MLB STOCK WATCH

MIDWINTER WINNERS AND LOSERS

The Christmas holiday marks the midpoint of the baseball offseason. In fact, given an initial spring training reporting date of Feb. 13 for pitchers and catchers, the recent Dec. 25 respite neatly splits the hot stove season perfectly in two. We're a week past that now, so we are officially on the downslope toward the return of big league baseball.

So how is everyone doing?

The real grades for each team are "incomplete" because there is so much left to do. We don't know the outcome of the Bryce Harper and Manny Machado dramas yet, and both of those players represent five-win swings for some bold team. Key free agents such as A.J. Pollock, Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel and Yasmani Grandal also are unsigned. Key trade candidates such as Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer and J.T. Realmuto remain in limbo.

All of this is to say that the story of the 2018-19 baseball offseason has not quite been written. But the landscape of the majors already looks a little different than it did when the season ended on Oct. 30 with the Red Sox's World Series-clinching win over the Dodgers. Which brings us to the return of my monthly Stock Watch -- a thematic glimpse at how things have changed since the last time we checked in.

Today, we are ranking teams by how much their 2019 outlook has changed since the end of the season. There is a lot that goes into this assessment. What players have been lost? What players have been acquired? What players who finished 2018 on the disabled list will be back? How will players improve, decline or regress from their 2018 performance? In the comments for each team, I'll note the key drivers of the team's measurement.

The data behind the rankings are a combination of my roster rankings as they stood at the close of the 2018 regular season, along with the Steamer projections from fangraphs.com, as they stood through Jan. 2. Teams are listed in order based on the change in their 2019 forecast since the end of the 2018 campaign, though their current forecast and overall standing in baseball's hierarchy also is noted.

BIG GAINERS

1. WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Change: Gain of 7.4 wins
Current forecast: 93.7 wins (2019 rank: 6 | 2018 final rank: 10)

The two biggest "losses" on the board right now are Bryce Harper for the Nationals and Manny Machado for the Dodgers. Machado's loss is more than offset by the "return" of Corey Seager from injury, so the Dodgers are good there. However, the Nationals have no such star returning from the DL, so how does this ranking come to pass?

Well, first of all, the Harper loss is pending -- it's entirely possible that he returns to the fold in Washington, which would make the Nats the overwhelming winner of the hot stove league. But the thing is they might be that already. Washington leads the offseason in WAR gained thanks to the aggressive acquisitions of Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez, Kurt Suzuki and Yan Gomes, along with Howie Kendrick's and Sean Doolittle's return from injury.

On top of that, let's not forget how badly the Nationals performed in relation to their preseason projections in 2018. Take a number of key spots of regression and a projected second-year improvement from star rookie Juan Soto and -- voila! -- what projected as a problematic offseason for Washington could turn out to be a major triumph.

2. CINCINNATI REDS
Change: Gain of 7.3 wins
Current forecast: 78.6 wins (2019 rank: 18 | 2018 final rank: 23)

Part of the Reds' expected improvement stems from acquisitions Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Tanner Roark and Matt Kemp. Part of it comes from injury returnees such as Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker. Still, the Reds have merely improved from bad to mediocre, so GM Dick Williams can't stop now.

3. NEW YORK METS
Change: Gain of 6.7 wins
Current forecast: 87.4 wins (2019 rank: 10 | 2018 final rank: 18)

Conversely, new GM Brodie Van Wagenen has improved the Mets from mediocre to pretty good. A No. 10 ranking is playoff-caliber, after all, being that 10 teams make the baseball postseason. New York currently rates as better than last year's surprising Atlanta Braves, but well behind the Nationals in the NL East. Still, right now New York looks like a prime wild-card contender. That said, let's remember that we're just past the halfway point of the offseason, and the Braves and Phillies still have some major moves to make. In other words, this is no time for Van Wagenen to rest on his laurels.

4. LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Change: Gain of 5.6 wins
Current forecast: 87.5 wins (2019 rank: 9 | 2018 final rank: 15)

The Angels have added Matt Harvey, Jonathan Lucroy, Trevor Cahill and Justin Bour, and can also expect to get a key piece back from injury in Zack Cozart. More than anything, though, the Angels haven't lost anybody of impact except maybe starter Matt Shoemaker. Only two teams have lost less WAR from its season-ending 2018 roster than L.A. As it stands, the Angels are positioned to battle the Tampa Bay Rays for the second wild-card slot in the American League. Traditionally, that slot -- from the hot stove perspective -- is highly volatile. The Angels could stand to make major gains from the addition of another couple of impact pitchers.

