RAMS TOP BEARS;
TEXANS KEEP WINNING
|
|
|
|
Playoffs, early-December style
... That's what Week 14 is, always has been and will be again in 2018. No less
than 14 games on this week's slate have moderate-to-serious playoff implications,
starting with Thursday night's game and going all the way through to Monday
night in Seattle. That weekend capper is particularly important, as a win
pushes the pesky Seahawks closer
to locking up a
postseason bid, something that seemed quite improbable at the outset of this season.
While the 2018 landscape has been
littered with powerhouses -- all of whom are jockeying for playoff positioning
this week -- there has also been room for the surprising upstarts, and the
'Hawks are front and center on that list. The Colts mirror
them in an upstart-NFL-team-parallel-universe kind of way. Indianapolis has a
real opportunity to improve its stakes by upsetting the Texans in
Houston. Speaking of potential upsets, Seattle and Indy each possess a sleeper
Coach of the Year candidate -- no one expected this back in August. Of course, that's usually how this
deal goes: The Cinderella teams push their head coaches past midnight and into
the glow of major awards. For Pete Carroll, in particular, such consideration
is more than merited. It's crazy the guy has never earned this honor. Before we
get ahead of ourselves, though, the Seahawks and Colts need
to win games.
The other 30 head coaches have
enough on their plates, even those with no postseason to play for ... See how
Lions-Cardinals shakes
out below. Or ignore that and just check out a fun matchup like Ramsat Bears.
Send your take, as well: garyldibert1@gmail.com
I went 9-7 on his predictions for Week 13, bringing my record for the season to 128-62-2.
How will I fare in Week 14? My picks are below.
SUNDAY, DEC. 9
BUFFALO BILLS 20, NEW YORK JETS 9
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | New Era Field (Orchard Park, N.Y.)
One of the few games this weekend
that are relatively meaningless. Draft positioning will dominate all the
discussion with these two teams going forward, though we know that no real fans will be rooting for
their precious Jets or Bills to
lose. Yeaaaaaah, maybe that isn't a totally accurate statement. Sam Darnold
appears poised to return for this game, but those Buffalo fans will
definitely make life miserable for Darnold (or Josh McCown,
if Darnold's foot acts up again), as will the Bills'
front seven. The Buffalo defense gave up 175 total yards in Miami last
week. If the Jets are
to sneak in a road win here and end their six-game losing streak, they must
re-script their red-zone plays. Blow up what they've been doing. Do a 180. That
overlooked area of pro football cost them a win last week in
Tennessee -- and, from a macro view, the Jets are
the worst offense in the NFL inside the 20.
NEW YORK
GIANTS 17, WASHINGTON
REDSKINS 13
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | FedExField (Landover, Md.)
Despite owning a 4-8 record, Big
Blue doesn't think it's out of the postseason picture.
For good reason, too: The NFC East could bunch up right quick. If the Giants are
able to oust the Redskins this
weekend, they will pull within a game of Washington. If the Eagles knock
off the Cowboys,
New York would suddenly be just two games back of first-place Philadelphia with
three games left. Perhaps still a tall order to take the division, yet with
the Vikings and Panthers struggling,
eight wins might be enough to grab that last wild-card space. Eli Manning is
the central figure in terms of the outcome of this NFC East tussle. The Redskins can
be awfully tough to run against, which means Saquon
Barkley can't be relied upon to bail out the offense. Also,
Manning has fared quite poorly in D.C. Over his career, Eli's posted a sub-90
passer rating there in 10 of 14 starts, with 16 touchdowns and 12
interceptions. In six of his last eight starts there, Big Blue has failed to
score 20. So, the outlook is bleak. Then again, his counterpart across the
field is Mark Sanchez.
Sanchez can call the heck out of those plays.
