PACERS MUST FIND
WAY TO SLOW CELTICS' OFFENSE
Kyrie Irving and the Celtics will have their work cut out
for them against the resilient Pacers.
It's the underachievers vs. the overachievers in the No. 4-5
matchup in the Eastern Conference.
The Boston Celtics were the preseason favorites to win the
East and have been relatively healthy this season. They did have a better point
differential than they did last year, but a fourth-place finish is a
disappointment for a team with such talent, depth and versatility. The Celtics
can obviously make up for it with a run to The Finals, but to get there, they'd
likely have to win multiple games on the road, where they were 1-7 in last
year's postseason.
They'd first have to get through the Indiana Pacers, who
have proven themselves to be a tough out. All-Star Victor Oladipo played just
36 games this season (suffering a season-ending knee injury in January) and the
Pacers are in the same spot they were a year ago, thanks to a top-three defense
and a balanced offense.
WHAT WILL MATTER MOST IN THE CELTICS-PACERS SERIES?
Last year, as the No. 5 seed, the Pacers came close to
ending LeBron James' reign atop the Eastern Conference. In losing a seven-game
series, the Pacers outscored the Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points. The Celtics
came pretty close to knocking off the Cavs two rounds later.
Now, Boston and Indiana meet in the first round. The Pacers
are without Oladipo and the Celtics are suddenly
without Marcus Smart, who is expected to be out through the first
two rounds of the playoffs with a torn oblique muscle. The Celtics have the
talent to advance far enough to get Smart back, but success in this league is
about more than talent, and the Pacers are the team in this series that has
done more with what it has.
THREE THINGS TO
WATCH
1. HAVE THE CELTICS FIGURED THINGS OUT OVER THE LAST FEW
WEEKS? A starting lineup change – Aron Baynes in, Marcus Morris out –
seemed to spark a 5-1 stretch that included two wins over the Pacers. And in
163 total minutes with Baynes and Al Horford on the floor together, the Celtics
outscored their opponents by 18.5 points per 100 possessions. But the more important
development for the Celtics may have been Hayward averaging 16.9 points on 62
percent shooting over his last seven games. It's not clear that every Celtics
rotation player is comfortable in his role, but a confident and explosive
Hayward can make a big difference.
2. HOW HAVE THE PACERS SURVIVED WITHOUT VICTOR OLADIPO? By
continuing to defend and by taking care of business against bad teams. The
Pacers ranked eighth defensively (108.0 points allowed per 100 possessions)
after Oladipo was lost for the season. And after Feb. 1, they were 11-1 against
non-playoff teams. But Indiana was just 5-14 against playoff teams over
the last nine weeks, scoring just 106.7 points per 100 possessions in those 19
games. Nine of those 14 losses were within five points in the last five
minutes, but that's an area where their All-Star was missed. With Oladipo (who
shot 63 percent in the clutch), the Pacers were 11-4 in games that were within
five in the last five. Without him, they were 12-14.
3. HOW DO THE CELTICS REPLACE SMART? They don't.
There's nobody that can match Smart's combination of energy and physicality on
the perimeter. It was in late November when Smart's move into the starting
lineup, where he provided some balance, sparked an eight-game winning streak.
Jaylen Brown will likely start in Smart's place and provide a little more
offense, though Smart was actually the better 3-point shooter of the two this
season. Without Smart, the Celtics still have a solid, eight-man rotation. But
they'll probably need to depend on Semi Ojeleye or Brad Wanamaker for a few
minutes per game as a ninth man.
THE NUMBER TO KNOW
117.6 -- The Celtics scored 117.6 points per 100
possessions in their four games against the Pacers this season. That
was the most efficiently Boston scored against any of the other 15 teams that
made the playoffs and the most efficiently that any Eastern Conference opponent scored against
Indiana's third-ranked defense. Seven different Celtics averaged double-figures against the Pacers, and all of them
shot better than 50 percent in doing it. The Pacers' issues started in
transition, with the Celtics registering 26.8 fast break points per game
(with at least 22 in all four meetings), the most they averaged against any opponent and the most the Pacers allowed to any opponent. Overall, the
Celtics had the league's fifth most improved offense, scoring 4.5 more points per 100 possessions than they did last season.
MY PICK
The Pacers have been remarkably resilient in the wake of
losing their best player, and their starting lineup doesn't have any obvious
liabilities on defense for the Celtics to attack. But they've struggled to beat
good teams, win on the road, and close out games without Oladipo. The Celtics
have had issues with chemistry and consistency, and Smart will be missed. But
the regular season is a lot different from the playoffs, when a team can focus
on one opponent on both ends of the floor. Talent and depth should be enough to
get through to the conference semifinals. CELTICS IN 5.
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