Following an exciting Wild Card weekend, we once again turn to my
computer to predict the winners and
losers of the NFL Divisional Round.
I didn’t do
so hot in the NFL Wild Card round, going 1-3 with my
predictions. The game correctly predicted an Indianapolis Colts
win over the Houston Texans, but incorrectly predicted the Seahawks, Ravens and Bears to
win their games. They didn’t and now I have a Divisional Round that looks like
this:
·
Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs
(Saturday at 4:35 p.m.)
- Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams (Saturday at 8:15 p.m.)
- Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (Sunday at 1:05 p.m.)
- Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (Sunday at 4:40 p.m.
Today’s sim specifically focuses on Saturday’s games.
Coming off of a bye week, the Kansas City Chiefs and
their high-powered offense are the likely favorites at home this week. But
don’t sleep on Andrew Luck and the Colts who absolutely dominated the Texans
last week.
The Chiefs don’t have a great defense, so it’s entirely
possible this could turn into a shoot-out. While the Colts have shown flashes
of brilliance on the offensive side of the ball this season, I still don’t
think they’d be able to keep up with the Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and the
rest of the Chiefs offense.
The Colts are going to need some help from their defense and
will want to keep this as low-scoring of a game as possible. But what
will Madden predict?
The Dallas Cowboys, meanwhile, had an impressive victory over
the Seattle Seahawks last week. As many had expected, it was a low-scoring game
and the Cowboys defense absolutely dominated a Seahawks offense that showed no
creativity when their gameplan to run the ball was stuffed.
As has been the case for most of the season, the Cowboys
offense did just enough to help out their defense which has really been the
backbone of the team all year. The Cowboys will face a stiffer test on both
sides of the ball this week when they face a Rams team that has scored 32.9 points
per game on offense and has consistently forced turnovers and pressured the
quarterback on defense.
Can the Dallas Cowboys once again rise up to the occasion
and slay a team that has been heavy favorites to win the Super Bowl? Let’s see
what Madden says!
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
26, INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 20 (OT, SORT OF)
The Colts defense held the Chiefs out of the end zone in the
first quarter. In fact, they shut them out. The Chiefs actually had a chance
for a long field goal early in the quarter when they got to the Colts’ 37-yard
line, but a failed fake field goal ended the threat.
The Colts used that momentum and scored a touchdown on their
very next possession. It was a one-yard pass from Andrew Luck to star receiver
T.Y. Hilton. The quarter ended with the Colts offense driving once again.
The Colts kicked a field goal to start the second quarter
and extended their lead to 13 on their next possession. The Chiefs finally got
something going and scored their first points of the game late in the quarter
on a 19-yard pass from Patrick Mahomes to Tyreek Hill.
The teams traded multiple three-and-outs before the Chiefs
received the ball on their own 22-yard-line with 42 seconds remaining. Mahomes
made the most of his opportunity. Four passes got them to the Colts 19-yard-line
where they pulled to within three to close the half.
The Chiefs did nothing to open the half. A solid drive, in
which Luck completed three straight passes to T.Y. Hilton, set up a four-yard
touchdown run by Marlon Mack to give the Colts a 20-10 lead. The Chiefs would
answer with a 41-yard field goal and into the fourth they’d go, down by seven.
The fourth quarter would prove to be every bit as exciting
as hoped. Patrick Mahomes would rise to the occasion, connected with passes to
Damien Williams (24 yards) and Tyreek Hill (35 yards) to set up a
two-yard touchdown run by Spencer Ware to tie the game at 20. It’s worth noting
that Ware is questionable for the game.
Both defenses would step up in the fourth quarter. The
Chiefs had a chance for some late heroics, receiving the ball on their own
seven-yard-line with a little over a minute left in the game.
This is where things got a little messy with the simulation
and ultimately might’ve altered the results. Aided by a 15-yard-penalty while
on the Colts’ 40-yard-line, the Chiefs made it to the red zone with 18-seconds
left. They ran the ball once more and then for some reason didn’t attempt the
field goal.