NEW ORLEANS
SAINTS 28, TAMPA BAY
BUCCANEERS 22
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
The Saints were
knocked down a link or two last week in
Dallas, at least in terms of team confidence. Kept them on
the top rung of the league hierarchy, though, because they barely
lost against a Cowboys
team jacked up to beat the NFL's premier contender. Can the Bucs match that
energy? Think so at home, but their personnel is not as strong as Dallas' at
any of the three levels of the defense. Tampa's secondary must repeat what it
did against the
Panthers, being at the right place at the tight time and catching the football. Drew Brees doesn't
provide too many gifts (three picks ... in 384 attempts!). With the Bucs likely
to struggle running on Dennis Allen's front seven, short fields would most
likely be needed for Jameis
Winston to generate an upset.
NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTS 27, MIAMI
DOLPHINS 20
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Fla.)
They might be NFL royalty, but
the Patriots have
royally sucked in Miami during the Bill Belichick era. They have managed just
an 8-10 record in Miami during his reign, which includes dropping four of the
last five there. Key to the Dolphins'
fortunes this week: A) If they can stop the four New England running backs from
consistently putting Tom Brady in
second-and-manageable situations; and B) converting third downs on offense. The
latter's been an issue all year, and it hasn't improved with Ryan
Tannehill under center the last two weeks, as Miami's gone
6-for-20 on pro football's most important down. Still waiting on the Brady-Josh Gordon connection
to take off. Gordon has caught 34 balls for 605 yards in nine games with New
England -- a rate of production that would produce 1,076 yards over a full
16-game slate -- but it's still far from the dominant WR1 status that we know
(think?) he is capable of attaining. Maybe this is the week, against this Miami
secondary.
KANSAS CITY
CHIEFS 27, BALTIMORE
RAVENS 24
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, Mo.)
Another huge game in the AFC,
with the Chiefs trying
to hold on to the
conference's top seed and the Ravens trying
to hold on to a potential wild-card spot. Baltimore's defense has performed
quite admirably this season, pacing the league in points and yards allowed, thus allowing
the offense to play conservative lately with Lamar Jackson under
center. Don't think the unit matches up too well against this week's opponent,
though. When the Ravens'
pass rush doesn't get home, the secondary can get exposed. Now, that group has
played great most of the year, but Baltimore hasn't seen a quarterback who
throws on the move like Patrick
Mahomes or a wide receiver who moves like Tyreek Hill.
And the top tight end safety Eric Weddle and
crew have played all year? Jared Cook.
(Yes, they faced Greg Olsen,
but with a balky foot.) So Travis Kelce presents
a unique problem. Look for Jackson to log 17-20 runs, while the Ravens should
look to pound the rock on the ground at least 40 times total. Did you know
Baltimore hasn't lost in Kansas City ... ever?
HOUSTON
TEXANS 23, INDIANAPOLIS
COLTS 17
1 p.m. ET (CBS) | NRG Stadium (Houston)
This matchup is a gem. While it
might have lost a little luster with Indianapolis finally falling again last week,
Colts-Texans could
ultimately decide the division. Houston comes in with a three-game lead, so a
win will basically call it a day in the AFC South. (UPDATE: This is not literally true, since the Titans' win on TNF means Tennessee stays within striking distance of the Texans.) On
the other hand, an Indy W keeps the division race alive and puts the Colts right
off the Ravens'
wing on the wild-card front. Always key when you are trying to beat Viper.
Wait, got off topic. In order to beat the Texans at
their place, the Colts'
wide receivers must find the soft spots in the zone and sit down. Come back to
the ball when the quarterback is in trouble. Do whatever it takes to make life
easier for Andrew Luck.
The pass protection will probably be there most of the time for Luck, even
against this extremely talented -- and active -- Texans front.
But if Luck's guys outside start running routes like they did in
Jacksonville, forget it. Deshaun
Watson has picked up his game of late, completing more than 74
percent of his passes and rushing for 100 yards over the last two weeks
combined. In other words, this won't be a case of overcoming a 6-0 deficit
late. Indy must manufacture more points. Like 24 more.
GREEN BAY
PACKERS 28, ATLANTA
FALCONS 14
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wis.)
What looked to be a must-watch
game when the schedule came out in the spring is now a matchup of deflated
organizations. The Falcons have
fallen apart since climbing back into the postseason race with a win at Washington
back in Week 9. In case you didn't hear it the first 1,000 times:
The Packers fired
their head coach after faltering against the worst team in the league at home.
