MY AFC CHAMPIONSHIP PREVIEW AND PREDICTIONS

PATRIOTS (11-5) AT CHIEFS (12-4)

WHEN:  Sunday

TIME:  6:40 p.m. ET,

PLACE:  Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri

TV:  CBS 

LINE:  Chiefs by 3

HEAD TO HEAD: The Patriots enter their eighth consecutive AFC championship game, though they are 0-2 on the road in these games during that run and face the top seed.

ALL TIME: Chiefs, 18-15-3

PLAYOFFS: Patriots, 1-0

FIRST MEETING: 1960

LAST MEETING-OCT. 14, 2018: A Week 6 matchup in Foxborough, Massachusetts, ends with a Stephen Gostkowski 28-yard field goal as time expires, though New England blows a 24-9 halftime lead. Tom Brady posts his 200th win as a starting quarterback and dives for a touchdown while throwing for another among his 340 passing yards. But quarterback Patrick Mahomes rallies the Chiefs in the second half, finding Tyreek Hill on a 1-yard TD pass to go ahead with 8:38 left and a 75-yarder to Hill to tie the score with just over three minutes left.

CHIEFS’ KEYS TO VICTORY: When the Chiefs faced the Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts, earlier this season; they allowed Tom Brady to comfortably play his game. Not much defense was played by either team. The Chiefs need to dictate the terms of the game. If the Chiefs play their type of game filled with pass rush, aggressive man coverage, solid run defense and big plays on offense, they’ll surely win.

PATRIOTS’ KEYS TO VICTORY: The Arrowhead advantage is a real thing and the Chiefs’ offense and defense feed off it constantly. (The Chiefs are 8-1 there this season, including the playoffs.) For the Patriots to have a shot, they’ll have to quiet the crowd when their offense is on the field. The best way to quiet a loud crowd is move the sticks.

MATCHUP TO WATCH: CHIEFS OLB JUSTIN HOUSTON VS. PATRIOTS QB TOM BRADY. Houston has taken on a unique leadership role on the defense late in this season, paving the way for the Chiefs’ newfound defensive successes. Kansas City held the Colts to 263 yards in the divisional round and had three sacks, including two by Houston. Houston will be a key piece in putting that pressure on the seemingly unflappable Brady. (Houston missed the teams’ Week 6 game with a hamstring injury.)

WHO WINS AN WHY? After their performance against the red-hot Colts, it’s hard to take anyone other than the Chiefs. Remember they’re playing for an AFC championship for the first time in front of a home crowd for the trophy named after their founder Lamar Hunt.

MY PREDICTION: Chiefs, 43-35