Friday, April 12, 2019

FATAL FLAWS FOR ALL 16 NHL PLAYOFF TEAMS: ONE STAT THAT CAN SINK EVERYONE


Sixteen teams have made the 2019 Stanley Cup playoffs, but of course just one can hoist the trophy in June.
The other 15 will head home, getting an early start on the local golf course. We looked behind the numbers and found the most glaring statistic that would end each team's postseason run.
Note: These flaws are statistic-based. Overarching flaws, such as coaching or team chemistry or depth, aren't represented here. This is strictly the statistic-based weakness for each team heading into the playoffs.
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
FATAL NUMBER: minus-50:59 power-play/penalty-kill differential
The Bolts are a super team, so there's not much to nitpick here. You typically won't find a lot of weaknesses on a 62-win team. However, the Lightning does seem to find the penalty box quite a bit. They spent 50-plus more minutes down a man than on the advantage in 2018-19, and were third in the NHL in penalty-kill time. Their 3.57 minor penalties per 60 minutes was the highest in the league, and three players had more than 60 minutes in penalties. Sure, it helps that the team has the league's top penalty kill, but taking needless penalties in the playoffs can sink a team's hopes.
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS
FATAL NUMBER: 15.4 percent power play
The Jackets' weak power play won't do them any favors in a tough first-round matchup with Tampa Bay. Only Cam Atkinson and Artemi Panarin have five power-play goals or more this season. Since the All-Star break, the team's 14.3 percent mark is even lower than it was to start the campaign, going 11-for-77 over that span.
BOSTON BRUINS
FATAL NUMBER: 2.65 even-strength goals per 60 minutes
It was actually pretty difficult to find a numbers-based issue with this team, at least relative to the rest of the playoff pack. But the Bruins do struggle a little in scoring when all things are even, with 18.2 percent of their goals coming on the power play. David Pastrnak had 17 on the man advantage, compared to 21 at even strength. It's not necessarily a bad thing, but if the power plays run dry, Boston will have to find a way to score more frequently at evens.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
FATAL NUMBER: 25.0 scoring chances allowed per game
According to Natural Stat Trick, no playoff team allowed more scoring opportunities than the Maple Leafs this season. The midseason acquisition of Jake Muzzin helped a little bit, but the defense remains exploitable. Toronto's 33.1 shots allowed per game was No. 8 in the NHL, and despite decent goaltending from Frederik Andersen, it gave up more than three goals per game. The Leafs already have a tall task in stopping the Bruins in Round 1 before potentially having to navigate the Lightning. They can't afford to hand over scoring chances.
WASHINGTON CAPITALS
FATAL NUMBER: 78.9 percent penalty kill
The Capitals aren't getting a ton of buzz heading into Round 1, despite being the defending champs. And while they deserve some more recognition, their penalty kill is concerning. They allowed 55 goals while down at least a man in 2018-19. Of players with at least 200 minutes on the penalty kill, Matt Niskanen's 8.7 goals against per 60 minutes was third in the league, according to Natural Stat Trick.
CAROLINA HURRICANES
FATAL NUMBER: 7.2 even-strength shooting percentage
The Canes sit 16th in the NHL in scoring, yet their shooting percentage at even strength is the fourth worst in the league. Sebastian Aho hits the back of the net a mediocre 8.7 percent of the time when all things are even, but Justin Williams checks in at 7.0, Jordan Staal is at 6.0 and Andrei Svechnikov scores 6.1 percent of the time. Those are some of the lower marks in the league.
NEW YORK ISLANDERS
FATAL NUMBER: 47.9 even-strength Corsi for percentage
The Islanders are this year's "Corsi fraud" team. Their Corsi is the sixth worst in the league, and the worst among playoff squads. In close situations, it jumps slightly to 48.3 percent. The team put together a truly magical season in Year 1 AT (after Tavares), but controlling possession is critical in the playoffs. Only one player who skated in at least 50 games this season broke 50 percent in Corsi for percentage: Mathew Barzal. What's more, the Isles begin just 47.7 percent of their even-strength shifts in the offensive zone.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