Anticipating a heavier dose of Aaron Jones against
an Atlanta defense that has struggled against the run. The Falcons must
find creative ways to get Tevin Coleman and
their own ground game going -- they are averaging 52.8 rush yards per game over
the last four weeks. That's putrid. I'm taking a rejuvenated Green Bay team
under Joe Philbin in the cold at Lambeau. Watch Aaron Rodgers chuck
eight touchdown passes or something ridiculously Tecmo like that.
CLEVELAND
BROWNS 30, CAROLINA
PANTHERS 26
1 p.m. ET (FOX) | FirstEnergy Stadium (Cleveland)
This odd interconference pairing
features two teams coming off ugly losses, with ultra-confident quarterbacks
having suffered multiple turnovers in the process. Cam Newton threw
four picks, Baker
Mayfield three -- with all of them being uber-relevant to the
outcomes of those games. If Carolina loses in Cleveland, it will make for a
five-game losing skid, possibly allowing the Seahawks and Vikings to
lengthen their lead in the wild-card race and the Eagles and Redskins to
pass the Panthers.
The Browns are trying to sustain some kind of momentum and piece a few
wins together. If Mayfield can create plays downfield without pressing, Cleveland will
have a chance. Couple that with making accurate throws in the red zone, where
the Panthers have
allowed far too many scores. (They are 31st in the NFL in RZ defense.) Expect a
heavy dose of Christian
McCaffrey against the league's 28th-ranked run defense.
DENVER
BRONCOS 25, SAN FRANCISCO
49ERS 17
4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, Calif.)
LOS ANGELES
CHARGERS 34, CINCINNATI
BENGALS 21
The Bengals will
be without A.J.
Green's services. That's the latest news we have. That, and the fact
they will get beat by multiple scores. River sand the Chargers'
offense are white hot ... wait ... lightning hot,
having scored 78 points over the last two weeks, including 26 in the second
half last week at
Heinz Field. Cincy comes in sporting the worst defense in the NFL,
both in points and yards allowed. Joe Mixon has
been quite effective, averaging more than 5 yards per rush over his last seven
games. The problem is that he has only received 15-plus carries in one of those
games. Run the rock, play conservative and hope the Bolts come out at half-intensity.
Put another way: Speed the game up with more runs and fewer possessions.
Otherwise, this could get gnarly fast.
DETROIT LIONS 24, ARIZONA
CARDINALS 21
4:25 p.m. ET (FOX) | State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Ariz.)
The Lions have
been playing just well enough to get beat, whereas the Cardinals have
been beaten by everyone (including the
Raiders) but managed the most
surprising upset of the season just last week. Arizona's effort at
Lambeau got a head coach fired. I sure hope the Cardinals are
happy with themselves for that. Jerks. Actually, though, the Cards' own coach
had some speculation swirling about his future prior to the win in Green Bay.
Consecutive wins would do wonders for him -- and the entire organization. This
Detroit-Arizona matchup was the same game that derailed the Cardinals'
2017 campaign, as David Johnson broke
his wrist and was lost for the season. Byron Leftwich has gotten his lead
tailback more involved since taking over the play calling in mid-October. Still
problematic: simply acquiring a run-of-the-mill first down. The Cards average
12.8 of those per game. NFL average: 18.8. Ugh.
PITTSBURGH
STEELERS 30, OAKLAND
RAIDERS 24
4:25 p.m. ET (FOX) | Oakland Coliseum (Oakland, Calif.)
The Steelers will
be without James
Conner this Sunday in Oakland, which will be an issue. You know
what won't be? Their pass rush against the Raiders'
pass protection. According to Pro Football Focus, Oakland is near the bottom of
the league in pass blocking, whereas Pittsburgh comes in pacing the NFL in
sacks. It's not just T.J. Watt,
either, although he's been hell on wheels for opposing passers. Five different Steelers have
at least 4.5 sacks. If it sounds like I'm picking 4.5 as an arbitrary stat to
make the group sound fearsome, well, you got me. It's still darn impressive.
