FINAL POINT-TOTAL PROJECTIONS
All 31 NHL teams have reached the official midway point of
their season, so in addition to this week's updated rankings, we are offering
our take on which teams will finish under or over their current projected
points pace.
1. TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNING
Previous ranking: 1
Points pace: 130. The Lightning are on pace for
the best regular season since the Red Wings amassed 131 points in 1995-96.
They're a full-on juggernaut, but there's a reason no one has cracked 130
points in 23 years. Under.
2. TORONTO MAPLE
LEAFS
Previous ranking: 2
Points pace: 109. The Leafs were a 105-point
team last season, so this mark is very much in reach. As long as
goaltender Frederik
Andersen remains steady (and healthy), this team will hit 110
points or better. Over.
3. CALGARY
FLAMES
Previous ranking: 5
Points pace: 109. The Flames are for real, and
that plus-31 goal differential isn't just a product of better-than-expected
goaltending. (And a .902 save percentage is ahead of where we thought they'd
be.) Getting to 108 points in the wacky West is a tall order, but they're 100
percent a 100-point team. Under.
4. SAN JOSE
SHARKS
Previous ranking: 8
Points pace: 104. Due respect to the Sharks'
recent roll and the return of Erik Karlsson to
public adulation, but I can't trust a team with a .893 save percentage to stay
on this pace. However, it's a playoff team, for sure. Under.
5. NASHVILLE
PREDATORS
Previous ranking: 6
Points pace: 104. The Predators were a 117-point
team last season, and this current pace comes after three months of significant
injuries to top players like Filip
Forsberg and P.K. Subban.
A fully armed and operational Predators team will power past this current
pace. Over.
6. WASHINGTON
CAPITALS
Previous ranking: 4
Points pace: 109. This would be ahead of where
the Capitals finished last season. As Alex Ovechkin showed
with his All-Star Game decision, Washington knows that slow and steady can win
the race again. Under.
7. WINNIPEG JETS
Previous ranking: 3
Points pace: 109. The Jets are at this pace
with Connor Hellebuyck playing
to a .909 save percentage and Patrik Laine with
one goal since Dec. 16. Those trends are going to reverse, and GM Kevin
Cheveldayoff is going to pull off another Paul Stastny-esque
move at the deadline. Over.
8. VEGAS GOLDEN
KNIGHTS
Previous ranking: 9
Points pace: 103. The Knights are probably a
team that lands at around 100 points, but if there's anything we've learned in
the past year, it's to not bet against Vegas. Over.
9. PITTSBURGH
PENGUINS
Previous ranking: 10
Points pace: 103. The goaltending has figured
itself out, Sidney Crosby is
playing at an MVP level and they're on an 11-2-0 roll. To quote an ancient ad
campaign for an adult beverage: Beware of the Penguins. Over.
10. BOSTON BRUINS
Previous ranking: 7
Points pace: 103. The Bruins and Leafs will
flip-flop in the standings, with Toronto getting the No. 2 seed and home ice
and Boston getting right around 103 points. Conservatively, we'll say they're
just a shade below it. Under.
11. COLUMBUS BLUE
JACKETS
Previous ranking: 11
Points pace: 100. The teams chasing the top
three in the Metropolitan are starting to close the gap a bit. We're a little
worried about what GM Jarmo Kekalainen does with Artemi
Panarin and Sergei
Bobrovsky. The Jackets have been a 100-point team only once in
franchise history. John Tortorella has hit that number only three times in 14
full seasons as an NHL coach. Under.
12. NEW YORK
ISLANDERS
Previous ranking: 14
Points pace: 100. The Islanders are riding the
PDO train this season (102.82 in combined shooting and save percentages).
They're an amazing story, and they could very well be a playoff team, but
they're probably also crossing the finish line with double-digit points. Under.
13. BUFFALO
SABRES
Previous ranking: 12
Points pace: 99. Are the Sabres going to have a
37-point improvement from last season? No. But they're going to have a
30-plus-point improvement, which is nothing to be ashamed of. Under.
14. DALLAS STARS
Previous ranking: 18
Points pace: 93. If team president Jim Lites can
savage his best players in profanity-laced tirades to the media every month or
so, they're money. (Also, it'll be a big help if Ben Bishop keeps
doing what he's been doing.) Over.
