MY NBA FORECAST

AWARDS, FINALS MATCHUPS AND WARRIORS VS. THE FIELD

Who is the favorite for MVP and the major NBA awards? Who is winning the Finals: The Golden State Warriors or the field?

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO WIN MVP?

MVP is quickly becoming a two-player race between Giannis Antetokounmpo and James Harden. Our panel gives Antetokounmpo the slight edge for now, but Harden has a chance to build his case if he keeps the Houston Rockets afloat with starting center Clint Capela out four to six weeks.

Forecast Results

PLAYER	TEAM	POINTS*	1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo	MIL	172	54.5
2. James Harden	HOU	166	45.5
3. LeBron James	LAL	19	0
4. Kawhi Leonard	TOR	15	0
5. Stephen Curry	GSW	6	0
*Weighted for first, second and third choice

Others receiving votes: Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Paul George, Nikola Jokic

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO WIN ROOKIE OF THE YEAR?

Yeah, this one looks like it's over. The only question now is if Luka Doncic's incredible rookie season will earn him a spot in the All-Star game.

Forecast Results

PLAYER	TEAM	VOTES (%)
1. Luka Doncic	DAL	97.7
2. Deandre Ayton	PHX	2.3

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO WIN SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR?

Lou Williams is a slight favorite to claim his third career Sixth Man award, though this should remain a close race throughout the second half of the season. Derrick Rose, Domantas Sabonis and Spencer Dinwiddie all have time to make cases while thriving on competitive teams.

Forecast Results

PLAYER	TEAM	VOTES (%)
1. Lou Williams	LAC	25.0
2. Derrick Rose	MIN	22.7
3. Domantas Sabonis	IND	20.5
4. Spencer Dinwiddie	BKN	13.6
5. Montrezl Harrell	LAC	6.8
6. Dennis Schroder	OKC	4.5

Others receiving votes: Gordon Hayward, Terrence Ross, Marcus Smart

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO WIN DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR?

This is an abnormally deep DPOY race. Usually, a clear contender or two emerges early on, but any of these five players could end up taking it. ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) gives Rudy Gobert the edge among this group, but Paul George has the benefit of providing rare, elite defense on the wing.

Forecast Results

PLAYER	TEAM	VOTES (%)
1. Paul George	OKC	31.8
2. Rudy Gobert	UTA	25.0
T-3. Anthony Davis	NOP	15.9
T-3. Kawhi Leonard	TOR	15.9
5. Joel Embiid	PHI	11.4

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO WIN MOST IMPROVED PLAYER?

Pascal Siakam is having a breakout third season on the league-leading Toronto Raptors. The Raptors are 12.8 points per 100 possessions better when he's on the court as compared to when he sits, and he's up to No. 24 in RPM. There's a long list of strong MIP candidates. They're all chasing Siakam.

Forecast Results

PLAYER	TEAM	VOTES (%)
1. Pascal Siakam	TOR	27.3
2. De'Aaron Fox	SAC	11.4
3. Montrezl Harrell	LAC	9.1
4. Derrick Rose	MIN	6.8
T-5. Jamal Murray	DEN	4.5
T-5. Zach LaVine	CHI	4.5
T-5. Julius Randle	NOP	4.5
T-5. Buddy Hield	SAC	4.5
T-5. Nikola Vucevic	ORL	4.5

Others receiving votes: Bradley Beal, Joel Embiid, Danny Green, Nikola Jokic, Kyle Kuzma, JaVale McGee, Monte Morris, Domantas Sabonis, Kemba Walker, Justise Winslow

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO WIN COACH OF THE YEAR?

The Milwaukee Bucks have the best point differential in the NBA, a remarkable feat considering they were merely average last season and returned mostly the same roster. Head coach Mike Budenholzer has helped develop a top-5 offense and defense around Antetokounmpo. Budenholzer's new system is working wonders. In a deep season for impressive coaching jobs, Budenholzer stands out.

Forecast Results

COY	TEAM	VOTES (%)
1. Mike Budenholzer	MIL	52.3
2. Mike Malone	DEN	22.7
T-3. Gregg Popovich	SAS	6.8
T-3. Nate McMillan	IND	6.8
5. Nick Nurse	TOR	4.5

Others receiving votes: Doc Rivers, Terry Stotts, Luke Walton

WHO ARE THE MOST LIKELY EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS?

The East was declared wide open when LeBron James headed to L.A., and our panel likes Toronto to take the crown. The Raptors likely have the fewest weaknesses among these contenders. Milwaukee is unproven in the playoffs, while Boston and Philly have dealt with some drama so far.

Forecast Results

EAST CHAMPS	POINTS*	1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Toronto Raptors	78	79.5
2. Milwaukee Bucks	25	11.4
3. Boston Celtics	24	9.1
4. Philadelphia 76ers	5	0.0

WHO ARE THE MOST LIKELY WESTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPIONS?

Yep, it's the Warriors. But who are they going to face in the West finals? No clear No. 2 has emerged. The Feb. 7 trade deadline could have a significant impact on the cluster of teams trying to knock off the champs.

Forecast Results

WEST CHAMPS	POINTS*	1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Golden State Warriors	87	97.7
2. Houston Rockets	15	2.3
3. Oklahoma City Thunder	14	0.0
4. Denver Nuggets	10	0.0
5. Los Angeles Lakers	5	0.0

WHO IS MOST LIKELY TO WIN THE NBA FINALS?

Projection systems are split on just how strong Golden State's title chances are. FiveThirtyEight gives the Warriors a 55 percent chance to win it all -- No. 2 Toronto is only at 15 percent -- while ESPN's Basketball Power Index pegs the defending champs at just 15.7 percent likely to repeat, trailing Milwaukee (29.8 percent).

Forecast Results

NBA CHAMPS	POINTS*	1ST-PLACE (%)
1. Golden State Warriors	83	90.9
2. Toronto Raptors	31	4.5
T-3. Houston Rockets	6	2.3
T-3. Boston Celtics	6	0.0
5. Milwaukee Bucks	4	2.3
6. Los Angeles Lakers	2	0.0