THE BIG CHILL - NFL PLAYOFF PROP EDITION
Kansas City is expected to get hit with a cold rain Friday
night into Saturday morning, which — depending how low the mercury drops this
weekend — could make for either a sloppy track or frozen tundra come Sunday, no
matter how many heating coils lay underneath Arrowhead Stadium. With Tom
Brady's experience playing in cold weather, give me the Patriots (+3) to
advance to the Super Bowl.
The forecast for New Orleans doesn't matter because — for
better, for worse — the NFC championship is being played inside a dome with
regulated temperatures hovering around a cozy 68 degrees. I like the Rams to
cover +3.5 but the Saints to march on over to Atlanta.
WHO WILL RECORD THE MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS?
FAVORITES
Pat Mahomes
Drew Brees
Tom Brady
Jared Goff
Over the past three games, the Saints, Patriots and Rams
have all averaged fewer than 236 pass yards per game, while the Chiefs posted 276
PYPG. Los Angeles, which averaged 276 pass yards per game on the season, has
averaged just 200 pass yards per game during that stretch. As much as I believe
Mahomes can sling it with the best quarterbacks in the NFL, the wintry
conditions in Kansas City are not optimal for him to lead the pack this
weekend. With a solid receiving corps lining up against a below-average
secondary indoor, Goff could shock this prop bet world.
MY PICK: Jared
Goff
WHO WILL RECORD THE
MOST RECEIVING YARDS IN THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS?
FAVORITES
Michael Thomas
Tyreek Hill
Travis Kelce
Michael Thomas caught 12 of 16 passes for 171 yards and a
touchdown last weekend. Pro Football Focus said his matchup against the Rams
defensive secondary — a combination of Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib — is the
second-most favorable of the weekend. It's hard to make a case for the field
with the chilly conditions in Kansas City, Mahomes' inexperience in cold
weather and with the way the Rams receiving corps splinter targets, receptions
and yardage. Brees and Thomas are the Saints one-two passing game punch with
Kamara relieving him at times. I'm good with the pick at 2-to-1.
MY PICK: Thomas
WHO WILL RECORD THE MOST RUSHING YARDS IN THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS?
FAVORITES
Todd Gurley
Sony Michel
Damien William
Alvin Kamara
With New Orleans missing defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins
due to a season-ending injury last weekend, Todd Gurley and C.J. Anderson are
about to eat very well. Not only was Rankins an elite pass rusher, with eight
sacks this season, but he also was one of the Saints top run stoppers. Gurley
and Anderson just embarrassed the Cowboys rush defense, which ranked seventh at
stopping the run during the regular season. While the Saints ranked second
against the rush that was WITH Rankins healthy. At nearly 3-to-1 odds that
Gurley leads all running backs in rushing yards this weekend; I think an
interesting hedge bet is that Anderson keeps on thriving. The veteran running
back has averaged nearly 141 rush yards per game the past three weeks. He's
nearly 10-to-1 to lead running backs in rush yards this weekend. Hedge Gurley
with C.J.A.
MY Pick: Gurley
and Anderson
HOW MANY INTERCEPTIONS WILL THERE BE IN THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP
ROUND?
ODDS
Over: 3
Under: 3
We have two veteran and two novice playoff quarterbacks
competing in this weekend's conference championships. Granted, the veteran
kickers I placed faith in this time last week let me down, as Adam Vinatieri
missed some critical attempts. Perhaps experience is overrated in the playoffs?
The Patriots and Rams defense averaged 1.1 interceptions per
game this season, while the Chiefs and Saints average 0.9 and 0.8 INT-PG,
respectively. The conditions in Kansas City aren't optimal for an air show,
which leads me to think the UNDER is the play here.
MY BET: Under
WHO WILL HAVE MORE COMBINED PASSING, RUSHING AND RECEIVING YARDS IN THE
CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP?
FAVORITES
Mahomes and Williams
Brady and Michel
Just because the "Patriots to the Super Bowl" pick
is cliche and boring to some doesn't mean Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels
will forget how to put New England in the best possible position to win Sunday
night at Arrowhead.
The duo have proved time and time again that their offensive
scheme can beat opponents via death by a thousand cuts. This is why Brady and
Michel are such an intriguing pick. With the thought being that in
below-freezing temperatures, tempo will be slowed and that New England will
want to control the clock to keep Patrick Mahomes from finding a rhythm, the
Patriots offensive line needs to beat Kansas City's and Michel needs to attack
those running lanes as he did against the Chargers. This is possible in what I
expected will be a 25-plus touch game for the rookie running back.
MY PICK: Mahomes
and Williams
WILL THERE BE A FAKE PUNT ATTEMPT IN THE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP ROUND?
Yes
No
Saints head coach Sean Payton loves to use Swiss Army knife
Taysom Hill whenever possible. The back-up quarterback and gadget player
converted a fake punt just last weekend against the Eagles. He's dangerous
because he can pass or use his 6-foot-2, 225-pound frame to bowl defenders
over. On the flip side, the Rams feature Johnny Hekker who is arguably one of
the league's top passing punters. With NFL squads going for it on fourth down
so often around the middle of the field, the odds have never been better for
fake punts to occur on a weekly basis.
MY PICK: Yes
ANYTIME TOUCHDOWN
SCORER - RAMS AT SAINTS
FAVORITES
Gurley
Kamara
Michael Thomas
The favorites to score during the NFC championship game make
a lot of sense but come with heavy price tags. You'd have to risk $140 to win
$100 that Michael Thomas finds the end zone or $155 to win $100 if you think
Alvin Kamara hits pay dirt. Why not go against the grain and find some value
where the return is higher than the risk? Former Saints receiver Brandin Cooks
carved up his former team in Round 1 to the tune of six receptions for 114
yards and a touchdown. He may not post 100-plus yards, but I like him to add
six to the scoreboard.
MY Pick: Brandin
Cooks
ROBERT WOODS
RECEIVING YARDS
ODDS
OVER: 74.5
UNDER: 74.5 (-118)
The Rams possess so many above-average skill position
players, Woods sometimes gets lost in the mix. He averaged 76.2 receiving yards
per game during the regular season and caught six passes for 69 yards last
weekend. He's as consistent as they come and when New Orleans defensive backs
start to cheat up to stop Gurley and Anderson, watch Goff work the ball to
Woods in space. According to Pro Football Focus, Woods has the most favorable
matchup against opposing cornerback P.J. Williams.
MY PICK: OVER
JAMES WHITE +
PATRIOTS WIN PARLAY
Will White record 50+ receiving yards AND will the Patriots
win against the Chiefs
Odds
Yes
No
James White caught 15 passes on 17 targets for 97 yards
against the Chargers last weekend. He averaged 47 receiving yards per game
during the regular season. As much as I hate to sound like a broken record, the
weather conditions and game flow will impact how the Patriots prepare to upset
the Chiefs on their home turf. Coach Bill Belichick has used White in a lead
role during the postseason before, and it wouldn't shock me to see him go back
to the well again this Sunday.
I SAY: No
WHO SCORES MORE TDS - DAMIEN WILLIAMS OR SONY MICHEL?
Odds
Williams
Michel
Same Amount
New England does NOT want to get into a track meet with the
Chiefs defense. The Pats want long drives that chew up as much clock as
possible, like they did against the Chargers last weekend. This means a heavy
diet of James White and Sony Michel. When New England gets inside the Chiefs
10-yard line, watch for the rookie to finish the drive.
MY PICK: Williams
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