FATAL NUMBER: .452 win percentage in one-goal games
Though many of the same players are on the team, these aren't quite the same Penguins of the past. The Avalanche are the only playoff team that struggles more in closing down close games, and perhaps part of it is Pittsburgh's mediocre .596 win percentage when scoring first. It will need to find its killer instinct, and goaltender Matt Murray will have to get hot after a middle-of-the-road campaign.
CALGARY FLAMES
FATAL NUMBER: 1,233 hits
No, hits aren't wildly important. Finesse teams can win -- the Chicago Blackhawks can attest to that. But generating hits and playing physically has a part in wearing down opponents in the spring. It's a long run to a Stanley Cup, so physicality shouldn't be overlooked; unfortunately, Calgary is dead last in the NHL in hits. The Flames also tie the Buffalo Sabres for last in the league in blocked shots, and only the Florida Panthers turn the puck over more.
COLORADO AVALANCHE
FATAL NUMBER: .290 win percentage in one-goal games
No team wins fewer close games. Lacking the ability to shut the door on a team will surely come up again in Round 1. In fact, the Avs tied for the most overtime losses this season. Yes, that's a different game at 3-on-3, but it still shows the team's inability to seal the deal. The one player to keep an eye on, though? Gabriel Landeskog was tied for second in the league with nine game-winning goals.
NASHVILLE PREDATORS
FATAL NUMBER: 12.9 percent power play
That's the worst mark in the league, and it certainly contributes to the Preds' No. 19 scoring rate. Even at home, Nashville sits at just 12.6 percent success rate on the man advantage. Only four players on the Predators have double-digit power-play points, and Filip Forsberg is the only one with at least five goals on the man advantage. Oh, and the team's first-round opponent is a top-five penalty killer.
DALLAS STARS
FATAL NUMBER: 2.55 goals per game
Only the lowly Anaheim Ducks and Los Angeles Kings scoreless. That's not what you want when you are set to face tough Central Division goaltending, including Pekka Rinne in Round 1. The Stars score on just 6.9 percent of their even-strength shots. Beyond the trio of Tyler SeguinAlexander Radulov and Jamie Benn, only four players have at least 10 goals, and none of those four have more than 15. Dallas can't lean on Ben Bishop all the way through the playoffs.
WINNIPEG JETS
FATAL NUMBER: .743 win percentage when leading after two periods
That doesn't sound terrible, but it's the fourth-worst rate in the NHL and by far the worst in the playoff pool. Winnipeg allowed nine games to slip away in the third period. The Jets can't afford to let a hot team like the Blues back into games. Part of the problem? Their 33.4 shots allowed per game is the highest for the 16 playoff-bound teams.
ST. LOUIS BLUES
FATAL NUMBER: .065 win percentage when trailing after two periods
Here's the good news for the Jets: Despite closing the season on a tear, the Blues haven't solved the come-from-behind wins puzzle yet. They won just two of 31 games in which they entered the third period behind on the scoreboard. That's second worst in the NHL, and the team's .158 win percentage when down after one period is also in the bottom five. For as excellent as Jordan Binnington has been, his .875 save percentage when trailing after two periods leaves a lot to be desired.
SAN JOSE SHARKS
FATAL NUMBER: 3.15 goals against per game
Perhaps more than any other statistic discussed here, the Sharks' goal-prevention woes are glaring. They allow more goals than any other playoff team. Neither Martin Jones nor Aaron Dell has a save percentage north of .900, putting San Jose's 5-on-5 save percentage at .897, the worst in the league. There's not too much to break down here. The team is obviously one of the league's best, but you can't survive four playoff series with goaltending that far below average.
VEGAS GOLDEN KNIGHTS
FATAL NUMBER: .794 high-danger save percentage
This one is a bit strange, but according to Natural Stat Trick, the Knights' save percentage when facing high-danger shots is the fifth lowest in the NHL, and trails only the aforementioned Sharks among the teams still playing. Jonathan Quick was the only starting goalie with a lower high-danger save percentage than Marc-Andre Fleury's .791 this season. Can he transform back into the brick wall of the 2018 postseason? He'll need to be superb against San Jose's offense.


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