15. COLORADO
AVALANCHE
Previous ranking: 13
Points pace: 89. This pace has steadily
decreased in the past two weeks, as the Avs have tried everything, including
breaking up their heralded top line. The West is an absolute meat grinder, but
I think the Avs can get back around that 95-point plateau. Over.
16. MONTREAL
CANADIENS
Previous ranking: 15
Points pace: 95. Middle of the pack in offense
and defense, but not too reliant on one line to carry them. Claude Julien is a
stealth Jack Adams candidate for squeezing as much juice out of this team as he
has. Under.
17. MINNESOTA
WILD
Previous ranking: 17
Points pace: 88. It's a Bruce Boudreau team,
which means it will ultimately exceed expectations and end up in a playoff spot
even if it has no business being there. Over.
18. ANAHEIM DUCKS
Previous ranking: 16
Points pace: 86. The Ducks have come back down
to earth with the velocity of Skylab, as John Gibson's
back strains from carrying the sixth-worst possession team and second-worst
offensive team to the playoff bubble. We were right about Randy Carlyle, you
guys. Under.
19. VANCOUVER
CANUCKS
Previous ranking: 19
Points pace: 80. The Canucks are a team with
some true offensive dynamos, but one that has trouble preventing both shot
attempts and goals from opponents. This is, like, an 82-point team, but one
that's at least going to be exciting to watch even as their playoff hopes
fade. Over.
20. CAROLINA
HURRICANES
Previous ranking: 23
Points pace: 88. I refuse to believe that we're
witnessing yet another season of incredible possession numbers that are
submarined by either terrible goaltending or invisible offense. This year, it's
the latter, as the Canes have a 7.3 shooting percentage, worst in the NHL. Ugh
... but they're better than 88 points. They have to be. Over.
21. EDMONTON
OILERS
Previous ranking: 22
Points pace: 82. Fun fact: Ken Hitchcock hasn't
had a team finish with a points percentage lower than .625 since his final
campaign with the Blue Jackets. It's going to happen this season, for sure, but
the Oil are going to be better than 82 points in Peter Chiarelli's swan
song. Over.
22. FLORIDA
PANTHERS
Previous ranking: 21
Points pace: 82. One of my chillier freezing
cold takes is that the Panthers would be a 100-point team this season, which
they most certainly will not be. Unless, of course, they go on some ridiculous
winning streak, on which I've now dolloped a freezing cold take on top of a
now-much-warmer take. Over.
23. NEW YORK
RANGERS
Previous ranking: 20
Points pace: 80. This points pace doesn't take
into account the roster pruning that most certainly will occur again at the
trade deadline for the Rangers. Under.
Only two goalies have won the Hart Trophy as MVP this
millennium. Here's why the Ducks goalie should be No. 3, plus updates on all
the other award races.
24. ARIZONA
COYOTES
Previous ranking: 26
Points pace: 76. If the Coyotes finish with 76
points, it will be the first six-point year-over-year improvement that
ultimately feels like a downgrade. Over.
25. NEW JERSEY
DEVILS
Previous ranking: 24
Points pace: 76. Wait: Are you saying we
shouldn't expect a team with only two true finishers at forward and goaltending
that's ranked 26th in save percentage will hit 97 points again? We still wager
they get over 80. Over.
26. CHICAGO
BLACKHAWKS
Previous ranking: 28
Points pace: 71. While doing as poorly as
possible would behoove the Hawks in the long term, the fact is that this
combination of prideful veterans and young players trying to earn their keep
will be better than this current pace by season's end. Over.
27. DETROIT RED
WINGS
Previous ranking: 25
Points pace: 71. This is right around where we
expect the Wings to end up before a really, really interesting summer in
Detroit when it comes to managerial decisions. Eh, we'll take the under for the
sake of the draft. Under.
28. ST. LOUIS
BLUES
Previous ranking: 29
Points pace: 76. It's a lost season for the
Blues, but one that'll see them beat this current pace. Perhaps via copious
amounts of starts for Jordan
Binnington over Jake Allen. Over.
29. LOS ANGELES
KINGS
Previous ranking: 31
Points pace: 69. Who ends up with more points:
the Kings in the standings, or their leading scorer this season? In any case
... Under.
30. PHILADELPHIA
FLYERS
Previous ranking: 27
Points pace: 69. In the time it took you to read
this, the Flyers just started five more goaltenders. Over.
31. OTTAWA
SENATORS
Previous ranking: 30
Points pace: 67. Hey, great news,
Colorado. Under.
No comments:
Post a Comment