Ultimately, it wouldn’t matter much. The Chiefs defense
would stop the Colts on their first possession of overtime and Mahomes ended up
throwing a touchdown to tight end Deon Yelder. Aside from the spread being
affected, the result was the same.
KEY PERFORMERS
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Andrew Luck: 25-49, 269 yards, 1 TD
Marlon Mack: 11 carries, 52 yards, 1 TD
T.Y. Hilton: 9 receptions, 60 yards, 1 TD
Eric Ebron: 7 receptions, 112 yards
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Patrick Mahomes: 31-51, 387 yards, 2 TD
Spencer Ware: 16 carries, 42 yards, 1 TD
Tyreek Hill: 8 receptions, 149 yards, 1 TD
Travis Kelce: 7 receptions, 78 yards
LOS ANGELES RAMS
37, DALLAS COWBOYS 26
The Cowboys opened up the game with an impressive drive that
took them all the way to the Rams’ 27-yard-line. That set up a 44-yard field
goal by Brett Maher to give the Cowboys a quick 3-0 lead.
The Rams responded with an impressive first drive of their
own that also ended in a field goal. After forcing the Cowboys to punt, it was
the Rams who scored the first touchdown of the game on a 22-yard touchdown pass
from Jared Goff to Josh Reynolds.
The Cowboys opened the second quarter with the ball and took
a gamble when they were met with 4th-and-six on the Rams’ 44-yard-line. A pass
to Ezekiel Elliott was snuffed out and the Rams took over. They did little with
their field position and Dallas forced a quick three-and-out.
A 10-play drive for Dallas ended in another field goal and
the two teams traded punts. The Rams received the ball with 1:23 left in the
half and, as we’ve seen time and time again, you can only slow this Rams
offense for so long. Jared Goff completed five-straight passes with the last
being another touchdown to Josh Reynolds – his second TD reception of the game.
Down 17-6 to start the third, Dallas came up with a pivotal
stop to force the Rams to kick a field goal. Needing a score, Ezekiel Elliott
delivered with an electrifying 75-yard touchdown run. Unfortunately, Maher’s
extra point was blocked.
The Rams extended their lead late in the third quarter on a
10-yard pass from Goff to Todd Gurley II. Dallas would receive the ball
with 1:55 left and would end the quarter knocking on the door at the
Rams’ 6-yard line.
It was a crazy fourth quarter.
The Cowboys would score on the very next play, a touchdown
pass from Dak Prescott to Cole Beasley. Once again, the Rams responded,
matching the Cowboys drive with a touchdown of their own. A seven-yard
touchdown run by Todd Gurley II extended their lead to 34-19. The Cowboys then
scored on their next possession on another Cole Beasley touchdown to pull
within a score, 34-26.
After forcing the Rams to punt, the Cowboys offense had
a chance to make something happen. With 1:28 left on the clock, the Cowboys
found themselves facing 4th-and-2 on their own 35-yard line. Elliott was
stopped for a two-yard loss, effectively ending any chance for a comeback. The
Rams would drain the clock before kicking another field goal for some safety.
KEY PERFORMERS
DALLAS COWBOYS
Dak Prescott: 23-39, 206 yards, 2 TDs
Ezekiel Elliott: 26 carries, 185 yards, 1 TD, 6 receptions,
48 rec. yards
Blake Jarwin: 6 receptions, 40 yards
Amari Cooper: 5 receptions, 60 yards
Cole Beasley: 3 receptions, 21 yards, 2 TDs
LOS ANGELES RAMS
Jared Goff: 22-30, 338 yards, 3 TDs
Todd Gurley II: 26 carries, 85 yards, 1 TD, 6 receptions,
111 rec. yards, 1 rec. TD
Josh Reynolds: 6 receptions, 78 yards, 2 TDs
We’ll have to wait for Sunday’s games before I find out who
the Chiefs and Rams will be playing in the Conference Championships. Check back
tomorrow to see who I predcit will win the Chargers-Patriots and Eagles-Saints.
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