Sunday, January 6, 2019

THE PLAYS THAT COST THE VIKINGS, STEELERS AND TITANS A PLAYOFF TRIP


The playoff field is finally set. Here's your guide to everything you need to know about the 12 teams vying to win Super Bowl LIII.
The Minnesota VikingsPittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans just barely missed the playoffs. That's what actually happened. But had this one little thing gone a different way, it might have won one more game. And had it gone that alternative route, you might be preparing for next weekend's watch party right now. If only.
Each of those three teams that came up just shy of the postseason has at least one of those plays it wants to take back. These are the moments fans try hard to forget but always remember.
Let's take a look bad at the season-altering plays from weeks earlier.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-6-1)
THE PLAY: Fourth-down touchdown allowed at Oakland Raiders(Week 14)
WIN PROBABILITY SWING: Minus-68 percent
Any loss at the hands of the 2018 Raiders hurts quite a bit. But when a team was just one play away from avoiding disaster at Oakland and ended up as close to the playoffs as the Steelers did, there's an extra sting.
The Steelers took a four-point lead over Oakland with just under 3 minutes to go. But that put the ball in Derek Carr's hands, and the Raiders quarterback marched his team down the field and deep inside Pittsburgh territory. Pittsburgh forced a fourth-and-goal from the 6-yard line with 25 seconds to go, but Carr hit an open Derek Carrier on the goal line for what ended up being the winning score.
Ben Roethlisberger did lead the Steelers down the field and set up Chris Boswellfor a 40-yard field goal try in the game's final seconds, but the kick was no good.
At the time it didn't seem quite the problem it ultimately became. Even following the loss, the Steelers still had a 73 percent chance to reach the postseason. But then again, a victory that Sunday and the Steelers are looking ahead to a January matchup.
TENNESSEE TITANS (9-7)
THE PLAY: Failed two-point conversion vs. Los Angeles Chargers(Week 7)
WIN PROBABILITY SWING: Minus-50 percent
Of course we can look at the Week 17 win-and-in matchup with the Colts as a whole here, but if one play had broken right for Tennessee weeks earlier, perhaps it wouldn't have mattered.
Down by seven over in London, Marcus Mariota led the Titans on a 13-play, 89-yard drive before throwing a 1-yard touchdown to Luke Stocker to bring Tennessee within one. With only 31 seconds left in regulation, coach Mike Vrabel, hoping to wrap up a victory and fly back across the pond with a winning record, elected to try to take care of the game in a single play.
Taywan Taylor ran an in-breaking route on the two-point try, but cornerback Michael Davis was on his tail and there was a safety in zone coverage underneath. So Mariota had to fit the ball through a tiny window. But ultimately, there actually was no window at all. Davis closed the gap and positioned himself between Taylor and the ball, and Mariota's pass ended up high and incomplete. Here's a look at the play from NFL Next Gen Stats animation:
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (8-7-1)
THE PLAY: Fumble vs. New Orleans Saints (Week 8)
WIN PROBABILITY SWING: Minus-28 percent
The Vikings led the Saints by three points with 1:11 remaining in the first half of a Week 8 contest when an ordinary quick pass to Adam Thielen proved costly. The star receiver caught the ball and got to New Orleans' 14-yard line before he fumbled on a hit by Saints linebacker Alex Anzalone. It was recovered by Marshon Lattimore, who ran back 54 yards to the Vikings' 33-yard line.
Vikings receiver Laquon Treadwell made the situation worse by throwing his helmet, prompting a 15-yard flag after the play and putting Drew Brees' offense on the Minnesota 18-yard line with almost a minute to play in the half. The Saints scored a touchdown two plays later and went on to win the game 30-20.
Entering that week, the Vikings had a 68 percent chance to reach the playoffs; that number dropped to 46 percent following the loss.

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