Give Derek Carr credit
(... if we can't give him time to throw). The guy put 33 points on the
board last week against
the AFC's No. 1 seed with the nucleus of an 0-13 fantasy team.
DALLAS
COWBOYS 23, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 20
4:25 p.m. ET (FOX) | AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
The Eagles have
won six of their eight meetings in Dallas this decade? What? So much for
home-field advantage. Considering that playing at Jerry World is like getting
football (bottle) service at a nightclub, with an in-stadium Pappadeaux the
most intimidating thing around, then ... OK, I made that part up -- at least I
don't think there is
a Pappadeaux there. But the truth is the Cowboys haven't
been that formidable in Big D. Then again, this 2018 defense of theirs is
special, top to bottom. It's looking like Sean Lee will
not make his return this week. That's OK, because Leighton
Vander Esch is making plays Lee Roy Jordan would be proud of,
and Jaylon Smith is
running around with Dexter Coakley-ish, Hollywood Henderson speed. If the Eagles are
to topple Dallas, they must run effectively early. They're averaging 43 rushing yards per game in the first
half, at 3.8 per clip. That puts far too much onus on Carson Wentz,
who then turns around and tries to throw the ball to Zach Ertz nine
plays in a row.
LOS ANGELES
RAMS 27, CHICAGO BEARS 26
8:20 p.m. ET (NBC) | Soldier Field (Chicago)
Ooooh, this matchup is sexy. It
would be even better if the Bears'
defense had fared better at the Big
Snoopy last weekend, or if the offense hadn't been struck with
fumblitis in overtime. Still, Chicago has resembled Snoopy flying on his doghouse.
No matter the holes in the foundation, or the repeated instances of getting
whipped by the Red Baron, Snoopy always hung in there -- much like these Bears.
Matt Nagy's group survived an emotionally draining loss at Lambeau back in Week
1, a running game that's been stuck in neutral much of the year, and
Mitch Trubisky being out the last couple of weeks. Yet, here the Bears are,
sitting atop the NFC North. These two teams could see each other in January,
but with Chicago's loss last week, any prospective matchup will take place at
the L.A. Coliseum. The really fun matchup will be Khalil Mack against Rob
Havenstein -- PFF has Los Angeles' RT rated as the seventh-best
tackle in football, right behind teammate Andrew
Whitworth. If the Rams are
overmatched up front, they'll lose. For all his greatness, Todd Gurley needs
seams more than RBs who have a little more wiggle -- or are more compact. Of
course, if Gurley breaks off chunk runs, Chicago could be done. Especially
considering what that would lead to: Jared Goff's
158 pass attempts on play-action lead the league, and his 8:1 TD-to-INT ratio
on those plays doesn't suck, either.
MONDAY, DEC. 10
SEATTLE
SEAHAWKS 28, MINNESOTA
VIKINGS 22
8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN) | CenturyLink Field (Seattle)
Hugely important game in the NFC wild-card race --
and an outcome that'll likely be decided by the quarterbacks. I know: What a
swashbuckling take full of risk! Maybe not, but given that Cousins has
never won on Monday night and Russell
Wilson has dominated MNF, maybe talking QBs here is not overblown. Score one for the
pertinent! The running games certainly could be relevant, but unless Mike
Zimmer directs Dalvin Cook to
get more carries, who cares? Cousins has to play well on the big stage. The
Vikes rank 30th in the NFL in rushing and average a chilling 2 yards per carry
in the red zone. With the crowd in Seattle acting like every game is the first
Van Halen concert with Sammy Hagar and noise being a certifiable distraction, a
stout ground attack is oft the great elixir -- it can mitigate the disruption.
Nothing quiets a crowd like pushing the ball methodically down the field, 4-6
yards at a time. Problem is, Minnesota never does that. The running scene of
Seattle does, to the tune of 148.8 per game (tops in the NFL), and that will be
the difference Monday night. So, I guess it didn't come down to the QBs after all. Score one for the
ground game!
No comments:
Post a Comment