NUGGETS HOPING TO
ACE FIRST PLAYOFF TEST IN YEARS
The Spurs must find a way to counteract Nikola Jokic's court
vision and scoring.
This series is a pair of contrasts, with the Nuggets making
the playoffs for the first time since 2013, while the Spurs haven't missed the
playoffs in more than two decades.
That doesn’t mean the Nuggets will necessarily suffer from
stage fright and the Spurs will remain poised at all times, though. Although
only Paul Millsap brings significant playoff experience in Denver, this team
has kept a high profile all season. The Spurs’ leading scorer, DeMar DeRozan,
must battle his past playoff demons that partly led to the Toronto Raptors
trading him to San Antonio last summer.
WHAT WILL MATTER MOST IN THE NUGGETS-SPURS SERIES?
It all starts with Nuggets center Nikola Jokic and whether
he can roust the troops with timely passes and assorted trickery, which makes
him the most unique post player in basketball. "The Joker" recently
said the Nuggets still have a chip on their shoulder from missing out on the
playoffs last season on the final day. Well, their time has finally come.
If Jokic and Jamal Murray are causing fits, this will be a
very frustrating series for the Spurs. They'll have to throw double teams at
one or both of them and risk getting exposed by others like Millsap or Will
Barton.
THREE THINGS TO
WATCH
1. Can Gary Harris flip the switch and become a factor
for Denver? It’s been a perplexing and disappointing season for the
Nuggets’ guard, who has taken a step back in his development. Harris was
groomed for a star role, yet injuries and mediocre play have intervened. His
scoring average is down nearly five points and he seems trapped in a fog at
times.
2. How can the Spurs counter the size advantage by the
Nuggets? The only functional big man the Spurs can throw at Jokic, Millsap
and Mason Plumlee is All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. It’ll be up to Jakob Poeltl to
chip in whenever possible. The best tactic for the Spurs may be to create
offensive mismatches and force the Nuggets to play small ball.
3. Will the Nuggets sweat much if Jamal Murray isn’t
clicking? No, because of Malik Beasley and Monte Morris. These unsung
guards have impressed all season and at times were Denver’s best backcourt.
Beasley and Morris give Denver a depth advantage against a team that
traditionally brings a deep rotation.
THE NUMBER TO KNOW
13.1 -- The Nuggets were 13.1 points per 100 possessions better at home than they
were on the road. That was the league's biggest home-road differential. The
second biggest (10.5 points per 100 possessions) belonged to the Spurs, who
were 1-11 on the road against the other seven Western Conference playoff teams,
allowing almost 120 points per 100 possessions over those 12 games.
For Denver, the bigger difference in its performance was on
offense; it scored 7.9 more points per 100 possessions at home (116.0 -- third best in the league) than they did on the road (108.1
-- 16th). For San Antonio, the difference was more about its
defense; it allowed 7.6 fewer points per 100 possessions at home (106.7 - 10th) than it did on the road (114.3 - 25th). The home team won all four games in the season series, though only one of the four games
-- the Nuggets' 28-point win on April 3 -- wasn't close.
MY PICK
There’s plenty riding on this series for the Nuggets. They
ripped through much of the season, staying either near or at the top in
the West. Losing in the first round would be a major letdown. Spurs Coach Gregg
Popovich is gonna make them sweat it out. NUGGETS IN 6.
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