MODEST GAINERS

5. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Change: Gain of 3.8 wins
Current forecast: 80.7 wins (2019 rank: 16 | 2018 final rank: 20)

Surely it won't end up this way, but right now, the Phillies have suffered a net negative on talent from their maneuvers this winter. David Robertson, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura are fine players, but the Phillies have lost several solid veterans. A couple of them -- Wilson Ramos and Asdrubal Cabrera -- were known to be stopgap solutions. Carlos Santana had to be moved to balance the roster between offense and defense. J.P. Crawford isn't as good as Segura on paper, but he's at least average and has more upside. Bour didn't have a spot, but he was a valuable depth piece. No matter how you slice it, right now the Phillies' roster isn't as good as it was when the season ended, even if Philadelphia's relative ranking hasn't changed all that much. Philly can expect to improve from within, to be sure, but some of that "stupid spending" must come to pass if the Phillies' outlook is going to change much between now and spring training.

6. ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
Change: Gain of 3.6 wins
Current forecast: 89.2 wins (2019 rank: 8 | 2018 final rank: 12)

According to Steamer, there are currently six players projected for at least four WAR who will find themselves on a team's roster in 2019 who weren't on that roster when 2018 ended. Corey Seager is one of those, as is fellow injury returnee Buster Posey of the Giants. Another is super-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is expected to burst onto the scene with the Blue Jays from Triple-A. That means there have been just three such players who have moved from one team to another. Those are Josh Donaldson (Braves), James Paxton (Yankees) and the Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt. But Goldschmidt is not the only one driving St. Louis' ranking here. Andrew Miller could have a tremendous impact on the Cardinals' bullpen, and then there are last year's disabled players like Alex Reyes, Michael Wacha and Dexter Fowler, who is a prime bounce-back candidate. The Cardinals haven't quite caught the Cubs in the early projections, but they are my pick right now to win the NL Central.

7. SAN DIEGO PADRES
Change: Gain of 3.6 wins
Current forecast: 74.3 wins (2019 rank: 22 | 2018 final rank: 25)

By now, Padres fans are probably eager for their team's gradual climb to really take off, a la last year's Braves. It could happen in 2019. Veteran acquisition Ian Kinsler brings stability to the roster. But let's face it; barring another splash for San Diego, any leap would come from young players improving at the big league level and others graduate from the minors. On the latter front, San Diego's rating here is driven in part by soon-to-emerge prospects Chris Paddack and Fernando Tatis Jr. Paddack, in his first year back after Tommy John surgery, had 120 strikeouts against eight walks in 90 minor league innings last season. Yes, eight walks. The math: His K: BB ratio was 15:1.

8. BOSTON RED SOX
Change: Gain of 3.4 wins
Current forecast: 99.3 wins (2019 rank: 1 | 2018 final rank: 3)

As you can see, Boston actually finished the 2018 season ranked third in my roster ratings, behind the Astros and Dodgers. Those ratings clearly didn't hold up during a postseason in which the Red Sox steamrollered the competition. But that really has nothing to do with why the champs have emerged as the No. 1 team in the early projections. In some respects, this is a surprising rating. Boston has done little other than to retain pitcher Nathan Eovaldi and platoon first baseman Steve Pearce. Meanwhile, Kinsler and reliever Joe Kelly have found new homes, and Craig Kimbrel is dangling in the free-agent market. A projected return of Dustin Pedroia offsets Kinsler's departure on paper, but his injury risk remains sky high.

So why do the Red Sox remain so strong on paper? Much of it has to do with the youth on the roster. Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers all are on the right side of 30. But let's not forget that projected wins are a zero-sum game. An increase of one win for one team means a decrease of one win for the other teams in aggregate. Boston seems to be benefiting from its stability in a market that has been slow on impact players. The Red Sox have lost relatively little from a powerhouse roster, which isn't something that the Astros and Dodgers can likewise claim.

9. NEW YORK YANKEES
Change: Gain of 2.6 wins
Current forecast: 97.9 wins (2019 rank: 3 | 2018 final rank: 4)

More than any other team, the Yankees' offseason can really only be considered in one context: how the roster shapes up against that of Boston. The Yankees had an elite roster, and they still do. But they haven't yet caught the Red Sox on paper. Additions still need to be made, especially to the bullpen.

