MY PREVIEW, PREDICTIONS,
KEY MATCHUPS, MORE
One round of the 2018 NFL playoffs is in the books. Now we're previewing
the divisional
game slate with a rundown for each matchup , score predictions an more. What to watch
for and the Key matchups
SUNDAY'S GAMES
(5) CHARGERS
AT (2) PATRIOTS: 1:05 P.M. ET, CBS
POINT SPREAD: NE -4
MATCHUP QUALITY: 76.5 (of 100)
The Patriots at home in January coming off a bye feels like
easy money. Philip Rivers is
0-7 in his career against Tom Brady,
and the Patriots are tried-and-true playoff blue bloods. But these Chargers are
9-0 this season when they've had to travel outside of Los Angeles. Flying to
Baltimore last week, back home Sunday night and back to New England this week
might bother some teams, but it's not likely to make much difference to Anthony
Lynn's road warriors. Will Chargers defensive coordinator Gus Bradley have an
ingenious new game plan to combat Brady and the New England running game, as he
did last week against the Ravens? And what aspect of the Chargers' diverse
offense will Bill Belichick scheme to take away? It may be now or never for
Rivers, who has his best team in years and a chance for a sweet late-career
addition to his legacy.
MY WIN PROJECTION: NE, 65.0 percent. The
Patriots are the smallest favorite in this round, according to FPI, but were
also the only team to go undefeated at home this regular season. New England
finished fourth in offensive efficiency (78.4) and second in defensive
efficiency (80.5) at home, according to FPI. Rivers was second in the NFL in
QBR in road games during the regular season (81.3) and posted a 78.3 at
Baltimore in the wild-card round.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Belichick vs. Rivers.
Let's keep an eye on the coverage schemes and rotations Belichick draws up to
limit Rivers' ability to throw intermediate cuts off high-low concepts. In the
Chargers' playbook, Rivers can work two-level reads inside, which puts defenders
in conflict -- and that leads to open windows. New England's linebackers and
secondary must take away his ability to make high-percentage throws with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on
inside breaking routes.
BETTING NUGGETS: The Chargers have won outright
in each of their past five games as an underdog and are led by Rivers, who is
6-1 ATS with four outright wins in seven career postseason starts as an
underdog. As for the total, eight of the Patriots' past nine games have gone
under.
OFFICIATING SCOUTING REPORT: Referee Ron
Torbert's regular-season crew threw the second-lowest total of flags (13.7 per game) this season.
That increases the likely possibility of a low-flag game. The Patriots finished
the season tied for seventh in the NFL with 113 penalties. The Chargers ranked
No. 14 with 124.
MY PICK: The
Bolts will have to play a near-perfect game on the road to earn a victory.
However, with a veteran coaching staff and two edge rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin
Ingram, who can pressure Brady, the Chargers have a chance to
pull off the upset. The key for the Chargers will be limiting mistakes and
scoring touchdowns on offense. The Patriots allowed 4.9 rushing yards per play
during the regular season, tied for third worst in the NFL, which bodes well
for Melvin Gordon.
New England also allowed 59 passing plays of 20-plus yards in 2018, so the
Chargers' receivers should create some explosive plays down the field. CHARGERS
24, PATRIOTS 21
(6) EAGLES AT
(1) SAINTS: 4:40 P.M. ET, FOX
POINT SPREAD: NO -8
MATCHUP QUALITY: 60.4 (of 100)
To get to last year's Super Bowl, the Eagles had to win two
home playoff games. To get to this year's big game, Nick Foles &
Co. have to win three road playoff games. One down and two to go, with the help
of a Soldier Field upright, but this week's trip to the Superdome may be the
toughest test yet. They'll see a rested Saints team that finished in the top
five in the league in rushing andpassing offense for the second
year in a row. If the Saints' offensive line can keep the Eagles' defensive
front from wrecking the game with the pass rush, Drew Brees should
have plenty of time to pick apart Philadelphia's decimated secondary. New
Orleans would be wise to build a big lead, though. Based on the past two
postseasons, the last thing you want to do is put the ball in Foles' hands late
in a close game.
MY WIN PROJECTION: NO, 80.9 percent. The Saints
are the biggest favorite of the weekend, thanks largely to their offensive
prowess at home this season. Brees posted a league-leading 89.7 Total QBR in
home games this season, the second highest since ESPN began tracking QBR in
2006 (Aaron Rodgers,
90.5 in 2011), leading the Saints to the second-best offensive efficiency in
home games (85.0), according to FPI. One ray of hope for Philadelphia is that
the Saints had a 30.4 defensive efficiency at home, second worst in the league.
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Brees vs. Avonte Maddox.
Maddox is an aggressive corner with the transition speed to break downhill on
the ball. He's going to close in a hurry. But that also leads to opportunities
to run double moves at the young cornerback. If Maddox is sitting on the slant
or the quick out -- like we saw in the wild-card matchup against Chicago --
look for Brees to target the rookie with a double move over the top.
BETTING NUGGETS: The Eagles have won outright in
each of Foles' past six starts as an underdog, with four of those wins coming
in the postseason. As for the total, the over is 9-0 in the Saints' nine
postseason games played in Superdome.
OFFICIATING SCOUTING REPORT: Referee Carl
Cheffers' crew gets two of the least-penalized teams in the NFL. The Saints had
the second-fewest penalties (109), and the Eagles ranked No. 6 (112). Officials
did nab the Saints for 20 defensive pass interference (DPI) calls, second most
in the league, but Cheffers' regular-season crew made the second-fewest such calls (nine), and overall had the lowest
combined total of DPI, illegal contact and defensive holding (27).
MY PICK: Of course I don't expect another 48-7
rout like their last meeting two months ago, but the Saints do have a lot going
in their favor as the No. 1 seed. Most importantly, their banged-up offensive
line has had time to rest, which should help their offense get back on track
and help nullify Philly's terrific front four. New Orleans' receiving corps is
also healthier with Ted Ginn Jr.
coming back late in the season, and a refreshed Alvin Kamara should
play a huge part in the passing game. Last but not least, the Saints are at
home, where they have averaged 40 points per game in the past five games that
Brees played. The Saints are 5-0 in the Superdome in the playoffs during the
Sean Payton-Brees era. SAINTS 30, EAGLES 20
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