PREDICTING THE NFL WILD-CARD RACES

The Los Angeles Rams clinched the first NFL playoff spot last week. More teams, particularly Kansas City and New Orleans, are likely to clinch playoff spots this week. Right now, all eight division leaders win their divisions in more than 70 percent of Football Outsiders' season simulations. Only Dallas and Pittsburgh are below 85 percent.

Instead of looking at overall playoff chances today, we're going to concentrate on the chances of the next batch of teams to win one of the four wild-card playoff spots. Our listing of teams leaves out the eight division leaders, but we'll make sure to mention the current chances for the listed teams to reverse the standings and win their divisions. At least one of the teams below comes back to win its division in 59 percent of our simulations.

We've simulated the season 30,000 times using Football Outsiders DVOA ratings to get the playoff odds we use below. For a full explanation on how we calculate each team's playoff odds, see the bottom of the article.

AFC

1. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (9-3)

Wild-card chances: 87.6 percent

This week, the Chargers climbed past the New Orleans Saints into the No. 3 spot in Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. In our weighted DVOA ratings, which give more strength to more recent games, the Chargers are No. 2, trailing only their division rivals in Kansas City. The Chargers are one of only two teams ranked in the top 10 in DVOA for both offense and defense. (The second team is a bit of a surprise, and we'll get to them below.)

Combine quality of play with a 9-3 record, and it is almost impossible for the Chargers to blow a playoff spot despite having a difficult December schedule. Los Angeles surges to win its division (and knocks Kansas City down to a wild card) in 9.7 percent of simulations, making its total playoff chances 97.3 percent.

2. BALTIMORE RAVENS (7-5)

Wild-card chances: 32.2 percent

Baltimore is back to its usual recipe: defense, special teams and just enough offense not to screw it up. Baltimore's offensive DVOA with Joe Flacco was actually higher than its offensive DVOA the past three weeks with Lamar Jackson, but defense and special teams have both improved to power the three-game win streak. Denver is higher in our ratings and has an easier December schedule, but Baltimore has a head-to-head win over the Broncos and a one-game lead over the rest of the wild-card contenders.

Baltimore overcomes Pittsburgh to win its division in 21.4 percent of simulations, making its total playoff chances 53.6 percent. Pittsburgh wins a wild card in 8.2 percent of simulations and misses the playoffs entirely 13.3 percent of the time.

The Ravens are going to have a tough time winning on the road in Kansas City and Los Angeles. (OK, perhaps the Chargers count as more of a "neutral-site" game.) But they're in a good position if they take care of business in their two home games, Week 15 against Tampa and Week 17 against Cleveland. In simulations in which the Ravens win at least those two games, they make the playoffs 77 percent of the time.

3. DENVER BRONCOS (6-6)

Wild-card chances: 29.8 percent

Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings love the Broncos this year. This -- not one of the current first-place teams -- is the other squad besides the Chargers that ranks in the top 10 for both offense and defense. Denver has the rare offense being carried by its ground game (second in DVOA) rather than its passing game (20th). The Broncos are rated super high in large part because of adjustments for their schedule, which features close wins or losses against most of the top teams in the league. Seven of their 12 games have come against teams in the DVOA top 10, with another game against Houston, which is just below at No. 11.

Unfortunately, Denver is still a game behind Baltimore and three behind the Chargers. The best thing that could happen to the Broncos would be for the Chargers to be locked into the fifth spot before Week 17 and therefore sit starters in the season finale against the Broncos. The Broncos really need that final game. In simulations in which they win the next three but lose to the Chargers, they get a wild card only 18.9 percent of the time.

Note that these simulations were run prior to the Achilles tendon injury suffered by star receiver Emmanuel Sanders on Wednesday.

4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (6-6)

Wild-card chances: 12.0 percent

The Colts haven't been as good as the Broncos, ranking 13th in our DVOA ratings. They also have a tougher remaining schedule, though no single opponent is as good as Denver's Week 17 opponent, the Chargers.

An important factor to watch for these 6-6 AFC teams is conference record. Right now Miami is at 5-4, Indianapolis 5-5, Denver 4-5 and Tennessee 4-6. The problem for all these teams is that Baltimore has a conference record of 6-4. Even if the Ravens lose an extra game to come back to the wild-card pack, they might end up with the best conference record of the bunch.

The Colts or Titans still win the AFC South in 6.3 percent of simulations. The Texans win a wild card in 4.7 percent of simulations, and in 1.6 percent, they miss the playoffs.

5. MIAMI DOLPHINS (6-6)

Wild-card chances: 8.1 percent

The Dolphins are in a similar position as Indianapolis, except that they have even less of a chance to win their last few games (they're down to 21st in DVOA), and they have the head-to-head loss to Indianapolis that might cost them the wild card even if Baltimore collapses.

Miami wins a miracle division title in 1.5 percent of simulations. New England misses the playoffs in roughly half of those simulations.

6. TENNESSEE TITANS (6-6)

Wild-card chances: 6.4 percent

Tennessee is the worst of the four 6-6 AFC teams, according to DVOA, ranking 25th at this point. Even if they go on a late-season run, they have a number of head-to-head losses that will cost them tiebreakers. The Titans lost to Miami in Week 1, Baltimore in Week 6 and Indianapolis in Week 11, though they get to play the Colts again in Week 17. Even if they go 9-7, the Titans have the lowest chance to win a wild card because they would likely be edged out by another team that finishes 9-7.