10. MINNESOTA TWINS
Change: Gain of 2.5 wins
Current forecast: 82.6 wins (2019 rank: 12 | 2018 final rank: 19)

It has been a sneaky good offseason for the Twins, who have added Nelson Cruz, Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron to bolster the offense. Michael Pineda and Jason Castro will be back from injury, and no team has more upside on its roster in terms of possible bounce-back performances. The headliners on that front are Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Minnesota needs to add to its bullpen, but the Twins are quietly poised to take advantage of any kind of slippage by the Indians atop the AL Central.

11. TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Change: Gain of 2.4 wins
Current forecast: 75.2 wins (2019 rank: 21 | 2018 final rank: 21)

For all the tearing down that has been done in Toronto, the timeline for a return to contention can be greatly clipped if Vlad Guerrero Jr. turns out to be as good as we expect him to be. Circle your calendars for the second half of April because you'll want to keep track of when the Baby Impaler is going to bat.

12. DETROIT TIGERS
Change: Gain of 2.0 wins
Current forecast: 67.4 wins (2019 rank: 26 | 2018 final rank: 28)

The Tigers have added some marginal veterans to keep things stable while the farm system does its work. That means a net positive on the WAR front from the likes of Jordy Mercer, Matt Moore and Tyson Ross. And let's all root for a grand return to prominence -- and health -- for Miguel Cabrera.

13. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
Change: Gain of 1.7 wins
Current forecast: 72.6 wins (2019 rank: 23 | 2018 final rank: 24)

This rating doesn't mean much for a Giants squad that hasn't done much this winter beyond hiring a new team architect in former Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi. The improvement suggested is driven by the expected returns of Posey and Jeff Samardzija. But it's nothing to get excited about. The adventure is just beginning.

14. MIAMI MARLINS
Change: Gain of 1.5 wins
Current forecast: 64.9 wins (2019 rank: 29 | 2018 final rank: 29)

Rating pending the trading away of J.T. Realmuto. Then, at last, the talent bleed in Miami should be stopped.

TREADING WATER

15. CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Change: Gain of 0.9 wins
Current forecast: 66.8 wins (2019 rank: 27 | 2018 final rank: 27)

The White Sox actually lost some plus players this winter, though none of them were impact performers. Gone are Omar Narvaez, Avisail Garcia, Kevan Smith, Hector Santiago, James Shields and Matt Davidson. Say what you will, that's a big chunk of last year's clubhouse. Yet the White Sox project to improve just a hair in terms of wins. That's driven by the return of Jose Abreu, along with the additions of Ivan Nova and Yonder Alonso. And it's especially driven by the ascension of Eloy Jimenez to the big leagues. Of course, this outlook could change drastically in a positive fashion if Chicago ends up landing either Machado or Harper.

16. CHICAGO CUBS
Change: Gain of 0.8 wins
Current forecast: 91.2 wins (2019 rank: 7 | 2018 final rank: 6)

The only things keeping the Cubs in this group are the injury returns from Yu Darvish and Brandon Morrow. Beyond that, Chicago's offseason so far has been an absolute cipher.

17. PITTSBURGH PIRATES
Change: Gain of 0.6 wins
Current forecast: 81.8 wins (2019 rank: 14 | 2018 final rank: 16)

Pittsburgh has actually lost more WAR this winter than it has gained, so this modest improvement stems from improvement from within. And that's the way things really ought to work for the Pirates. Nevertheless, signing Lonnie Chisenhall and Jordan Lyles isn't exactly going to appease the Pirates' grumbly fan base.

18. TAMPA BAY RAYS
Change: Loss of 0.3 wins
Current forecast: 85.2 wins (2019 rank: 11 | 2018 final rank: 11)

It has been an active offseason for the Rays, who rank third in WAR gained, but also 12th in WAR lost. While the net result is the epitome of treading water, that's just the jumping off point for Tampa Bay's 2019 outlook. First off, it would be shocking if the Rays don't acquire a middle-of-the-order bat to shore up the offense before spring training. Even more than that, let's not forget just how young the Rays were in 2018 and remain so in 2019. I haven't done these calculations yet, but I would be surprised if Tampa Bay doesn't end up with baseball's highest collective breakout rate by the time the season begins.

19. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Change: Loss of 0.7 wins
Current forecast: 97.0 wins (2019 rank: 4 | 2018 final rank: 2)

The re-signing of Clayton Kershaw was huge, but it doesn't figure into these calculations. He was on the roster at the end of last season, and he'll be there at the start of next season. As mentioned, the loss of Machado is more than offset by the return of Seager. The Dodgers have certainly lost a lot of production beyond Machado in Yasmani Grandal, Brian Dozier and the trio of salaries dumped to the Reds (Puig, Kemp, Wood). Yet you can see the Dodgers' incentive to remain docile. They still rank among the power teams in the majors and right now look around 17 games better than any other team in the NL West. More than any other team in baseball, the Dodgers can approach the 2019 season with an eye on building a postseason powerhouse. For me, that means adding another run producer whose approach is on the aggressive side, and a whole lot of additional options for the bullpen, though the addition of former Red Sox reliever Joe Kelly was nice.

20. CLEVELAND INDIANS
Change: Loss of 0.8 wins
Current forecast: 94.1 wins (2019 rank: 5 | 2018 final rank: 5)

Only three teams have bled more WAR, and only two have suffered a greater net loss. The Indians still project well because they are a talented bunch. But the derby at baseball's elite level is fierce right now, and this is not the kind of penny-pinching you want to see from a team trying to get past the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros. Oh well, it's not like the Indians haven't won a World Series since the Truman administration or anything.

21. KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Change: Loss of 0.9 wins
Current forecast: 66.2 wins (2019 rank: 28 | 2018 final rank: 26)

If such a thing is possible, I actually thought the 104-loss Royals overachieved a bit last season, at least during the second half of the campaign. While the net effect of Kansas City's moves this winter doesn't move the needle much in terms of projection, they still have had one of baseball's most interesting offseasons. GM Dayton Moore has gone all in on speed, outfield defense and athleticism. There is a universe where Jorge Soler stays healthy, builds on last season's improvement and drives in 130 runs in the middle of a Royals lineup in which RBI opportunities will be funneled to a couple of power bats. Meanwhile, teams built to combat baseball's take-and-rake launch angle proliferation may grow dizzy watching Billy Hamilton, Terrance Gore, Whit Merrifield, Chris Owings, Adalberto Mondesi and Brett Phillips run all over the place. It may not pay off in wins, but damn, it's going to be fun to watch.

MODEST LOSERS

22. BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Change: Loss of 2.5 wins
Current forecast: 59.8 wins (2019 rank: 30 | 2018 final rank: 30)

The Orioles let Adam Jones and Tim Beckham walk, while the process of hiring new lead executive Mike Elias lasted well into the offseason. As a result, the O's have really done nothing this winter, and that's not something likely to change much. In this case, the inaction is of little consequence. No. 30 is as low as you can go.

23. COLORADO ROCKIES
Change: Loss of 3.1 wins
Current forecast: 80.0 wins (2019 rank: 16 | 2018 final rank: 14)

The Rockies haven't really addressed the losses of pending free agents Carlos Gonzalez or Adam Ottavino yet, so there is that. But let's focus for now on the infield, where Colorado has ostensibly swapped D.J. LeMahieu for Daniel Murphy. I know that Murphy may mostly play at first base, but all that means right now is that the expected hodge-podge the Rockies will have at second base replaces the hodge-podge they had at first in 2018. So let's consider LeMahieu vs. Murphy. Over the past three years, Murphy has an OPS+ of 136; LeMahieu is at 103. Because that is a park-adjusted metric, that looks like a major upgrade for the Rockies. However, LeMahieu posted 11.2 WAR during those seasons against Murphy's 6.4. Despite Murphy's per-at-bat advantage, LeMahieu has been more durable, resulting in just an 11-run advantage in runs created for Murphy. LeMahieu is four years younger, which doesn't bode well for Murphy making up that durability gap. Also, whereas Murphy is a famously negative defender, LeMahieu is a three-time Gold Glover and owns a slight edge on the basepaths. This is a long way of saying that, as of now, the Rockies have done little this winter other than to replace a very good player with an older, arguably lesser one.

24. TEXAS RANGERS
Change: Loss of 3.4 wins
Current forecast: 68.7 wins (2019 rank: 25 | 2018 final rank: 22)

I have been hesitant over the past year or so to label the Rangers as a true rebuilding team, even though it has become abundantly clear that's what they are. I guess I just thought there was more talent on the big league roster than there really is. But this winter confirms Texas' status as a build-for-the-future squad. The Rangers aren't as good now as they were at the end of last season, and they weren't very good at the end of last season.

