariota run wild, because they’ll struggle to play catch-up with injured WR Odell Beckham Jr. missing his second consecutive game.
Matchup to watch: Titans’ offensive line vs. Giants’ defensive line. If Tennessee can bait LB Olivier Vernon into breaking containment, it will open things up on the outside for Henry and Lewis. If the Giants can bottle up the Titans’ top-end running game, they can put a safety on WR Corey Davis and eliminate big plays.
Who wins? The Giants are rolling a bit since their bye week, while the Titans continue to be inconsistent. One moment, they’re taking down the Patriots, and the next, they’re on the receiving end of a beating from Colts QB Andrew Luck. This game likely will be a low-scoring affair and, in typical Giants’ fashion, come down to the final play. Giants, 19-17
SEAHAWKS (8-5) AT 49ERS (3-10)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
TV: Fox 
Seahawks’ keys to victory: It all comes down to the running game. RB Chris Carson and company demolished the 49ers in Week 13, and that opened the deep passing game for QB Russell Wilson, who threw for four touchdowns on just 17 attempts. Defensively, the Seahawks can slow the 49ers by bringing pressure and forcing QB Nick Mullens into tough decisions. A big game from LB Bobby Wagner likely means a Seahawks victory.
49ers’ keys to victory: San Francisco cannot turn the ball over against an opportunistic Seattle team, as it did in a 43-16 loss in Week 13. Mullens threw a red-zone interception, RB Jeff Wilson fumbled in the red zone and WR Richie James muffed a punt during that game. The 49ers moved the ball but couldn’t score because of those turnovers. They have to be better limiting big plays by the Seahawks. They did a good job of containing Wilson (185 yards) with DL DeForest Buckner notching two sacks, but the secondary allowed too many receivers to run open.
Matchup to watch: Seahawks LB Wagner vs. 49ers QB Mullens. Wagner owned this matchup in Week 13 with a 98-yard interception return for a touchdown, plus two passes defended. If he is dominant again, Seattle wins. If Mullens gets the better of Wagner, the 49ers have a shot.
Who wins? Seattle is working on playoff positioning while the 49ers are just playing out the string. This shouldn’t be much of a fight as the Seahawks make it 10 wins in a row vs. the 49ers in the regular season. Seahawks, 31-10
PATRIOTS (9-4) AT STEELERS (7-5-1)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
TV: Fox 
Patriots’ keys to victory: The Patriots will want to feed the football to TE Rob Gronkowski early and often. Pittsburgh has never been able to slow Gronkowski down, and this season, tight ends from every team have been able to have their way with the Steelers’ defense. QB Tom Brady has had Pittsburgh’s number for years (3,124 passing yards over 10 games), and it will be tough for the Steelers to overcome history.
Steelers’ keys to victory: If the Steelers are going to beat the Patriots, they first need to get all their injured players back, especially RB James Conner. Pittsburgh will also have to figure out a way to avoid their slow starts on defense. Guys like LB T.J. Watt and DL Cam Heyward will need to start fast and keep their feet on the pedal to help protect a struggling Steelers’ secondary.
Matchup to watch: Patriots TE Gronkowski vs. Steelers’ defense. Will Pittsburgh be able to figure out a way to at least slow Gronkowski down? It hasn’t happened in a long time, and Gronkowski seems to find a way to make two or three huge plays against Pittsburgh every time they play. Steelers defensive coordinator Keith Butler needs to find an answer to stopping him for his team to have a chance.
Who wins? Every season it seems that the Steelers will have a great opportunity to finally get past New England. But with the injuries and inconsistency on the Pittsburgh roster, the Patriots just have to be good to win this meeting and extend their winning streak against the Steelers to six games. Patriots, 35-21
EAGLES (6-7) AT RAMS (11-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
TV: NBC 
Eagles’ keys to victory: Philadelphia’s run defense has struggled despite its stout defensive line. It ranks near the bottom in yards allowed per carry, which could prove to be troublesome against a Rams team that loves to run the ball with MVP candidate Todd Gurley. The Eagles must find a way to slow down Gurley, who ranks second in the league with 1,203 rushing yards, or the play-action passing game will be hard to stop. LB Jordan Hicks must play with discipline so he doesn’t bite on fakes.
Rams’ keys to victory: The Eagles’ offense doesn’t do one thing exceptionally well, so the Rams will focus on keeping pressure on QB Carson Wentz. Like any quarterback, he thrives when given time to see the field without having to shed pass rushers, allowing him to hit receivers downfield on slow developing routes. DT Aaron Donald (league-best 16 1 ⁄ 2 sacks) should have success against LG Isaac Seumalo, but he’ll need some help from OLBs Dante Fowler Jr. and Samson Ebukam on the edges.
Matchup to watch: Rams S John Johnson vs. Eagles TE Zach Ertz. Ertz is one of the best tight ends in the game and has been a staple in the Eagles’ offense. He might be the team’s most dangerous passing target, even with Alshon Jeffery and Golden Tate at wide receiver. Johnson leads the Rams with four interceptions.
Who wins? The Rams are too difficult a matchup for the Eagles, even if Wentz plays well. Los Angeles will put on a strong offensive performance and come away with a victory. Rams, 34-27
SAINTS (11-2) AT PANTHERS (6-7)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
TV: ESPN 
Saints’ keys to victory: Get creative again. The Saints got complacent after winning 10 in a row. That turned into one-dimensional, predictable offenses that were almost shut out by the Cowboys and pushed hard by the Buccaneers. Working QB Taysom Hill and Pro Bowl RB Mark Ingram back into the script can help the Saints dictate game flow again. They also need to continue to get quality snaps out of DE Cameron Jordan, DE Marcus Davenport and DT Sheldon Rankins. Every pass breakup, turnover and sack creates opportunities for the Saints’ offense to find its footing.
Panthers’ keys to victory: Get yards after the catch. QB Cam Newton’s shoulder hasn’t looked right for weeks, and it’s making it tough for him to push the ball deeper. To compensate, the Panthers must put RB Christian McCaffrey and WR Curtis Samuel in position to evade tacklers. Carolina must trust its defensive backs to hold up in man coverage so LB Luke Kuechley can help contain the Saints’ running attack.
Matchup to watch: Saints RBs Ingram and Kamara vs. Panthers LB Kuechley. The Saints were the only team to run at will on Carolina a year ago, and their dominant running backs paved the way for a three-game sweep. It falls on Kuechley to take away the Saints’ best weapon in the backfield with QB Drew Brees.
Who wins? The Saints got their mojo back at Tampa Bay, turning up the pass rush, which is bad news for a Panthers team that struggles to keep Newton clean. Saints, 20-14

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