Wild-card chances with a 9-7 finish:

BALTIMORE: 44.3%
MIAMI: 26.9%
INDIANAPOLIS: 21.8%
DENVER: 21.2%
TENNESSEE: 13.0%

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NFC

1. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-5)

Wild-card chances: 92.2 percent

No NFL team has a better chance at a wild card than the Seahawks, thanks to the fact that (A) they have the best record among second-place NFC teams (B) they have head-to-head wins over both Carolina and Dallas and (C) they have no shot at a division title because the Rams have already clinched.

To those facts you can add that the Seahawks have an easy remaining schedule. Sure, the Chiefs are on there, but they come to Seattle, as do the Vikings. In the other two games, the Seahawks play the two worst teams in the league by DVOA, San Francisco (road) and Arizona (at home).

2. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-5-1)

Wild-card chances: 43.7 percent

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Since Week 6, only Denver and Chicago have had better defense than the Vikings, according to DVOA. Their offense is still mediocre, so they are far from the Super Bowl contender they were a year ago. But the good news for Minnesota is everybody else's schedule. The tough remaining slates for Carolina and Philadelphia increase the chances that the Vikings will be able to slip into the playoffs at 8-7-1, even if they can't win in Seattle this week or when hosting the Bears in Week 17. In simulations in which the Vikings finish 8-7-1, they win a wild card 61 percent of the time.

Minnesota also isn't out of the division race. The Vikings climb past Chicago for back-to-back division titles in 14.8 percent of simulations, making their total playoff odds 58.5 percent. Chicago wins a wild card 11.2 percent of the time and misses the playoffs 3.6 percent of the time.

3. CAROLINA PANTHERS (6-6)

Wild-card chances: 21.0 percent

Slip sliding away ... Four weeks ago, the Panthers ranked third in overall DVOA. They were 6-2, with playoff chances of 88.7 percent. Then they completely fell apart in a Thursday night game against the Steelers, and they've been struggling ever since. The defense is a big part of the problem, now down to 27th in DVOA. Meanwhile, the offense, which ranked fifth in DVOA through Week 9, has ranked 21st the past four games.

And now, over the horizon, here comes a home-and-home series with the division-rival Saints, who happen to be one of the best teams in football. What once looked like Carolina's chance at a long-shot division title now looks like two games that will likely keep Carolina out of the playoffs entirely. Carolina's best hope is for Minnesota to fall apart so the Panthers end up in a tie with either Philadelphia or Dallas for the sixth playoff spot. At that point, the Panthers will be in, thanks to head-to-head wins over both NFC East squads (though they lost to Washington).

4. WASHINGTON REDSKINS (6-6)

Wild-card chances: 12.8 percent

Our simulation penalizes Washington for being down to third-string quarterback Mark Sanchez, dropping their rating to 31st in the league, ahead of only Arizona. But it's not completely out of the realm of possibility for a team of that quality to go 2-2 in its final four games, especially when none of the teams on Washington's remaining schedule has an above-average DVOA. If it comes down to tiebreakers, Washington has some advantages: a head-to-head win over Carolina and a 6-4 conference record with its two remaining conference games at home.

5. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-6)

Wild-card chances: 5.5 percent

A lot is riding on this week's Philadelphia at Dallas game.

If Dallas wins, its chances of winning the division are 97 percent. Philadelphia's odds of winning a wild card actually go up slightly, to 6.1 percent, but its overall playoff odds go down dramatically.

If Philadelphia wins, the Eagles become the favorites to win the NFC East. Their wild-card odds go down to 4.5 percent, and the Cowboys' wild-card odds would be 12.8 percent.

Why are the wild-card odds so low for the Eagles? If they lose this week, they'll probably have to go 3-0 in their final three games to stay ahead of the Vikings. That's pretty tough with a trip to the Rams on the schedule next week. Even if the Vikings collapse and Philadelphia passes them, the Eagles have a head-to-head loss to Carolina, and their conference record is only 4-5 with all three remaining conference games on the road. The best way for the Eagles to get a wild card might be to end the season tied with Washington, because the Eagles beat the Redskins already and would be easily favored to sweep Washington in Week 17.

6. GREEN BAY PACKERS (4-7-1)

Wild-card chances: 3.6 percent

Our play-by-play breakdown says the Packers have been better than their record this season, as they rank 12th in DVOA despite being 4-7-1. This is really the only thing keeping them in our report. They're going to have to run the table to have a realistic chance at the postseason, and though there are some easy opponents, such as the Jets and the Lions, that also means winning in Chicago in Week 15.

7. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (5-7)

Wild-card chances: 2.1 percent

Despite two straight wins, the Bucs are not a good team in our ratings (26th), and they have one of the toughest remaining schedules: home vs. the Saints, at the Ravens and at the Cowboys the next three weeks. Getting to 9-7 with four straight wins is very unlikely.

8. ATLANTA FALCONS (4-8)

Wild-card chances: 1.4 percent

Atlanta would have to win three games on the road (plus an easy home date with Arizona) and then hope that most everyone else ends up at 7-9 (or, in the case of Minnesota, 7-8-1). Even at 8-8, the Falcons would have a problem with head-to-head losses to Philadelphia and Dallas.