25. ATLANTA BRAVES
Change: Loss of 3.9 wins
Current forecast: 82.5 wins (2019 rank: 13 | 2018 final rank: 9)

The Braves will certainly be hoping that improvements from young players such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and a number of pitchers will fuel an even better squad in 2019. That and some more graduations by their top minor leaguers. However, at the big league level, despite the high-impact addition of Donaldson, this is a team with some holes in its projection. In a rapidly improving division, you'd like to see the Braves augment their talent waves with plus veterans in the outfield, the rotation and the back of the bullpen. Stay tuned because the bulk of the Braves' offseason work likely lies ahead.

26. HOUSTON ASTROS
Change: Loss of 4.3 wins
Current forecast: 98.4 wins (2019 rank: 2 | 2018 final rank: 1)

And you could say the same thing about the Astros, who may be angling for homegrown solutions to their newly vacated roster spots. We are talking some big names who have left: Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Marwin Gonzalez, Martin Maldonado, Brian McCann, Evan Gattis. All of this, on paper, weakens what shaped up as baseball's best roster at the end of the 2018 season. The additions of Michael Brantley and Robinson Chirinos were important, but just as important will be the successful transition of outfield prospect Kyle Tucker and young pitchers Josh James and Forrest Whitley. The Astros need another veteran starter, but they can afford to be patient. After all, for all the talent the Astros are losing, they've merely dropped from first to second in the projections.

BIG LOSERS

27. ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Change: Loss of 5.8 wins
Current forecast: 78.0 wins (2019 rank: 19 | 2018 final rank: 13)

The ranks of the rebuilders grew by two this winter, with the Diamondbacks joining the Mariners as teams looking to win at some indeterminate date down the line. The Diamondbacks have made some additions, such as Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly from St. Louis in the Goldschmidt trade. And they will get some injured players back, such as Jake Lamb, Jarrod Dyson, Steve Souza and Taijuan Walker. But let's face it, when a team loses three starts like Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock, its projection is going to take a major hit.

28. OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Change: Loss of 8.2 wins
Current forecast: 81.1 wins (2019 rank: 15 | 2018 final rank: 8)

The A's, on the other hand, have headed in the wrong direction, and it's not by design. Well, not exactly. Oakland, as ever, is on a tight budget and will continue to wait out the market to see what bargains might shake loose. The losses of Jed Lowrie, Lucroy and Trevor Cahill, among others, hurt Oakland's projection but those players are hardly irreplaceable. Jurickson Profar, acquired from Texas, may be better than anyone the A's have lost. Still, Oakland needs to stabilize its rotation with further additions. While the Athletics' projection has suffered this winter thus far, Oakland remains in striking distance of a wild-card spot.

29. SEATTLE MARINERS
Change: Loss of 8.7 wins
Current forecast: 71.9 wins (2019 rank: 24 | 2018 final rank: 17)

Ah, Jerry DiPoto. You gotta love him. Steamer hasn't generated a projection yet for Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi, so he's not included in these numbers. But when he is included, it's likely that the Mariners will rank first in both WAR gained and WAR lost this winter. And DiPoto is not done yet. Through the haze of transactions, the direction toward rebuilding is clear, so the roster clearing will likely continue.

30. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Change: Loss of 12.6 wins
Current forecast: 77.4 wins (2019 rank: 20 | 2018 final rank: 7)

The Brewers have drubbed their projections the past couple of years, so Milwaukee fans should be only mildly alarmed at this outlook. The Brewers have added to the margins of their roster in Cory Spangenberg, Alex Claudio and Ben Gamel. Together, that trio projects for just 0.7 WAR in 2019. The biggest addition to Milwaukee's bottom line is the expected return of starter Jimmy Nelson, who missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury.

But gone from the season-ending 2018 squad -- the one that finished one win shy of the World Series -- are Mike Moustakas, Schoop, Domingo Santana, Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez. That WAR drain, along with projected regression for NL MVP Christian Yelich, means that the Brewers have fallen off the pace of the Cubs and Cardinals in the NL Central and don't currently rate much different than the Pirates and Reds. This is all a long way of saying that the Brewers need to get going with their offseason plan, and I'm sure these numbers will improve. And besides, Milwaukee has been making mincemeat out of its external projections for two years now.